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Santarally

ALT COIN SEASON! - #ALTSEASON ALTCOIN Dominance VS BITCOIN/USD. - Showing synergies between 2019 - 2020 BTC/USD CYCLE. *Identifying the relief rally - followed by a 70% correction. This chart shows how Altcoin dominance performed.. During the relief rally Peak - Followed by the 70% correction. liquidity transferring from the King currency by MARKET CAP (BITCOIN) to smaller Altcoins - Projecting synergies for 2023 - 2024 BTC/USD CYCLE. *Identifying the relief rally 2023 and projections for 2024. This shows current market price of BTC and current ALTCOIN performance. *percentage % and days it took to reach similar performance. Something to consider over the winter season as Santa clause rally comes to an end. Today we have BITCOIN + ETHERUEM ETF Hype leading into January. But also countries on the brink of a recessionary Awakening. *This chart show's how Altcoins could perform if we see BTC take the same 70% correction. *If BTC Broke out of this very identical relief rally strong enough to disregard 2019 - 2020 cycle repeating... we could expect Altcoin dominance rally much higher. Potential ETF's could be the catalyst! Hope you find this useful.. Wishing everyone a BULLISH NEW YEAR!! In the meantime - ENJOY THE FESTIVE SEASON.. MERRY CHRISTMAS TOO EVERYONE!
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D
by dibz1996
Far Side of the MoonTarget 4800 nearly there in AH trade. Looking back, a long EW for 1k pips from 3800 is apparent. Summer rally was 3rd wave, this is the 5th. On this chart, target the Dark Side of the Moon. Wish you were here! All bets off after that. Close your longs soon folks. Then get out your Floyd vinyls and do the timewarp again. Triple Witching Friday, RSI madly overbought, ATH. Gonna get choppy. Might get a visit from the Grinch. Do not expect a massive dump right away. Tops will chop and grind, pump-dump-pump-dump. it will not be a single point, rather a plateau. Good time to take a break from the madness. Correction in the New Year. Then we shall see. Happy Holidays!
TVC:SPX
by DaddySawbucks
2
Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon! As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work. To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons: 1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan. 2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently. 3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year. 4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting. With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs. Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda. This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year. A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February. This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%. Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls. Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation. Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.fool.com www.jstor.org
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by inspirante
14
Santa Rally for Altcoins on the cardsTOTAL3, an indicator of altcoin market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has made a significant move🔔. We've breached and closed above on a weekly timeframe some serious key levels. And are above the Bear Market high. By surpassing and maintaining above the bear market high on a weekly timeframe. While this doesn't mean we won't see a pullback in the near future, it does set up some nice space to move leading up to the BTC halving. It also comes at a timely point in the macro landscape, with the US monetary policymakers this week agreeing that rates will be dropping in 2024. With 3 rate cuts planned at this stage. These tailwinds, combined with Bitcoin potentially ranging, could see a swell of liquidity returning to the #altcoin markets. 🎅 #SantaRally?
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by PHundal
S&P closes low, but is this the end to it?Stock Market Update: S&P Shows Low Movement, But Advancements Expected The $S&P500 index exhibited low movement today, initially dipping -0.20% but quickly regaining ground to close with a slight negative of -0.1%. The market's resilience in maintaining and even advancing current price levels is surprising. In the short term (1-2 months), there's a higher probability of further advancement towards the 4553-4570 range, provided support is held above the daily resistance level of 4523. NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia's strong earnings report, released after market close, reinforces the likelihood of an upward move. Nvidia, along with Tesla, collectively accounts for nearly 70% of the S&P's daily trading volume. The recent slump in the Wholesale industry may discourage investors with a 3+ month investment horizon. However, for shorter-term investors (1-2 months), the upcoming Black Friday and Holiday season could lead to unexpectedly strong performance from other retail companies.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Kim_CLSPX
Black Friday Buzz for AMZNThe Giant of e-commerce and AWS for small businesses, which now has AI integrated, is moving up in anticipation of a strong Black Friday for $NASDAQ:AMZN. The new CEO who took over form Jeff Bezos is doing a good job. As the CEO of the AWS division, he did an amazing job building that division of AMZN. Outstanding CEOs make a company great. CEOs are more important than most investors realize. Weekly Chart shows that AMZN is about 40 points from its all-time high, so plenty of opportunity for it to move up further from here. The Blue lines indicate levels where Dark Pool buy zones and Pro traders moved in most heavily. These are now strong support levels for the stock.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
20% upside in APPLEThe stock set into an impulse in Jan 2023 and completed the first wave up by Feb 2023 and corrected thereafter till the first week of march. The wave 3 in the stock began in march 2023 and went on all the way till July and there after the stock was in complex wave 4 correction until last week. The stock is now coming out of the 4th wave correction and could give a great "Santa Rally" beginning in November and extending till Christmas Day(or beyond). The target for the 5th wave is projected around 205-210 zone.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
2
SPY Price action is a bit different this time aroundUmmm, the fast and short answer is that I am overall bearish on the SPY and anticipate we ultimately get rejected from this ATH (all time high) trendline ...however, it is starting to get complicated, lol. Disclaimer: Be aware the following comments are just my observations and I am not a professional trader. I am school teacher by day and stock junky by night, lol. I just enjoy looking at the charts, doing light TA and occasionally making a little money, lol. Anyways, here we go: We have finally reached the major downward sloping trend line or what I call the all time high trendline (ATH). There is the possibility that we can get a slight push above the ATH (all time high) trendline (currently $408-$407.5) - with the more likely contested area being between $409 - $415. I’m still a bit confused as to why anyone would think SPY would ever "breakout" above of this downtrend now. Our government is aggressively trying to reverse inflation - a breakout would be fighting against their efforts. I know I've said this a few times before - but a breakout would be flirting with a bull market - and I guess if that were to happen, I'd imagine that the FED would not only continue interest rate hikes, but they would also become even more aggressive. With that being said, I guess it would be judicious for me to also explore the bullish side of all of this, lol. Price action has been unusual and unlike the past two occasions we’ve approached the ATH trendline, this time has been with tremendous momentum. Also, it’s worth noting we’ve been in the general trend line area for over 3 days. The first time we touch the trendline (March 29th) we spent about 24 hours before diving back down. The second time (August 16th) we were rejected immediately. However, this time around we tagged the trend line around 3-4 times and even broke above it one of those days. Here is a pic of the charts for comparison: This could mean nothing at all – but I do think it is important to note that this time around it has been different. Perhaps it is signaling that the bear market is near it’s end but we might have one more leg down coming. …Oh and I just want to address one more thing, lol. The “Christmas Rally” - for all those who might be confused about when Christmas rallies typically occur, here you go: “A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the week leading up to Dec. 25.” Santa Claus Rally Definition (investopedia.com) A very real possibility is that SPY begins that leg down now (as in next week, lol), creates the ultimate bottom (possibly the $330 area) and then Santa comes along sometime after the 18th and saves Christmas – and the market, lol.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DansGoneFishing
3
Possible rally into start of new year, then bearish continuationRiding long for now various alt names and equities. Thinking Fed pivot could fuel a rally into year end, then a new stimulus will cause the rally to lose steam sometime late January. Will try to sell around then. Anticipating new lows in Q2 2023, looking to go long in the bottom range there around BTC 10-12k across various crypto names. Think equities will make new lows as well, or possibly double bottom near recent lows. #santarally
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by jordsan
SPX- surprise Rally aheadThe 5 th wave fall on 3rd Nov'22 had not moved down the index significantly. hence we must recall the wave count that ,the correction (5 wave downfall ) is completed in the form of a neutral triangle abcde. Provided the low of 3rd Nov'22 (3698) respected(should not break). If this is so, until 11th Nov, all 5 waves of Expanding triangle A,B,C,D,E has been completed, and a new recovery wave ABC (3 waves)will start. This may begin with a santa claus rally from 14th Nov'22
SP:SPXLong
by selvamB
3
🎅🎄SANRA RALLY in CRYPTO❗ What is it and why does it happen❓🔥🔥Hi friends! Today I have prepared an article for you about perhaps the most highly anticipated event of 2022. This applies to any market, but more so to cryptocurrencies. We will talk about 🎅Santa Rally. 📊 WHAT IS A SANTA RALLY❓ Santa Rally is a period in the market of cryptocurrencies, stocks and indexes before and a little after the New Year holidays ( mid-November to mid-January). This term came to the cryptocurrency market from the stock market. Now stocks show more strength than cryptocurrencies and have already started their growth and a small but "Santa Rally". 🚩 Cryptocurrencies continue to make lower lows (LL) due to the FTX case and strong fear among buyers.

 📊 WHY IS THE SANTA RALLY HAPPENING❓WHAT MAKES CRYPTO, STOCKS, INDIXES GROW IN THIS PERIOD❓ Usually, the 4th quarter (the last quarter of the year) is a period of big holidays, which means an increase in the number of sales in most companies in almost all sectors of the economy. Many people buy gifts, new equipment, etc. The growth of company profits triggers the growth of companies' stocks.

 Also, a certain number of people want to invest in any asset with the belief in its further growth next year. This is not a strong, but an additional factor why crypto and stocks are growing. Bitcoin quarterly returns(%). Bitcoin Q4 return marked in red. Additionally, I marker the Q1 in white to show you what happen to BTC after Santa Rally🎅 📊 WHAT HAPPENS IN THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET DURING SANTA RALLY🎅❓ There are 5 cases on the chart from 2017 to 2021 and 80% of them are quite successful. 🔥 2017: the end of the bull market, real Santa Rally🎅 I think that's when most of you knew about the cryptocurrency market. I hope that this is when you were selling crypto, not buying. 🔥 2018: the end of the bearish market, the beginning of the bull market. Consolidation of Bitcoin and volatility +-20%. We see something similar to that situation now. After that, there was another consolidation, after which Bitcoin rose to 14 k. 🔥 2019: the consolidation again before the local growth. A good entry point to spot positions, a strong level of support. After that, Bitcoin grew from 6k to 9k by 50% in just 1.5 months. What happened after this growth is already history. 🔥 2020: a great example of a Santa Rally🎅 December 2020 fell just in the middle of the bull market, when the price rose from 20k to 33-35k in just a few weeks. 🔥 2021: also a consolidation, but this example is quite unusual for a Santa Rally. Usually, after consolidation, Bitcoin grew, at least locally. ✅ As you can see from the examples, the Santa Rally🎅 period was quite successful from 2017 to 2020. In December, there was always either consolidation before growth or strong growth itself. And only in 2021 there was a consolidation before the fall, not before the growth. This shows how much the cycle has "deviated from it's course". Most likely, that December should have ended with the final growth, but the problems with the economy in the United States, the strengthening of the dollar and other more minor problems did not allow Bitcoin to do it. 

 📊 WHAT WILL BE THE SANTA RALLY🎅 IN 2022❓ Bitcoin spent 3 out of 5 cases in consolidation, and in the other 2 cases showed strong growth. This means that in high probability, consolidation is the most likely option. Fortunately, there was no big drop in December. ✅ 

Friends, in this idea you have learned what the Santa Rally is, why it happens. Now you know with a high probability what will happen now in 2022, so you can already make your trading plans. Traders, was this article useful? What is your opinion about Bitcoin at the Santa Rally🎅 in 2022? It would be interesting to know the thoughts and expectations of my subscribers! 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade
by Yuriy_Bishko
5
Cautious Optimism Into the New YearCautious Optimism best describes my feelings about how this santa rally will end. Santa Musk continues to mess with shorts as he unwinds his options Tranches. Is he done yet? who knows, but it's fun to watch. As for futures, a fairly balanced day yesterday. After the bull run we had, one should expect a cooling off period. If RSI on the 4hr bounces off 64.5 like it did in OCTs rally I would expect the sleigh ride to keep running through the new year. Overnight both Bitcoin and Futures were flat. Going into Dec 31, I was expecting weakness as a result of JPM trade But over at SpotGamma youtube he explains a different impact. twitter.com TLDW: Dealers will need to cover shorts on futures. Futures go Up... My expectations is flat today, then short squeezes and volatility into the new year. Maybe a few more all time highs My Observations. Not Financial Advice. Happy New Years traders. trade smart.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME