Saudiarabia
Tadawul Index startet mit - 7% Seit Anfang des Jahres hat der saudische Aktienindex „ #Tadawul All Shares Index“ rund 20 Prozent an Wert verloren. Aktienmarkt brach heute um rund 7 % ein – (Heute? – Ja in einigen muslimischen Staaten ist Freitags statt Sonntags die Börse geschlossen) #Moodys hat den Ausblick für die Finanzkraft des Landes am Freitag bereits auf negativ gesenkt. Fragt sich wie lange #SaudiArabia und die #OPEC den Öl-Streit aushalten können?
SAUDI TELECOM has potential to go up (More Confirmation Needed)TADAWUL:7010 has a considerable potential to go up but to consider buying this stock , confirmation is needed .I think a good confirmation would be to have price closing considerably above the green line (above the 93 area) in an upcoming day .After we get this confirmation , price is very likely to continue going up until around the 103 area .I am convinced that it would be wise to HOLD this stock right now as long as it doesn't close considerably below the 86 mark because I think it has a good potential (Long term) .
Still lower oil price ahead?We finally got a joint statement on Sunday afternoon.
OPEC+ is willing to cut the global oil production in amount of 9.7 million barrels per day.
That’s very much but it has to be more.
The investment bank Goldman Sachs just recently said that they believe a cut as high as 15 million barrels per day will be necessary to push the oil price higher again and away from it's lows.
For the moment it looks like the statement can stabilize price but I don’t think that this will be sustainable.
Bad market environment caused by the corona virus and not enough cutting further on could lead to a lower oil price again. I even think it’s possible that we will test the last lows of the market and go deeper.
What we can see at the moment are oil prices where it makes no sense for the manufacturers to produce it, cause the cost of it is higher than the price when they sell it. So very bad situation.
On the other side they have to sell it to generate an income stream.
I guess thats also the reason why so many countries struggle to cut production at the moment, its a classic dilemma.
Blood OilI think by end of day we will see a decent decline in oil. USO will test 4.5 by EOD as nerves grow on a OPEC deal. I don't believe a favorable deal will be achieved between Saudi, Russia, & US on Thursday, which fill further plummet oil. Saudi & Russia are looking to claw back market share from the US and want to see US shale belly up.
BRN Following the current situation we have 2 basic scenarios about oil price:
1. Yellow: USA already started some jawboning about support for their oil industry and etc, and we should not forget that normally such cautious talks are about to "measure" the possible reaction. So we wait here some possible reaction, probably going up till 40 and then falling again to retest the bottom.
2. Green: in this case we don't consider to see any huge up movement, but the slower continuation of going down.
CRUDE OIL| Multi Year Support|Price BattleEvening Traders,
Today’s technical analysis will focus on CRUDE OIL with its biggest gap down ever, breaking a key local resistance that is likely to be tested with an oversold bounce.
Points to consider,
- Local yearly support breached
- Multi-year structural support in confluence with Fibonacci Extension
- RSI in oversold territory
- Stochastics in lower regions
The coming weeks for Crude Oil will be crucial especially in the current economic turmoil. Local support has been breached promptly with a full body candle close setting one of the largest gap opens.
Structural support is in confluence with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension, this level was respected by the bulls with a strong wick up. The Stochastics on the other hand is in the lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside.
Overall in my opinion, CRUDE OIL needs to rebound and close above local resistance. If an S/R flip is confirmed at local resistance, then the likelihood of lower levels increase greatly.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“Sheer will and determination is no substitute for something that actually works.” – Jason Klatt
Oil Opens Down -25%! More downside?So did look at this chart on the weekly. We had an initial downside move after multiple higher lows and higher highs, and we were expecting a lower high swing to be made. This did not happen for many months. The 61.8 fib held, and just on Friday, we confirmed our first lower high swing because remember, to confirm a swing, we need a new lower low (in a downtrend).
Now come Sunday open, the move continued more than I expected and we cut through the first fib zone. Next fib target would be around 21... we should not see that anytime soon, but with this market volatility, anything is possible.
So I have spoken before on why OPEC production cuts do not work. Say oil is at 50, and a production cut is agreed on to take oil to 60. If the demand for oil has not changed, an OPEC member has the incentive to cheat on the deal, and produce as many barrels as they were before and sell them at 60 for more profit. Once other members find out about this, they all start producing the same as before and then price goes back to where it was and you are back to where you first began before the production cut.
What angered the Saudi's was the fact that if demand remained the same, their market share was taken away. It was taken away by Iran who supplied mostly to China and other Asian nations...the fact they accepted any other currency other than the US Dollar was helpful too...and will also increase their market share when we see the US Dollar move higher.
Now, we know there are recession fears. Many nations know that oil will be heading lower. Yes, shale did bring a lot of supply to the market. The US became energy independent, and brought on a lot of supply adding to the supply glut. And yes, bringing oil prices down will impact shale production...but more importantly, it will hurt the banks, who were forced to loan to these oil/shale companies the last time oil fell in order to prevent massive layoffs. They will pay for it now. These are zombie companies, needing more debt just to stay afloat (maybe lower rates will help them out).
So, going back to the idea that nations know oil prices will fall due to the looming recession. If you are Russia, or Iran and know this, you want to pump as much as you can now, to make as much money as you can. Media is using the shale production story, which sure might be true. However, I think Saudi Arabia doing the Aramco IPO was a telling sign of this eventually occurring.