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Scenarios

Guess I was rightHi everyone, I hope you are doing well. Yesterday I said that Bitcoin will have a small dump to the 21700 level since we observed a head and shoulders on the lower time frame (H4). However, the price did what I had least expected it to do. If you have been following me, I mentioned 3 days ago that a possible scenario might be less likely to happen, in which the price might go to take out liquidity below the mentioned support. (the image 3 days ago) Also, I mentioned in a notice that the price might reach the liquidity below the relatively equal lows that we created 2 days ago, and it really did. Looking at the H4 time frame, we are in a narrow range between a support and a resistance. Right now, we just hit the last resistance and rejected it with a big red candle. So, where are we going? I am still on yesterday's plan where the price is going to meet the 21700 level support. However, if it breaks from the upside, we will surely meet the last major resistance around 24k, since we are still in an uptrend channel/ wedge. In conclusion, we have 2 possible scenarios, one to the upside and one to the downside, but both of them have a small range to move to, as I mentioned before, we will most probably have a slow month. Please comment if you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them. Thank you😊
Long
by yassin_khanji
Bitcoin Extreme Scenarios - realized path will be somewhere w/inA lot going on here, main takeaway is these are the extremes of what to expect going forward. Methods used : - harmonic patterns - wolfe waves - control charts (I built my own stability motoring/anomaly detection model in R) - time series analysis (its a random walk, it really is) General Expectation s: Expecting near-term bounce to 47k-53k by early May (there could be a small drop early next week to 36-38k before starting run to upper 40s), followed by drop to around 30k by late summer. From 30k there will be a retest of 40k and decision there will confirm if recent range has been accumulation or re-distribution - if it continues above 40k and shows SoS above 50k (confirmation of accumulation) then it is mathematically possible to run to new highs (particularly in the 70-75k) range by end of 2022; however, a rejection at 40k after bouncing from 30k would be the SoS confirmation of re-distribution and it would start a nasty drop to around 23k. Chart Description : - As the title indicates, this is intended to demonstrate possible paths BTC could take from here - these are most extreme paths so actual path should be expected to fall within green and red projections - the methods used I made notes on chart but if you have any questions/corrections/objections I'll reply to comments ~ RED Trajectory = most extreme bearish case. If the beginning of this plays out I would expect it to bottom before 13k, likely 19-23k would be bounce zone ~ GREEN Trajectory = most extreme bullish case. Look at MRNA chart back in early 2021 (Jan-March) and notice similarities with BTC from early 2021 until current. MRNA had a smaller periodicity, no doubt accelerated by Covid-related factors/intentions, but MRNA in Mar 2021 was very similar to where BTC is now. Based on the actual structure of BTC void of the MRNA comparative speculation (i.e. based on the maths) I actually think the realized path of BTC will be closer to this bullish extreme - i.e. new highs by end of year ~~~ the black trajectory is a theoretically possible yet very extreme middle ground where BTC gets trapped in a converging vortex around 42k and perpetually stabilizes at that value. At that point time would actually become bi-lateral and the past and future of all time would coincide at a crypto event horizon... only Elon Musk would be able to escape this fate... lmao Obviously not financial advice because I didn't discuss anything financially plausible nor did I advise. Bless you all, lmk your thoughts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
1
GBPCHF could try to break the long lasting trend...or notGBPCHF is really undecided nowadays. It has a long lasting trend to fall since the January of 2000. Now it has formed a giant triangle bottoming at around 1.18. Now the Bank of England is in a rate hiking cycle while the Swiss National Bank does not indicate a rate hike any time soon, so a strengthening of the pound is very likely. Besides that, the shockwaves of Brexit are slowly fading, Boris Johnson and his administration set a clear path for the economy (hopefully a good path), so everything is in order, in theory. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, the supply chain problems and the UK's firm anti-russian position and rethoric bring some uncertainty to the equation. On the long run I expect a possible break-out attempt to the upside, targeting the upper end of the falling yellow falling channel firs (around 1.247), then the upper end of the blue triangle (around 1.26). Be cautious! The other scenario is a rapid fall to the bottom of the channel (1.194), then to the bottom of the triangle (1.18). Follow me for more updates on the pair and other assets. Don't forget: money is weird and unpredictable, so plan for all possible scenarios and hedge your positions!
