Scenarios for Bitcoin Based on Elliott WavePessimistic Scenarios (Red colour)
If bears break a low made in 2018, that will mean the road is open to as low as 1000 USD and they have control over bitcoin.
Scenario in blue colour, we should finish 5th wave and I am expecting that we should get below 3800 USD one more time. I think bulls are setting up a trap and they wouldn't let the market get below 3200 USD level, from 3700/3200 USD prices the market will try and draw 3rd wave on the graph (green colour), which is about 15500 USD to 16500 USD, if that will happen the bulls have a chance to break 20000 USD important resistance level.
If we don't break 20000 USD (black colour), we can't expect 3rd bull wave to open the road to 30000 USD and higher prices.
I hope everything is clear on my thought, if not please ask questions
Scenario
AMAZON MID-TERM POSSIBLE SCENARIO SPECULATION A cautious look at what Amazon's share price behavior might look like mid/semi-long term.
As it is evident from the chart, AMZN is currently trading near all time highs in a range, which is most likely unsustainable, given the upcoming recession.
I say we might see Amazon retrace back to it's two year mean price within a 1600-2000 range. 1800-1900 level seems to be the most appropriate for the stock during the coming turbulent times.
Short term, we might see a small long due to the bounce back from the range support line.
If the S&P500 opens with a big gap down on Monday, however, the range might be broken and the above written scenario might come into play.
If it does not, the in-range trading will continue for some time and then follow this scenario when the broad market starts falling again.
I might be quite wrong tough, and it is quite possible that Amazon will come out of this recession with a 5000 share price.
That is why, this is not a trade suggestion, but a scenario analysis.
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Wish you luck.
Break me out before you drop!✴️ BTC Update
What the hell's that BTC doing? We've been rejected twice under the 7450, which is pretty bearish, but still no massive drop.
The daily technical situation is still positive while the technical indicators are negative on the 4h horizon. On the 1h timeframe, the WaveTrend has just given a buy signal, which does not rule out a short-term rise.
📈 Trend follower?
Still positive in the daily and negative in the 1h and 4h timeframes.
👉 What to do?
Even if Bitcoin doesn't do much at the moment, our scenarios are ready you know me guys! So we have two big possibilities for action, maybe even three.
The first, Bitcoin breaks the 7500 - 7600 zone and moves far enough away from that level, forms a higher high and retraces. In this case we will open a pullback position.
If the Bitcoin fails to close, at least in 4 hours, with enough space, it will be a false breakout/liquidity grab and therefore a bearish sign. We will open a short position on retest of the 7470s. If the 7200s are broken down, this will also be a great spot to open a short on retest position.
While waiting for either one to break, we'll take our cursor off the trader button and wait for the guys! Have a nice day 😉
18.3.2020 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
The history of cryptocurrencies will certainly remember the last week as a tragic one and therefore we will discuss bitcoin again today.
In the last analysis, we also marked the lower trend line on the chart. Probably, no one expected it to be tested just a couple of days later. At the moment, we are probably on the strongest trend line and on key levels.
There are 3 strong supports awaiting:
1. Last LOW - $ 3,234
2. 2017 Swing - $ 2,976
3. Swing LOW from 2017 - $ 1,801
Where's the bottom?
This is probably the basic question often followed by another question - when is the best time to buy? However, no one knows the answer to these two questions. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are experiencing economic collapse for the first time in their history. Although Bitcoin came into existence in 2008 (during the last financial crisis), it was of no value at that time and trading volumes were practically close to nothing.
The crypto fundament is now secondary, as well as halving. On the Internet, there is a growing belief that the price cannot fall further due to the mining process. The truth is, in the short-term the price may still decrease.
What's next?
At the moment it's best to simply wait and possibly buy for a long-term hold. Problems in the world won't be solved quickly. The most important thing, for now, is to keep the trend line. If we break it downwards, we would follow the listed supports, where we would set up purchase orders.
May the crypto be with you!
11.3.2020 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
Today we're looking again at bitcoin, but this time with the long-term lenses.
Currently, halving comes out on May 11, 2020, and many people have speculated based on the past that if history repeats, we should grow before halving. Subsequently, in the halving period, we would slightly decline (even consolidate) and grow again. The bitter surprise is that halving is around the corner and bitcoin is falling. So we offer 3 basic scenarios.
1. Bullish scenario
Right now we are near the bottom and the lower trend line will support us. A bounce will come from there, and we'll climb towards the top of the trend line, we can get through it and get into the bullish zone. There is also strong resistance around the trend line.
2. Bearish scenario
In this case, the lower trendline won't support us and we'll break it down. This would be an extreme bearish situation, we cannot fully imagine what would follow then. But we have to take it into consideration.
3. Complete triangle fill-up
Two basic trend lines make up a triangle together and it's possible that we could bounce off the bottom and go up to the top line, where rejection would come across and we would go back to the bottom and the final decision would take place there. However, this move could take up to 3-4 months and would be very challenging for trading.
Which scenario do you find the most likely? To us, the last one, because both bullish and bearish scenario represents huge extremes even for cryptocurrencies.
May the crypto be with you!
EUR/USD Bearish Scenario by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
- Price bounced at the Weekly Resistance Zone.
- Now, it is facing the short term Ascending Trendline.
- This scenario that we are considering is just a short term move towards the next support zones, looking for a retracement of the strong upside move.
- Will wait and see how the trendline reacts.
- Keep in mind that the main trend on this pair is bullish after the breakout of the Weekly Descending Channel.
DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
NZD/CAD Bullish Scenario by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
- After the volatility at the opening last night, which made price to drop to the Support Zone and then it was strongly rejected, it has broken the Resistance Zone and the Descending Trendline.
- We consider that it has potential to reach the Resistance Zone at 0.8800.
- Will look for a lower timeframe setup to get involved on this pair.
DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
BTC -The Bullish Scenario- from this DUMP!!!IF We see good bounce from here some things I'm seeing are:
$ Bullish divergences:
4, 6, 12 and Daily Time Frame (Need to reverse though to confirm the upswing on RSI)
$ Descending broadening bottom pattern
$ Hit the 50% retrace for overall 6440-10400 FIB on log
$ 1 HR cooked at 8-10 very historic low
AUD/JPY Potential Long Scenario by ThinkingAntsOkDAILY CHART EXPLANATION:
🔸 Price is on a clear downtrend since 2019.
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🔸 It has consolidated on a Daily Wedge Pattern.
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🔸 Now, price is facing the confluence zone between the Support Zone and the lower trendline of the wedge.
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🔸 Will wait to see how it reacts, and, if there is a clear scenario, will look for a lower timeframe setup.
4H CHART ANALYSIS:
BITCOIN - Fakeout Bullish Scenario (Read First!)Hello friends! In this idea i would like to show you how a possible Fakeout scenario on Bitcoin (BTC) could look like.
While the price was moving in Falling Wedge (Bullish Candlestick-Pattern), the price made a decent downwards move - as per my last idea (linked below).
Many traders, especially here on TradingView, were expecting a strong breakout to the upside. That's where the Fakeout comes in play.
I personally do not trade according to this idea. This is just an example for an irrational move, which is not rare at all in cryptocurrency markets.
Please let me know what you think and share your ideas in the comments section.
You can also join our FREE cryptobuller Discord Channel with content for Beginners & Pro's:
-> discord.gg <-
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, chats, messages, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this Idea are provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only
Simmetric triangle about to breakoutWe can see we are at the end of a triangle that formed on a support that goes back months from here. We can bounce to 8700/8900 USD or we can find support at 7400/7300 USD, either way trade this short term operation as soon as you see wich direction the breakout is going.
$BTC >> Examining the bearish scenario $6.8k target levelHi everyone,
Welcome to another update on Bitcoin where today we examine the bearish scenario.
The bearish scenario I am seeing has a $6,800 level target, with the following confluences:
1- Target of weekly bear flag
2- 78.6% fib retrace from ATH to bearmarket low
3- 50 Weekly Moving average
4- Historical (2 year) S/R line with significant VPVR
Best way to trade this is to wait for a breakdown from the bear flag formation.
The 50 Week moving average is a VERY key level - Bitcoin must NOT break it. Retesting it with a sharp strong bounce/bull rally makes a lot of sense though given the technicals of this scenario.
I would give this bearish scenario a 40-45% probability. I remain bullish overall unless the Weekly EMA ribbon is broken or the bear flag is broken to the downside.
Cheers,
Leb Crypto
XAUUSD Scenario for next weekTrade with criteria , I already mark on chart.
Now Long is R/R better than Short.
But everthing can happen with Gold.
Only have plan A,B,.... to fight back.
as I told some follower in chat.
sorry if i answer late in chat but I will try my best .
^_^
*** Risk management is important than signal or entry/exit point.
25.9.2019 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
Last night we witnessed a sharp move on the bitcoin and the whole market . Bitcoin fell by about 15% and altcoins by up to 20 - 30%. So let's do a bitcoin analysis so we know what actually happened and what could that mean?
Scenarios:
1. Triangle
2. Channel
We have been watching these two scenarios in recent weeks. Although it looked like a triangle, ultimately bitcoin opted for a channel. Therefore, the overall decline is not yet over and the first pillow that should stop the fall is the blue support. This, however, is far from over. It is currently very difficult to determine where bitcoin can go. However, we can deduce a few facts:
1. Triangel is excluded as an option
2. We need to postpone the $ 15,000 target for a longer period of time
3. A drop to $ 8,000 may not be the final station
4. The extreme bearish scenario is that we also cross the channel down
We do not recommend buying into the position, because after such a sharp decline, the graph usually cools down for a while. Not even a further decline would be surprising. We have to wait, but we do not see any signs of a "quick return" yet.
May the crypto be with you!
11.9.2019 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
Today we look at BTC / USD. The summer is over and we are waiting for the key movement that will determine the direction of Bitcoin for the next months.
We are currently in a key area where upward bounce to USD 11,000 should occur. We can annotate the previous move to 5 waves and we are currently at the end of ABC correction . The fact that we are in a very strong area, where reflection is likely, suggests a few facts:
Fibonacci retracement - There are 0.65 - 0.786 retracement in this zone which are very strong zones
Fibonacci extension - The whole correction is in the form of ABC correction and in this zone is 1.01 extension projection AB
Volume gap on horizontal volumes
These are three reasons for which we assume that we are now in a zone that is expected to grow to USD 11,000. The daily chart is still in either a triangular or a channel formation . We have been creating this formation for more than two months and we are not yet able to tell which side the weight minds are leaning towards. If the zone is confirmed, we have a potential upward movement of 10% that you can trade.
In the case of the triangle , we need to overcome the top trend resistance on the daily chart, and in the case of the channel , it will be confirmed that we will do a new local minimum and exceed the strong support of USD 9,000. Neither scenario has occurred yet and therefore we have to catch what we have.
May the crypto be with you!
28.8.2019 - BitcoinHi Traders!
Today we look again at bitcoin. On September 23, 2019 BAKKT institutional trading will be launched and bitcoin is waiting for more significant movement.
We are currently tracking 2 main and priority scenarios:
BULLISH SCENARIO
All summer we are in one huge triangle and before launching BAKKT the price grow up . Why could it be a triangle? Triangles are characterized by very low volumes, stop-loss hunting, but often times boredom and activation of stop-losses on both sides. The graph fits exactly into the triangle formation, and this formation is absolutely typical of the fourth wave we are currently in. It also serves to reduce indicators with a minimum price drop. Once this happens, the chart is ready for further growth .
BEARISH SCENARIO
The bearish scenario is a channel that is still in game. In this case, bitcoin could drop somewhere between $ 7000- $ 8,000 , where there is strong support. Given the fast growth from $ 3,500 to nearly $ 14,000, it would still be an acceptable correction that we could consider normal.
We have written down two scenarios that have been in the game for several days and we have to wait for the graph to evolve. However, until we break and confirm one or the other formation, the predictions are useless. All we have to do is wait. In a few moments, BAKKT starts and the bitcoin is ready for the next move .
May the crypto be with you!