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Safehaven

SAFEHAVEN YEN Aiming to Test the Lower Trendline Of the Channel Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in a channel which is in a current uptrend! However a small pause is likely to occur before the long term price finds the right direction to trend again. Looking at the above 4hr charts, there is a rough head and shoulders pattern that is present and a break of the neckline which also happens to be at the level of 4hr 50 EMA could signal a slight correction towards the ascending trendline of the channel. If a break does occur i will potentially wait for the price to breach both 4hr and daily 50 EMA before going short on this pair. i shall provide any update for entry criteria shall the technical and fundamental picture meet. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
$USDCAD Safe Place?Following a nasty Jan 2-9 downtrend the $USDCAD has shown a rally since hitting that very strong support (blue line). This rally has lifted it to +2.16% for the month. Often regarded as a safe haven currency I can see major players jumping in on this really low price and soft rally. with a 200 day moving day average of 130866 as a solid stop loss this might be a great place to earn for a few days. We will keep close watch on the EMPLOYMENT data coming up on THURSDAY. HAPPY TRADING
Long
by Buffetbaby
EURCHF May Continue Or Change The Trend !EURCHF has been in a decline for the past several weeks. The trend may just continue or it may change its course as the price approaches crucial support level of 1.11000. Currently looking at the weekly charts (the main chart) the price is trending down just shy of the crucial 1.11000 level. Ina few weeks the price is expected to reach that crucial support and then from there on it may either make trend change and aim for the above red line resistance levels or it may continue to head south where other support lies. Have a look at the daily chart in the below snapshot. The price action has developed a descending trendline and it has been respected on numerous occasions. A further confluence factor can be intensified for LONG trade if the trendline breaks together with the resistance of 1.15000. Its advisable to enter LONG when the 1.15000 level is broken and retested so we can get a better risk to reward ratio. On the flip side should the crucial support of 1.110000 break then it may or may NOT follow the current descending trend!. However the main thing that needs to happen is that the support needs to be broken convincingly so our probability can increase. All in all its a matter of being patient and let the price action play out so we can take a more risk to reward favored opportunity when the right time and circumstances appear. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade signal i will post them in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
H&S Pattern Complete On 4Hr EURJPY Chart. Await Trendline Break!The head and shoulders pattern on 4 Hour chart is completed although not that clearly. But it certainly shows that the price is likely to head Northwards. The neckline has been broken rather unconvincingly and together with the neckline lies the 4 hour 50 EMA which can often strongly act as potential dynamic support and resistance. For our trading odds to increase, the price needs to break this EMA sharply to the upside. Furthermore just above the EMA lies another trendline that has been respected more than 2 times, therefore taking this trade LONG at the moment might not be the smartest of ideas as it can easily reverse. Have a look at the main chart that displays all the above chart pattern and trendline. Its advisable for the trendline to break so we can finally enter a LONG trade. Our target would be the DAILY 50 EMA that lies at the region of 127.000 level. Have a look at the above daily snapshot of the chart. it shows the price is confined in a triangle after the flash crash that took place a few days ago. it has clearly respected the triangle trendline and as it seems the price is showing further evidence that its headed up after rejecting the lower trendline of the triangle. Shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this is just the analysis behind this trade setup although it goes deeper than this i have just put some important technical picture only. cheers and happy trading
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF looking to Break High Or Low. All eyes on Trade Talks!As the trade talks begin today among the two largest economies in the world, this pair is looking at the outcome carefully. Any decision either good or bad can make this pair trade sharply. The Franc and JPY Often act as safe haven FX pairs when traders apply the risk aversion effect. GOLD also acts as a safe haven commodity too, but since switzerland's FRANC is backed by more than 75% of GOLD reserves its no surprise that FRANC acts as a stable currency. Looking at the current chart of this pair the price seems to be rangebound in a weekly timeframe. the current price action seems to be forming an ascending trendline, furthermore as we head up a crucial resistance of 1.00500 can be found and should the pair break the resistance we can opt to go LONG and should it break the trendline we can opt to go SHORT. I feel the outcome of any of the above scenarios is purely based on the trade talks but i feel more confident in taking this pair SHORT as it would be backed by the claims that the FED will likely not meet the rate raising target this year. Nevertheless, this a swing trade opportunity that i am watching closely and shall there be any developments i will be posting the update under this thread. I will also be looking to day trade this pair but i will need the trade talks to settle down and give clear direction as to where this pair is headed. be mindful that this week we also have the FED minute meeting release which might hide some important clues
by FX618Analysis
Safe Haven YEN Stuck in a Triangle After Flash Crash!Had the FED kept on raising the rates, this pair would have shot higher and higher, however the outlook for 2019 does not look good for the USD as the FED come under increasing pressure from the US president. Currently according to the projections of dot plot the FED plane to raise the rates 2 times this year, however this may not even happen due to many factors. The flash crash that happened a few days ago was triggered due to the risk aversion by the market players which left the USDJPY trapped in a triangle. The price may break to the either side and target the red line support and resistance as indicated in the charts. its advised to not make any move until the pair breaks the triangle on the weekly charts to either side. The fate of this pair is balanced on numerous things including the trade talks between china and the US. Should the talks go well and both parties can come to a stable agreement the pair would likely accelerate to the upside. On the flipside, if talks do not go good for both parties, expect this pair to break to the downside. depending on what happens then we can place a swing trade accordingly. If you wish to day trade, then its advisable for the flash crash to settle and form clear price action that can support claims based on technical analysis. at the moment on the daily charts and 4 hour chart the price action is forming but it is still not clear. the target to day trade would be based on the either side of the triangle trendline. It remains to be seen what will happen to this pair fundamentally in the coming days. shall there be any updates i will post them here
by FX618Analysis
Is it time to hedge stock holdings with an investment in gold? Lagging and volatile global stocks, a strengthening US dollar, and prospects of slowed interest rate hikes combine to create a potentially bullish outlook for gold prices. From its value of USD$2,925.51 on October 3rd, 2018, the S&P 500 has fallen 10.01% to USD$2,632.56/share. Over that same time period, the price of gold has appreciated 1.69% to USD$1,223.38/ounce. A continued downturn in US stocks coupled with a downturn in global stocks will work to potentially drive further appreciation of gold prices. Current high levels of inflation, as indicated by growth in the US consumer price index and producer price index in 2018, should also work to create a favorable environment for gold prices. The United States has seen consumer price index and producer price index growth above 2% for every month of 2018 -- the last time these indicators observed growth in excess of 2% over 10 consecutive months was from June 2011 through April 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.84%, and from May 2011 through March 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.42% respectively. Strength in the US dollar also supports a bullish environment for gold prices. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s current value of 96.9920 is at the highest level seen since June 2017. Historically, gold prices diverge from the value of the US dollar amid a downturn in the latter. Prospects for deaccelerated interest rate hikes in 2019 by the US Federal Reserve also bolsters a long-term bull case for gold prices. A slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed will likely spark higher inflation of the US dollar, which may cause investors to increase gold holdings to hedge against inflation. While indicators like a strengthening US dollar, volatile global stocks, and high inflation combine to form a bullish environment for gold, supply and demand levels for the precious metal tell a different story. According to GoldHub, supply levels of gold have held steady since 2010 while real demand for gold (by the technology and jewelry industry) has trailed off. Although the current macroeconomic environment appears favorable for an investment in gold, gold supply and demand levels actually work against this thesis. Investors seeking to hedge their stock holdings with an investment in gold should tread cautiously and plan for at least a 1-year holding period. What do you all think about a potential investment in gold? Leave your comments below! We would love to engage in discussion and hear what everyone has to think.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Quantamize
Safe Haven - add dividends REIT sectorReal Estate sector has shown to be safe haven and not oversold sector to other stock sectors, which were way oversold to value. I give thanks today for understanding enough, but still expect growth here. Mid-term stocks usually do well in ensuing 6 mo. period, however during bearish times a safe haven is a consideration. If you have another sector, make it a conversation. FOREX, Crypto, and calls/puts would be only other if considered a sector. Does anyone have link for history of when shorting (calls/puts) was created and why? Please comment @pokethebear.
