Get started

Seasonality

EURUSD - Euro in the new year!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its downward channel. Maintaining the drawn upward trend line will lead to the continuation of the upward trend towards the top of the channel. In the Eurozone, inflation, which peaked at 10.6% in 2022, has been steadily declining and has approached the European Central Bank’s 2% target since early this year. Economists at Vanguard have projected: “Amid weak economic growth, we expect both headline and core inflation to fall below 2% by the end of 2025.” The OECD forecasts that the Eurozone’s annual growth will reach 0.8% this year and rise to 1.3% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. However, 2025 could present significant challenges for the Eurozone’s economic activities, particularly with the anticipated U.S. tariff policies. Mastercard reported that total U.S. retail sales during this holiday season grew by 3.8%.Online shopping remained the preferred choice for consumers, experiencing a 6.7% growth compared to last year. Additionally, retail sales, excluding automobiles, increased by 3.8% from November to December 24 compared to the same period last year. Inflationary risks in the U.S. remain prominent, partly influenced by President Trump’s proposed policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration. Consequently, consumer spending, a key driver of U.S. economic growth since the pandemic, might face challenges as trade policies affect the prices of imported goods, including apparel, vehicles, and steel. According to the latest U.S. jobs report, the economy added 227,000 new jobs in November, while October’s job gains were revised to 36,000. The average monthly job growth in 2024 was approximately 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% in November, exceeding expectations. Despite this increase, the U.S. long-term unemployment rate remains historically low. Wage growth in November was consistent with October’s figures, showing a 0.4% monthly and annual increase, slightly above market expectations. Overall, the U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of easing contractionary pressures. Silvercrest Asset Management Group analysts expect job growth to persist due to the high number of open positions. According to the latest JOLTS report, there were 7.74 million job openings in the U.S. as of October. While this is significantly lower than the 12 million openings during the pandemic, it remains above the typical 6-7 million range seen in the late 2010s. In the Eurozone, the October employment report revealed a historically low unemployment rate of 6.3%. This indicates that the anticipated economic slowdown and hiring reductions have not yet significantly impacted labor market stability. Meanwhile, wage growth in the Eurozone reached a record high of 5.5% this year, potentially adding inflationary pressures. Economists at Vanguard anticipate that, with Germany’s economic growth slowing sharply, the Eurozone’s unemployment rate will rise to above 6% by the end of 2025. Analysts at Goldman Sachs share this outlook, stating: “Given our forecast for weaker economic growth, we expect unemployment to rise next year, reaching 6.7% by early 2026. Additionally, we anticipate wage growth to decline to 3.2% by the end of Q4 2025, as wage adjustment trends conclude and the labor market softens.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea: Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around. Historical Context: In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors. Key Observations: 2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market. 2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom. 2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs. 2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption. 2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle. The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases. What About This Year? 📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally. 📈 Factors to Watch: Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength. Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum. Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Case: If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle. 2️⃣ Bearish Case: If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase. Why This Matters: Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference. What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
by SetKryptoBalans
The ₿itcoin Strategic Playbook: Timing Crypto Market CyclesWhy 4 Years Matters: The Confluence of Cycles Markets move in cycles: periods of growth and contraction, driven by psychology, supply/demand, and macroeconomic forces. Two major cycles intersect in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin Halving Cycle: A predictable event every 4 years, reducing Bitcoin's supply. Historically, prices surge in the months following. US Election Cycle: Presidential elections occur every 4 years, influencing fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. The strategy leverages the intersection of these cycles for precision timing. Interplay Between Cycles Historically, Bitcoin halving’s and US elections have occurred in the same year, creating a "perfect storm" for market volatility and opportunity. Example: The 2020 halving coincided with the US election, followed by a historic bull market. This alignment reflects how macroeconomic events can amplify crypto trends, rather than being purely coincidental. Fundamentals Behind the Halving Cycle What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). This built-in scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s supply, historically leading to price increases post-halving. Why It Matters Historical Trends: 2012: Halving triggered a bull run peaking in 2013. 2016: Halving triggered the 2017 bull market. 2020: Halving led to the 2021 price surge. Each halving decreases new Bitcoin supply while demand continues to grow. Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead Bitcoin’s dominance often peaks post-halving as it leads the market rally. During the bull phase, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead, offering higher growth potential. The Role of Elections Macroeconomic Impacts Election years bring uncertainty about future policies, creating market volatility. Policies on inflation, interest rates, and technology affect both traditional and crypto markets. Why It Aligns with the Halving The convergence of halving-induced optimism and election-driven uncertainty amplifies market movements. Example: 2020 saw the halving, COVID-19 stimulus, and election uncertainty, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive growth. How the Strategy Plays Out Start at the Bottom (Accumulation): Look for signs of market capitulation (e.g., extreme fear in sentiment indices, low volume, prolonged price stagnation). Use indicators like RSI divergence to identify oversold conditions. Build positions gradually, focusing on projects with solid fundamentals. Ride the Markup Phase (Bull): Hold positions as prices rise, following the trend. Adjust exposure based on market conditions but avoid selling too early. Exit at the Top (Distribution): Watch for euphoric sentiment (e.g., excessive media coverage, speculative mania). Use tools like Fibonacci extensions, volume analysis, or the Fear & Greed Index to identify when to take profits. Survive the Markdown Phase (Bear): Avoid buying into dips during the crash. Preserve capital for the next accumulation phase. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index: BNC:BLX
BNC:BLX
by azad.motala
BITCOIN in a LIVERMORE FunnelThe accumulation and distribution volume matches the positive and negative money flows of the first 5 waves in a Jesse Livermore stock cylinder. Will wave 6 see a rush of positive money flow into #Bitcoin into the end of the year? Let's see If it does then that will further cement this pattern of accumulation , sideways movement then breakout with continuation of buying power into the Bull market top. Let's observe this in real time shall we? Should be a fun few months ahead of us after a long period of churn. S/O to @arvine11 for bringing up the Livermore stock trend analysis.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
1
NAS100 - Nasdaq, waiting for the final days of Santa Rally?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the supply zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the demand zone will provide us with the conditions to buy it. The Federal Reserve, in its latest meeting, reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.25%–4.50%. However, FOMC members now forecast the 2025 interest rate to hover around 3.9%, higher than their September projection of 3.4%. Markets were largely surprised by the Fed’s hawkish stance, especially following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indirectly emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that policymakers are currently assessing the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth. This shift has unsettled investors, dampening the optimistic market sentiment that typically precedes the Christmas holiday. Concerns are rising that if the Trump administration follows through on its campaign promises regarding taxes, tariffs, and immigration, the Fed may have to reverse its rate-cutting trajectory and adopt rate hikes instead. The outlook for 2025 has also seen adjustments. The Federal Reserve now expects only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts forecasted in September. This adjustment reflects the persistent inflation that remains above the central bank’s target range. Following the Fed’s announcement, the S&P 500 experienced its steepest decline in 27 months, falling over 3.5%. The last time the U.S. stock index saw such a significant drop was in September 2022, during peak inflation and amid aggressive monetary tightening. Similarly, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.6%, marking its worst decline in five months. Morgan Stanley also revised its outlook for the Fed, predicting two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, instead of the previously anticipated three cuts. On the economic front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, scheduled for release today, is likely to draw market attention. This index has risen steadily over the past two months, while one of its components—the sub-index measuring “job finding difficulty”—has declined during the same period. Given its strong correlation with the official unemployment rate, a further drop in December could signal job growth and a stronger dollar. On Tuesday, November data for durable goods orders and new home sales will be released. Durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% in October, are expected to decline by 0.4% month-over-month. However, investors often focus on the more specific “non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft),” which tends to exhibit less volatility and is a key input for GDP calculations. Overall, if market volatility persists during the holiday season, equities and bonds are likely to be impacted. The Fed’s hawkish tone is unfavorable for stocks, suggesting continued selling pressure as Treasury yields rise. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week. If demand falls short of expectations, bond yields could face additional upward pressure. Deutsche Bank, in a recent note, highlighted a significant shift in the Fed’s tone. Although the Fed reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%–4.50%, analysts noted a more hawkish stance than expected. One key indicator of this shift is the upward revision of the 2025 median inflation forecast to 2.5%, which Deutsche Bank described as “notable.” According to this report, the Fed does not anticipate inflation returning to its 2% target until 2027. Furthermore, the Fed’s updated forward guidance lacked any clear indications of future rate cuts. Jerome Powell described the December rate cut as a “difficult decision,” which faced opposition from Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed. Deutsche Bank analysts believe the Fed is unlikely to take any action during its January meeting, and the current pause could extend into a prolonged hold throughout 2025. Forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain above 4% next year, with no additional cuts anticipated.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
BTCUSD on the Brink: Massive Moves Expected – Are You Ready?Summary : This analysis examines two ascending wedges visible on the BTCUSD chart—a larger wedge on the weekly timeframe and a smaller wedge on the 4-hour chart. The price has broken out of the smaller wedge and is consolidating above the upper boundary of the larger wedge, which currently acts as support. Projections suggest a short-term decline to $82,000, followed by a rebound to $114,000 in mid-February, and a subsequent decline to $106,000 by the end of March. Key decision points are identified where trendlines for MACD, ATR, and RSI intersect, providing areas to monitor for potential price reversals. Indicators such as RSI divergence, MACD crossings, and increasing ATR signal weakening momentum and heightened volatility. Historical analysis aligns with the expectation of significant price movements between mid-December and mid-January. Ascending Wedge Patterns Two ascending wedges are visible: - The larger ascending wedge is on the weekly timeframe . - A smaller ascending wedge is present on the 4-hour chart . The price has broken out of the smaller wedge and is consolidating above the upper boundary of the larger wedge, which serves as support. There is a possibility of the price falling back into the larger wedge if support weakens. Price Projections Short-Term : The price is expected to decline to approximately $82,000 by mid-January . Medium-Term : A rise to around $114,000 is projected by mid-February . Long-Term : The price is anticipated to drop to approximately $106,000 by the end of March . Decision Points Mid-January : First decision point, suggested by MACD. Mid-February : Second decision point, aligned with ATR. Mid-March : Third decision point, indicated by RSI trends. RSI Divergence A bearish divergence is observed, where the price forms higher highs while RSI forms lower highs . This divergence is present on both the daily and weekly timeframes , signaling potential weakening momentum and a possible reversal. MACD Observations The MACD line has crossed below the signal line for the second time, reinforcing a bearish sentiment . ATR Analysis The ATR (Average True Range) on the weekly timeframe is increasing alongside price action. This indicates heightened volatility , often preceding significant market moves. Historical Volatility Bitcoin historically shows increased volatility between mid-December and mid-January . This aligns with the current technical setup and suggests the potential for significant price movements during this period. Sentiment Short-Term : Neutral to bearish , with a decline to $82,000 expected. Medium-Term : Bullish , with a rise to $114,000 anticipated. The overall outlook is mixed, with caution advised around key levels. DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALWAYS CONDUCT YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by fiki
Bitcoin Dominance Cycles: Key Insights: Litecoin, Cardano, PLSDiscover the repeating cycles of Bitcoin dominance and how they correlate with altcoins like Litecoin, Cardano, and Pulsechain. This analysis reveals a potential peak in Bitcoin dominance by March, likely ahead of the broader market cycle top. Could this be the key to timing the market? Dive into the chart and uncover actionable insights for the coming months. 📈 Highlights: Bitcoin dominance historical cycles Altcoin trends aligned with dominance shifts Potential implications for March 2024 🔗 Add your thoughts and share if you find this valuable! #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingView #Altcoins #Litecoin #Cardano #Pulsechain #CryptoCycles #BTCdominance"
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Tommetje
