Sandp500
ESM2021. Reversal crystal formed off .5 reaction.S&P looks like it will be reversing. By that I mean the recent bottom may have revealed itself.
Bulls will worry about the previous price consolidation that it will be encountering shortly, but there are a lot of good bullish elements to suggest that they will power through.
The dip and recovery at the .5 level on the fib two times in a row should be satisfying the longs as well as the profit takers. If things remain in balance (which can be a big 'if') we can predict that a further impulse is on the way.
I don't see much weakness in the market. You could use the story-telling method. People might not be certain that the stock market can continue bullishly with Biden instead of Trump. So far, this narrative has been disproven. Based solely on the evidence available from the chart it seems like a healthy bullish market.
My worst case scenario is that we see another low before the reversal.
If you are looking to buy and hold for long periods of time, like how the people with enormous holdings are doing, you would think what just happened in the markets is a gift from god, and you would probably be buying aggressively. I think that's exactly what created the reversal pattern.
$SPY SNP500 ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS UPDATEDSeems like what I previously thought to be wave four was wrong, I do believe we are now currently in wave 4. Im watching for a bounce at 413.7-414.5 , this would complete the fourth wave and send us to the last leg in the rally. As of now my price target on spy is 426. A daily close under 410 would signify the start of the correction and the first leg of downward action on spy in my opinion. good luck to all
SPY swing puts - the RSI bear storyPlease see notes on chart.
I bought 21 May 418 strike puts when SPY was over 422.30.
Strangely, the U.S. markets are flying high today while individual stocks are chopping around and/or still leaning bearish on 30 or 60m timeframes.
SPY weekly chart has been extended for so long that I am ignoring it for now and paying attention to the daily and 30m for context.
S&P 500 Due A Breather?The S&P 500 continues to trend well and has been making use of the 20 and 50 simple moving
averages as support.
On April 1st 2021, price finally broke above $4000 which was anticipated to be a potential
strong level of resistance. Price broke through with ease, forming a linear move to the upside.
A pullback is due as price has seen a nice move upwards, so some selling off is natural. We just
need to identify levels of support price may come down to.
We have the 20 simple moving average, the $4000 round number, followed by the 50 simple
moving average.
Whichever level acts as support is irrelevant, we just need to continue to see a pattern of
higher highs and higher lows to confirm the uptrend is still in play.
Overall, the stock market is bullish and we may well continue to see bull trends throughout
the rest of the year.
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As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
$SPY nearing a top (Mid-May), support in the low $300sIt looks to me like $SPY is nearing the end of its bull run. We should see one more large push up. Thinking it'll top out around $425-$430 in the middle of May and find support in August around the $320 area (Green support line). If price falls under $323 and the selling continues, price could go all the way down to the lower support line at $287 where I would expect a bounce.
Key levels and pivot dates on the charts. Same idea as before, updated timing and levels.
Good luck.
S&P 500 looking overbought. Expecting 100+ point correction.It's your friendly neighborhood trader-man. S&P looks overextended.
I'm looking for a deep correction that is also healthy. I think the year will be a crazy one that finishes up, so I'm not long term bearish. Only when I see the signs.
Longs use tight stops, and keep a close eye on the overnight action.
The biggest thing for me is just how low the volume has been this recent week. Moves up on lower volume don't last!
Will it correct tomorrow?.. I would never tell the market what to do. If it finishes the week high, I would only grow more bearish.
SPY momentum is reversing - Lots of DIVERGENCECurrently there is some divergence between the ROC and the price of SPY. ROC (rate of change) is a momentum indicator.
There have been multiple divergences like this before, and each one resulted in a trend reversal.
The ROC has moved back towards the mid-line, which is a sign of waning momentum. If we cross below the mid-line (0 value) then we could see some downward momentum and lots of selling.
We also just hit the 21-period moving average in the previous session. If we cannot stay above it then I will remain bearish.
SPY rising wedge looks eerily similar to post-covid rallyLots of similarities between the two rising wedges (orange lines).
Both have a double top in the RSI.
Both rallies about 150 days long.
Both rallies breached the upper resistance level of the wedge.
In both instances, a correction of about 7% gets us back to the green support line.
If we break down from that, then the purple line should be the next support level (assuming things play out the same way).
QQQ poised to outperform SPY?This chart is the ratio between QQQ and SPY. When the ratio increases, it means QQQ is outperforming SPY.
Just recently the ratio broke out of a symmetrical triangle, and now we may be entering into an ascending channel (purple lines).
If we can manage to stay within the ascending channel, then it's safe to assume that QQQ could outperform SPY by 5 percentage points in the short term. E.g. if SPY returns 10% in a month, then QQQ returns 15% - a difference of 5 percentage points.
If we break out from the ascending channel and move higher, then QQQ could really outperform SPY.
What about S&P 500?It seems the journey is still going on// Even though it is charming I cannot say it is cheap to buy and hold except some energy companies.
in my opinion the next target is 4130!
If you are a long term investor then no worries but if you are not then you may consider the better options
I know it is already bought higher than its worth but the governments need to feed the markets in these bad days so money needs been put somewhere, right? Maybe the new Everest will be seen .. who knows!
I wish you good profit!
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S&P500 Sells running, lets see how it rolls. 👍🙏Entry details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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Thank you.
Darren
Battle of the BondsA good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals.
Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he let's it be known that he's not just expecting to see inflation above 2%; he's actively trying to get there.
Signal two; EU self-sabotaging vaccine efforts. In what can only be described as one of the goofiest screw-ups in political theater, Germany abruptly decided that fringe occurrences of blood clotting - a very preventable event in most since the invention of aspirin - was more important than the lives of people who need the vaccine and their GDP, so they canned the Oxford vaccine. Other weak-kneed leaders followed suit and we get signal three.
Signal three; oil collapse Introduce the possibility of EU's vaccination efforts taking a little extra time and voila; oil is back to March 1 prices. Congrats. Go buy it now, because if there's one thing that inflation is really going to set in on, it's oil, and this Vaccine scare is a joke so it's on sale for a bit. Anyhow, this rapid deflationary event is one of those mixed signals. If the bond market is quickly trying to factor in inflation, yet the oil market is trying to factor in a drastic drop in anticipated demand, what gives.
Granted some of those events are foreign while the inflationary anticipation is more domestic, in the broader market - the market that the big money operates in - this is a confusing signal. One piece of the market saying economic activity is ramping up, and the other saying that it's delayed (and JPow saying that he will not settle for anything less than 2% inflation or more).
So what does this mean for you, the lowly SPY trader? Welp, who knows? It really depends on if these two elements of the market both stabilize tomorrow and Powell keeps his mount shut. In the near term, I expect a pretty rapid leg up again, and I don't think $400 is out of the question for the next few days. But I've highlighted the flow ocillator that shows an eerily similar pattern to our last bath. What is different is that the MAC-ZVWAP is much more virulent than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that any dip would be brief.
If you're looking for advice - which this is not investment advise just entertainment - it would be to be nimble and not be scared to buy if we it the 20 day ema tomorrow morning, but avoid if we reach it in the afternoon. Also don't be afraid to short. Or don't be afraid to sit this one out.
Is the S&P 500 Overheated?While my prior projections for the S&P have been trash, I still believe we will see a pull back in 2021 as we are still over-heated. Ideally, I would want it to trade sideways to catchup to the true mean.
S&P: Why your shorts aren't winningHave you been shorting this bull market wondering why you're not winning?
I've been getting direct messages asking me when is it a good time to short or why when there is a reversal candle there is no follow through to the downside.
Zooming out to the 2 day chart I think you can see why. We are in a massive uptrend channel since early last year right after the big COVID drop.
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND
As of today, I would not be trying to short or even go long. I think the market is too risky and is coming up to heavy resistance.
We need a big pullback before I think the S&P becomes attractive. Where is that pullback? I may end up waiting to see it pullback closer to the bottom of the channel (with retest) to go long. I'll also take a breakout of the top of the channel (with retest).
Why not short when it reaches to the top of the channel? We are in a strong uptrend and going short is not recommended. Some may take the short at the top of the channel and be rewarded. It's just not my type of trade. I like trades with higher probability.
Hopefully this view makes it much more clear why if you've been shorting the market since March 2020, you have been on the wrong side of the trade.
I will be a seller if the bottom of the channel breaks to the downside (with retest). Then I think shorting will become attractive.
Good luck trading.
"When it feels really right it's probably wrong and when it feels really wrong it's probably right."