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Seasonality-trading

1-800-Flowers.com | FLWS | Long at $8.001-800-Flowers.com NASDAQ:FLWS has been in price consolidation mode since 2022 and may be gearing up for an upward move as my historical selected simple moving average reconnects with the price. The company is expected to become profitable in 2025 and the holiday season is approaching. Historically, this is the period when the price begins to rise. With a 25 million float and 14.54% short interest, this ticker could get interesting if it takes off. But be cautious as the economy seems to be showing signs of slowing... At $8.00, NASDAQ:FLWS is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $9.20 Target #2 = $10.50 Target #3 = $20.50 (long-term if the economy is strong...)
NASDAQ:FLWSLong
by NicksAnalysis
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively. 🔵𝚆𝙷𝙰𝚃 𝙸𝚂 𝙰 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴? A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production. Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew. 🔵𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚂𝙴𝙰𝚂𝙾𝙽𝚂 𝙾𝙵 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚈𝙴𝙰𝚁 Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play: Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases. Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns. Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow. Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts nature’s growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens. 🔵𝙸𝙼𝙿𝙰𝙲𝚃 𝙾𝙵 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙾𝙽 𝙳𝙸𝙵𝙵𝙴𝚁𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝚂𝙴𝙲𝚃𝙾𝚁𝚂 Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services. For example: Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending. Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant. Crypto Sector: SP500: 🔵𝙽𝙰𝚅𝙸𝙶𝙰𝚃𝙸𝙽𝙶 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝚂 𝙰𝙽 𝙸𝙽𝚅𝙴𝚂𝚃𝙾𝚁 Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns. Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing. Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated. Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur. 🔵𝙶𝙾𝚅𝙴𝚁𝙽𝙼𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝙿𝙾𝙻𝙸𝙲𝙸𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment. Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. 🔵𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙲𝙻𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙾𝙽 Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations. Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
VANTAGE:SP500Education
by BigBeluga
3
Seasonality and Elliottwave pattern show correction for SP500We saw SP500 breaking to new ATH this month, but then market sharply reversed which is not a surprise as index formed an ending diagonal at the top of the recent rise. These type of the patterns are very powerful, and can cause a strong "unexpected" erased of some of the previous gains. Well, we can see an impulsive reversal on smaller time frame, so be aware of more weakness and deeper correction this summer. Sesonality chart also shows that there can be period of consolidation before market resumes even higher, possibly in September when FED may cut, or during US ellections. Grega
CME_MINI:ESU2024
by ew-forecast
July Seasonal Long Copper HG1!: Seeking Gap & clean highs-We retraced down to 50% of the 2024 up leg, finding support. -We neatly found support at the Volume imbalance W and the midpoint of the Fair value gap M, circa 50% of said 2024 up leg. -July has a strong bullish seasonal tendency. ~The plan would be to take partials (half off) in the gap (FVG- fair value gap) circa 4.75; and move stop-loss up to trailing. ~If this runs up hard & fast, ideal target would be the high time frame clean highs 5.24 ~Timestop: End of July marks end of seasonal bull, so depending on the price action context, i'd be inclined to close the trade as we enter into August. ~If this proves bearish and i'm wrong, I would close the entire position if we come any lower than a mere peep below the late June low; stop-loss would be at 4.31 **B-ADJ toggled ON; SET toggled OFF. **Just an idea for paper trading purposes, not financial advice.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by twingall
There is no turn backThis analysis might look pretty crowded but actually there is simple logic behind this. After each bearish season place "Fib speed fan resistance" from top to bottom. We can observe there is no bearish scenario after we break 0.75 blue fan line. There might be red weeks but after all its end with bullish scenario. End of bullish scenario can be found from Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low indicator. Whenever it's "High Short MA" and "High Long MA" crosses it is very close to top. This indicator is repainting so it means we can estimate end of bull season by "Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low" indicator.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IronheadNAD
NZDUSD-4H-TREND CONTINUATIONNZDUSD is looking bearish in HTF 1. Conditional Scoring: Bearish sentiment is derived from expectations of deteriorating economic conditions in New Zealand relative to the US. 2. COT-FILP: Bearishness is based on speculative positioning in the futures market, where traders anticipate a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate. 3. Seasonal Patterns: Bearishness during the first two weeks of May since the last 5, 10, and 15yr is attributed to seasonal factors, such as decreases in exports or shifts in interest rate differentials. 4. Fundamentals: Improvements in leading economic indicators and exogenous factors suggest strength in the NZD, while a decline in endogenous factors implies potential weakness in the currency. 5. Technicals: Bearishness in the trend and continuation pattern suggests a downward trajectory in the NZDUSD pair, while bullish divergences might indicate a potential reversal despite other technical factors pointing to bearish. Overall, the analysis concludes with a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD pair, considering both fundamental and technical factors.
