AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure)
✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce
Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly.
The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone.
📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions
🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions.
🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped.
🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March.
📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability.
🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup.
🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry.
🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone.
👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments!
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Seasonality
$LLY Long-Term BuyHealthcare could possibly be the next rotation coming out of this tech bull run. Using the Trade Jeanie (Jeanius Screener/Indicator), I was able to see the current technical buy signals happening on NYSE:LLY :
Inside a HTF fair value gap (3M timeframe)
Took out an untested low (liquidity)
The Jeanius Indicator shows green 'Combo' labels every time this same combination of signals happened
The Jeanius Screener lets me filter my favorite tickers to see which ones are currently taking out untested lows or liquidity
Yield Curve Inversion Watch Chart - Fed Has To Cut!If you’re worried about a recession, you should be watching the Yield Curve Inverting.
Historically, an inversion signals a recession, but with a lag.
We can see this on the chart whenever the yield curve hits 0%
This shows the 2Y yield higher than the 10Y which is a signal that the market expects slow economic growth.
To counter-act the inversion, the Fed cuts the EFFR, although they are always late.
One would think that the Fed would learn from history, and get ahead of the curve this time around.
Only time will tell.
I’m cautiously optimistic as Treasury Secretary Bessent has stated that he has a weekly meeting with Fed Chair Powell.
#SMTC $SMTC AnalysisNASDAQ:SMTC Key levels:
$35 = Yearly and Biannually demand
$50 = Broken upper channel wedge "Could be retested"
$20 = A cluster og yearly and 6 month demand
#SMTC is trading on a huge yearly and bianually demand where it accumlating more buys. The stock is trading below its 200 SMA and might stall upon retesting it.
Closing below $29 will unlock a zone down to $20 per share.
#smtc #stocks #stockmarket #ahmedmesbah
#Tesla $TSLA is approaching key levels. NASDAQ:TSLA D1
Key levels:
$300: 1 Year demand zone.
$280: 200 SMA + a significant lower channel wedge extending since April 2024.
A bounce from these levels will fuel more momentum to $375 or more.
A weekly close below $270 will unlock a new zone extended down to $230
#TSLA #TESLA #STOCKS #AHMEDMESBAH
Altseason 2025: Bitcoin’s Next Phase, Thrill and Euphoria So, it seems that we are on track with the 4-year cycle, with our target to at least 150k for BTC, and entering the next phase: thrill, euphoria and altseason.
Of course, it’s not “up only” from here, and we do have specific market conditions that must align for this scenario to play out:
Bitcoin follows the 4-year cycle: Maintaining historical trends of market phases.
We remain in a crypto bull market: A rising tide lifts all boats.
Altseason begins: A period of intense growth and volatility for altcoins.
Retail money floods in: Increasing mainstream interest and participation.
Global markets are "healthy-ish": No major economic black swans.
Monetary policy shifts to QE (quantitative easing): A return to liquidity-friendly environments.
🌊 Our high risk altcoin picks for this altseason
#1 Glacier Network - best characterized as a Infrastructure, Smart Contract Platform and Layer 2 project.
#2 Karlsen Network - best characterized as a Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 and Proof of Work project.
#3 Guacamole - best characterized as a Meme and DeFi project.
#4 Picasso Network - best characterized as a Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 and Bridge Governance Token project.
#5 Three protocol - best characterized as a Smart Contract Platform and Payment Solution project.
#6 Octavia - best characterized as a Artificial Intelligence and AI Agent project.
#7 ZeroLend - best characterized as a DeFi, Governance and Lending/Borrowing Protocols project.
#8 LightLink - best characterized as a Infrastructure, Smart Contract Platform and Layer 2 project.
#9 enqAI - best characterized as an Artificial Intelligence project.
#10 AIT Protocol - best characterized as a Artificial Intelligence project.
#11 Juno Network - best characterized as a Smart Contract Platform and Juno Ecosystem project.
#12 UFO Gaming - best characterized as a GameFi project.
#13 AgentLayer - best characterized as an Artificial Intelligence and AI Agents project.
#14 Blendr Network - best characterized as an Artificial Intelligence and DePIN project.
#15 HyperGPT - best characterized as an Artificial Intelligence and AI Agents project.
💬 What is your top picks for this altseason?
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.
DXY Falling Below $106 - Cue AltSeason in March!The biggest shock to everyone is going to be the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC going DOWN while ALTS skyrocket 🚀
As I have discussed in my macro thesis, the TVC:DXY is FINALLY breaking down on the Weekly along with the 10Y.
RSI has topped and Price broke below the WMA9 & 20.
Just waiting on the WMA9 to break below the WMA20 for final confirmation.
Historically when this happens...
it’s ALTSEASON BABY!!! 🥳
After this happened in March 2017,
BTC and ALTS pumped together,
then BTC went down 33% while ALTS exploded higher over a 3 week period before BTC rallied alongside again.
AEM Scenario ( Agnico Eagle Mines Limited )What is the use of a detailed scenario like this anyway? ;-)
Likely it will move in a different way.
But what i see is upside potential with a seasonal bias supporting that view.
Upmove likely to start at the 1.618 extention within this correction we are in right now
(compare to the past corrections)
Have fun!
Leave a like and feel free to comment or chat!
BTC Seasonal Bullish PatternAccording to seasonality BTC usually had rallies from FEB to mid or end of APRIL. So if price breaks the resistance of resistance of 103,000 then a massive rally lasting up to mid April can be expected.
Price Targets :
Key resistance Areas to Watch
103,000 and 108,000
Rally Price targets:
According to the fib extension of last rally and LH. if price goes to 1.3 fib extension then we can see the rally up to 130,000 price levels and can briefly exceed above it.
The B-History of Bitcoin (BTC)Chart Breakdown:
Bull Market Phase (Green Section)
Measures the time taken from the cycle bottom to the peak.
Displays the percentage gain from the lowest point of the cycle to the highest.
Shows the number of bars (days) it took for the market to reach its peak.
Bear Market Phase (Red Section)
Highlights the correction from the peak back down to the next cycle bottom.
Shows the percentage decline and the time taken for the market to complete its downward trend.
Includes volume metrics to provide insight into trading activity.
Full Market Cycle (Entire Duration)
Captures the entire period from the start of the previous bull market, through the peak, and back to the bear market bottom.
Displays the total number of days for a complete market cycle.
Helps to visualize how Bitcoin's market cycles repeat over time.
The chart offers a clear perspective on Bitcoin's historical price movements, emphasizing cycle duration and price trends, making it a useful tool for analyzing past patterns and potential future cycles.
Sabre Corporation | SABR | Long at $3.00Sabre Corporation's NASDAQ:SABR earnings have slowly been improving since the pandemic and may be heading into profitability by 2025/2026. Disinterest in the stock may also be waning as the price creeps closer to my selected historical simple moving average (SMA, white and teal lines). Often, but not always, as the price nears this line, it jumps to make contact over a few weeks or months. Not to say that more volatility won't be ahead, but NASDAQ:SABR currently sits in a personal buy zone at $3.00.
Target #1 = $4.00
Target #2 = $5.00
Target #3 = $6.70
GBP/USD Trade Recap – A Perfect Long Setup 1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today’s GBP/USD trade was a textbook example of combining Fibonacci retracements, smart money positioning, and seasonality trends to catch a high-probability long setup.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 1.2600 (Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 1.2587 (Below structure)
✅ Take Profit: 1.2635 (Key resistance zone)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Hit TP at 1.2635 for a solid profit! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Perfect Pullback & Reversal
Price retraced to the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (1.2600 - 1.2593) before reversing.
The bullish move was expected after a strong impulse leg, following smart money positioning.
📈 Smart Money & Retail Sentiment – Trading Against the Herd
🔹 62% of retail traders were SHORT on GBP/USD (as per DMX data).
🔹 Since I trade against retail sentiment, this provided a strong bullish confirmation.
🔹 Institutional COT data showed big players increasing long positions, further supporting a bullish bias.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 15-year seasonality data indicated GBP/USD typically rallies in late February and early March.
📅 The next 3-5 day forecast showed a bullish probability, adding further conviction.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Momentum Indicators & Structure
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price was trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term trendline resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money & against retail sentiment = High probability setups
🔹 Seasonality provided extra confidence in taking the long trade
🔹 Using Fibonacci and EMAs for confluence led to a precise entry
🔹 Patience and risk management were key to securing profits
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for GBP/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I will look for further longs on dips, targeting the next key resistance at 1.2680 - 1.2700.
👀 Are you bullish or bearish on GBP/USD? Let’s discuss in the comments!
Oil on the rise!?Recent COT data shows a decrease in short interest from commercial money, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment.
Seasonal trends also support a bullish outlook for oil, with historical data indicating a strong price rise between February 7 and March 5. Over the past 34 years, oil has gained 69.7% of the time, with an average increase of 4.79%.
From a technical standpoint, the price has broken higher from a corrective channel, suggesting further upside potential. A move toward the early 2025 highs of 80.44 could be on the cards. A breakout above this level would confirm a large bottom formation, paving the way for further gains in the months ahead.
Trade setup: Buy on dips to 72.26, with a stop loss at 69.90, targeting a move to 80.44.