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Safehavens

The Coronavirus Vaccine: Best Trading Tips for GoldGold has not been nearly as affected by the risk-on frenzy as bonds were. In fact, it has been maintaining a range from 1924 to 1964. These are both technical levels. There are some Fibonacci levels in between so watch for support or resistance at these. The fact that gold is maintaining a $40 range which is quite narrow for this product, suggests a breakout may follow soon. This narrow range is not likely to last, so keep your eye on the upper and lower bounds of the channel for a possible breakout either way. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish, but this could just be because we are testing the lower bound of the range right now. The level 1925 may provide some support here very soon
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
TLT: Looks like the downtrend failed and we get a rally...It looks like bonds will rally until the elections possibly here. I'm long bonds and gold for the time being. Let's play it safe until we regain clarity. Not sure about equities but the new ATH in #SPX might indeed happen at some point, just that news make it extremely risky to trade equities until the elections risks are out of the way. This is a safe trend to hold on to meanwhile and squeeze a 25% return out of. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by IvanLabrie
USDCHF SHORTThe general ratio: All safe havens currencies are suffering amid widespread risk-on mode on markets. Usd, among them, is weaker due to riots and China tensions. The TA ratio: We broke the symmetrical triangle to the downside yesterday and we entered the retracement area again (green rectangle), but I wanted to wait for either a retest or a further break of the other descending triangle. Downward moment is mounting as we can see from the DMI indicator. Entering now with : SL 0.96525 (0.61% loss) just above the POC for last 4 days, the upper boundary of the green area and the 8daily MA. TP1 0.946 (1.37% gain - RR 2.25x) TP2 0.9241 (RR 6.15x)
Short
by edutradinguru
2
USD/JPY: Cup & Handle?Hi Guys, very simple. Remember this CUP in GOLD? It was March 27th. Click & Play to unfold. UJ and Gold are inversely correlated in their moves but they unfold similar patters in different timeframes. Would it be possible for UJ to unfold the same move made by GOLD? What should happen to take it to 124? Letters e) and g) fin the following snapshot Just for further information and easy reference please find below the CUP in Gold from different perspectives on April 13th, April 23rd and June 27th. Please share your view and for additional infos about UJ have a look to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
by cozzamara
Navigating the Market : USDJPY 23 September 2019I am bullish bias for this pair. My sentiment/fundamental analysis rationale to be bullish is the hawkish Fed's rate cut and the easing safe haven flow based on the US-China trade war and the potential "Oil War" provoked by Houthi's strike at Saudi two big oilfields. My technical rational to be bullish is what I read from the daily chart (I am not sharing how I deduced the daily chart for now) Last week's range was 96 pips whilst the 20-week Average Weekly Range (20-day AWR) was 147 pips. I am anticipating a price expansion (weekly range wise) this coming week to the upside. This week's 20-week Average Weekly Range is 146 pips. As I am bullish for this pair, naturally I am looking for the low of the week as late as Wednesday but it could happen as early as Monday Asian session. My guesstimate of this upcoming week's low around 107.350 - 107.500. There are reported sell stops at 107.250 and some huge option expiries in this price as well. If price enters the liquidity pool 107.350-107.250, that will activate my bullish bias and I will wait for the bullish trigger. Monday is a bank holiday in Japan and no risk event for U.S
Long
by sufiansaid
Hochschild Mining - Gold miners in demand amid uncertainty.Technical Analysis Hochschild Mining was a higher yesterday against a backdrop of red in UK markets. The shares appear to have been in the process of bottoming out over the past few months and have now completed an inverse head and shoulders bottom. This is a powerful reversal pattern and suggest there will be more upside over the medium term. Fundamentals Hochschild Mining currently ranks above average in our fundamental model with exceptional scores on value and momentum metrics. The shares have significantly outperformed the market over the past 1 to 3 months and we expect this to continue. Pros The company recent produced its 2nd best production performance in its history. RBC Capital Markets reiterated their ‘Outperform’ rating on the 5th July 2019 with a 260p price target. Global markets are in decline which could prompt even more demand for safe haven assets like gold. Cons The overall market is very volatile. This could impact the performance of all assets in the short term. Berenberg bank issued a sell rating on the 17th July 2019 with a 165p price target. Recent market declines have been short lived, if this occurs again investors may seek risker assets. Entry At Market (208p) Stop: 192.40p Target: 277p
LSE:HOCLong
by Investamate
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMESEnd of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest) stimulus from the BOJ had risk sentiment increasing affects - though now in light of no new easing from the BOJ and many CBs shrugging off/ UK internalising the brexit impacts I believe this bull run is over. 2. Technically speaking we may see another week or two of sideways or +1% as the market awaits easing policy information from the BOE (6th largest economy), but past this and regardless of what the BOE does i think the upside bias will cease. BOE is only likely to inject 50bn over probably 6m+ which is a drop in the ocean relatively as the BOJ does 100bn+ in one month, so by mid august latest I expect risk-markets to turn sour and a 10% correction is likely. Confirmation the risk-rally is over: - During this bull run we have seen risk markets/ SPX make gains rather frigidly, one day up one day down has been the trend - rather than the usual breakout green green green rallies of the past - this to me indicated that the topside was cautious and reinforced my view that it was central bank driven (not equity market performance driven). Thus, Confirmation of the trend turning to risk-off will be consecutive days of risk markets falling (SPX/ global indexes) OR consecutive safe haven markets rising (Gold, UST, Yen) and the emergence of a strong negative correlation between the two assets will be a solid second indicator that the 2016 risk-off trend is back. Trading Strategy - a number of ways to play this one: 1. Short FTSE100 @6700 or 7000 (wait for BOE) - this is my favourite trade but has a few conditions. We have built some resistance at the 6700-800 level so here isn't a bad place to sell however i think we will get a better selling vantage point next week, assuming the BOE cut the bank rate 25bps. - The BOE easing should move FTSE100 up 3-4% in a few days into the 7000 ATH key level as easing boosts business conditions and a lower GBP increases FTSE company international competitiveness. The 7000 level is where I am aiming for FTSE shorts with sell-limit orders as 1) its all time high levels; 2) I like to fade central bank action since it is artifical; 3) the broader risk-run is over so FTSE will suffer with the rest of the market 2. Short US Indexes @Market - SPX is perhaps the best short ATM given it trades right at its newly set all time high levels and on the backdrop of the BOJ miss we should see some downside soon. 3. Long Yen @mrkt - in the immediate term my favourite trade I like long Yen (for 200-400pips) against USD and GBP, given the BOJ backdrop is most related to JPY markets. We have already we seen the risk-off transmission taking place in here as Nikkei sold off 2% after the result and JPY grew 3% but i still think in the immediate term e.g. 1wk we can see more JPY topside and Nikkei weakness - me prefering to trade the FX strength over the equity as the equity often follows as a function of FX strength. 4. Long Bonds or Gold @mrkt - for the medium/ longer term I like buying govt debt, particularly UK gilts (BOE QE increases demand) or Gold - Gold we saw move higher on Friday in reaction to the BOJ so it will be interesting to see if we can get risk-off confirmation run from this next week (look for 3/4 green days). Risks to the view: 1. US Earnings have outperformed imo on average this Q, so the risk-run may be sustained for longer than the 2wk window that I expect. Nonetheless, i think even this is capped at 4wks e.g. we should be in full bear mode by the start of September - look out for the confirmation, a run of 3/4+ days of consecutive safe haven gains is often all the markets have to signal to show
TVC:SPXShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
6