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Seasonality

You Must Watch Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq-100The chart below shows a simple equation: NASDAQ:SMH / NASDAQ:QQQ to gauge the relative performance of the Semiconductors (SMH) vs. the Nasdaq-100 index (QQQ). The SMH ETF includes companies like NVIDIA and other leading chip manufacturers, which are critical to powering AI advancements. On the other hand, the QQQ ETF comprises 100 major tech-related companies, including giants like Apple and Amazon, along with some semiconductor companies. Although there is some overlap between the two ETFs, this comparison serves as a general gauge of the semiconductors' performance relative to the broader tech sector represented by the Nasdaq-100. Observations on the importance of this comparison: Sector Strength Insight: By analyzing the performance of semiconductors relative to the Nasdaq-100, investors can gauge the strength and potential of the semiconductor sector within the tech industry. Investment Decisions: Understanding these dynamics can inform investment strategies, helping to identify whether to allocate more resources to semiconductor stocks or maintain a broader tech investment. Market Sentiment: The performance ratio can also reflect market sentiment towards different tech subsectors, providing insights into which areas might be overvalued or undervalued. Risk Management: Recognizing extreme levels in the performance ratio can help in risk management, indicating when semiconductor stocks might be overheating relative to the broader tech sector. By keeping an eye on this ratio, investors can better navigate the tech landscape, making more informed decisions about where to focus their investments.
NASDAQ:SMH
by scheplick
Momentum Trading In Agricultural CommoditiesMomentum trading, a strategy as old as the markets themselves, has found fertile ground in the sprawling fields of agricultural commodities. As the seasons change, so do the prices of wheat, corn, soybeans, and other staples, tracing patterns as predictable as the migration of birds or the spring blossom. This paper delves into these seasonal trends, uncovering how they can serve as reliable signals for astute investors looking to harness the power of momentum trading. SEASONAL TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Mint Finance has previously highlighted some of these seasonal trends in Corn and Soybean in detail previously In short, seasonal cycles in crop performance are linked to crop harvest cycles. Pre-harvest, inventory drawdowns tend to drive price higher while post-harvest, a glut of inventory tends to drive prices lower. Corn Corn prices start declining in June following the harvest in China (second largest corn producer) and Brazil (third largest corn producer). Prices reach their lowest in October, coinciding with the harvest in the US. Over the past five years, corn prices have increased in the first half of the year before declining sharply in late June. In 2024, indexed price performance shows prices sharply lagging the seasonal trend as we approach the date on which prices generally declined the last five years. Wheat Wheat seasonality is less pronounced than other agri-commodities due to its relatively global distribution. Still, wheat prices generally rise during the first part of the year before declining in late June as all the major producers - China, Indian, EU, Russia, and US harvest crops during this period. This year, wheat prices started the year off on a bearish note. After bottoming in early-March, prices started to rise sharply peaking in late-May. Mint Finance covered some of the factors behind this rally in a previous paper (Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices Surging). Prices have started to normalize in June, a few weeks before the seasonal price decline generally begins. Soybean Soybean prices generally rise during the first part of the year. In late-June, as the Brazil harvest reaches its peak, prices decline sharply. Prices remain subdued until September when the US crop is harvested. This year, prices have sharply lagged their seasonal performance. Despite the rally in early-May driven by flooding in Brazil, prices remain lower than their level at the start of 2024. Moreover, the rally following the flood-driven rally has retraced a few weeks before the seasonal price decline generally takes place. MOMENTUM TRADING IN AGRICULUTAL COMMODITIES Investors can execute momentum trading strategies by leveraging these seasonal trends. In this context, momentum trading strategy refers to a relatively simple trading strategy where investors either buy or sell a futures contract at the start of the month based on the seasonal price performance during that month. For instance, if seasonal trends show that June generally results in a price decline, the strategy would consist of going short on the commodity at the start of June and closing the position at the end of the month. Although, at face value, this strategy may seem overly simplistic, its return and accuracy are surprisingly high. The simulations are based on a position in the front-month futures, consisting of one contract of the agricultural commodity, opened at the beginning of the month and closed at the end. Corn For Corn, running the momentum trading strategy would have yielded average annual returns of USD 8,500 per year over the past five years (2019-2023). Crucially, performance of this strategy in 2024 is sharply lower as it would yield total PnL of just USD 63 this year. Wheat Similarly, for wheat, this strategy returned an average PnL of 4,650 per year during 2019-2023. So far in 2024, this strategy would have yielded USD 6,600 in wheat futures in 2024. Soybean In Soybean futures, momentum trading would have been the most successful over the past five years. This strategy would have yielded an average of USD 13,600 per year between 2019 and 2023. However, in 2024, this strategy would not have been successful as it would have resulted in a loss of USD 8,700 so far. SUMMARY AND 2024 PERFORMANCE It is clear that although this strategy is successful on a long timeframe, it is not necessarily profitable each month. For instance, the Soybean momentum trading strategy would have resulted in a loss in 2024 while Corn momentum trading strategy would have resulted in flat returns. The reason behind this divergence from seasonal trend is clear when comparing the seasonal price performance charts at the start of the paper. Fundamental factors can result in broad-based trends throughout the year which can skew returns. For instance, as Soybean prices have been declining for most of 2024, a long position would have resulted in a loss regardless of seasonal trends. As such, it is crucial to supplement this strategy using fundamental inputs on what the long-term price trend for the crop is. For a crop which is in a down-cycle, a long position would not make sense and vice versa. In the near-term, all three crop’s prices tend to decline during July based on seasonal trends. However, the outlook for corn is most bearish. The latest WASDE report , suggested that USDA expects global corn production in marketing year 2024-2025 to reach 1,220.5 million metric tons compared to a forecast of 1,219.93 million MT last month. The increase in production comes from forecast for higher output from Ukraine and Zambia more than offsetting the decline in Russia. Moreover, USDA forecasts a season average price of USD 4.4 per bushel which is lower than the current futures price of USD 4.57. Asset managers are also shifting their view on corn prices bearish once again as COT report showed asset managers increasing net short positioning last week. Both fundamental and seasonal factors support a price decline in corn over the next month. However, seasonal trends are not exact. Particularly in 2024, seasonal trends have underperformed their usual returns from the last five years. Investors can opt to use options instead of futures to express the same view of weakening prices. Options provide fixed downside risk and require only an upfront premium, avoiding the need to manage margins as futures prices fluctuate. A long put position in CME corn options expiring on August 23 (ZCU24) can be used to gain downside exposure. CME Corn puts are relatively cheaper compared to calls. Moreover, options IV (measured by the CVOL index) is lower compared to the peaks seen during the same time last year. An options position would benefit from both falling prices and rising IV. Source: CVOL A long put options position on corn futures presents fixed downside of USD 464 (USc 9.29 x 5000/100) and unlimited upside. A strike price of USc 430/bushel represents delta of -0.29. This position would break-even at USc 420/bushel. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
*SMC* DXY correlated with US02Y Bonds As we can see on the daily tf, DXY has created Relative Equal High at 105.459 which translate to this level being a liquidity pool. We are likely to see 105.459 being taken out put where can it go? As we can see, above 105.459, the closer PDArray is the OrderBlock (made the 30 Apr) which confluate with the 75% of the Dealing Range and another buyside liquidity pool at 105.742. I dont expect DXY to trade above the mean threshold of the OrderBlock and if it touched I expect a strong reaction to the downside. Concerning the 02 year Bonds , the body has respected the OrderBlock (30 Apr) creating relative equal low which has been taken out (june 12). There is a ''crack'' in correlation right now between the DXY and the major Bonds of the US which leads me to think that there is a higher probability for the DXY to follow the Bound and drop lower. Fundamentally, Powell has been pointing out the progress that has been made (which could eventually lead to a cut of rates) However, the ''Dot Plot' ' surprised the market of a likely to only 1 cut this year instead of 2-3 rate cut priced-in, which could be the reason why DXY has been going higher the last couple of days.