Short
by AamirZahirali
1
Here is intraday swing forecast for GOLD, heading towards 2300As we expected in 2023, we know any limited supply commodities will lead to an All Time High caused by FEDs monetary policy When we combine with Gann Method on how he predict everything, we know it will really happens for sure. Now we can see that GOLD and BTC will reach All Time High as soon as possible Watch the time and date we have mentioned in the analysis, time will control as swing reversal while price will control market behavior. While yellow line in Gann Fan act as fair value slope, so price will be back on that yellow line before it change its direction
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Chartwatcher1996
End-of-Quarter sell-off effectAccording to ChatGPT: Yes, end-of-quarter sell-offs are a phenomenon observed in the stock market where investors may sell off their holdings toward the end of a financial quarter. There are several reasons why such sell-offs occur: Portfolio Rebalancing: Institutional investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, often rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter to maintain their desired asset allocation. If certain stocks have performed well and become overweighted in the portfolio, they may sell some of those stocks to bring the allocation back in line with their strategy. Window Dressing: Fund managers may engage in window dressing at the end of each quarter. This involves buying or selling securities to improve the appearance of their portfolio holdings in reports to clients or shareholders. Quarterly Earnings Reports: Companies typically release their quarterly earnings reports shortly after the end of each quarter. If these reports are disappointing or if there are concerns about future earnings growth, investors may sell off their holdings in those companies. Tax Considerations: Individual investors may engage in tax-loss harvesting toward the end of the quarter to realize losses for tax purposes. This could lead to increased selling pressure on certain stocks. These are just a few reasons why end-of-quarter sell-offs may occur in the stock market. However, it's important to note that not every quarter sees significant sell-offs, and market behavior can vary depending on a wide range of factors including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment.
SP:SPX
by citsvar
Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 . As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now. As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action. Natural gas storage Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March. The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020. While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years. These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high? Unseasonal weather One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating. Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states: “Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.” The EIA adds: “We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.” High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas… Price Seasonality Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January. Price Action On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance. On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility. To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by inspirante
2
AUDUSD Seasonality for October is 50/50The Seasonality of AUDUSD is showing average 50/50 the Aussie will out performe the USD during October, during this moth if the sentiment will shift to a less hawkish #Fed and traders start to price rate cutt by the US central bank. The AUD could surge up to 5% vs the #usd. During the past 10 years AUDUSD performance was like this Gains 5 gaining Oct in 10yr, Average Profit +1.87% and Max Profit +3.53% Losses 5 lossing Oct in 10yr, Average Loss -1.65% and Max Loss -2.41% See the full data on this link: twitter.com
by OmarNAMOUCHI
NQ Framing: anticipating seasonal LowHello everyone, We have had a bearish weekly bias and have continued downward today crossing an important level. As shared previously, I have been watching these levels in case we get a new low for October, surpassing the earlier one, signaling the seasonal low for Q4. We are very close to breaking that level. Rarely do you come this close to an important level without reaching it. I would like to see 14586 broken, for a new low. There ARE levels below that, and of course anything is possible. However, I will consider the break of 14586 the seasonal low for this quarter, unless convincing signs of further downside occur. Important to note we are framed by a weekly gap above and below- there is a lot of room between this range. I will be looking for daily moves between those for now. Have a great weekend!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by The_Lioness
Uptober is here: what it means for Bitcoin and the crypto marketAs October arrives, crypto enthusiasts and traders are gearing up for what has affectionately become known as "Uptober." Historically, October has proven to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with significant price movements and market-shaping events. In this article, we'll explore the historical context of Uptober, examine potential factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month, and provide insights to help you navigate this exciting period. Historical Significance of October in Crypto: October holds a special place in the hearts of crypto enthusiasts due to several notable events that have occurred in this month over the years. One of the most iconic moments is the mysterious launch of the Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto on October 31, 2008. This event marked the beginning of the revolutionary blockchain technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Bitcoin has experienced significant price movements during previous Octobers. Notably, in October 2017, Bitcoin's price surged to an all-time high of nearly $20,000, sparking a frenzy of interest and investment in the cryptocurrency. This bull run was followed by a market correction, but it cemented October as a month to watch for crypto traders. Factors Influencing Uptober 2023: While historical data provides intriguing insights, it's crucial to consider the current landscape and potential catalysts for Uptober 2023. Here are some factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month: Institutional Adoption: The continued involvement of institutional investors and large corporations in the crypto space is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics. Positive news regarding institutional adoption, such as more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, could boost confidence in the market. Regulatory Developments: Regulatory actions and statements from governments around the world can have a substantial impact on crypto markets. Traders will closely monitor any regulatory news that may provide clarity or uncertainty regarding the legality and oversight of cryptocurrencies. Market Sentiment: Crypto markets are highly sensitive to investor sentiment. Positive sentiment can lead to FOMO (fear of missing out) buying, while negative sentiment can trigger panic selling. Events like conferences, major announcements, or celebrity endorsements can influence market sentiment. Global Economic Conditions: Broader economic conditions, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, can drive interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional financial uncertainties. Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," tends to perform well in such environments. Navigating Uptober: As Uptober unfolds, it's essential to approach the market with a clear strategy and risk management plan. Here are some tips for navigating this exciting yet volatile period: Diversify Your Portfolio: Avoid putting all your investments into a single cryptocurrency. Diversification can help spread risk. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments in the crypto space. Information is key to making informed decisions. Set Realistic Goals: Define your investment goals and risk tolerance. Avoid chasing quick profits and be prepared for market fluctuations. Use Technical Analysis: Consider using technical analysis tools and indicators to make informed trading decisions. Stay Calm: Emotions can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your trading plan and avoid making decisions based on fear or greed. In conclusion, Uptober is an exciting time for the crypto market, filled with opportunities and challenges. By staying informed, adopting a strategic approach, and managing risk, traders and investors can make the most of this pivotal month in the world of cryptocurrencies. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a newcomer, October promises to be a captivating chapter in the ongoing crypto narrative.
Long
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms