Gold to target previous month lowsJanuary as a month was a bag of choppy price action (maybe long term consolidaton, who knows) as it traded within the range of December high and low. Same being the case with DXY, only difference DXY showcased aggressive behaviour to trade higher, after it found support on 100.6.
Beginning Feb, DXY has taken out liquidity from January and December Highs. Factors influencing this move is based on
- Fed decision to keep the same rates - It's evident Fed is would like to observe the Q1 data before the rates can be lowered, by April it should be clear when to expect Fed to lower the rates, or still keep it unchanged.
- Positive news for DXY late January/Early Feb. Fed's decision to keep the same rates may not have strengthed Dollar, but it did not weaken it as well, and now with new highs forming, the bullishness in DXY might target HH. Suppported by bond yield which are targeting higher yields as well.
On the other side, gold is still within the range of December and January, still to break either low or highs. But with DXY's move to trade higher, Gold must feel the pressure to trade lower and target liquidity at monthly lows.
Seasonality
Strategic Trading Tips Before the Bitcoin HalvingAs the market faces economic challenges, Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P ) and the S&P 500 ( TVC:SPX ) are showing signs of a potential correction after significant recent gains over the last 12 months. This shift is prompting investors to reassess and strategically reallocate their assets.
In this environment, PAX Gold ( BYBIT:PAXGUSDT.P ), a digital asset backed by gold, is emerging as an increasingly attractive investment option due to its stability during uncertain times. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar ( TVC:DXY ) is indicating a shift towards more stable assets, reflecting a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market.
Strategic Recommendations for Bybit Traders
Add PAXGUSDT to Your Portfolio: Leveraging the stability of gold-backed assets such as PAXG can provide a hedge against the volatility observed in both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets.
Reduce Altcoin Exposure: Reducing your altcoin holdings can help mitigate risk, especially considering their tendency to experience amplified downward movements during Bitcoin corrections. However, for those comfortable with risk, there may be an opportunity to buy in at lower prices, potentially yielding significant gains if the market rebounds.
Buy BTC at Support Levels: Considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which may mitigate some of the potential downtrends by reducing the supply of new coins, buying BTC at current lower levels could be advantageous if the price increases post-halving.
Leverage USD Strength: With the US dollar growing stronger, it’s strategic to maintain or increase your cash positions. This could involve making new deposits, taking profits, or utilizing Bybit Earn products to take advantage of market changes.
Consider Options: Instead of just holding spot or trading perpetual contracts, also consider trading options to manage risk while benefiting from market exposure.
Reassess Risk of Existing Positions: If you're holding underwater leveraged positions, it may be a good time to reassess your overall risk and adjust your position size or margin accordingly to better withstand any potential further downward movements until a reversal occurs.
These strategies are designed to balance risk management with the potential for returns, adapting to a market that is increasingly shifting towards more conservative investment approaches.
Remember, trading cryptocurrencies, especially with leverage, carries significant risks. Employ solid risk management practices to protect your investments.
Bitcoin AnalysisThe escalation of conflict in the Middle East is likely to have an impact on the market. This could also potentially lead to the formation of an engulfing pattern in Bitcoin. I see a 70% potential for a decline here, but it's not ruled out that it may break the resistance on the H4 chart and continue to rise. The triple top has already been confirmed, and if the daily support breaks, there's a possibility that Bitcoin could drop to $40k.
Bitcoin distance from BMS 👀 #Bitcoin distance from Bull Market Support Band
As I said all last month, the mark of 74k was our local peak, you can even tell a mid-cycle peak.
📝The geopolitical upheaval was just the last drop of what was supposed to happen. Taking into account the other earlier mentioned facts soon, I do not expect new maximums to be taken, I think it will happen in a few months.
💡Against this background, there are now quite a lot of good opportunities with altcoins, many projects we just recorded tenfold profits and now there will be an opportunity again to get new projects that are currently attractive for investment in the green zone.🚀
BTC vs GOLD#Gold / CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Digital Gold) correlation 🪙
Recently, we have seen a record-strong positive correlation. This is visible in the Spearman correlation, there are much more green bars in the 2-month period. Both of these assets play the role of a defensive asset🛡️
💡Why is gold growing? The main reasons are geopolitical instability, macroeconomics, and the growth of gold purchases by some countries with large economies, which decided to reduce dependence on US government bonds.
BTC before and after HalvingBTC before and after Halving
BTC has currently broken through the trendline and supply H4
It is likely that before Halving BTC will increase another 10 thousand to create Fomo for the Halving event, then it is predicted that there will be a profit-taking phase near the hour of halving to create liquidity for leveraged and short-term transactions.
My first goal is 90 thousand like this idea.
When I break through 90 thousand x I will come back
Good Lucky!
BTC BearishOpen Interest - Rising and Above Seasonal Average and at ATH resistant level
Indicating losing bullish momentum.
COT Data: 6 month - 12month Range showing commercials are net short.
Price Structure: Daily Timeframe shows bullish however the daily range has been expanded from 38K with no sell stops being taken out. March Monthly Candle created new high. Entering new month April indicates a possible correction is under way. If 64K level is broken awaiting to buy between 50K-55K in the area of FVG and bullish OB with LTF confirmation.
OIL HIGHER ! Geopolitical issue + Eid MubarakHi Everyone,
OIL higher . target is 90.
but maybe tonight is making new high on before or after news.
(please dont risk more than 2% in trade)
watch your risk management. Good Luck.
i try to always we will keep you all updated . Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support me, i really appreciate you support !
Goodluck
i'll help you to have a great trade.
Please using good money management.
dont take any emotional trade.
Note:
Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market
Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market
Wish good luck for all people.
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i'll make more and more great analysis if this chanel grows.
on Gold, eurusd, gbpusd and oil specially.
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Thankyou.
Here is intraday swing forecast for GOLD, heading towards 2300As we expected in 2023, we know any limited supply commodities will lead to an All Time High caused by FEDs monetary policy
When we combine with Gann Method on how he predict everything, we know it will really happens for sure.
Now we can see that GOLD and BTC will reach All Time High as soon as possible
Watch the time and date we have mentioned in the analysis, time will control as swing reversal while price will control market behavior. While yellow line in Gann Fan act as fair value slope, so price will be back on that yellow line before it change its direction
XOM is on a Slippery SlopeXOM near ATH. With Bearish Divergence on the Monthly, I’m expecting a break out and rejection. Once the shooting star candle forms on the weekly, enter below the close with a 5M time horizon. I’m eyeing the 105P or 100P for September. Judging by Volume and Open Interest, I’m expecting a large move down in conjunction of an economic event.
SPY's Wedge and DivergencesThe S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) as tracked by the most liquid ETF AMEX:SPY , has continued in a wedge pattern since the lows from late October 2023. This wedge has been steep and risen quite dramatically. Bulls will not want to see this break, but given that it's an election year, would the break just be a consolidation with one more high? These are issues everyone is likely considering.
The series of negative (or bearish) divergences could continue, as anything is possible in markets. But it shouldn't be ignored either. The Supplemental Chart below shows the series of lower highs on RSI, using SPY's daily time frame.
One final note of caution. This wedge pattern technically (no pun intended) hasn't broken yet. Nor has its 21-day EMA. A break would help bears, at least short-term ones, see more downside or consolidation.
GammaLabs, who this channel follows, mentioned in its briefing today that CTAs remain max long still and may become "systematic sellers" below 4900 SPX. So more downside is needed for bears to gain traction. The technical conditions for consolidation are ripe, though, with the wedge and divergences shown. But confirmation remains needed.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NAIL a homebuilding leveraged ETF rising from support LONGNAIL on a 14 minute chart tested the support at the rising trendline confluent with the mean
anchored VWAP and has bounced and crossed over the latter. Relative strength lines are
crossing over the 50 level and the relative volume is showing a gradual rise. This is the
beginning of homebuilding season after all. Mortgage rates might be getting a cut. I will take
a long trade here expecting a swing trade for a few months. Targets are on the chart. They
are based on the resistance rising trendline as well as the upper VWAP bands.
Navigating Market Waters: Embracing Flexibility on US30In trading, adaptability is key. Reflect on the journey navigating the volatile waves of US30. While some trades may slip away, embracing the fluidity of the market ensures resilience and growth. Let's explore the importance of flexibility and seizing opportunities amidst market turbulence.
Could XRP hit $100? Charts hint at a Big moveA simple analysis of Ripple (XRP) charts reveals a rising potential for this cryptocurrency. While we cannot predict the future with certainty, cyclicity and indicators certainly suggest a significant price increase is on the horizon. The XRP can hit a much higher price point, possibly exceeding $50. 💰
DON'T FORGET , popularity matters too! XRP is currently holding strong at number 6 on CoinMarketCap ...or are The Simpsons's creator fingers in this? 😃
Share your thoughts about Ripple's future! 🤔
(Not Financial Advice)
Looks Bullish to MeThis weekly candle can be the death of crypto as we know it. Major correction, dxy could pump causing crypto to dump. It's alot of red news this month that can send dxy to the mf sky and crypto to the floor. Let's see if dxy continues its uptrend. Sheesh .. 106.952 SMASH, JP ain't playing
EURO - Short Term Buystop RaidBearish throughout the week with the daily order block being met on the 29th, one day before good Friday before retracing to the upside.
Due to the sentiment being overall bearish, many retail traders would be inclined to go with the notion that 'trend is your friend' and short the market whilst placing their stop loss above recent highs, causing smart money to capitalise on it.
Short-term bullish for euro with a pending selloff in the cards, especially if we are to see 105 attacked in the dollar index.
Either look for longs towards the upper displacement daily fair value gap or wait for the move to play out and place shorts aiming for new lows below the daily order block @ 1.07741.
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
GBPUSD - When Will We See A Shift In Structure?Rangebound price action throughout the week with hourly buyside and sellside pending to be tested.
1.26546 intraday buyside liquidity is a premium area in price which cable is most likely to run to, especially if dollar is to continue to sell-off into the daily fair value gap @ 104.144. Hourly order block @ 1.26146 has been respected from Thursday throughout.
Will we see a run on stops?
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
USD JPY - incoming 1990, then 1987?G'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Monthly
simply put, look at 1990 and the gap formed in the fresh supply above at 157.XX - 164.XX (1987). not there is a hidden zone within 1986 which can be a final supply zone.
Weekly
The market has made a double top within the weekly supply, we'll await the confirmation on the daily time frame however.
The weekly zone has been built up upon a strong resilience zone from the supply zone (note this is a strong supply zone which dates back to 1990/91) , where multiple rejection weeks have occurred and price has been in an accumulation phase since.
Daily
High curve created for the daily supply, and now the buyers have created again a high curve, with this time a marked zone where price can pivot to (subject to confirmation), before price can begin its journey back into the supply, after a strong demand zone which can be brought back to.
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