TVC:US02Y
by ezod
2
Bitcoin and the end of the bull cycle!At this moment, many might start reading this article thinking that the bull cycle is over, but that’s not the reason I’m writing. My intention here is to provide you with advance notice of the temporal zones where you should seriously consider realizing profits from your hold portfolios and even be prepared to look at selling in the market. In the last cycles, this pattern has repeated, allowing us to replicate the projections. In the first cycle back in 2012, after marking the bottom and the Halving, the price moved parabolically in two structures: the first, marked in aqua green, represents the post-Halving effect; the second, in red, represents the full euphoria effect. This behavior repeated in the 2016 cycle and also in the 2019 cycle: What’s most interesting is that, in all cases, the time between the market bottom and the Halving is exactly the same as the time between the Halving and the market top. This is what I want to share with you: the points where the temporal zone suggests a possible inflection of movement or phase change. This shows us that until mid-March 2025, we will be experiencing the post-Halving phase, and after this phase, we will enter the euphoria zone. The possible inflection point of the cycle should occur around mid-September 2025. This study is based on analyzing the Fibonacci temporal zone and projecting the cycle based on symmetrical time behaviors from the past. This is not a guarantee that we will follow the exact same trajectory, but rather an additional basis for you to measure your exposure time to the cycle.
BNC:BLX
by leandrosander_
Chainlink investment technicalsThe cycle low consolidation located atop the golden ratio of the primary cycle indicates a new cycle, after a similar pattern to last (2018-2019) The new cycle is on track with last (2019-2020) with a potential for breakout indicated by market structure.. Bitcoin is coming to 60% of the market, meanwhile massive altcoins stay at relatively lower market capitalization relative to bitcoin. (keep in mind bitcoin is at ATH now and above important moving averages)
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by accumulationdistribution
2
BTC ready to make New ATH! or was it the top?Everyone is afraid to buy when it's red. ●At current btc is trading at 66.8k. ●We have Daily Breaker block to support from here and give us a nice bounce towards ATH. ●in my opinion maximum BTC can go to that Daily FVG which is just below the Breaker Block. ●Alts coins are bleeding and its the best opportunity to fill your bags at CMP and DCA once you see more Dips. ●Every Coin is in oversold area in 4h and Daily timeframe. ●So it's another buying opportunity. ●Tomorrow is very important because we have FOMC,CPI which will act as a catalyst to make it pump from here or down we go at 63k. ●Buy when it's red and sell when it's green simple. ●Never sell in panic or buy in fomo
Long
by Camouflage89
2
Bitcoin not due yet to go into full degen bull market modeIf history repeats itself - and so far history has repeated itself for Bitcoin every 4 years, we have not seen the true face of the Bitcoin bull market yet. Let's have a closer look at where and when things could really go ballistic to the upside by analysing its so-called logarithmic regression: You will see 3 different areas of importance on this chart: 1. A purple line showing the current "fair" price of Bitcoin according to the regression 2. A green channel marking the price area where Bitcoin should spend most of its time 3. A red channel marking the projected blow off tops for each bull run The pattern we usually see is that after a top somewhere within the red channel Bitcoin eventually falls back to the green channel (and sometimes below it) to then settle roughly around the purple line at the time of the halvings. What do these findings tell us about the current state of the bull market? Let's look at the price behaviour after the halving of 2016 and 2020.... It took Bitcoin around 300 days after the 2016 halving and 220 days after the 2020 halving to finally breach the green channel to the upside and go into, what I call, full degen frenzy bull market mode. This is the area between the green and red channel, where prices go ballistic and influencers on social media will talk about the how everything will be different this time and how everything is only going up from now on. As you can see Bitcoin currently is still quite far away from leaving the green channel to the upside. In fact if it would go into full frenzy bull market mode right now we would need to see prices well above 90,000 USD. If history repeats itself again and we can expect the price to leave the green channel to the north sometime 220 to 300 days after the halving. That would be sometime between November 2024 and February 2025 - the top of the green channel will then be around 100,000 USD. Price will then probably rise rather quickly to the red channel again where it will eventually top out and, once again, enter a bear market. Top prices should be somewhere between 200,000 USD and 300,000 USD in 2025. It is then time to get out of the market and go into hibernation once again to come back once the lower green band of the logarithmic regression is reached. The good news is....with prices currently around 67,500 USD there is still plenty of money to earn even until reaching the phase where the price of Bitcoin will really go ballistic. The bad news is... most people will be left behind and will probably fomo into Bitcoin (or the worse alternative: Altcoins) at prices between 150,000 USD and 200,000 USD. This, of course, is just my own opinion and no financial advise!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoForMoney
3
HATSUN AGRO - FMCG diversification IdeaHere are a few interesting things about chart and company: 1) It took 3 years for this chart to reclaim the 2017 high, and then stock rallied up to 2x and more from the previous high 2) On a monthly closing basis, it fell around 50% after 2017 before making a new high. If we consider all prices, then 60% Now, post September 21 (Stock price - 1400-1500), the stock has shown a maximum fall of 47% (43% closing) and recovered. Meanwhile, the institutional holdings have been going up. The number of total shareholders of this company is 25,000 (Screener.in), which indicates there's no sign of overownership in this idea. Considering the agriculture sector and possibly the populist budget of the upcoming coalition government, this stock might rally quickly and have the potential to give high returns in the short term. However, valuations are not cheap, so one has to consider investing in a staggered (3-5 phases) way and with a horizon of 6-18 months.
NSE:HATSUNLong
by LokeshSurana
ETHUSD SHORT - RISK ENTRY - END OF ETHEREUM STRENGTH FOR NOW?Hi again people. I am projecting the crypto to be weak this week, especially Ethereum. The whole pump from ETF expecetations from 3200 to 3900 should be corrected relatively quickly, we had similar situation with BTC & ETF. With slightly more Short positions on CME for both BTC and ETH, I am expecting an Ethereum panic this week. The entry now, and especially my SL is risky one - who knows if the market doesn't decide to take buy side liquidity first, but to be honest I smell weakness and I decided to give it a try. SL for me now: 3863. Safe SL: 4200. Target: 3200. Good luck and play safe!
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by AdiVV
1
Bitcoin in a healthier position to move higher!The first push of BTC to over $70K in this bull cycle, the risk was becoming overheated quickly. The BTI indicator risk was around 7 to 7.25 and some indicators (e.g., the NUPL) were getting close to triggering. Now the overall risk is at a much healthier 5.59. Continued chop in this area will help further reset the individual BTI top indicators, but ultimately, we are poised to move higher. We have never reached a cycle top for BTC without the risk going to at least 10.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Da_Prof
4
Gold Rush - Yes or no? Around two weeks ago, gold reached a new all-time high, 2450.2$, just above the last high of 2,431.6$. However, the bulls were unable to maintain this high level over the course of the day. In the following trading days, the gold price fell sharply, losing a bit more than 100$. There has been a weak recovery over the last few days, with renewed selling pressure emerging in the middle of the week. A new low was reached on Thursday, albeit with a bullish reversal. Chart facts: - Resistance zone or possible double top around the 2,430$ level - EMA50 in the daily chart successfully tested on Thursday - Bullish reversal candle on Thursday - Massive support at around 2,300$ Outlook Thursday's reversal candle is now the perfect template for the ‘Friday Gold Rush Strategy’. Such a bullish daily candle has already led to strong gains on Fridays. A recovery to USD 2,370-2,380$ is well on the cards. From a buyer's persepctive, a daily close above USD 2,380$ would fit into the picture, which still looks bullish. Good luck out there, Bernd Senkowski
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
USO is in a sweet spot on its chart LONGUSO while the middle east, the Houthi rebels and the Suez Canal shipping quagmire affect oil liquidity globally and prices at the pump continue to be volatile the federal government seeks contracts to restore the national strategic reserves depleted in the last supply demand challenge while the presidential and congressional election cycle starts warming up. On the weekly chart, USO has just crossed over the long term anchored mean VWAP line as well as the POC line of the volume profile. This is a bullish momentum move. Price is situated in the middle of the high volume area showing expectations of decent trading volume and liquidity. I see this as an opportunity to take long trades in oil or anything oil related. CVX is on sale after a drop after the morning open. i will look at oilfield services stocks, big oil and oil futures.
AMEX:USOLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
🚨ALTSeason Alert🚨: Why It's Imminent ??The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with anticipation as many analysts and traders believe an altseason is on the horizon. Altseasons are periods in the market cycle when altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) outperform Bitcoin (BTC), the leading digital asset. Several factors suggest that an altseason could be imminent, and this article will explore these indicators and highlight promising altcoins to watch. Altseason Index Signaling a Shift: The Altseason Index, a metric that tracks the relative performance of altcoins against Bitcoin, currently indicates a Bitcoin dominance-led market. However, the index is approaching a critical inflection point where it could break below its trendline, signaling a potential altseason. Bitcoin Dominance Poised for a Breakout: Bitcoin's dominance, which represents its share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, has been trading within an ascending wedge pattern. This pattern suggests a potential breakout, with a downward move indicating a shift of power towards altcoins. A decline in dominance below 40% is often considered a hallmark of an altseason. Bitcoin dominance chart showing an ascending wedge pattern Ethereum (ETH) Gaining Strength: The ETH/BTC price ratio, which measures the relative performance of Ethereum (ETH) against Bitcoin, has been on an upward trend. This trend suggests that ETH is gaining strength relative to BTC, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment towards altcoins. ETH/BTC price ratio chart showing an uptrend WIF (WazirX India Token) Poised for a Breakout: WIF, a cryptocurrency native to the WazirX exchange platform, has been forming a massive ascending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe. This pattern suggests a potential breakout towards $10, making WIF a promising altcoin to watch for the upcoming altseason. WIF/USDT chart showing an ascending triangle pattern Additional Factors Supporting an Altseason: Increased Institutional Interest in Altcoins: Institutional investors are showing growing interest in altcoins, as evidenced by rising investment inflows and the launch of altcoin-focused products. Strong Fundamentals of Many Altcoins: Numerous altcoins have strong underlying fundamentals, innovative use cases, and active developer communities, making them attractive investment opportunities. Market Sentiment Favoring Riskier Assets: The overall market sentiment is shifting towards riskier assets, which could benefit altcoins as investors seek higher potential returns. Conclusion: While the exact timing of an altseason cannot be predicted with certainty, the confluence of several indicators suggests that it is imminent. Altcoins like WIF, with strong technical patterns and solid fundamentals, are poised to make significant gains during this altseason. However, it is crucial to exercise caution and conduct thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
Swiss Franc Long IdeaA potential Long opportunity in Swiss Franc. The "Swissie" has tended to make a seasonal bottom in May and is currently bouncing of support (demand) on the weekly chart. The 4H chart then appears to show a potential accumulation schematic. The breakout above the range aligns with our bullish, seasonal bias as mentioned above. We are monitoring to initiate a long position if price pulls back into the range below 1.106. This would be a test of the schematic. If price trades below the Spring at 1.090, the idea is invalidated.
CME:6S1!Long
by DaXing
BTC in huge bullish flag, when the breakout?Hello traderz! Happy to see you at the new trading week. Didn't post previous week, cause the BTC still moving in the same bullish flag. What is my thoughts and when we going to break it? End of the week we entering new month and, according to previous movements, we can see some growth middle of June and after again the correction till September cause summer is not really active for crypto even in bull run. Plus we still have descending volumes. Bullish signals: 1) Golden cross 2) Time cycles 3) Flag breakout (if will happen, can move SL) Doubts (or why to be careful): 1) Descending volumes 2) Weak market reaction 3) Summer season So I think we can long BTC from support line at around ~ 63.000$-65.000$ and I will suggest not to be greedy, take 30-50% with 10x leverage and close position. What's your thoughts?)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by SheTradesHub