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Saggauge

Is ConAgra ready to break the funk and move up?This is the rarest trading signal I have had yet. Seven algorithms signaled a buy at the same time which I have never experienced before. Is this good or bad? We shall see. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on August 6, 2021 with a closing price of 32.62. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 32.93 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.416% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.02% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.188% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 27 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:CAGLong
by StockSignaler
MYRG joins list of my near-term shortsI have changed up how to best display projected movement. In the case of MYRG, 5 of my algorithms signaled a SELL on March 19, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the Daily chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance. The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play). All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
NASDAQ:MYRGShort
by StockSignaler
JMIA may be due for bullish boost according to 6 algorithmsI have changed up how to best display projected movement. In the case of JMIA, 6 of my algorithms signaled a BUY on March 19, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move up, but sometimes it may continue to move down first. I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the Hourly chart after a BUY signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement downward before the stock finally moved upward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement downward, before the stock moved upward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential bottom in this instance. The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final top. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could rise the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never rise (and the green boxes may never come into play). All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
NYSE:JMIALong
by StockSignaler
1
Another decliner set to drop 5% from recent signal close priceMYRG signaled a SELL upon closing the first bar on the 3 hour chart on February 25, 2021. SELL was signaled on five of our algorithms which has never occurred before. In fact the SAG and MTF have never signaled SELL at the same time for this equity on the 3 hour chart either. I have drawn the potential movement lines. As I mention, the signal can be premature and the stock might still rise before it finally falls. I have mapped out all of the potential movement paths with final target bottoms. The average delay is 3-5 bars, but the very next bar after the signal saw the stock climb to the reversal zone and the stock may not actually move above 61.00 until it drops below 57.00 or even 56.00. The full free analysis is on my site in the signature block below.
NASDAQ:MYRGShort
by StockSignaler
Can AGCO rise another 3%At Friday's opening, AGCO rose significantly. By the close of the first two hour bar that morning, 4 of my trading algorithms signaled BUY. Normally such quick movement would trigger a SELL. After studying this event and the algorithms, it looks like squeezing a few more percent out of this rise is possible. The rarest of my triggers is the Precise signal but it has the strongest accuracy rate of all my algorithms. When all 4 of these trigger a BUY at the same time, the stock has always risen. The smallest rise when all 4 trigger is 0.796% and that occurred on the very next bar. The stock then dropped 4% afterward. The average and median gain from this point are above 3.2% from the closing price causing the BUY signal. Most of the time, the stock briefly drops 0.7% before completing its 3% gain. The typical period of this delay in upward price movement is likely over and the stock did not drop the full 0.7%. So the question is where does it go from here? In the short-term, it should climb above $128 which is still a significant move. I have plotted all of the models on this chart to include the bounce down and their target tops. Let me know what you think
NYSE:AGCOLong
by StockSignaler
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Will Drop At Least 3 Percent SoonIllinois Tool Works Inc has been trending up for more than two years. As the stock moves up, it naturally cycles up and down maintaining its upward bias. Some technical indicators are displaying major signals that the stock will soon drop. The relative strength index (RSI) is at a rarely observed extreme level; a combination of indicators also point out trouble on the horizon. The stock will most likely continue its upward trend over the long-term; but this next natural cycle down could impact investors. How bad will history repeat itself? The RSI is at 84.5283 and tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI is currently overbought and is at one of its highest levels ever. It can only take the stock down from here. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1854 and the negative is 0.6629. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. The opposite is true when the negative is higher. I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. The overbought signal recently occurred and could occur again over the next few days. Seeing the other signs of a downturn, proactively positioning short for the stock's decline prior to seeing this verifying signal could increase profits. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 104 times dating back to 1980. The stock drops at least 1.75% over the following 35 trading days in eighty percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3% seventy percent of the time and forty percent of the time loses 5.75%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these numbers combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a greater than 2% drop is looming. The RSI has been at or above its current level ONLY seven times in the history of this stock. The stock always drops over the next 25 days with a minimum drop of 0.93%, median decline of 2.52%, and average drop of 4.58%. Only one other time since 2000 was the RSI and positive VI at or above today's level at the same time the stochastic oscillator was overbought with the earnings call three days away. The stock dropped 5.21% over the following 14 trading days on that occasion. The technical indicators for this stock have been in the same or more extreme positions simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock. These all occurred more than 30 years ago. The minimum drop was 9.33% over 16 trading days while the median was 12.82% over 33 trading days. Although not identical to the current technical readings, ten similar instances saw the RSI close to today's 84 reading while the positive VI was at or above its current position, the negative VI was at or below its current position and the stochastic oscillator was overbought. On these occasions the stock dropped at least 4.49% and saw a median loss of 9.72%. Another odd thing has just occurred regarding the positive VI value. It was recently above its current 1.18 level before it dropped below 1 and moved back above 1.18. Although a move like this is normal, the positive level never crossed below the negative VI level. This similar movement has only occurred on five occasions. The minimum loss for the stock was 7.34% and the median drop was 8.50%. It is clear the stock will drop at least 3% over the next 40 days after taking all of this historical information in to consideration. I would not be surprised if the stock lost greater than 5% over this time period. The RSI for the stock is at one of its highest recorded levels ever which indicates there is only one direction for the stock to move. More at LimitlessLifeSkills.com
NYSE:ITWShort
by StockSignaler
Did ConocoPhillips (COP) Just Exhaust Itself?ConocoPhillips has climbed quickly in the previous month. The stock should not remain at such a high level according to technical indicators and historics, Will it head south with strong action around the 46 level? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.6636. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI has come down from overbought levels. The historical significance of this move and it current level are detailed below. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2097 and the negative is 0.6935. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the stock is moving down. The positive and negative have begun to head back toward the 1 level after flirting with extremes consistent with positive stock movement. A retreat back to one typically flags the end of the upward movement while signaling a drop for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.4177 and D value is 93.3957. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the stock will continue to decline and could drop quicker than it rose. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. The overbought signal could occur over the next few days. Seeing the other signs of a downturn, proactively positioning short for the stock's decline prior to seeing this verifying signal could increase profits. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 73 times dating back to 1981. The stock drops at least 2% over the following 35 trading days in eighty percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3% seventy percent of the time and forty percent of the time loses 6.25%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a greater than 5% drop is looming. On 13 occasions since 1985, the RSI has exited overbought territory and been at its current level while the stochastic was simultaneously overbought and the positive VI was retreating from a level above it current one. This might not be a significant amount of data points, it is plenty for when studying historical movement. Based on this data, the stock sees a median drop of 12.09% over the next 20-35 trading days. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 5-7% over the following 38 trading days. A SAG gauge signal would further bolster this idea.
NYSE:COPShort
by StockSignaler
Seven Percent Plus Drop In Cards For Ford?Ford Motor Company has climbed quickly in the previous month. Overall auto sales are in rough shape and could be this way for a while. According to the technical indicators and the historics, the stock has a good chance of coming back down to Earth which is laid out here. Ford loves to flirt around the 11 mark. Will it head back to it once more? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought meaning the stock could drop in the near term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2375 and the negative is 0.7026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action has flattened out. I could not locate similar consolidation in this stock for such a prolonged period of time. While this activity is a bit of a wildcard, the positive vortex indicator oscillates up and down as time transpires. With it staying high for a while, it is due to head downward, meaning the stock would drop at least a little (1-4%) soon. The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.15 and D value is 92.44. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the decline in the stock should begin within the next two trading days. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal occurred today which is another indicator of downward movement for the stock. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 98 times dating back to 1972. The stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days in ninety percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3.75% seventy percent of the time and fifty percent of the time loses 6%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a sizeable drop is coming. The RSI, stochastic, and positive VI have been at their current or higher levels simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock since 1979. Even though the availability of data points is low, the rarity of such a feat is the biggest signal for short-term traders to consider. Over the next 30 days, the stock always drops at least 7.19% from the date all three indicators are at or above the current levels simultaneously. The median drop over this time frame is 10.17%. If we look solely at the overbought RSI reading and its historics, the stock could drop in upwards of 8%. The RSI has been at or above its current level 139 times in its history. Over the course of the following 35 trading days, the stock retreats an average of 10.03% and a median of 8.27%. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 7% over the following 35 trading days. The best indicator is the flattening positive VI value and the simultaneously high levels of all three indicators. The SAG gauge signal and its historic information support a minimum of 3-5% drop in the near-term as well.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
1
History Says Chevron (CVX) Is Set To Decline At Least 5%Chevron has climbed quick in the previous month. This could be due to hurricanes in the United States and/or OPEC manipulation. No matter the world and economic reasoning, the technicals have a response for this overexuberant movement; the stock will begin dropping soon. The history of this stock has been studied and the information is explained below. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.3974. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is at an extreme level that has only occurred 26 times since 1973. The significance of this is outlined below and is the first signal of a pending downturn. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3839 and the negative is at 0.5046. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The both values are near extremes and this in conjunction with the extreme RSI reading will be covered in the SPECIFIC ANALYSIS section below. The stochastic oscillator K value is 95.0678 and D value is 83.0602. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is in overbought territory, but it could be another week before the D value is larger than the K value. In order for this crossover to occur, the stock would begin declining. We are looking to short the stock prior to this decline and more is explained below. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called SAG Gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal will most likely occur within a few trading days after the stock has begun to move downward. Recognizing this movement and pending signal can increase profit by entering early. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 111 times dating back to 1973. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops at least 3% over the following 30 trading days after the indicator date. Sixty percent of the time the stock drops at least 5% and fifty percent of the time loses 6.5%. Even though a drop does not always occur, taking the below information into consideration makes us believe we are in that 60% of the time range. As mentioned above, the RSI alone is at an extreme level that has only occurred 26 individual trading days since 1973. The stock always drops at least 1.58% from the date it reaches the 80.3974 level (which was just achieved on Sept 22) over the following 30 trading days. The median drop over this time frame is 5.71%, average is 6.81% and the maximum drop is 20.35%. Since 1973, this stock always drops at least 5% when the RSI is at or above its current level, while the positive VI is at or above its current level and the stochastic is in overbought territory. These conditions have only been met four times and the instances were evaluated. The median decline for the stock has been 15.08% over the following 30 trading days. On three of these four occasions, the stock continued to go up for at least 2 more trading days. This additional climb resulted in a minimum stock decline of 6.75%. Between all of the mentioned historics, I believe the stock could drop at least 5% over the following 40 trading days if not sooner. The best indicator is the simultaneous extremes that have been achieved by the RSI & positive VI. The RSI extreme alone supports this belief & the SAG helps.
NYSE:CVXShort
by StockSignaler
Buy This Costco (COST) Dip Before It Shoots UpCostco has been in an overexuberant decline since news of the Amazon and Whole Foods merger. Fortunately, this decline in the stock has brought it in-line with recent support levels and should begin to move upward once again. The stock has been in a consistent bullish trend since 2010. The recent decline seems to be part of the natural cycle for Costco. This cycle points upward next and also has other factors correlating to this move. On multiple occasions through the long bull trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below have been at similar levels in which they are now. These instances have resulted in gains for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending gain for Costco which are laid out below. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 30.7171. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is moving upward from recent oversold levels. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7644 and the negative is at 1.1780. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative levels have been moving in a manner consistent with upward movement for the stock The stock and indicators had been bearish for the past three weeks, but that trend is starting to end. The stochastic oscillator K value is 5.0897 and D value is 6.4898. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic well oversold and the stock should begin to move upward soon. I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal will occur within a few trading days after the stock has begun to move upward. Recognizing this movement and pending signal can increase gains by entering early. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled oversold status 25 times dating back to 1986. The stock always gains at least 0.75% over the following 35 trading days after the indicator date. Eighty percent of the time the stock gains at least 8.75% and seventy percent of the time gains 9%. Since 1998, this stock always gains a minimum of 1.76% when the RSI, positive and negative VI are simultaneously at their current level and moving in their current direction. This additional study requires the stochastic at the bottom of the chart above to be oversold as it is today too. Ten similar instances were found. The median move is 15.20% over 20 trading days. The last two times the stock bounced off its support line (which it did on July 11), the stock has achieved a minimum gain of 8.30% over the following 22 trading days. Three of the ten instances we just covered occurred at the same time or within days of an oversold signal on the SAG gauge. These instances resulted in a minimal gain of 6.10% and median of 16.25%. Considering the RSI, VI, stochastic levels, SAG gauge and historical similarities, the stock should see upward movement over the short to intermediate time period. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could gain at least 6% over the next 35 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by StockSignaler