Long
by weirdmoney
3 MAIN POSSIBLE SCENARIOS #BTCexplanation current main support zones 1)35k & 20 ma monthly & ascending trend line(blue) & 100 ma confluence together 2)30k 3)20k & 100ma weekly & lower trend line support of main ascending channel confluence together current main resistance zone-45k & 50 ma weekly confluence together facts (1)you can see that 35k zone is very important ...there are many confluences together..good zone to re-obtain/gain the bull strength!!! (2)if btc break 35k zone its gives us a very bearish,bad sign.sooo watch 35k level carefully. (3)its clear that 45k area also a high resistance zone..if btc break 45k area we can see 48k,52k respectively.(im personaly 50% bullish if that breakout happened) (4)rsi line have a chance to test the yellow support zone..(im personaly expecting a move like that) (5)i have a drew a blue trendline traingle watch it too possibilities *i have draw 3 scenarios that can happen 1,2,3 in blue,pink,green respectively. *if we loss 35k ..20k is more possible(if we break 30k zone clearly)... *if we loss 35k btc may create a reversal pattern like head & shoulder..like head in the 30k zone or 20k zone my personal idea about btc :-if we loss 35k,30k zones 20 k is comming...its more possible heres not like in 2021 may month . there are many confirmations...rsi levels,fibanachi,ma history more and more...so atleast we must hold above 30k..im completly bullish(100%) if btc break blue traingle upward and establish properly..until then im not trusting the market... so survive in the market..dont be overbullish!! #notafinancialadvice just my view. analyzed by-@movindu karunathilaka
INDEX:BTCUSD
by DIPTEAM
solana scenario ithink solana have to paths for the future 1- after big correction of sol we can see that price break the downtrend channel and gonna complete the pull back maybe if price can break the main resistance we can see sol for 300 or above(black paths). plus we have nice fundamental from it . 2- if you look at the chart the elliot wave are going too complete wave B and that a correction wave of elliot so the path blue could impossible if price cant break 78.6 ret and that strong resistance and going for wave C and 120 or 100 price. plz comment down blow what u think have great and profitable day.
by sepehrj2260
2
ALICE bull and bear scenariosHello everyone, hope you doing good. * This is not a financial advice, use the idea with your own strategy and risk management * Few days ago, I wrote an idea about ALICE and shared with you a great setup ( Hope you didn't miss that one ) as we reached target 4, now we have to figure out whats the next move, as you can see in the chart below, we have a trend line that price has been rejected many times before and we are getting closer to it, two scenarios are also drawn on the chart below : 1. Green arrow = Bullish scenario : in which we break out of this level and since there is no actual resistance I think we will have a ride to ATH 2. Red arrow = Bearish scenario : in which we will get rejected once again and have a ride toward bottom be patient, watch how price will re act to some certain levels, if you saw weakness it would probably mean that we are going to go down, but if we broke the trend line with a good bull candle, its most likely a bull market. good luck ! I'm writing about most of crypto currencies; Follow me on TRADINGview so you wouldn't miss out any updates. Like if you think this was helpful and let me know on the comment section below. * This is not a financial advice, use the idea with your own strategy and risk management *
by Algo_Analyst
2
Possible scenarios for BTCAt the moment, 50k-53k is a very critical level for $BTC in order to determine whether or not we'll move into a bull run or not. Another rejection and bobos will have a field day seeing no one happy for Christmas this December. I've laid out a couple of scenarios for BTC: Bull case: -We breach the trendline and make a higher high and complete a wave 3 target toward 100k without retesting the trendline -The same as above but the trend line gets retested and a new bull trend gets created -Exchange reserves decreasing significantly ever since the dump from 50k -Taproot -New local high on taker buy/sell ratio -Spot ETF? -Possibility of other social media platforms following twitter's adoption of BTC and ETH (OF btc donations from simps?) -Btc volcano mining from El Salvador Bear case: -Bitcoin gets rejected at the trendline again increasing the likelihood of a bear market but with a much higher ath potential (300k+?) sometime in 2022 or 2023. I suspect the bottom to be anywhere between 22k-24k. Good time to pick up on alts and accumulate. Doesn't even matter if you are working min. wage at Mcdonald's or Amazon with this scenario, just have cash/stable coins ready to buy the dip, and cash out your 10x-100x ROI. -Bids at 36k-40k region continuing to reduce whilst under 50k/major trendline, providing an opportunity for a selloff to sub 40k due to lack of support. -Trusts/Funds selling at a negative premium -SPX/CPI wave 5 target -115% U.S. debt/GDP ratio -Evergrande situation (tether correlation?) Overall, wouldn't be surprised if we crabbed for a couple of months maybe even a year until either case becomes more dominant.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by linebands
Bitcoin Analyze (Symmetrical Triangle & Scenarios)!!!Hi everyone, Today I want to talk about Scenarios of Bitcoin that can happen in the next 38 days!!! Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe Daily⏰ after verifying point C, I can say that Bitcoin is running in a Symmetrical Triangle these Months (Probably = one scenario will reject it). this triangle can reject in the next 38days, so I guess that we will see great movement in October (What is your idea, Pump or Dump ?!) I tried to show you all scenarios that can happen in October, lets check them : Scenario 1: Bitcoin can make descending channel by lines 1&2 of Pitchfork, and it breaks Support line & zone and our Symmetrical Triangle will reject == Fan Principle's Lines will work Scenario 2: Bitcoin reaches itself to my point D (at the same time it breaks (Trusty) our resistance zone) and then, it will break important resistance line & zone== Fan Principle's Lines will Fail== New ATH Scenario 3: Bitcoin reaches itself to my point D (at the same time it breaks (Fake) our resistance zone) and then, it doesn't able to break the resistance line & zone and it will arrive to point E, After that Bitcoin can break Support line & zone and we will see 37000-38000$ at this month Fan Principle's Lines will Fail== New ATH Scenario 4: Bitcoin reaches itself to my point D (at the same time it breaks (Trusty) our resistance zone) and then, it doesn't able to break the resistance line & zone and it will arrive to point E, After that Bitcoin will attack to important resistance line for the fourth time and breaks it ===Fan Principle's Lines will Fail== New ATH what is your idea, which scenarios will happen? Resistance zones & Suppor Zones on Bitcoin's way : Resistance Zone: 48800$ until 47500$ Support Zone: 41950$ until 41380$ My Suggestion: you can follow my Scenarios. probably my Zones will work and help us👍😉. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
by pejman_zwin
10
Short term bearish view on BTCUSD: Fib channels.For me, a likely scenario could be BTC dropping until Q2-2022, then long-term building up for next ATH. Why? Using long term fib channels we see that sell territory has always begun above the 0.5 line. When this had been reached, a correction to the channel below 0.236 followed suit - time for buyers. After BTCUSD has been in the channel above 0.618 it didn't drop there yet. That's where it may go next (scenario A). Why not moving further up, into scenario B? BTCUSD had never made a correction through more than 2 channels during a bullish phase. Now it already went through 4 of them. There are no new psychological or fundamental reasons why this time should be different (like the corona drop was in 03-2020). This makes scenario B rather unlikely for me. This is not a trading advice, just my private analysis.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by My2CentsOnBTC
1
