Saudiarabia
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas)
has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% .
This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! .
Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity.
Congratulations to those who took action.
(Calm before Winter's Storm Idea;
Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts)
We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence,
leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone
(which may not be reached now due to the conflict)
*** NOTE
This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research with your own diligence and
consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity
with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and
journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
Oil - Almost time to short?Oil is running into some pretty pivotal resistance.
You have to imagine Powell and elected officials want to get the price per barrel lower heading into election campaign and this inflation regime.
A bearish daily divergence just started but does not mean its time to short. A quick scan at these levels may be attainable but I think if we get one more final move into the next Fib level it would be a better R&R setup .
TSLA to BUY & HOLDDear investors,
Based on my chart analysis of TSLA, I highly recommend buying the stock. My analysis indicates a high probability that TSLA is in a bullish trend. The stock has been consistently climbing in recent months, breaking through key resistance levels, and showing strong buying momentum. Additionally, the stock has successfully broken through a 5-month bearish channel, which is a positive sign for the future of the stock.
It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and it is always recommended to conduct your own analysis and assest your portofolio situation before making any investment decisions. Additionally, the market is constantly changing, therefore it's important to keep contact with me for any future adjustements.
Overall, the chart analysis suggests that TSLA is a strong buy for investors looking to gain exposure to the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.
ANALYSIS ON 1302Dear Saudi Traders and Investors, I'm sharing with you an analysis on one of my favorite stocks to trade, I've been leading Investors and Traders on it for a year and half now, now while waiting for a Trade to take on it, I said why not to share an analysis with you.
Yoy can notice on the chart that the price was going in an uptrend for 4 months before it gives us a squeeze to close our Trades and so they investors exit take their profits out, now we're waiting for a confirmation to sell the stock and take the downtrend again.
For further information, don't hesitate to ask!
TSLA in Early Talks with Saudi Arabia to Open EV FactoryBrace yourselves, because Tesla (TSLA) is in early discussions with none other than Saudi Arabia to establish a groundbreaking electric vehicle (EV) factory. This announcement has sent shockwaves through the market, and I couldn't be more excited to share the potential it holds for all of us.
Imagine the possibilities! Tesla, the trailblazer in the EV industry, joining forces with one of the world's most influential nations. This collaboration has the potential to reshape the future of transportation and solidify Tesla's position as the undisputed leader in the EV market.
The Saudi Arabian government, recognizing the immense potential of electric vehicles, is keen to invest in this transformative technology. They understand that Tesla's visionary approach and groundbreaking innovations have revolutionized the automobile industry, and they want to be a part of this remarkable journey. This early-stage discussion indicates a strong commitment from both parties to drive sustainable mobility forward.
Now, let's talk about the enormous opportunities this collaboration presents for us as traders. The potential establishment of an EV factory in Saudi Arabia could translate into a significant boost in production capacity for Tesla, enabling it to meet the ever-growing global demand for electric vehicles. This expansion would undoubtedly lead to increased revenue and, consequently, a potential surge in TSLA stock value.
So, where does this leave us? It's time to seize this moment and consider a long position on TSLA. With the early talks between Tesla and Saudi Arabia underway, we have a unique chance to ride the wave of optimism and reap the rewards of this potentially game-changing partnership.
In light of this exciting news, I urge you to conduct your due diligence and analyze the potential impact this collaboration could have on Tesla's market position and stock performance. Keep a close eye on any further developments and market indicators that could influence TSLA's trajectory.
Remember, successful traders are always alert to emerging opportunities, and this collaboration between Tesla and Saudi Arabia has the potential to be a game-changer. Don't miss out on the chance to be part of this electrifying journey!
Stay tuned for more updates, and let's ride the wave of innovation together!
www.wsj.com
Worrisome ? Saudi Arabia is appearing in the global marketThe development and use of artificial intelligence has been a source of much discussion and concern around the world. In this scenario, a country that has long been overlooked in the technological area begins to emerge; Saudi Arabia. It is a controversial country, which participates in several conflicts in the region, directly or indirectly, and which has a bad record of human rights. However, it seeks to modernize and become a technological hub in the region. To do this, it adopts a curious strategy: investing in soccer. The Saudi national championship features names like Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar Junior, as well as some European coaches, who were hired for astronomical values. But what is the purpose of this? It is not just a passion for the sport, but rather a way of diversifying its image and attracting investments.
Macroeconomics
As the largest Arab economy and one of the largest in the world, Saudi Arabia expects to reach a GDP of over 1 trillion dollars in 2023. However, its economic performance still faces many challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, public debt and current account deficit. In addition, the kingdom seeks to reduce its dependence on oil, whose prices are unstable and subject to external shocks. An example of this was the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused a 4.1% drop in GDP in 2020. Faced with this scenario, the Saudi government implemented measures of fiscal stimulus, public accounts adjustment and economic and social diversification, within the framework of the Vision 2030 plan. These measures favored the recovery of the economy in 2021, with an estimated growth of 8%. For the next few years, the prospects are positive, but moderate: a growth of 3.1% is expected in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024.
Table of data for 2020 and current 2023:
Source: Nasdaq.com; Al-Monitor
The Saudi oil sector
It is controlled by the state-owned Saudi Aramco, the largest company in the world in market value and oil extraction. It produces 9.2 million bpd (barrels of oil per day), 9% of world production and half of the bloc’s capacity. The company also influences the global fossil fuel market by its extraction policy and its agreements with OPEC+. In 2020, it led an agreement of the organization to reduce extraction by 9.7 million bpd, 10% of global supply, until April 2021. In 2023, it also announced voluntary cuts in its extraction, with Riyadh saying it would reduce oil by 400 thousand bpd from May until the end of 2023. In addition, it extended the voluntary cut of one million bpd for another month, until July 2023. These measures aim to balance the fossil fuel market and avoid an oversupply.
In August 2021, the price of Brent (international reference) was around US$ 72 per barrel, an increase of about 40% compared to the beginning of the year.
And a recovery of about 80% compared to the lowest level recorded in April 2020 (US$ 40 per barrel). This high was sustained by the reduction of OPEC+ supply, by the improvement of demand with vaccination and by the expectation of a global economic recovery.
The oil sector faces uncertainties and risks, such as the Delta variant of Covid-19, which can reduce the demand for oil, geopolitical tensions and the energy transition to renewable sources. Remember that the war between Russia and Ukraine has a direct impact on this sector, as oil is a strategic and essential resource for the development of many countries. Factors such as supply shortage, energy insecurity, geopolitical tension and emergency stock release affect fossil fuel prices, generating impacts on inflation, transportation, production, and consumption. How to solve this problem? It is important to seek peaceful and diplomatic solutions for the conflict in Ukraine, as well as sustainable and renewable alternatives for the global energy matrix. Oil consumption depends mainly on the level of economic activity of consumer and importer countries, which can increase or decrease their demand.
WTI and Brent Oil Technical Analysis
WTI Futures
To be more precise, WTI suffered a slight drop from 127 to 66.87, resulting in a range between 69.84. In the chart below, we can observe that this corresponds to an accumulation pattern, based on Wyckoff’s structure. Stock data of this fossil fuel still indicate scarcity, as extraction was reduced since the beginning of the pandemic. There was a significant decrease in extraction between 2021 and 2022, compared to the period from 2017 to 2019, when it was much higher. In addition, the ESG sustainable movement agendas have long sought to reduce oil extraction, aiming to raise awareness about the use of fossil fuels worldwide. A more detailed analysis of the daily oil chart reveals an accumulation range. In the month of June, there was a significant increase in buying volume, indicating investor interest in buying. I believe this accumulation range will last for some time. After that, investors should wait for signs of interest rate cuts, which may occur in 2024. Jerome Powell does not signal a cut, but rather increases in interest rates. As we know, lowering inflation in the US economy is a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which directly affects the price of crude oil.
The same pattern seems to repeat itself when we examine the Brent oil CFD. Again, we observe an accumulation structure during this period. We can also identify a bearish channel. Even with the buying flow since June, the market may return to the range between 86 and 70 until there are signs of improvement in economic data.
What I mean by that is that Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates, took advantage of the appreciation of oil to generate more wealth and profitability. This positively impacted the Middle Eastern countries. High oil prices benefited the countries, which increased their production, revenue and geopolitical influence, and they bought clubs, made sports partnerships, opening doors for diversification.
Country’s Investments in Technology
Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars in technology and innovation, as part of its plan for economic diversification and social modernization. The country has sought to become a hub for research and development in areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, biotechnology, robotics, and cybersecurity. One of the examples of these investments is the purchase of 3,000 H100 chips from Nvidia, each valued at US$ 40,000, by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust), a national public research institution. These chips are essential for the development of artificial intelligence software, especially those based on the GPT-3 model. Kaust plans to use Nvidia’s chips to create its own ChatGPT, an intelligent conversation system that can interact with users in Arabic and English, answering questions, providing information and offering services. In addition to Kaust, other national institutions and companies have also bought chips from Nvidia to develop artificial intelligence projects. For example, the Saudi Telecom Company (STC), the largest telecommunications operator in the country, acquired 1,000 H100 chips to create a cloud computing platform that offers AI services to corporate and governmental customers.
As we explore the implications of Saudi Arabia’s controversial ambitions, it is essential to consider how these actions are shaping global relations and, more specifically, the impact they have on leading companies in the technological scenario, such as Nvidia.
What does NVIDIA have to do with it?
Nvidia has stood out remarkably in relation to other companies in the development of chips for artificial intelligence, arousing the interest of Middle Eastern countries. But, this rise, caused some concerns to the United States, which began to impose trade restrictions in the region. To better understand why Nvidia has stood out in this scenario, I decided to create a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Let’s explore the reasons behind Nvidia’s continued success in the field of technology.
My goal is to show how Nvidia is benefiting from innovation in its sector and how this can impact its market performance.
Qualitative analysis NVIDIA
Nvidia is a company known for its products aimed at gaming, but that also stands out in the sector and in the race of artificial intelligences. The company positions itself as a leader and reference in this field, being one of the most valuable in the world. In 2020, its revenue was US$ 16.68 billion and, in August 2021, its market value was US$ 538 billion. With more than 18 thousand employees in more than 30 countries, Nvidia has strategic partnerships with technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla.
Relevant Details of the Sector of Activity:
The semiconductor sector, in which Nvidia operates, is very competitive and innovative. Semiconductors are essential for the manufacture of electronic components and require efficient chips to meet growing demands. Nvidia differentiates itself by its experience in GPUs optimized for parallel processing and AI. In addition to having a solid presence in games, the company also offers solutions for cloud, data centers, IoT and other areas. For this, it invests continuously in research and development.
SWOT analysis:
_____
Strengths:
* Market leadership in the CCaaS segment.
* An open and flexible platform that integrates various cloud communication and collaboration solutions.
* High quality and security of the services offered by the company.
* Strong revenue and profit growth in recent years.
Weaknesses:
* Dependence on the North American market, which accounts for approximately 70% of the company's revenue.
* Vulnerability to cyberattacks and privacy breaches.
* Difficulty in retaining and attracting qualified talent in the technology sector.
Opportunities:
* Increased demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and trends in hybrid work and online education.
* Expansion into new geographical markets and customer segments.
Development of new products and services that add value to customers and generate recurring revenue.
* Strategic partnerships with other technology companies to enhance integration and interoperability of the company's solutions.
Threats:
* Intensified competition in the CCaaS segment, with the entry or strengthening of major market players such as Microsoft, Google, Cisco, and Facebook.
* Regulatory or legal changes that could impact the SaaS sector or the CCaaS segment.
* Reduced demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions after the end of the pandemic or the return to in-person activities.
Source: Seeking Alpha
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Fundamental Analysis
Going straight to the point about the financial health and performance of the company. For this, let’s use the financial data from the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 (ended July 31, 2023). The financial indicators that we will consider are: EBITDA, CFO, ROE, ROIC, Gross Margin and Operating Margin.
Source: Yahoo Finance
According to the data, it presents good indicators of profitability, cash generation and margins, despite the drop in revenue and profit compared to the previous year. The company stands out in the data center segment, which grew 61% compared to last year. It faces some challenges, such as Russia’s sanctions and China’s lockdowns, which may affect its performance in the future. But the company continues to invest in innovation and expansion, such as the acquisition of ARM and the launch of the Omniverse platform. NVIDIA is a leader in the graphics chip market, with potential to grow even more in the coming years.
Source: Yahoo Finance
The company has a liquidity of 5.07, which indicates good liquidity. This means that the company has more than enough to cover its short-term obligations.
The company has a debt of 0.19, which indicates low debt. This means that the company has a healthy capital structure and is not heavily leveraged.
We can conclude that Nvidia has a solid financial position and that it can take advantage of growth opportunities in the technology market. It has also shown consistent results and exceeded expectations. That is why it is considered one of the best in the technology sector.
NVIDIA Technical analysis:
Translate: But if we look deeper, the video increases since October 2022. If we look closely at the year 2022, it was a year in which the S&P 500 had a very large devaluation compared to the year 2021:
It's evident that major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE have also been impacted by this performance, with balances well below expectations and generating significant pessimism. From October 2022, we began to observe a gradual recovery in major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE, although this began in June when there was an increase in purchases on June 21. Despite the sharp decline, there was a recovery from this drop, forming a range where investors took advantage of the pessimism to buy stocks. The movement observed at the bottom on October 3 corresponds to a “spring,” indicating the end of the downtrend.
2023 has been a positive year for Nvidia, and the recent surge could further boost share prices if it breaches the 483 region.
After examining the impact of Nvidia on the global technology scenario, we see that technological innovations are not always used positively. We do not know how far Saudi Arabia plans to go, but its ambition and power raise doubts. The country is a controversial figure in the global scenario and with all the investment in technology and innovation, they can generate concerns for the international community. I hope this article was useful and informative for you. Thank you for your reading.
Source: Reuters, Financial Times, Investing.com. Tradingview.com, Yahoo Finance
Oil Long🏌🏻 In the Blinken of an eye 🛢️⛳Let's not BRICS it The US diplomacy has awaken in the past few weeks and we see the following:
Biden stays quiet. Good news
Tony Blinken and others (Yellen included, watch the next post!) are making serious moves the past few days.
Let's talk Oil and Golf:
Antony Blinken, United States Secretary of State visits Saudi Arabia for 3 days.. not one, not two, that is THREE days!
What the media says:
''Blinken’s Visit to Saudi Arabia Caps U.S. Effort to Rebuild Ties
Biden aides are closely watching Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s overtures to China, his attitude toward Israel and his balancing act with Russia and Ukraine.''
What the Professor has to say:
⛳BRICS are around the corner, going for a common currency.
⛳The US dollar, aka 'the petrodollar'* is the World's exchange currency only because Oil trade is done in USD
⛳Saudi Arabia gets to decide (at a huge degree, yes!) if the USD stays as world exchange currency!
⛳Saudi Arabia likes higher Oil prices..(look at recent production cuets)
⛳USA is making a move to normalize their relations with the kingdom and the best way (if not really the Only way) is to help see Oil prices rise!
⛳Inflation is better and the US can now make this move towards 90-130$ barrels...
All this is simplified, if you are into more details read below but first let's talk Golf!
🏌🏻Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is an emotional character
🏌🏻He kissed Putin recently while he didn't even shake hands with Biden (they did the stupid Covid knuckle thing which everyone hates)
🏌🏻At the same time he flirts with the Chinese and the BRICS
🏌🏻As a leader who loves his nation, he wants to re-shape his country’s economy and advance Saudi influence regionally and around the world
🏌🏻He seems to like Golf
🏌🏻 PGA Tour and European tour agree to merge with Saudis and end LIV Golf feud⛳
🏌🏻Good move, Prince happy, Prince adds prestige to his image,
⛳Good move from the US but still: Prince needs higher Oil prices to carry the transition for Saudi Arabia in the new era.... let's not forget that. Inflation is better, time to Pump the price up..let's not BRICS it!
CHART:
I see a breakout and my EMA confirms the move.
80$ is a round number that can act as resistance for a little while... once breached higher 88$ will be fast.
100$ is the mark I would target as first take profit level
120-124$ is the price i could see the Prince smile and the rest of us cry.. Unfortunately he might achieve it (sorry...)
*Understanding Petrodollars
Petrodollars are oil export revenues denominated in U.S. dollars. Petrodollars are not a distinct currency; they are simply U.S. dollars accepted as payment by an oil exporter.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Funny thing: Biden dissapears, the US sends the most serious diplomat they got for 3 days, then Saudi gets the Golf deal and Trump says: The “BIG, BEAUTIFUL” Saudi Golf Deal Is Great News real story!
Links:
www.nytimes.com
apnews.com
apnews.com
www.investopedia.com
finally the CHATGPT Version (Ai will need 50-60 years to reach my level):
why is saudi arabia important to the usa and the petrodollar
ChatGPT
Saudi Arabia is important to the United States for a variety of reasons, many of which revolve around energy production, geopolitics, and global finance. Here are some of the primary reasons:
Oil Production and Energy Security: Saudi Arabia is one of the largest oil producers in the world and has the second largest proven crude oil reserves after Venezuela. Given the importance of oil to the global economy and the U.S.'s status as one of the world's largest oil consumers, Saudi Arabia's role in global energy markets is key to maintaining stability in energy prices and ensuring reliable oil supplies.
Geopolitical Stability: Saudi Arabia is a key ally for the U.S. in the Middle East, a region which has long been a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. Despite disagreements on certain issues, the strategic partnership between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia has been instrumental in addressing regional challenges, such as containing Iranian influence.
Global Finance and the Petrodollar: The petrodollar system refers to the practice of selling oil in U.S. dollars. This practice, initiated in the 1970s, started when Saudi Arabia and the U.S. reached an agreement to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. This created a significant global demand for the U.S. dollar and helped establish the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency. Today, this system plays a key role in global financial markets, and any disruption to it could have wide-reaching implications.
Counterterrorism Cooperation: Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have a long history of cooperation in counterterrorism efforts. While there have been challenges and controversies in this area, cooperation between the two countries remains crucial for regional security.
Trade and Investment: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have significant trade and investment ties. The U.S. exports a variety of goods and services to Saudi Arabia, and in turn, many U.S. companies invest in Saudi Arabia.
Diplomatic Influence: Saudi Arabia's status as a leading member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as well as its status as a major Islamic country, grants it considerable diplomatic influence. This can be beneficial to U.S. interests in these organizations and in the broader Islamic world.
In conclusion, while the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is complex and sometimes contentious, Saudi Arabia's importance to the U.S. and the petrodollar system is largely tied to its role in energy markets, its strategic location, and its geopolitical influence.
My last Oil post:
check my previous Oil chart posts below..they been a ''hole-in-one'' ⛳
DON'T BUY 6050Dear Saudi Traders and Investors, I'm sharing with you this analysis on 6050 to tell you NOT TO BUY it since the price broke through all the support levels with no indication that it will go up for a correction. For now just keep waiting and buy on the other stocks on which you have an opportunity to buy.
Let me know if you got any question!
ANALYSIS ON 2040Dear Saudi Traders and Investors, I'm sharing with you another analysis to let you know that YOU CAN'T BUY 2040 since the price is heading down and just pulled back on the tough support level we got on 28.40, if the price comes back up with a confirmation that would be a great entry. For now DON'T BUY IT.
Let me know if you got any question!
ANALYSIS ON 1322Dear Saudi Traders and Investors, I'm making this analysis on 1322 to tell you NOT TO BUY 1322 since there's a low volume and the price is heading towards the level 1 of the Pitchfork, the right thing to do in this case is to wait for the price to come back with a confirmation then you can buy.
Let me know if you got any question!
QUICK ANALYSIS ON 2281Dear Saudi Traders and Investors, I'm sharing with you this analysis on 2281 since I got questions if it's time to buy it or no.
For now don't buy it until you get a confirmation of the pullback on the support level it just pulled back on to reach the level 0.5 of the Pitchfork.
Don't hesitate to ask in case you got any question!