1
History Sets Up Bearish Drop For Aetna Inc (AET)Aetna Inc has been in a bullish trend since 2007-2008. It has been in a steeper, and narrower bullish trend for the past four months. On multiple occasions through the long bull trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar levels that they are at now. These instances have resulted in short-term losses for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending drop for Aetna Inc which are laid out below. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is retreating from overbought but has been relatively neutral moving for the last month. The positive and negative Vortex levels have been moving in a manner consistent with downward movement for the stock, but haven’t bearishly crossed each other since March. The stochastic oscillator K value is 83.1080 and D value is 87.5589. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic overbought, but has remained near the levels for the past few weeks. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria which culminates in an oversold or overbought alert. That signal occurred June 26 as AET is truly overbought. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 104 times dating back to 1977. The stock always drops 0.14%, which is not much, but it is something. Eighty percent of the time the stock drops at least 2% over the following 35 trading days after the indicator date. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops 2.5% and fifty percent of the time drops 5%. Since 2007, this stock always drops a minimum of 7.63% when the RSI, positive and negative VI are simultaneously at their current level and moving in their current direction. This additional study requires the stochastic at the bottom of the chart above to be overbought as it is today too. Ten similar instances were found going back to 2007. The minimum move occurs over 9 trading days resulting in a drop of 7.63%. The median move is 11.08% over 33 days. Three of the aforementioned instances occurred at the same time the SAG gauge signaled overbought. The minimum days of movement and percentage dropped are outlined in the chart above with a orange rectangle (18 days, 8.51%). The median movement and percentage are represented by the light blue rectangle (28 days, 10.08%). This identical scenario is possibly playing out again. I do not fully trust three data points, but I will not ignore it either. My conservative projection is dictated by the accuracy of the SAG gauge, identical situations disregarding the SAG overlaps, and identical situations when the SAG fires overbought when the RSI and VIs are at their current levels. The respective minimum drops are 0.14%, 7.63%, and 8.51%. The respective median drops are 5%, 11.08%, and 10.08%. I am confident the upcoming drop will rest between a 5-10% loss over the next 35 trading days. A solid drop over the next few days is required for the full drop to take effect. A failure to pass the new healthcare plan by Congress prior to the upcoming recess could be this catalyst. Considering the RSI, VI, stochastic levels, SAG gauge and historical similarities favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could drop at least 8% over the next 35 trading days if not sooner.
AShort
by StockSignaler
Bearish Movement Ahead For Dow Chemical (DOW)Dow Chemical has been in a bullish trend since 2009. It has been in a narrower bullish trend since January 2016. On a few occasions through this trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar levels that they are at now. These instances have resulted in short-term losses for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending drop for Dow Chemical which are laid out below. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 50.1024. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral having been moving down with the stock. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9986 and the negative is at 0.9208. The positive and negative levels have been moving in a manner consistent with downward movement for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 69.1107 and D value is 82.6903. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is beginning its downward movement from overbought levels. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria which culminates in an oversold or overbought alert. That signal occurred June 21 when DOW was truly overbought. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 99 times dating back to 1972. Eighty percent of the time the stock drops at least 2.5% over the following 35 trading days after the indicator date. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops 3.5% and fifty percent of the time drops 5.75%. Since 2011, this stock always drops a minimum of 3.93% when the RSI, positive and negative VI are simultaneously at their current level and moving in their current direction. This additional study requires the stochastic at the bottom of the chart above to be overbought as it is today too. Eight similar instances were found going back to 2011. The minimum days of movement and percentage dropped are outlined in the chart above with a yellow rectangle (9 days, 3.93%). The median movement and percentage are represented by the light blue rectangle (23.5 days, 8.95%). One of the occasions above, the SAG gauge fired the overbought signal two days prior to the RSI, VI, and stochastic lining up. This identical scenario is possibly playing out again. I do not fully trust one data point, but I will not ignore it either. On this occasion, the stock dropped 17.76% over the following 13 trading days. The final level studied which is most strongly dictating my conservatively placed projection is a Fibonacci retracement. According to Investopedia, "Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%." The 61.8% retracement level from the bottom to the top of the most recent movement falls within all of the potential movement windows. If the stock were to give back 100% of its most recent movement (May 18 low of 59.29 to June 19 high of 65.47) the stock would drop to 59.29. 61.8% of this movement would have the stock drop to 61.65 which is where my projection lies. Considering the RSI, VI, stochastic levels, SAG gauge and historical similarities favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could drop at least 2.87% over the next 35 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:DOWShort
by StockSignaler