ORBEX: Syria Operations Weaken TRY, Brexit Looks Good Pre-SummitIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #USDTRY and #EURGBP #FXMinors!
Turkish Lira Under Pressure on:
- Risk of sanctions
- Launch of military operations in Syria
- Bank charges for money laundering and fraud
- Breather short-term amid US Retail Sales
Pound Higher on:
- Negotiations optimistic ahead of EU Summit
- BoJo's attempts to get deal through better than May's
- New customs border in the Irish sea; proposal
- EU likely to agree on that deal, then through parliament
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Sanctions
WTI (USOIL) Might Target $70 Amid Iran Tension & Supply Jitters!The 3 horizontal lines visible in the main weekly chart of WTI are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly TF. Currently the price is at 60.00 and there is a descending trendline preventing the price from climbing further. From a technical perspective, once this trendline breaks, the price on the monthly charts must close above 63.00 concrete resistance. This is just to add gain further confluence and confidence in our potential trade. Once the monthly candle closes above 63.00 we could wait for the price to retrace slightly before executing a LONG trade to target 70.00!
On a fundamental perspective there are 2 factors in our favor. First one is the IRAN tensions with the US and now potentially U.K. US putting sanctions on iranian OIL is bullish for the WTI and the tensions is just further strengthening this aspect. Secondly, the storm in the gulf is limiting the drilling activities which is also bullish for the OIL. Lastly the the deal that is binding OPEC & NON-OPEC countries seem to be going okay so far as they all want the price of OIL to rise.
One thing that is bearish for the WTI at the moment seems the ongoing tradewar which if no deal could be made, the demand for OIL would decrease!
So it remains to be seen in the coming weeks how the situation develops. Shall there be a trade entry i will post in a new post.
Iranian pressure's from U.S. cause n effect "The Washington Post came out with a news report on early Monday saying that the US State Department is set to announce that all countries will have to completely end their imports of Iranian oil or be subject to U.S. sanctions.
The report further states that the US action is an escalation of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which seeks to force Tehran to end its illicit behavior around the world." - Copy and pasted from FX Street 7:18 PM CST
Bitcoin Will Go to $100,000 In Due Timeimgur.com
Bitcoin is grossly undervalued. Looking at the price trend in a LOG format gives more of a realistic view of how Bitcoin price action works. And $100,000 is an inevitability in due time.
Currently, the U.S. controls global monetary flow. Through its virtual monopolization of FED Wire and SWIFT, U.S. can bankrupt weak countries at will by placing embargoes and cutting them off from global finance. The EuroDollar, PetroDollar and US Dollar as a global reserve currency are all antiquated ideas that don't fall in line with global trend of decentralization that we see in everything. Quite frankly, U.S. ability to sanction any country it doesn't agree with is becoming quiet cumbersome to its allies and commerce in general. For example, decades long U.S. sanctions on countries like North Korea, Sudan, Iran, Syria and Cuba have done little to stabilize respective countries and surrounding areas.
As U.S. threatens slightly more powerful countries like Russia and Venezuela when the U.S. doesn't get their way, it becomes a disturbance to global commerce and stability. Bitcoin as an alternative to FED Wire and SWIFT in itself should give it an astronomically higher valuation than $64 Billion that we see today. In 2016 alone, the FED Wire system processed some 148.1M transactions valued at $766.7 T. As U.S. struggles to maintain its hegemony, more sanctions should be expected. And at some point these sanctioned countries will vie for an alternative vehicle to move money. And these countries would prefer a decentralized vehicle than to play the same game with different players. I expect future sanctioned countries to utilize cryptocurrencies as a future medium to transfer money.
RTS index could drop to 800-530 following the Brent crudeThere will be no miracle. Less revenues from falling oil market will drag the index lower
as it should be around 800 already and could hit 530 when the oil would retest a multi-year low.
The correlation index for the past 12 months shows negative correlation but it is a temporary situation
as on the longer periods (20+ months) it is positive.
This will change gradually when the index will catch up with a falling "knife" oil.
USD/RUB A+ set-up when fundamentals and technicals join togetherthe U.S. and the European Union announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday 16 of July following the annexation of Crimea back in March and ongoing tensions in the east of Ukraine. The U.S. package was the largest round of penalties so far, with Russia's oil producer Rosneft hit as well as other energy, financial and defense firms.
Technically USD/RUB came into play after new portion of sanctions were announced against Russia. In February 2014, currency pair broke up major resistance level at 33.50 and had nice follow through to 37.00. During this period of mark-up it was nicely controlled and followed by 8 and 21 EMAs. In April price entered into consolidation, after it dropped its 8 and 21 first time since break up. Break down of this range lead to move lower to 200 EMA. Bear chanel was created with series of lower highs and lower lows. But after price bounced off from support which acted like resistance earlier, then broke up this chanel, regained all key moving averages and had a nice 2nd day follow through. Lets see if it can build some construction above 34.43-34.59 support zone - break out point and moving averages. It will be healthy to see some digestion after six days move up in a row. And then it may continue higher. Next reasonable level of resistance is 35.35 - break down point of April's consolidation.