S&P 500 long term trend analysis - Where to from here?There is no doubt that the S&P 500 is expensive on almost any valuation metric. If one "zooms out" a few things become overwhelmingly apparent. The first is that pre-great depression and dot.com bubble, the index was well above its average trend line as it breaks into the blue shaded area. Currently the index has broken into the blue shaded area whilst testing the support of the upper green band.
During 1955 and 1973 the index continued to rise whilst the upper green band acted as a resistance line. The question is, could history repeat itself whereby the index continues to rally along the upper green band with minor retracements along the way or will it continue to rise towards the upper blue band and thus perpetuating the feeling that the index is in bubble territory (extreme greed).
if interest rates remain relatively low compared to historical standards and given the quantity of money in the system (QE) could the index remain more expensive than we are typically used to?
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Sandp500
SAND/USDT 12 HOUR UPDATEWelcome to this quick SAND/USDT analysis.
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
Reason of trade:- SAND/USDT Triangle pattern create to buy the dip and green zone
Entry:- buy green zone
Traget:- 75% to 100%
Stop loss:-Greenline downside candle close
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is under my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
Happy trading.
Sorry for my English it is not my native language
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
SP500: Market Crash Incoming?! Are We In a Bubble?We are now at a critical point in the markets since the Wallstreet and other commodities hit the ATH with an outstanding performance. This is how I see the S&P500 Index for the upcoming weeks and a huge crash is possible in the markets. If this scenario plays out this %32 drop is coming after the %100 rally in SPX and 3K is the main support for this crash IMO.
Is the S&P 500 About to Crash? It's getting close....The holy grail of trading is being able to confirm trend reversals. Using a proprietary indicator, I'm able to confirm, with a backtested over 90% accuracy a major trend direction change in the S&P 500.
The chart
On the left you have 3M candles. This is best for confirm a full blown bearish trend reversal as occurred in 2000 and 2008.
In brief, if on April 1st, price is BELOW the green line, there's a 90% chance price will not only continue down but that the longest bull trend in market history has come to an end. So watch that line and that date.
On the right you can see the 1M candle in the top right.
It's already breached it's support. If it closes on February 1st below the green line, price is likely to keep going down.
On the bottom right you can see the 1W candle. It's already clearly in a trend reversal. 1W is not long enough to predict overall market trends.
Time will tell, but my indicator, I call the Tenoris Indicator, latin for 'trend' is highly accurate back tested going back over 40 years. If you're interested in it LMK.
Predicting and Confirming Real Market Crashes on the S&P 500The holy grail of stock investing , IMO, is predicting and or even confirming a market crash, a trend change from bullish to bearish that's going to last for an extended period of time. I'm defining a 'market crash' as a trend change from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish.
How do we know when a pullback or correction is just that and when it's the start of a long term bear market?
I'm old enough to vividly remember and having been impacted financially by the crashes and bear markets of approximately 2000 and 2008. So I became obsessed with creating an indicator that could weed out pullbacks, fake outs, and minor corrections and confirm a real bear market. Here's my best effort after years of work.
The arrows on the chart would have appeared when the candle they are above closed. I'm using a 91D candle for starters. This gives the best results. And several other proprietary methods under the hood of my indicator. However, you can see that it over the last 40 years, only indicated two bear markets....and both correctly. For the S&P 500 to confirm another bear market, major trend reversal, it will need to drop under the red dotted line for an extended period of time...then you'll know it's likely headed further down.
Curious what other think and how you determine if the stock market is at the beginning of a real trend change.
Repeat of the 2000 dot-com bubble? Some dubious speculation...I took the bar pattern of the 2000 bubble pop and subsequent bear market and copied it to the present day to see what it would look like.
I did adjust the shape a little to make the H&S look more symmetrical, just like the H&S in 2000.
You can see it fits rather well.
- The RSI is topping and expected to trend lower.
- The bottom of the breakdown lines up with the market top in 2000 and 2008.
- It bottoms at the lower support of the megaphone pattern.
- Finally, the length of the move is proportional to the one in 2000.
Despite how 'perfectly' it all fits, extrapolating 2 years out to find the bottom is dubious speculation. It goes without saying, but it most likely will not go down like this.
Disclaimer: I am not bearish nor am I bullish. I don't hold a macro outlook. I simply react to what the market tells me. This was just a fun hypothetical.
S&P500
short for s & p in resistan zone
In :4559.9
SL:4584.2
TP:4498.1
after price down to 4525 get risk free .
(( always use STOP LOSS my friends ))
Seriously overbought. SnP 500. How long can it last? Take 2Long held trends tend to hold-up, well... long. I've labeled the chart with 2 of what I think are the most plausible EW count scenarios. It does allow to see where the risk and acceleration levels likely are. Only time will tell if the top is in, or if we are going still higher yet.
US500: Back to the basics ?Investors have always regarded the US500 as some sort of safe haven, with a common consensus that the S&P500 never fails to meat their profit expectations by breaking the records each month. However, this index has been suffering now for many weeks making many dips with lower rejections on the non horizontal resistance. For instance, technical analysis now can says a lot:
1- One final rejection: Price has been testing the upper trendline and if the last high is broken, then the US500 will be back to its basics making the buyers winning the bargain.
2- An Inverse Head n Shoulder: Clearly on the chart, the left part is lower than the right shoulder, meaning that price failed to break lower levels.
Will it go as expected ? Or is it willing to go for a soaring session ?
Time will tell...
~ Cyril
SPY (S&P500) - Resistance, Support, and Trend - 09/05/2021The S&P500 (SPY) has been uptrending in price, on daily and weekly charts (2021).
Current price is testing the upper Trendline Resistance line.
Bullish scenario:
-SPY price breaks up above trendline resistance to test new all-time-highs.
-Resistance price targets: $453.38, $457.40, $463.83.
Bearish scenario:
-SPY price pulls back down to horizontal or trendline support price levels.
-Support price targets: $447, $440.39, $436.37.
Note: Any price close above $436.37 price level would still be a higher-low, on a weekly chart, for the S&P500 (SPY).
[-40%] S&P 500 SHORTSell when people are euphoric, bought when there is blood on the street.
Analysis :
- Bearish divergence
- Bullish channel - if we break the bottom, confirmation of the bear trend -
- RSI -> overbought
- Top of the yellow canal has been broken - the last time it was before the crisis of 2000 -
S&P500 signaling a drop? - more information showing throughI have been continue to monitor this chart for several months and called a SEP/OCT break up or down. It has broken down officially. This is where things get interesting. I will be waiting for next weeks open to confirm a continuation of the move before I am 100% sure. But this isn't looking good for the large cap companies.