Golden Horizons: Technical Precision Meets Fundamental PowerOANDA:XAUUSD - Daily Gold’s Bullish Breakout Shines Bright! Gold (XAU/USD) has confirmed a strong breakout from a Falling Wedge and Rounding Bottom, rebounding off the 50% Fibonacci level (2,533.75). With the next target at the 161.8% extension (3,107.09), this setup offers a potential 16.49% gain in just 77 days. Ideal for position traders seeking long-term growth and swing traders capitalising on interim moves. 🚀✨ 🌟 Technical Highlights: Gold’s Bullish Setup in Focus Gold (XAU/USD) is setting the stage for a remarkable upward journey, supported by two key bullish patterns that signal strong momentum ahead: 1. Falling Wedge The recent breakout from a falling wedge pattern is a textbook example of a bullish continuation. This move signals the end of a consolidation phase, where sellers lose control and buyers step in decisively. The breakout is accompanied by strong momentum, confirming that the bulls are in command and driving prices higher. 2. Rounding Bottom Formation Adding to the bullish case is a clear rounding bottom pattern, a powerful long-term reversal signal. This pattern reflects steady accumulation by buyers, often seen as the market transitions from bearish sentiment to a confident bullish trend. It provides a solid base for sustained upward movement. After retracing to the 50% Fibonacci level (2,533.75), the price rebounded strongly, breaking out with conviction. The next key target lies at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (3,107.09), representing a potential 16.49% gain over the next 77 days. This setup combines technical precision with a clear path for growth, making it a compelling opportunity for traders to watch. Gold’s journey upward is gaining momentum—don’t miss the move! 🌍 Fundamental Insights: Gold’s Shining Role Gold continues to solidify its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset, thriving on a combination of global uncertainties and supportive monetary policies. The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, characterised by steady interest rates, has reduced the appeal of fixed-income investments, making gold a preferred alternative for investors seeking stability in a low-yield environment. Simultaneously, persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions are driving investors toward gold as a hedge against declining purchasing power and economic instability. As crises in key regions escalate, gold’s reputation as a reliable store of value during turbulent times becomes even more pronounced. This blend of factors is propelling gold’s bullish momentum, appealing to both long-term investors and short-term traders eager to capitalise on its growing demand. Gold isn’t just performing; it’s standing out as a pillar of strength in today’s unpredictable financial landscape. 📆 Seasonal Boost: The Golden Demand Wave Gold traditionally enjoys heightened demand in the first quarter, driven by cyclical buying patterns in key markets like India and China. In India, the wedding season and festivals fuel a surge in gold purchases, while in China, the Lunar New Year celebrations see gold as a symbol of wealth and prosperity. These cultural and seasonal factors consistently create upward pressure on prices during this period. This seasonal demand perfectly aligns with gold’s current technical breakout and strong fundamental support. The convergence of these factors strengthens the bullish outlook, making the first quarter a historically proven and timely opportunity for traders and investors to capitalise on gold’s momentum. 🙏✨ Thank You for Reading! Wishing you incredible success on your trading journey! 🌟 Always remember, proper risk management is the cornerstone of sustainable growth in the markets. Stay disciplined, stay confident, and let the charts guide your path. 📈💼 Good luck with your trades—may profits be ever in your favor! 🚀💰
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SpicyPips
1
BTC Market Cycle: Is Distribution Signaling a Coming Correction?BTC Market Cycle: Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution 🚀 Timeframe: Weekly Analysis📉 BTC/USDT is following a classic Wyckoff Market Cycle, transitioning through three distinct phases 🎯 1️⃣ Accumulation Phase (2018–2020): Smart money accumulated BTC at low prices in a tight range after the previous bear market. Low volatility and bearish sentiment dominated this period. 2️⃣ Manipulation Phase (2022–2023): A choppy sideways market with false breakouts and shakeouts, designed to confuse retail traders and consolidate more BTC into institutional hands. 3️⃣ Distribution Phase (2024–2025): A euphoric uptrend, where institutions are likely offloading positions into the enthusiasm of retail buyers. This phase often marks the cycle peak. Trading Strategy 💡 - For Long-Term Investors : Consider scaling out positions during this distribution phase. Prepare to re-enter during the next accumulation cycle. - For Swing Traders : Look for reversal signals in the distribution zone. A confirmed breakdown could lead to significant retracement toward previous accumulation zones. Risk Management 🚨 - Be cautious of euphoria-driven rallies. - Watch volume and price action for signs of weakness (e.g., declining momentum, sudden sell-offs). Disclaimer⚡ This is not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management. 🔄Hope this analysis finds you well! BTC/USDT is showcasing a textbook Wyckoff Market Cycle with clear phases of Accumulation, Manipulation, and now Distribution. Are we nearing the peak, or could this rally surprise us further? Let me know your thoughts! 🔍