SP:S5REAS
by Pokethebear
SAFE HAVEN BUYING? TAKE A LOOK AT USDJPYWith the recent turmoil in the UK and Europe we are seeing a buying of safe havens currently this includes precious metals such as Gold and Silver. JPY is also the currency safe haven and as we can see currently the JPY is getting stronger after breaking our of the daily supporting trendline. If investors feel the need to buy the safe haven currency we could see prices here decline further back into the key support of 111.75. We are keeping an eye on the 4hr charts for pullbacks to previous lows to get involved.
Short
by peterthinkhuge
Gold to bounce from strong support - Uptrend in playThe Gold price is currently sitting around the 1215 support level - we are likely to see a a strong trend continuation from this level if we are able to break above 1220. I believe the recent fall in the price has been a simple market correction, so my previous ideas on this commodity are still valid. However, if the price is to break the 1215 level, we are likely to see it settle at 1210 and 1205 support levels. Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading market instruments. You can manage your losses by using smart risk management. Identify what your entry, Take Profit and Stop Loss levels will be before you enter a trade. Stick to your trading plan, no matter the market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by StirlingBishop
2
HG1! Is Copper ready to make a move?HG HG1! Copper has been bottoming for quite some time. Economic trends are plumbing/housing, electronics, and EV vehicles, so let's step back and review. * Oversupply for quite some time. * Copper prices are historically peak in December. * Housing/construction build rates for SF/MF/5+units is steady Yr/Yr for 5-yr and slight growth if any. * Electronics is in steep decline from overstock parts and US-China trade war * Electric vehicles are the new growth at 150+ lb. / vehicle for motor windings for copper, trend to continue as EV Class 8 heavy trucks will use 300+ lb. / truck (TESLA/NAV) * Current chart showing upward movement from 618fibretracement to 500fibretracement as positive. Maybe a micro trend without larger scope of current global economy, but something to watch for safe haven opportunities. VIX The yuan hit a fresh 21-month low against the U.S. dollar Thursday, and the Shanghai Composite Index has lost about a quarter of its value so far in 2018. ASX:KRC NSE:HINDCOPPER ASX:NZC OTC:CPPMF AMEX:COPX NYSE:SCCO ASX:CCZ TSX:NCU FWB:COQ OTC:HDRSF CCJ
COMEX:HG1!
by Pokethebear
CHFJPY (H4): Retracement (Long) Likely to HappenCHFJPY Timeframe: H4 Direction: Long Confluences for Trade: - Strong Bullish Engulfing Candle - Break of Trendline in H4 (Established since Sept 2018) - Hovering around 50% Fibo levels of previous uptrend move - Narrowing gap between 8EMA and 50EMA - SL Levels is placed below the M/T Trendline (since May 2018) and 61% Fibo levels of previous uptrend move However Stochastic is showing H4 is around Overbought conditions, you may want to consider to wait till the Stochastics re-balances itself before entering the trade. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Anywhere around Area of Interest (113.00 - 113.80) SL: 112.17 TP: 115.95 RR: Approximately 2.21 (Depending on Entry Levels) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Long
by weekendanalyst
USDCHF - Stocks Plunge, Demand for Safe Haven, Reversal SignalsStocks across the New York market, the European and Asia market plunges, especially the U.S. stocks which seen plunged the most yesterday. This in itself means an increase for safe haven asset, and certainly, we have seen the yen rallied, followed by Swiss Franc. The dollar is seen having trouble again to dominate the bull market as it found strong resistant at 96. Therefore, selling the dollar and buying a safe haven asset seems to be the best course of action. USDJPY has already plunged more than 200 pips from its previous high, whereas USDCHF has only just begun reversing. The price is now retracing towards the bottom of a previous range between 0.9550 and 0.9900, and thus I find it a good price to short.
