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Seasonality

Bullish Patterns and Bitcoin: A Roadmap to $125KAs anticipated by many, following Trump’s election, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge. On November 14th, it encountered its first notable correction during this upward momentum. In early December, Bitcoin crossed the critical 100k milestone for the first time. However, this achievement was followed by a swift pullback. Since then, dips have consistently been met with strong buying activity, and as of now, the price has stabilized comfortably above this key psychological level. The price action since mid-November reveals the formation of an ascending channel, a technical pattern that historically suggests a 70% probability of continuation to the upside. A decisive breakout above 107k could confirm this bullish scenario, with a measured target for the next leg up around 125k if the pattern fulfills its statistical expectation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
BTC.D Top outHistory never repeats but it tends to rime quite well. If we use that saying as the base for this thesis then we should see BTC.D top out at between 69-78% dominance using the horizontal resistance at the previous dominance top (2021). To estimate this in a timely manner we plot the dates of the halvings and the date of BTC price ATH. To extrapolate the future cycle top we take the number of days from the halvings to the BTC price ATH and add them together and divide them by the number of cycle tops. x=(a+b+c)/3 Historically we find confluence in the RSI momentum oscillator were the strength of the BTC.D is weakening hence gaining momentum to the downside. If history rimes we are entering that part of the cycle within the next 3-6 months.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ZeroXray404
Macroeconomic analysis, positioning, technical analysis. Short GHello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry. The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020. I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS - Data The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again. - Economic growth The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025. In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market. www.goldmansachs.com - Interest rates Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy. POSITIONING - COT (Commitment of Traders) Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side. www.tradingster.com . Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions. SEASONALITY We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence. Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline. Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break. Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price. Thanks for your attention!
Short
by Riikkss
GBPJPY- Reversal above 195?After reaching a low of 188, GBP/JPY reversed to the upside in a normal corrective move and found resistance near the 192 zone. A subsequent drop followed, but instead of resuming its downtrend, the pair began consolidating within a range. The emerging pattern, while not perfect, resembles an inverse Head & Shoulders. A break above the neckline would confirm this formation and pave the way for further gains, potentially targeting the 195 resistance level. I remain bullish on GBP/JPY as long as the pair stays above the recent consolidation support.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
6
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀 The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance. 💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation. This is indicated by overbought and seasonality. ⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
GBPCAD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 06GBPCAD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality GBP: Seasonality indicates a **sell** signal for GBP in the first week of December. CAD: Seasonality suggests a **strong buy** signal for CAD. Seasonality Bias: Sell GBPCAD --- 2. COT Report GBP: COT RSI: 52 weeks at 30%, 26 and 13 weeks at bottom. COT Index: 3-year at 50%, 1-year at 30%, indicating weak positioning for GBP. Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, showing a bearish sentiment. CAD: COT RSI: 52, 26, and 13 weeks at 20% and increasing, showing bullish momentum. COT Index: 3-year and 1-year at 20% and increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, with a positive bias. COT Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators: GBP: Decreasing, signaling economic weakness. CAD: Increasing, pointing to economic strength. Endogenous Factors: GBP: Decreasing, aligning with a sell sentiment. CAD: Increasing, further supporting a buy stance. Exogenous Factors: GBPCAD exogenous signal indicates a buy CAD, sell GBP sentiment. Fundamental Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence identified, indicating potential downside movement. Breakout Indicator: A red arrow confirms bearish momentum on key breakout levels. Resistance Zone: Price is currently at a strong resistance zone, showing rejection patterns. Technical Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- Final Bias: Sell GBPCAD The alignment across seasonality, COT data, fundamental indicators, and technical analysis strongly supports a sell setup for GBPCAD.
Short
by asadamalik
AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.
Long
by asadamalik
BITCOIN NEWBORN Ver.2Previous maps have factored in BTC's journey when the price was at 25k which fell to 15k. everything is very precise, but unfortunately, it turns out that the map cannot be published due to problems with language and domicile regulations! And now, I'm just looking at the equivalent of Bitcoin's current state (Feb 2023) to 2020 Feb, in 1M TF . It all starts with a rising wedge pattern and there are brekouts and brekdowns within it (it's more of a long rising wedge ) I'm sure February 2020 will happen again. And we are currently in the red candle (1 Feb 2023) at 21.8K as of this note. and again, I really believe Bitcoin will arrive at 60k-150k. you can see a rough price range for this movement of Bitcoin.
Long
by pungkymegawan
2
USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward. The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%. According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting. “GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked. Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025. Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits. According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S. LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.
Short
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality: During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish. 2. COT Report: The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD. 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD. Endogenous Factors These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias. Exogenous Factors Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend. 4. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint. Summary The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential. Bias The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD. Trade Plan Entry: 0.64746 SL: 0.65130 TP: 0.64362
Short
by asadamalik
End of Year Palladium Bull Run \o/From the current notation, I see this leveraged ETF on Palladium rising approximately 45% until the end of the year. The reasons are as follows: Fundamental Factors : With increasing sanctions on Russia, one of the main exporters of palladium, global supply may become constrained. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might drive commodity prices higher. Technical Indicators : The Palladium chart has recently formed a higher high, and a higher low appears to be developing. The price has crossed above the 200-day SMA, and now the 30-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are bullishly aligned. Seasonality: The seasonal strength in OANDA:XPDUSD is expected to begin the week after next. So, we could get ready for rising prices in Palladium!
LSE:2PALLong
by p4917