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Seasonality-trading

NZDUSD-4H-TREND CONTINUATIONNZDUSD is looking bearish in HTF 1. Conditional Scoring: Bearish sentiment is derived from expectations of deteriorating economic conditions in New Zealand relative to the US. 2. COT-FILP: Bearishness is based on speculative positioning in the futures market, where traders anticipate a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate. 3. Seasonal Patterns: Bearishness during the first two weeks of May since the last 5, 10, and 15yr is attributed to seasonal factors, such as decreases in exports or shifts in interest rate differentials. 4. Fundamentals: Improvements in leading economic indicators and exogenous factors suggest strength in the NZD, while a decline in endogenous factors implies potential weakness in the currency. 5. Technicals: Bearishness in the trend and continuation pattern suggests a downward trajectory in the NZDUSD pair, while bullish divergences might indicate a potential reversal despite other technical factors pointing to bearish. Overall, the analysis concludes with a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD pair, considering both fundamental and technical factors.
Short
by AamirZahirali
1
Here is intraday swing forecast for GOLD, heading towards 2300As we expected in 2023, we know any limited supply commodities will lead to an All Time High caused by FEDs monetary policy When we combine with Gann Method on how he predict everything, we know it will really happens for sure. Now we can see that GOLD and BTC will reach All Time High as soon as possible Watch the time and date we have mentioned in the analysis, time will control as swing reversal while price will control market behavior. While yellow line in Gann Fan act as fair value slope, so price will be back on that yellow line before it change its direction
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by sigmaCEO
End-of-Quarter sell-off effectAccording to ChatGPT: Yes, end-of-quarter sell-offs are a phenomenon observed in the stock market where investors may sell off their holdings toward the end of a financial quarter. There are several reasons why such sell-offs occur: Portfolio Rebalancing: Institutional investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, often rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter to maintain their desired asset allocation. If certain stocks have performed well and become overweighted in the portfolio, they may sell some of those stocks to bring the allocation back in line with their strategy. Window Dressing: Fund managers may engage in window dressing at the end of each quarter. This involves buying or selling securities to improve the appearance of their portfolio holdings in reports to clients or shareholders. Quarterly Earnings Reports: Companies typically release their quarterly earnings reports shortly after the end of each quarter. If these reports are disappointing or if there are concerns about future earnings growth, investors may sell off their holdings in those companies. Tax Considerations: Individual investors may engage in tax-loss harvesting toward the end of the quarter to realize losses for tax purposes. This could lead to increased selling pressure on certain stocks. These are just a few reasons why end-of-quarter sell-offs may occur in the stock market. However, it's important to note that not every quarter sees significant sell-offs, and market behavior can vary depending on a wide range of factors including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment.
SP:SPX
by citsvar
Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 . As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now. As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action. Natural gas storage Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March. The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020. While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years. These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high? Unseasonal weather One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating. Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states: “Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.” The EIA adds: “We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.” High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas… Price Seasonality Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January. Price Action On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance. On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility. To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by inspirante
2
AUDUSD Seasonality for October is 50/50The Seasonality of AUDUSD is showing average 50/50 the Aussie will out performe the USD during October, during this moth if the sentiment will shift to a less hawkish #Fed and traders start to price rate cutt by the US central bank. The AUD could surge up to 5% vs the #usd. During the past 10 years AUDUSD performance was like this Gains 5 gaining Oct in 10yr, Average Profit +1.87% and Max Profit +3.53% Losses 5 lossing Oct in 10yr, Average Loss -1.65% and Max Loss -2.41% See the full data on this link: twitter.com
by OmarNAMOUCHI
NQ Framing: anticipating seasonal LowHello everyone, We have had a bearish weekly bias and have continued downward today crossing an important level. As shared previously, I have been watching these levels in case we get a new low for October, surpassing the earlier one, signaling the seasonal low for Q4. We are very close to breaking that level. Rarely do you come this close to an important level without reaching it. I would like to see 14586 broken, for a new low. There ARE levels below that, and of course anything is possible. However, I will consider the break of 14586 the seasonal low for this quarter, unless convincing signs of further downside occur. Important to note we are framed by a weekly gap above and below- there is a lot of room between this range. I will be looking for daily moves between those for now. Have a great weekend!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by The_Lioness
Uptober is here: what it means for Bitcoin and the crypto marketAs October arrives, crypto enthusiasts and traders are gearing up for what has affectionately become known as "Uptober." Historically, October has proven to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with significant price movements and market-shaping events. In this article, we'll explore the historical context of Uptober, examine potential factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month, and provide insights to help you navigate this exciting period. Historical Significance of October in Crypto: October holds a special place in the hearts of crypto enthusiasts due to several notable events that have occurred in this month over the years. One of the most iconic moments is the mysterious launch of the Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto on October 31, 2008. This event marked the beginning of the revolutionary blockchain technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Bitcoin has experienced significant price movements during previous Octobers. Notably, in October 2017, Bitcoin's price surged to an all-time high of nearly $20,000, sparking a frenzy of interest and investment in the cryptocurrency. This bull run was followed by a market correction, but it cemented October as a month to watch for crypto traders. Factors Influencing Uptober 2023: While historical data provides intriguing insights, it's crucial to consider the current landscape and potential catalysts for Uptober 2023. Here are some factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month: Institutional Adoption: The continued involvement of institutional investors and large corporations in the crypto space is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics. Positive news regarding institutional adoption, such as more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, could boost confidence in the market. Regulatory Developments: Regulatory actions and statements from governments around the world can have a substantial impact on crypto markets. Traders will closely monitor any regulatory news that may provide clarity or uncertainty regarding the legality and oversight of cryptocurrencies. Market Sentiment: Crypto markets are highly sensitive to investor sentiment. Positive sentiment can lead to FOMO (fear of missing out) buying, while negative sentiment can trigger panic selling. Events like conferences, major announcements, or celebrity endorsements can influence market sentiment. Global Economic Conditions: Broader economic conditions, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, can drive interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional financial uncertainties. Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," tends to perform well in such environments. Navigating Uptober: As Uptober unfolds, it's essential to approach the market with a clear strategy and risk management plan. Here are some tips for navigating this exciting yet volatile period: Diversify Your Portfolio: Avoid putting all your investments into a single cryptocurrency. Diversification can help spread risk. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments in the crypto space. Information is key to making informed decisions. Set Realistic Goals: Define your investment goals and risk tolerance. Avoid chasing quick profits and be prepared for market fluctuations. Use Technical Analysis: Consider using technical analysis tools and indicators to make informed trading decisions. Stay Calm: Emotions can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your trading plan and avoid making decisions based on fear or greed. In conclusion, Uptober is an exciting time for the crypto market, filled with opportunities and challenges. By staying informed, adopting a strategic approach, and managing risk, traders and investors can make the most of this pivotal month in the world of cryptocurrencies. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a newcomer, October promises to be a captivating chapter in the ongoing crypto narrative.
Long
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
Ever wonder why Aug and Sep are weak months?Ever wonder why the market is historically weaker in August and September? On August 15 interest on treasuries is paid from the Fed "other reserves" account which appears to briefly tighten central bank liquidity (normally adverse to risk assets during the QE/QT era). On September 15 the final quarterly tax payment for the fiscal year is due, which seems to be preceded by a brief drawdown. The combination of the 2 events this time of the year result in seasonal weakness. Looking at the years 2015 through 2022 we can observe that the market was: trending up leading into August 75% of the time, flat or down from 8/15 to 9/15 63% of the time, and finished the year higher than the 9/15 close 87% of the time. Additionally, since 1938 there are 14 years in which the market advances >10% through July that are followed by a negative August. They all finish the year higher, with an average rest of year performance of 9.9% (median 8.7%). This history suggests that the earlier part of September is a stronger time to take profit, or trim/exit any positions, while after the 15th should be favorable to accumulate or start new positions. Sources: This is a link to ANG Traders, a seeking alpha author that did a study on years 2016 to 2022. His analysis is incredible. seekingalpha.com This is a link to Ed Clissolds twitter post with the prior years with S&P advancing >10% through July. twitter.com This is a link to the seasonality chart created by EW_T. These seasonality charts have a bar that represents % of the month in positive territory and a number at the bottom that is the average gain/loss. www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by Ben_1148x2
2
URA vs. U308 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Uranium Bull IndicatorPerformance comparison between Global X Uranium ETF versus U308 Futures. One of many Momentum Indicators out there that track Bullish movements in Uranium Sector. Uranium stocks haven't always been closely-correlated to Futures due to their "risk-on" nature...so when stocks start outperforming when Futures + other confluences are also rallying.. You might have a good ol' fashion Uranium Bull run on your hands. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: COMEX:UX1! COMEX:UX2! ASX ETFs: ASX:ATOM ASX:URNM US/OTC ETFs: OTC:SRUUF AMEX:URA NASDAQ:URNJ AMEX:URNM
AMEX:URALong
by BlueHatInvestor
3
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022. Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement) Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension) Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes.. Boost/Follow appreciated. Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2! ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA NYSE: NYSE:VALE
SGX:FEF2!Long
by BlueHatInvestor
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders on the DailyThe SPY (S&P 500 Index) resembles a quite clear Head & Shoulders Pattern which is generally bearish. The daily candle chart shows a right shoulder forming with a rejection from the $445 area. With this rejection and a continuation downwards, we could see a harder fall if this aligns with the left shoulder and follows the pattern. The other main indices also follow a similar pattern formation and could follow with a market downturn. Watching that $445 level is key to see a confirmation retest and rejection downwards. Following the lower levels, some price targets would first be the neckline as shown on the chart posted. A break below the neckline could result in a fall of the S&P 500 and if following the complete Head & Shoulders we could be seeing a realistic price target of the $410-$420 area. Other than technicals fundamentals are definitely quite alright for the market as of now. But maybe a little too alright in my opinion. We have seen a market melt up with interest rates still sky-high resulting in more risk-ON investing rather than investing in CD's or Treasuries offering up to 5.5%. The Greed being shown in this market is definitely visible and is something to keep note of if we break the neckline. Fear & Panic Selling could most definitely occur in this type of situation especially considering the market rally we've seen this summer. Seasonally the fall has been quite bearish for the markets overall, and as we head into September & October we could see a similar trend to the past, but nothing is sure. Lastly, in September / October Student Loan Repayments are resuming which could suck out millions if not billions of dollars from the United States economy as young adults chip away at debt and sacrifice spending on goods & services. This will most definitely be a crucial effect on the economy and could send markets downwards. Keep an eye out for this pattern to play out... Definitely something to watch as we move in to Fall! Thanks
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZachSap
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production. This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas. This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil. Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production. This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic. Demand Demand for Natural Gas comes from: • Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand. • Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. • Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol. Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating. Inventories Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand. However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices. Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining. Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September. Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December. Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December. However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance. Henry Hub Futures Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched. CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME. Asset Managers are Bullish Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment. Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022. Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months. At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again. Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely. LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility. Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply. However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day. Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period. Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average. EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years. In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year. Trade Setup With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices. Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. Entry: 2.484 Target: 3.099 Stop Loss: 2.172 Profit at Target: USD 6,150 Loss at Stop: USD 3,120 Reward/Risk: 2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
17
SOYB- the soybean ETF moves on buying pressure LONGOn the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including the collapse of the Black Sea shipping deal as bad actor Russia continues to inflict chaos has a ripple effect throughout agricultural commodity markets. Soybean prices are not following the chaos and volatility of the general markets like AMEX and NASDAQ but rather they follow the beat of their own drum like seasonality crop yields shipping costs and others. This make an alternative to avoid going heavy into topping or sinking general markets. They allow diversification not unlike adding bonds to a portfolio when trying to weather the storm. Given the narrow trading range I will play this with some call options If you would like my idea of an excellent call option trade please leave a comment. See also my ideas on WEAT and CORN. se to expire after the harvest and into the planting in in Brazil.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by AwesomeAvani