if the opening continues to fall...if the opening continues to fall we could be in for a 20+ point drop into next week? JMHO
Sandp500
SandP500 Daily showing divergenceSPX is getting to a critical spot. That is what I would like to see it do (ending diagonal). But regardless, a lot of divergence coming in as it seems to be in a running flat as I mentioned before. A spike into that zone (27% extension-3000 level) might be a place to try a tight entry on a short.
SPXRalph Elliot speaking from beyond the grave.... Typically speaking, wave 4 retraces 23-38%. We are on an extended wave 5 of wave 3. Those 2 rectangles are measurements: 1.618 x wave 1, 2.618 x wave 1. Wave 3 typically terminates around 1.618 wave 1 (watch that 3000 area. It may not even reach it, but if it did and hit the top of the 2.618 box, that's a sell all day. I could go down to the last wave and explain it better but you guys, but you don't pay me enough... Just kidding, I'm lazy. Commodities are down. Look at Silver, Platinum, Natural Gas even. If stock market goes into wave 4 retrace, money will be moved to safer investments perhaps. In fact, I feel that I have pretty much all markets sewn up at this point.
Facebook (FB) - Long/Short - Make or Break FB sitting on the weekly trendline, a nice push up would be a buy signal, would like to see a buy pattern form beforehand.
If further breakdown, look for consolidation and sell.
Nailed Last Drop, Here is Next S&P 500 TopI am back with another Elliott Wave Forecast on the S&P 500 Index . After detailed research and analysis, I identified the recent bottom, which occurred today, ahead of time. I have identified the next top. I have identified 3 colored polygons. The green zone will most likely contain the top, but the yellow polygon is also possible. The red zone is unlikely, but anything is possible. I entered long positions today and plan to sell once the green zone is hit.
The key levels of interest are:
3070.31
2976.31
2973.51
2960.05
2947.87
2946.10
2943.41
2934.89
2931.95
2931.43
The tight grouping of levels between 2931.43 and 2947.87 make this the most likely zone. I have also identified a trend line of resistance. This will most likely dictate the top based on timing. The top should occur between 11:15 Eastern time on September 10 and 14:00 on September 10.
The full analysis and complete article will be posted tonight or tomorrow morning on ElliottWaveIdeas.com
S&P Could Drop Back To 2532S&P 500 could be in a final stage of counter-trend correction
within wave X, which is a link between wave W and Y.
The range was set with the wave W between 2532 on the downside and 2873 on the upside.
The index reached the area of triple resistance where current resistance (yellow), medium term (gray) and range's top (blue) intersect.
Besides that, there is a Pregnant Lady aka Harami candlestick appeared yesterday.
It is a Bearish reversal signal.
But let us watch for the breakdown of immediate support (red) for confirmation.
The Y wave could drop back to the major low established by the wave W at the 2532 level.
S&P 500The S&P is pulling back up, but I still consider it in a "B" wave and I still expect downside to be coming. They may break that top for one more, but they should run it back down. At that point it can make another move up, but I expect more downside before any upside.
SPX: S&P 500 Next Trade Points from HereS&P 500 SPX500USD
Of the 3 charts followed for S&P 500 index, this one has been the most reliable recently.
We were looking for S&P strength as the last but one of the Fangs report earnings with
Amazon on 26th after hours. Google has helped overnight.
After triple bottoming at the 2790 support line the S&P has rallied higher, making a little
spike off the next line at 2809 before pushing higher still.
It should move on up to test 2836-2837 on this feed, then consolidate some, perhaps back
to 2814 at lows before it rallies again.
Has to beat 2837 to trigger further near term strength up to 2876 -2877 where it should top
out and reverse if touched later in the week.
No point in trying to fight this until earnings are almost done with.
The turn may come on 26th. Let's see - time should tell us the next trade from there...
19th July Update
Am counting on a 4th wave on the back of earnings in near term -
It could use some great results from Microsoft tonight - merely 'good' numbers will be a bit of a let down - on the Dow also and Dax too.
Looking at this index in isolation it still looks like it has more upside left and will eventually break higher above 2814 up to 2838 and then after consolidating some more here, it should push on to 2876 highs again.
On the downside it has to break below 2798 to short back to 2788/7 where it must bounce again if the trend is to remain positive in the nearer term and for a retest of the highs to remain the likeliest outcome from here.
S&P 500. Updated chart. Larger Triangle or Double Three As I promised in my earlier post
here is an update with the two possible scenarios.
First of all I would like to focus your attention on the dashed parallel trendline resistance (yellow).
Price was rejected right at that resistance shaping reversal Doji candle on the Weekly chart.
If this upmove has been finished (breakdown below red support is needed to confirm it) then I can see
two options of further price development.
1) Larger Triangle.
It still could be a Triangle but of the larger size (orange marks and blue zigzag).
It perfectly fits with the trendline support (yellow).
2) WXY Double Three.
Another option is more painful as price could drop to 2400 as marked with the white zigzag.
It implies the breakdown of the yellow support and this should relax the market deeply before the autumn comes or even later.
I heard once that 2018 could be a NON-performing year for US stocks and this scenarios confirm it. Let's live and see
Down goes the S&PStandard wave analysis of market cycles.
Search 'Wall Street Cheat Sheet' on Google Images for the reference this is built on.
SPY Pivot IdeaI believe if it breaks the triangle we will continue down to previous supports, otherwise we will see January levels coming.
XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert GeneratorXPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator
Long-Term Trailing-Stop study detecting S&P500 Stock Market Crashes/Corrections and showing Volatility as warning signal for upcoming crashes
Detecting or avoiding stock market crashes seems to be the 'Holy Grail' of strategies/studies.
This study detects all major S&P500 stock market crashes and corrections since 1980 depending on the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter. The 5 crashes/corrections of 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2010 were successfully detected with the default parameters.
With the default parameters this study generates 5954% profit, with 6 closed trades, 100% profitable, while the Buy&Hold strategy only generates 2427% profit, so this strategy beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 2.45 times!
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
the green area shows a trading period (between buy and sell)
the close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is temporarily lower than the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green.
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as colored curves
the Volatility is show below in green and red. The alert threshold (red) is default set to 200 (see Volatility Warning Threshold parameter below)
Trailing Stop Smoothness value:
Adjust the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter to hide/show smaller corrections/crashes:
96: 6 trades, 100% profit, 5954% profit, detected crashes: 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010
90: 8 trades, 100% profit, 5347% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011
74: 9 trades, 100% profit, 4964% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
41: 10 trades, 100% profit, 4886% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
How to use this alert generator?
Add to your alerts to get an automatic warning (via e-mail) of an upcoming stock market crash
Optimize parameters using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters
More trades don't necessarily generate more overall profit. It is important to detect only the major crashes and avoid closing trades on the smaller corrections. Bearing the smaller corrections generates a higher profit.
Watch out for the volatility alerts generated at the bottom (red). Threshold can by changed by the Volatility Warning Threshold parameter (default 2% ATR). In almost all crashes/corrections there is an alert ahead of the crash.
Although the signal doesn't predict the exact timing of the crash/correction, it is a clear warning signal that bearish times are ahead!
The current correction in march 2018 is not yet a major crash but there was already a red volatility warning alert. If the volatility alert repeats the next weeks/months, chances are higher that a bigger crash or correction is near.
As can be seen in the graphic, the deeper the crash is, the higher and wider the red volatility signal goes. So keep an eye on the red flag!
Information about the parameters: see below
If you are interested in buying this S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator, please drop me a message to receive the code (Price 99$).
SPX Outlook Monthly, Weekly and Daily trends are up.
4H: Price engulfed a minor supply zone (marked at chart). it's a signal to buy but not very strong.
Down move is still possible. So I will buy with LOW risk.
Here Is The SECRET PATH - WHY BITCOIN will MOON very soon!! Dear Friends! :)
Who would have thought, that D4rkEnergY could get sick? I flew back to Seoul 4 days ago. Got 5 hours of sleep on the plane. Installed in my apartment. When I arrived at our office I was quickly briefed that we had a big event for clients, sponsors, ICO's in a big venue. I was told to prepare a speech and make a Live TA-show on Bitcoin for +500 people - aaand the event was about to start - I had 2 hours!
After the event we went out and had some dinner with our customers - Korean BBQ of course. For those of you who don't know how to do business in Korea, I'll reveal it here:
1. Eat
2. Drink Soju mixed with beer!
3. Drink more Soju
4. Talk, negotiate
Repeat...
I'm from Denmark - and in Scandinavia we know how to drink... But D4rkEnergY had to surrender in the end... But now I'm finally back - and this time I'm going to tell you WHY Bitcoin soon will moon!
As you can see I have made a comparison between S.P.Y: S&P 500 and Bitcoin. The S.P.Y aims to track the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which is comprised of 500 large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks
Here is what I have realized:
- Bitcoin is following S.P.Y
- But with a delay - it seems like S.P.Y is in average 2-3 weeks ahead of Bitcoin
As you can see we have very similar patterns:
- Bull run
- Double bottoms
- Double Top
- Bear flag etc.
Now what?
S.P.Y started its new uptrend May 2nd. 12 days ago. As you can see on the RSI it started after a double bottom on RSI Level 43, where we also now on the BTC-chart has made our first bottom.
We are at 8,400 USD now (while I'm writing this post we are having a sick spike to 8,8k USD). But if we will follow S.P.Y we can expect to go down again, and make a double bottom before we will moon!
D4 Loves You <3
Nice to be back again - Please leave a LIKE and follow for more. Thanks in advance, my friends :)
What Is Next to Invest in!? Here's a Bleak Map =$A New Cold War, or a War-Don't overlook
The new generation will get consumed with hatred against each other, as Russia, China, and the Middle East Align Against the US and Most of Europe, There will be dark clouds, Ideas of Nuclear War, and Proxy Plays, think more 'Corrupt Syria being helped by Russia" So the hope walks with the younger generation, paving the way of more boundaryless freedoms, freespeech, free movement, free ideas,
But yes,
Stock market is crumbly, bitcoin is slumping
Borders are becoming more restrictive
Food Surpluses will exist in countries that don't have easy ways of selling,
Government will require more of you
Military spending will go up, Weapon Systems-defensive and offensive
Healthcare spending will go up long term
Large contracts will be given to Base Development, Contractors,
Normally the greatest advancements happen on the fringes, www.iqt.org
Biological War Prevention- for those that can afford, historically this is a underprepared measure
So gold is not always a good bet, bet on the actors when investing and the aftermath property when securing long gains.
But, if this does not play out, and continues as is, crumbly posturing,
VIX will make you money if you learn how to trade Volatility.
Then push that into the 'sign of the times'
Long ES 2625 Target 2631 (Hourly)A long signal appeared with zero warnings. Chart is a bit messy as I port over my systems to TV.
S&P 500 IDEAJust a test idea with different chart layouts from other ideas.
> Support lays around the 2640 / 2625 region
> If a trade triggers initial targets 2700/2710 level
S&P 500 Index: SPX Same Wild Triangle as GoogleSandP 500 Index SPX
The same wild triangle as Google is less well defined on SandP
- at least on downside - will likely retest the rising dynamic
of the triangle here ansd will follow Google, not the other
way round.
It does however look quite threatening - one thing for sure,
this cannot be bought again until it either it breaks lower still
or only once 2675 is broken above from here and held on the
retest in the alternative.
XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection StrategyXPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy
Long-Term Trailing-Stop strategy detecting S&P500 Stock Market Crashes/Corrections and showing Volatility as warning signal for upcoming crashes
Detecting or avoiding stock market crashes seems to be the 'Holy Grail' of strategies.
Since none of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy, the purpose was to detect a stock market crash on the S&P500 and step out in time to minimize losses and beat the Buy&Hold strategy.
So beat Buy&Hold strategy with less then 10 trades. 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
With the default parameters the strategy generates 5954% profit, with 6 closed trades, 100% profitable, while the Buy&Hold strategy only generates 2427% profit, so this strategy beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 2.45 times!
Also the strategy detects all major S&P500 stock market crashes and corrections since 1980 depending on the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter, and steps out in time to cut losses and steps in again after the bottom has been reached. The 5 crashes/corrections of 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2010 were successfully detected with the default parameters.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
the close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is temporarily lower than the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value is lower than the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as colored curves
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
the Volatility is show below in green and red. The alert treshold (red) is default set to 200 (see Volatility Warning Treshold parameter below)
Trailing Stop Smoothness value:
Adjust the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter to hide/show smaller corrections/crashes:
96: 6 trades, 100% profit, 5954% profit, detected crashes: 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010
90: 8 trades, 100% profit, 5347% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011
74: 9 trades, 100% profit, 4964% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
41: 10 trades, 100% profit, 4886% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
How to use this Strategy ?
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters), then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals on the S&P500.
More trades don't necessarily generate more overall profit. It is important to detect only the major crashes and avoid closing trades on the smaller corrections. Bearing the smaller corrections generates a higher profit.
Watch out for the volatility alerts generated at the bottom (red). Threshold can by changed by the Volatility Warning Threshold parameter (default 200 = 2% ATR). In almost all crashes/corrections there is an alert ahead of the crash.
Although the signal doesn't predict the exact timing of the crash/correction, it is a clear warning signal that bearish times are ahead!
The current correction in march 2018 is not yet a major crash but there was already a red volatility warning alert. If the volatility alert repeats the next weeks/months, chances are higher that a bigger crash or correction is near.
As can be seen in the graphic, the deeper the crash is, the higher and wider the red volatility signal goes. So keep an eye on the red flag!
To use this strategy for future trades, set the end date past today and set the Sell On End Date value to false
Information about the parameters: see below
Buy the dip in the spyLast week there was again some market panic which caused a selloff in stocks. There are a lot of broken charts right now on a lot of different stocks. But fundamentally market is still looking strong. So i'm going to buy the dip. In a few months there is a high chance we are back higher. Time to deploy cash on monday.
S&P bear flag - Beginning of something bigger? The technicals are quite depressing for the SPX. Bear flag is broken. The previous correction easily could be just a dead cat bounce and now go to the deep. Some other assets are also support a bigger downtrend (at least for few months). We will see. What do you think?
S&P500 Rising Wedge 17/3/18 (3/17/18)Hi Guys im back,
I stumbled on to this in the three month chart.
A rising Wedge!
Resistance line is Confirmed . Support likely to be confirmed.
once that red candle meets the support line pattern confirmed
