Safehaven
usd/jpy safe have to 111.000When there is uncertainty around the wordl people tend to use their money into safe havens like eur/jpy and usd/jpy
I think it's a nice oppurtunity to trade on this pair because also there will probably be a fed cut, so people can put their money on safe havens.
Don't put your money when there will be a recession in US because this won't work as hard as gold do. during finacial crisis usd/jpy en eur/jpy like in 2008 falls heavily.
Have a nice tradiing week and use always demo before you trade in real account and with small lots.
TLT LongTLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall.
For this trade, I advise picking up TMF (x3 leverage) with a stop anywhere from 28.00 to 26.60. I also recommend scaling into the position with 2 or 3 batches comprising your total allocation that you are willing to invest.
USDCHF Likely to Test Parity After Trendline Break!Please check the chart for entry and stop details. shall there be any updates i will provide them in the thread below. please note that there is detailed technical and fundamental analysis that are incorporated into this trade of which majority are not visible. Cheers
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors!
Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by:
AUDJPY
- Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do
- Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures
GBPCHF
- Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing
- UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Gold - Another Push To The UpsideFor this setup we have:
- Elliott Wave minor wave 2 completion and a potential of a minute wave 2 completion (completing within the range shown on the chart) once complete will push price violently to the upside.
- Middle of Elliott Wave channel as support.
- Minor 50.0 Fibonacci retracement (Wave 2 could complete within the range shown on the chart).
Overall, there is still a lot of potential for Gold to the upside, due to the US-China trade war uncertainties and a manufacturing recession in the US which was shown to be in the contraction territory for the last 2 months. Therefore, I believe that there will be another flow to safe havens which makes Gold a great set up both technically and fundamentally.
SL: 1465.00
TP1: 1536.00
TP2: 1557.00
TP3: 1585
Enjoy!
XLU Buyers hopping in again?The defensive utilities sector has been on a strong uptrend since 2018 as markets trembled with uncertainty and bulls threatened to buck. After some profit-taking at 65 dollars, there is reason to believe that there may be another leg up as buyers seem to be returning with bullish price actions observed last trading session.
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCHF - Another Fed Cut?, BoJo's Plan Falls FlatIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #USDCHF
#GBPUSD moves on:
- BoJo plan optimism on Commons
- BoJo plan falling flat on Good Friday agreement threat
- BoJo plan creates new borders, still seen as backstop
#USDCHF looking bearish on:
- Weak ISM NMI
- Increased chances of rate cuts
- HIgher fears of recession
All eyes on NFP today! Can watch live here: www.orbex.com
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
XAUUSD: 4H Channel Up signals a Buy Entry. Target above 1,550.Gold suffered a set back this week but was technically expected as it was rejected on the 1,535 top of the Symmetrical Resistance Zone. It did manage to hit our previous 1,528 target as seen below:
This pull back has created the conditions for a Channel Up on 4H and as long as 1D remains neutral (RSI = 51.051, MACD = 6.710, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) the upside will be supported. Notice how there is a potential for a Golden Cross on 4H. Last time that happened was in late May right before Gold had bottomed at 1,260/70 and started its relentless Bull Run that broke through the 5 year 1,370 Resistance.
These parameters are more than enough for us to make us enter a new long trade with 1,550 - 1,557 as our Target Zone.
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ORBEX USDCAD, USDCHF Under Pressure In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #USDCAD and #USDCHF
#CAD Supported by:
- By Drone Attack and #WTI surge
- Weaker Dollar
#CHF Supported by:
- Weaker Dollar
- Safe-haven flows on tradewar headlines
*Should be weaker following #SNB's downward inflation outlook revision
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
XAUUSD tapping in to 1487 soon!!Since the start of september we've seen how Gold has undergone a correction after reaching maximums that it didn't touch since 2013. This strong selling that started around 1557 has been mainly due to the fact that there has been an increase in optimism in US-China trade talks, which has been heavily influencing the price of gold during the last months.
1. First and foremost, price had a bad time trying to break the 4h support (now 4h resistance), until a strong bearish engulfing candle managed it.
2. After breaking this zone of sensitivity, price came down to touch the weekly support, bouncing during the last days to retest our 4h resistance.
3. Today we saw how euro negative news pushed price to the upside, breaking the 4h resistance zone and managing to touch our monthly resistance. However, this only lasted a few mintues as selling pressure affected price inmediately, leaving a strong bearish wick, and with the bears managing to break back again the 4h support. This symbolizes that bears are right now in control of gold and it is worth trying theses shorts!!
Tp: weekly support, around 1487.
Sl: a bit above our 4h resistance zone, around 1411
NZDJPY ENTERING LONG NOW!!This setup on NDJPY looks like a fantastic long opportunity worth trying to catch a great bunch of pips.
1. Over the last weeks it has been following a downtrend, due to the strength that the JPY undertook, caused by economic uncertainty, US-China conflicts, and the RBNZ even lowering further interest rates.
2. However, since the start of september, we can see how this pair has started to gain strength, recovering from the losses and pushing heavily to the upside.
3. This is due to greater optimism in future US-China coversations, causing JPY to loose that strength it had gained.
4. Technically, looking at this daily chart, we can see how price has been able to break to the upside the monthly resistance (now monthly support). Looking at the 4h chart, price retested this zone before pushing again to the upside, signalling us that price could come back again to retest again that monthly resistance around 72.650 - 74.300.
We have a very juicy 1:3.5 risk-reward ratio.
Tp: where the next monthly resistance zone starts, around 72.650
Sl: around 68.360
GOOD LUCK!!
USDCHF SHORT TRADEFollowing the previous impulse, we can see now price creating a correction to the supply zone. therefor I'm taking this opportunity to go short. look for rejection candle before placing the trade.
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LamchiuFX
Calling CHFJPY shorts soonCHFJPY shorts could be soon activated. Stay patient and lets explain the upcoming opportunity:
1. We are able to observe that since september 21 2018 a downward trend has been forming, being respected at every touch. This shows us that the trend is clear, not looking for anything else rather than shorts.
2. Price managed to break the weekly resistance, retesting it and falling with strength to touch the next weekly support.
3. Since then, price has been consolidating between these 2 zones , respecting the downward trendline.
4. Finally, last week price broke the weekly support (now weekly resistance), so what we are expecting is a retest of this zone to recover from this strong selling. After this, we would like to see a 4 hour, or, preferably a daily, bearish engulfing candle to confirm our entry. Patience is key guys.
Fundamentally we see a week CHF due to certain aspects of its economy weakening and a strong JPY due to safe haven flows during the last weeks due to global uncertainty.
Stop loss: slightly above latest daily lower high, around 108.500-108.550
Take profit: monthly support, around 103.600
Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen.
The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa)
Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price)
My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.