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
When is altcoin season?When examining the “ CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D ” 12-monthly chart, a clear pattern emerges for altcoin seasons. We observe three years of downward ▼ momentum and consolidation, followed by a year or more of upward ▲ momentum. This pattern could be attributed to market cycles and investor behavior, where extended periods of consolidation are followed by explosive growth. During the consolidation phase, prices stabilize, creating a base for future gains. Once market sentiment shifts, upward momentum takes over, often leading to significant price increases. In previous cycles, we noticed that the altcoin season typically starts after major market cycles. For example, the 2017 altcoin season followed the 2016 cycle, and the 2021 altcoin season followed the 2020 cycle. When zoomed in on the monthly chart, both the 2017 and 2021 altcoin seasons started in January. This consistent timing suggests that the next altcoin season could commence in January 2025. However, there has already been a bullish candle close in November, which could indicate a shift in the pattern. If December also closes bullish, we might see a two-month variance in the current cycle. By examining fractals from past cycles, we can attempt to predict where the current altcoin season might peak. The 2017 fractal indicates a duration of 151 days, with dominance potentially reaching 22% around May or June 2025. In contrast, the 2021 fractal suggests a longer cycle of 365 days, with dominance peaking at approximately 24.5% around December 2025 or January 2026. All charts 📈 indicate that the bottom is in, and all dips are opportunities for buying. Next year's growth looks incredibly promising. 🚀 What do you think? Will the 2024/2025 Altcoin cycle follow the same pattern, or will we see a deviation?
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by azad.motala
EUR/USD: Poised for a Reversal?On November 23, FOREXCOM:EURUSD broke below the critical 1.05 support zone, reaching a low of 1.0336. However, the pair quickly reversed course and has since been trading in a range between 1.0450 and 1.06. A closer look at the price action suggests the pair has established a strong floor and is awaiting a catalyst for an upward reversal. That catalyst could very well come today, with the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut and subsequent press conference. Given the accumulated market tension, an accelerated move to the upside seems likely. Key Levels to Watch : Support: Any dips below 1.05 should be viewed as buying opportunities, with the potential for a rebound. Resistance: A target around 1.0750 appears realistic in the current context. Invalidation Level: If the price falls back below 1.04, this bullish scenario would be negated.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
Why we're on guard for a USD pullbackStrong economic data for the US alongside expectations for the Fed to significantly reduce the pace of their easing cycle has been a main driver for USD bulls. And while the dollar could reach new high with the current backdrop, we're about to enter a phase of the year which greatly favours USD bears. Looking at monthly and daily seasonality patterns in December and forward returns for the USD around Fed meetings, I outline why a pullback - even idf only minor - could be due for the mighty greenback. MS
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CityIndex
AUDJPY Analysis - BuyAUDJPY Analysis Overview 1. Seasonality: AUD: Bearish until midweek — Seasonal weakness in AUD early in the week aligns with a short-term bearish sentiment. JPY: Bullish — JPY strength throughout the week supports its safe-haven appeal. --- 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders): AUD: 4-week flip indicates a Sell bias. Non-commercial short positions are increasing, signaling bearish sentiment for AUD. JPY: 4-week flip indicates a Buy bias. Non-commercial long positions are increasing, reinforcing bullish sentiment for JPY. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI (Leading Economic Indicator): AUD:Decreasing — Suggests deteriorating economic momentum, adding to bearish pressure. JPY: Range — Neutral economic conditions but still supportive due to JPY's safe-haven status. Endogenous Factors: AUD: Mix to Decreasing — Weak internal factors limit AUD’s strength. JPY: Increasing — Improving domestic conditions support JPY buying. --- 4. Exogenous Factors: GBPJPY: Strong Sell — Broader risk-off sentiment in the market favors safe-haven currencies like JPY over risk-sensitive ones like AUD. --- 5. Technical Analysis: On the 1-hour chart: A Cup and Handle pattern and an ABCD pattern are forming, indicating bullish potential. After point C, the price is making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), suggesting a bullish continuation. These bullish patterns present a good Buy Opportunity, especially as the price confirms its breakout above the handle. --- Bias: Buy Despite AUD's seasonal weakness early in the week, the technical setup on the 1-hour chart favors a bullish bias for AUDJPY. JPY's strength provides additional support for safe-haven flows, but the technical patterns indicate that AUDJPY has room to rally in the short term. Consider entering long positions upon confirmation of the breakout above the handle.
Long
by asadamalik