Short
by AlgoVenture
1
Conoco Phillips cranking oil and gas - 1M chartCOP riding the cheap energy supply of LNG with technology and gas sales (LNG, CNG). Looks like good buy based on trend and MACD for next year for those looking for safe haven. Dividend could be 4x higher. 1.5% Dividend LNG DLNG SHI NEXT TELL CLNE LNG expands to 600 x its volume to make natural gas, so as compressed liquid cheap to transport provided storage insulation, most good for 6-8 mo. LNG offers 30% reduction in CO2 over coal and oil energy fuel sources, so developing countries will be using for forseeable decade until solar, wind, EV, hydro, wavepower are utilized. EU will be sourcing more LNG per recent trade discussions. Safe from US-CH. China just signed agreement with QATAR Gas and another buy if it goes IPO. QATAR wanted to be more public since 2014, but haven't seen it.
NYSE:COP
by Pokethebear
FED Rate Hike Expectations Likely To Decide The Fate Of USDJPY!Talk about the safe haven FX pairs. The JPY, CHF & GOLD have long been carrying these characteristics. Here we focus on the JPY & the USDJPY pair. Recently everything in the market is being USD driven! and looking at this pair, it has been so much vulnerable to the fundamental factors affecting the USD such as the ongoing trade war and the FED rate hike proposals. In my opinion the technical analysis at this stage of the market can only be done when the fundamental factors start to clear up. JPY has long been regraded as a SAFE HAVEN asset, however with recent tensions in the world, the largest reserve currency (USD) has been gaining its own reputation as the safe haven pair as investors see the world's largest economy doing well. So with that said, since the economy is doing so well the FED are expected to hike rates 2 more times this year and if they hike the rate as expected (although the market have already priced in the 4 hikes) the USD is still expected to get much stronger. This will in turn lead to the appreciation of the USD against basket of all major currencies!. NOW COMING TO THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THIS PAIR Looking at the main weekly chart here, it can be seen the long term wedge was violated and retested!. the pair is showing signs of trending upwards however a crucial monthly resistance seems to be blocking this from happening (112.000 level). For this pair to trend upwards the monthly candle needs to close above the 112.000 level and then only then we can decide to go LONG on this pair!. Trading directly into the resistance might be a very risky choice and its not recommended at all On the flip side, to confirm the price has indeed rejected the 112.00 level, the wedge developing on the weekly charts needs to break and retested in order to take this pair SHORT To add to the confluence to the downside, the daily chart is showing a strong channel developing and the break and retest of the channel would confirm the pair is headed down. In short, the pairs direction is in the hands of the FED and other minor fundamental factors. Depending on the fundamental outcome either one of the scenarios is likely to take place and make this pair to trend again. thank you for your support, please follow me if you like my analysis. if there are any signals pertaining to this thread i will update in the near future but patience is required here
by FX618Analysis
JPY or CHF: Which safe haven FX To Trade During Market Turmoil ? The JPY and the CHF are both well-established safe havens and from time to time other currencies can exhibit safe haven behaviors. In 2017, this was periodically true of the EUR. That said, this year’s return of concerns about Italy’s fiscal restraint is a reminder that the Eurozone’s crisis years are too recent to allow the single currency to adopt the mantle of a true safe haven, despite the region’s huge current account surplus. The USD has only a flirtatious claim as a store of value. Its huge liquidity, importance as a reserve currency and the role of Treasury paper as a safe haven asset means that the USD has strong safe haven links. However, the US’s budget and current account deficits significantly undermine any claim that the USD is a true safe haven currency. Since the SNB maintains the use of FX intervention as a policy tool, it is reasonable to assume that the JPY may be the safe haven currency preferred by many investors. While the CHF may be more reactive to news from Russia and Europe, the JPY can appear more sensitive to news stemming from Asia. The JPY responded to worrying news regarding N. Korea’s nuclear capability in the early part of 2017. Interestingly, the JPY seemed to become less sensitive to N. Korean related news into last summer, despite the worsening tone of the headlines. We have linked this to the broad strengthening of overall risk appetite during 2017 as world growth beat expectations. The role of the JPY and CHF as safe havens has long since provided a problem for both the SNB and the BoJ, since unwanted currency strength has contributed to deflationary pressures. Risk appetite rather than interest rate differentials will continue to be overriding driver of the value of safe haven currencies in times of heightened market tensions. Broadly speaking, due to the risk of FX intervention from the SNB the JPY is favored over the CHF as a safe haven currency.
