The USD Strength vs the IMF's SDRThe USD Strength Indicator's relationship with the SDR basket is foundational to understanding global currency dynamics. Since the SDR comprises major currencies like the USD, Euro, Yuan, Yen, and Pound, the indicator's assessment of USD's performance against these currencies offers direct insights into its comparative value. This evaluation helps gauge the USD's global economic standing, influencing international finance, trade decisions, and the IMF's monetary strategies. It's a critical tool for analyzing shifts in currency power and their broader economic implications.
SDR
OK, Moonshoot or Marsshoot on Crypto and ETH?The charts makes me want to dump all assets and go into crypto... Please help a bro here.... I need some grounding. There's a very strong triple bottom long term at 1700. Missed and given the consolidation range, we need to break and it appears the bulls have SDR fuel...
I need to go look in my sofa for all the coins that fell out of my pockets over the years.... Convert that heavy metal to math ASAP
Gold in SDR'sfundamental issue. Bonds that don't pay any interest don't make any sense conceptually. Why would anyone work hard then undertake the risk of loaning out their savings for free? They wouldnt. So our current financial model no longer makes conceptual sense. Thats a rather big issue I think.
root cause =QE pushes down interest rates. QE is now necessary to sustain the system. Ipso facto interest rates are going negative as there are not enough bonds available to deliver and there never will be because the QE has to lead the bonds like a cat chasing its tail. So we are going to have "money", so much money that no one wants it and interest rates go further and further negative until the whole thing caves in on itself as global hyperinflation as gold marches to 7k in US dollars and 4k in IMF SDR's, which will be required to bail out the FED, ECB, BOJ, BOC, and every other client states central bank etc. Tarzans Opinion Caveat Emptor.
CAN THIS STOP LOSS GET TOUCHED EVER ? ONLY IF OIL WELLS DRY UPThis is a very long term trade with very good margin of safety. This is a fundamental analysis based on the book " the intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham" with seeking price to come $3+ levels.
For a detailed view on this stock visit: www.fool.com
Gold officially broken out of Long term Triangle? Also 20,50,200 Moving average bullish crossover. Dollar index is not looking good either. War on the horizon, Tax cut, health care failure? Debt ceiling raise? Heavily manipulated market, alot can happen.
For those of you who are not familiar with IMF SDR plan and the voting power shift that took place this year i would suggest you to study that. Also the ACC blockchain that will be connected to the SDR.
Longterm view on S&P 500Kinda cluttered, these are areas I'm paying attention to, depending how the market enters those zones I might think about taking a long/short position.
Some fun facts:
- Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat.
- Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from high-frequency trading. If I understand this correctly that means half the volume traded on markets is just a reflection of the other half. That's very precarious.
- Approximately %60 of bank loans within the developed world are against real estate that already exists, ie mortgages, not for construction or business startups or whatever. Non productive assets. Kinda makes you second guess the whole mantra behind things like QE.
- Despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing, money velocity has plummeted and yields are scarce. There is no happy ending here.
I'm not too keen on the SPX being able to hold this upward 45 degree angle its been on, I expect a crisis/correction towards 1500 at some point. I'm not a permabear but a major change needs to occur within the design of our financial system for the world to continue running, and that won't come without some volatility. These endless loans/debts simply cannot be repaid. The central banks need inflation and they're gonna get it through permanent money creation/debt monetization. This'll probably play out between now and 2020.
Long term view on BitcoinWhere to go long and where to short (though I have no current plans to short). I hope to sell %50 of my bitcoin between $2400/2700, sometime within the next few years. Anything above that is after gold breaks through its price manipulation and soars to >$5000, when price inflation finally takes over due to the malinvestment of QE money, which is currently preventing the economy from collapsing/markets from correcting (ECB & JCB are buying around $150b/month of bonds and equities). It's only a matter of time until permanent money creation becomes canon and inflation becomes completely inevitable, I couldn't guess as to when it ultimately takes off though. It's possible bitcoin gets to ~2500 on hype alone, and selling at ~$800-900 is good too if things change in the future. I doubt it's going under $570 barring some extreme event like gov't regulation or an unfound zeroday, making it a pretty decent option against market catastrophe over the next 3-7 years. BTC as %2-5 of your portfolio is very effective.
This idea is tentative to future edits.
Schroders (SDR)Since hitting 2000.00 the share price has retraced 41% and since have consolidated around the 2800 area. The average estimates from brokers are still at a hold - buy rating. The RSI is showing a bullish failure swing with the indicator making lows and the price making a higher low.
On the weekly chart price action has been bearish with a shooting star candle (last week). However, the daily chart contradicts this with a hammer candle rejection of the 2754 lows.
R3 2876.80
R2 2850.00
R1 2800.00
Current 2722.00
S1 Upward trendline starting from June 6 low.
S2 2722.00
S3 2651.00
S4 2620.13
AUDUSD: Huge breakout, similar to copper and iron oreWe have a potential breakout of considerable scale in the Aussie dollar chart. I'd highly reccomend entering longs if not in, you can risk either 3 times the daily ATR for the long term, or use Friday's low as your stop, more aggressively.
The target is the 0.8350 handle, to be confirmed after the bi-weekly time at mode signal on chart confirms. For now, it's not yet confirmed, but highly likely, so we can get in early on. I'm adding a shorter term entry here, on a break of Friday's high, with stops under Friday's low, to complement my longer term position in this pair.
Check out my copper forecast in the related ideas, as well as the oil an commodity index charts. We're in the brink of a massive move, that if confirmed, can be ridiculously profitable for all of us if it pans out like I expect it to. This also ties nicely with China's inclusion in the SDR basket today, OPEC's deal, fears of Deutsche Bank's failure dissipated, and Australia's fundamentals overall.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCNH: Potential long term topWith oil rallying, and China soon to be accepted by the IMF, to include the Yuan in the SDR currency basket, the technicals in this chart suddenly look very good to me.
You could go short here, with stops above yesterday's high to begin with. The currencies not affected by today's fear spike due to Deutsche Bank's shock were: the Euro (surprisingly!), XAU, XAG, CHF, CNH, so, we know these are relatively stronger (same as oil and other commodities).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.