Bitcoin Analyze (Counting Waves+Scenarios)!!!Hi, I Came back again with Bitcoin counting waves. still, I am believing that Bitcoin was able to pass Main wave B at 48800$, also, As I said in my previous post ''Bitcoin Analyze (Counting Waves at Timeframe 15min)!!!'',❗️Warning❗️: over 46822$, my counting waves will be fail. and NOW, my counting was failed (Normal, counting waves can change). So I tried to count again and find 2 Scenarios for these Days & Hours. I don't know that did you read my previous post about Bitcoin analysis or not !? if YES, please read this post, if NO, first please read my post with the topic''Bitcoin Analyze (Road Map)!!!🗺️''. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe 30 min⏰ Location🌊: Bitcoin was able to pass Main wave B at 48800$. now, I think that Bitcoin is resting time ⏰. after Main wave B, we save wave A that it had 3 microwaves (5-3-5 ZigZag), so the Corrective Structure of resting time can be (3-3-5 (Flat) =Scenario 1) or (3-3-3-3-3 (Triangle (probably Contracting Triangle)= Scenario 2). At the moment Bitcoin is running on wave B. we passed microwaves a & b of Wave B that they had 3 microwaves, so wave B is a flat correction (3-3-5). now we have to find the end of microwave 5 of microwave c of wave B. Tip: microwave 3 of microwave c of wave B is extended. If wave 3 is extended, then wave 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration. If equality is lacking, a 61.8% relationship is next most likely. If microwave 1 and microwave 5 want to be equal in size, microwave 5 can continue up to 47413$ (Around the Current Price + TRZ). As result,47413$ can be one of the targets of the end of wave B. the end of wave B can continue until 48100$ or even 49100$. In addition: stochastic is showing the end of the movement 👇 When we can find and sure about the end of wave B, we will have 2 Scenarios : Scenario 1: Bitcoin will complete Flat Correction (3-3-5) and probably it will break our Heavy Support (43960-43770$) == Sign for starting Main Wave C. Scenario 2: Bitcoin will complete Triangle Correction (3-3-3-3-3), probably this triangle will be Contracting Triangle. My Suggestion: if you have Bitcoin, you have to think about taking profit from them Soon/ if you don't have coins, Don't be FOMO, probably time will give you another chance 👍😉/ If you find the end of wave B & triggers, then you can open Short Position. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
by pejman_zwin
26
Bitcoin collecting in triangle again. Momentum now bullish.Bitcoin dropped and got bought up fast at previous price lows. This shows that the buyers are still very greedy, but they are hiding it well. How will sellers take advantage of this? Probably they will test to see if buyers will continue to show up. If even one time the buyers don't come out at those previous lows the sellers will probably go for a choke out. The opposite could happen and buyers could keep the pressure up. If they push out of the top of the triangle, which is now much less far away since we've traveled sideways, and therefore easier to accomplish, then more buyers will flock, and the sellers will begin reversing their positions. Most likely some much more ridiculous scenario will unfold. Price action is never as clean as the story.
by emehoke
🔥Ethereum is on Ascending Triangle(Bear Market) 🔥(Road map)🧐Today, I decided to publish a Road map for Ethereum . First, I have to say again sorry (This post is like with post that I published ''🔥 Bitcoin is on Contracting Triangle 🔥 (Road map)🧐'' ) for the busy chart ( ETHUSDT ), but my chart needed these lines. Please spend a few minutes on it.🙏 Location: ETH is on Main wave 4 ( Zig zag 5-3-5 ) for about 25 days (From 4372$ until LIVE price) and I think that Main wave 4 will take more time from us (maybe more than one month , just a prediction ). My idea : ETH was able to pass the Microwave A (It had 5 microwave) of the Main wave 4 at 1866$ . Now, ETH is running on Ascending Triangle ( Bear Market shape ). I was able to find the 3 main points of the triangle A-B-C ( Ascending Triangle ). For finding Point D , we have to concentrate on Descending Triangle for Bull Market OR Barrier Triangle . (In the following, I will explain the reason for the word ''OR''). I think that Point D can be around 2552 $ == Near the Lower line of our Triangles. I have three Scenario : Scenario 1 : when the price arrives to Point D , it can break the lower line of our triangle, and then the price starts to go down, so the end of microwave B of the Main wave 4 was at Point C + microwave C of the Main wave 4 has started === Triangle that I spoke about it for finding Point D will be Barrier Triangle . Scenario 2 : when the price arrives to Point D , then the price goes up until Point E (Price will break our Descending Triangle (for Bull Market ) on this way). Point E can be a Critical Point for us (It is the end of microwave B of Main wave 4 ), better, I had to say that market will decide to go UP or DOWN ( UP will make my Scenario 3 // DOWN will make my Scenario 2 ). If the price goes DOWN at Point E , we can say that microwave C of Main wave 4 has started == Triangle that I spoke about it for finding Point D will be Descending Triangle (for Bull Market) . Scenario 3 : when the price arrives to Point D , then the price goes up until Point E (Price will break our Descending Triangle (for Bull Market ) on this way). Point E can be a Critical Point for us(It is the end of microwave B of Main wave 4 ), better, I had to say that market will decide to go UP or DOWN ( UP will make my Scenario 3 // DOWN will make my Scenario 2 ). If the price goes UP at Point E , we can say that BTC will go UP by 5 new impulsive waves == Triangle that I spoke about it for finding Point D will be Descending Triangle (for Bull Market) . Also, I have to say that Microwave C can not go down less than 1406 $ == Elliott's rules will be violated ( Wave 4 and Wave 1 can no t have overlap ). Resistance zones on Ethereum's way : Resistance zone 1 : 2900$ until 2935$ ( The upper line of Ascending Triangle + Monthly Pivot Point ) == Heavy Resistance Resistance zone 2 : 2814$ until 2837$ ( 38.2% Fibonacci microwave A of Main wave 4 + Weekly R1+ 88.6% Fibonacci (Point A) until (PointB) ) == Light Resistance Support zones on Ethereum's way : Support zone 1 : 2264$ until 2180$ ( 88.6% Fibonacci (Point B) until (PointC)+ 61.8% Fibonacci (Point A) until (PointB) + support (major pivot) ) == Medium Support Support zone 2 : 1900$ until 1865$ ( support (major pivots) ) == Heavy Support My Suggestion : please DO NOT buy Coins for Midterm and Long-term investment until the market finds a way . Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open) Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas on this post. Please do not forget the 'like' button :) & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe. Good luck
by pejman_zwin
20
🔥 Bitcoin is on Contracting Triangle 🔥 (Road map)🧐First, I have to say sorry for the busy chart (BTCUSDT) , but my chart needed these lines . Please spend a few minutes on it.🙏 Location : BTC is on Corrective Structure ( Zig zag 5-3-5 ) for about 51 days (From 64795$ until LIVE price) and I think that this correction will take more time from us (maybe 2 months , just prediction ). My idea : still, BTC is on microwave 4 of Main wave C . as you know, one of the shapes of wave 4 is a triangle . I was able to find the 3 main points of the triangle A-B-C ( Contracting Triangle ). Point C has found with Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern + 78.6% Fibonacci (Point A ) until ( Point B ). For finding Point D , we have to concentrate on correcting microwaves (a-b-c) that are on the way to point D, I was able to find Bullish Crab Harmonic Pattern on the end of microwave a. microwave b can be around 37040$ or 37960$ . I think that Point D can be around 35698$ == 61.8% Fibonacci ( Point B ) until ( Point C ). I have three Scenario : Scenario 1 : when the price arrives to Point D , it can break the lower line of our triangle , and then the price starts to go down, so the end of microwave 4 of Main wave C was at Point C + microwave 5 of Main wave C has started. Scenario 2 : when the price arrives to Point D , then the price goes up until Point E . Point E can be a Critical Point for us (It is the end of microwave 4 of Main wave C ), better, I had to say that market will decide to go UP or DOWN ( UP will make my Scenario 3 // DOWN will make my Scenario 2 ). If the price goes DOWN at Point E , we can say that microwave 5 of Main wave C has started. Scenario 3 : when the price arrives to Point D , then the price goes up until Point E . Point E can be a Critical Point for us(It is the end of microwave 4 of Main wave C ), better, I had to say that market will decide to go UP or DOWN ( UP will make my Scenario 3 // DOWN will make my Scenario 2 ). If the price goes UP at Point E , we can say that BTC will go UP by 5 new impulsive waves . My Suggestion : please do not buy Coins for Midterm and Long-term investment until the market finds a way. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open) Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas on this post. Please do not forget the 'like' button :) & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe. Good luck
by pejman_zwin
41