by FX618Analysis
Will The AUDCHF Break The Neckline of H & S ?This symbol features the Australian Dollar - Swiss Franc cross pair. While less popular than the AUDJPY cross, the AUD/CHF has similar characteristics in that it can be used as a carry trade. Some may also view this pair as a reflection of risk sentiment due to the risk-on nature of the Australian currency and the safe-haven characteristics of the Swiss franc. Source of above information: www.dailyfx.com There is no doubt that the head and shoulders pattern have been forming on multiple currency pairs especially the EUR pairs, more specifically the EURUSD. Today the long standing Head And Shoulders pattern on the EURUSD should be completed as the bears are on rampage!. If the EURUSD tumbles in the coming weeks to record LOWS then we should see multiple safehaven FX pairs most notably the CHF and JPY gain momentum as well. This has everything to do with the currency correlation when trading. Many traders are watching the EURUSD pair at the moment and a potential break to the downside is almost imminent in the coming week and therefore we take a look at the AUDCHF pair in this part of the analysis!. It has rejected the crucial resistance level on multiple occasions (see the blue lines) and its looking to head down. Currently the one of the most prominent confluence factor to support this fact is the formation of the H & S Pattern that is on the verge of completion and the only thing holding is the break of the neckline! If and only if the weekly candle closes below this neckline (the red line on the chart) we will potentially see the pressure build up to the downside in the coming weeks. Personally for the entry criteria to be met, i would want the weekly candle to close below the neckline and the support level, followed by a slight retracement on the daily charts or 4 hours charts before i can enter this trade SHORT. The TP target is also favorable as the next crucial support level lies far down at 0.7000 psychological level! It remains to be seen what happens in the coming week and this pair is highly dependent the EURUSD head and shoulders pattern. Personally the EURUSD is a great trade to take but i am already LONG on the USD (NZDUSD). See the related link. Due to this AUDCHF represents the best opportunity to trade if you already have an open position on the USD, Stay tuned for any updates and signals. Follow me for more indepth analysis and signals. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
7
Will CADCHF Resume It's Downtrend By Breaking The Wedge ? This is the forex quote for the Canadian Dollar against the Swiss Franc. In this quote, the value of one CAD (the 'base currency') is quoted in terms of CHF (the 'counter currency'). The Canadian Dollar is often considered to be a 'commodity currency' because Canada exports a large amount of natural resources, notably oil. In practical terms, this makes it sensitive to the ebb and flow of trends in investors' overall outlook on global economic growth. Meanwhile, Switzerland's has a long-standing history as a safe haven and harbor for foreigners looking to house their wealth in a private banking system. As a pairing embodying the relationship between a growth-linked, higher yielding currency and a safety-geared, low yielding one, CAD/CHF is a notable carry trade vehicle. SOURCE OF ABOVE: www.dailyfx.com The CADCHF is forming an ascending wedge on the daily TF as evident on the main chart. For this formation to be broken the daily candle must break and close below the wedge. To add to this the price must also break the EMA 50 in the process and close below it. Once this is completed the price will potentially look to target the ascending trend line below the wedge (see the main chart) Furthermore, looking at the weekly chart for this pair the price has been ranging for quite some time now and is potentially looking to test the lower part of the rectangle (range). As said before the CAD pair is highly affected by OIL prices since its a commodity currency and on the other the CHF is a safe haven pair. All in all its a high probability trade and i will wait for the criteria to be met before i decide to execute on this pair. I will keep you updated on any signals should the criteria meet. Keep in my there are other CAD PAIRS forming some possible trade scenarios and i would like to remind you traders i do not risk trading the same currency even if its different pair. i will see what currency pair would give me the best RISK TO REWARD and the least path of resistance or support before i execute. FOLLOW ME IF YOU LIKE THE ANALYSIS. stay tuned for any signals cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis