Feb 24, 22 S&P 500 - 140 pt Take ProfitCrazy world we live in - who would think in 2022 that a country would actually invade another country forcefully.
With that going on, the index crashed obviously, actually all of them did. I put my order in a few days ago hoping price would get down to 4200. I put my TP there but price action almost hit 4100. I'm not complaining though - from 4340 to 4200 is still a decent profit.
Once Biden made an address a few hours ago, price action reversed and started to come up. I decided to stay out of the market just in case price action went wonky. I will re-asses the markets and keep you all updated tomorrow.
From my and my family to all the families that are hurting over in Ukraine/Russia, we wish you all the best to stay safe and we pray for a speedy end to this invasion.
HEIKO
Sandpshort
Feb 21, 2022 S&P500 Sell-The Big One?Could this be it? The BIG one we have all been waiting for? At least I have been waiting for it. Has ALL the forces come together in the perfect storm to have the S&P drop 30% or 40%??
I know it's going to happen, just don't know when. But so far my Sell order is doing well.
Next up is 4200 level - this is a good psycholgical level and will be a decent support level - if however price action smashes through this level and keeps on going down, who knows when it's going to stop.
Every 100 points will be a bit of a support level and of course 4000 even will be a major support.
Anyway, my plan is to put in another Sell Order at around 4180 if price action crashes through the 4200 level. I will keep you posted.
Stay safe.
HEIKO
[-40%] S&P 500 SHORTSell when people are euphoric, bought when there is blood on the street.
Analysis :
- Bearish divergence
- Bullish channel - if we break the bottom, confirmation of the bear trend -
- RSI -> overbought
- Top of the yellow canal has been broken - the last time it was before the crisis of 2000 -
UVXY bounces on pre-March 2020 crash supportUVXY which is a 3x leveraged etf tracking the VIX(volatility index or in simple terms fear in the market) has bounced from the pre march stock market crash support of around $10.5. The RSI has registered higher lows while the OBV looks like more shares are being accumulated. Plus the trading volume has increased considerably over the past few months.
Possible reasons for more upside:
1. Short term correction in S&P after the long 2020 bull run despite the economy being in shambles. Also the greed index is very high with wide consensus that the market will keep going up forever. Possible rotation of large investment bank funds from equities to safe havens such as gold and bitcoin.
2. New stimulus bill not being passed for $2000 instead of $600.
3. Trump not conceding & other election uncertainties.
4. Iran & Israel/US standoff. Israel submarines and US aircraft carries are near the strait of hormuz.
5. China & India standoff. China deployed large amounts of radars & air force personnel in the Ladakh border.
6. Another country wide Covid shutdown due to a new strain.
7. Vaccine delays or issues of unintended side effects
8. Trade wars affecting supply chains. This is already happening.
Possible reasons for downside:
1. Fed injecting more magic money into the system.
Suggestions:
Buy some January & February call options . Do not hold this long term. It has a high decay due to being 3x leveraged!
Move funds into undervalued sectors such as commodities.
Note:
This is not financial advise. Please do your own research.
The USA is in danger i dont think it matters who wins (I'm talking stock wise) the USA has been printing more then ever before + an overwhelming amount of covid cases. Bossiness cant be taking and taking without giving back the money. there are so many factors to what is going wrong with and in America but the stock market doesn't look too good either the 12M is on a TD green 9 meaning its maxed out and needs to fall.
this is the wall for now
good luck trading
SPX500 update The sell off, or correction has begun.
Now we are at an interest area now where for the second weekly candle close is bearish. Now to some this is a healthy correction or to others the start of a bearish crash prone to a host of reason which we have explained before.
We are continuing to hold short positions - again the long term here is to hold to the low of March and beyond [if price shows us a structure to add positions along the way down.
The window of opportunity to sell is between August - November - think of the fundamentals attached - that and a newly tested area below to retest.
We must note - in order to be successful here
patience is key
Risk management on the trade is pivotal and once enough in profit - put stop loss to breakeven.
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Spx500 wave analysis shortHello traders and analysts,
Here is our take on the Elliot wave 5 wave, now a larger 3 wave correction needed to take place? .
Technicals?
We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure.
we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline.
From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking.
Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial.
Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap.
Fundamentals:
US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning.
We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment
Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding
High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities.
Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy.
US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit.
Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high.
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KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
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Team Lupa
E-mini S&P500 intradayHello traders,
The E-Mini S&P500 future has marked a high volume with that special candle. We expect an increasing trend right now. It will try to increase in order to reach the resistance R0. If it breaks R0 it will try to reach R1.
But if it can’t reach R0, we should wait that first red volume and candle to sell and take profit.
Possible inverse head and shoulder forming?The S&P has finally retraced back to the all-time highs! However, there are quite a few Bearish divergences forming in the chart which leads me to believe a larger correction is coming. This possible correction may lead to a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern which in return is Bullish for the macro trend. If we were to retrace back down to the.618 fib level then rally back to retest all-time highs, we could get a bull break that can take the markets to new highs. For now, we wait and see what happens but the overall macro trend is bullish so far. The recommended course of action is to buy the dips if you're a long term investor or if you want to trade open up a short at current levels and see if the market pulls back. If you like my analysis please leave a like comment and follow will gladly appreciate it :)
S&P approaching resistance, potential drop!S&P is approaching our first resistance at 2797.60 (horizontal overlap resistance, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 2631.22 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal swing low support)
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SHORT S&P approaching resistance, potential drop!S&P is approaching our first resistance at 2797.60 (horizontal overlap resistance, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 2631.22 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal swing low support)
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
LONG S&P Bounced Off Support, Prepare For A Further Rise!S&P bounced nicely off its support at 2679.59 (horizontal overlap support, 100% fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement ) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 2755.11(61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension ).
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
S&P Bounced Off Support, Prepare For A Further Rise!S&P bounced nicely off its support at 2679.59 (horizontal overlap support, 100% fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement ) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 2740.46(61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension).
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
S&P Testing Support, Prepare For A BounceS&P is approaching our first support at 2687.75 (horizontal overlap support, 100% Fibonacci extension , 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 2790.51 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price above this level.
S&P500 Is Going To 2400$!Can You See That Negative Divergence? ( When two or more indicators, indexes, or averages, fail to show confirming trends. A negative Divergence occurs when a price index is making a higher top at the same time a technical indicator is flat or making a lower top. )
TP 1: 2600
TP 2: 2500
TP 3: 2400
Good Luck!