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Seasonality

Fork in the road... SPX EquitiesGeneral historic trends show printer money injection as a stimulant of equity valuations, with historic possibilities of repeating as well as a none money injection paths shown below. Whilst i enjoy a bullish market over many chart observations we have to conclude a retest of lower support before we plan to go higher. If market is left to its own devices it will flush bad debt out of the economy causing a large correction but a healthy stable recovery after the fire.
AMEX:SPY
by SuperScholarXYZ
NVDA - Still Bullish, But Major Potential Sell Signal LoomingThis week in NVDA I am paying attention to the following: -On the monthly timeframe, we see that there is a significant bearish divergence setup forming. This has not yet triggered, though, so the bulls can relax (for now). However, in 7 days when the Monthly candle closes, we need to pay close attention to the CCI divergence. If it confirms, it implies a MAJOR bearish correction for NVDA is on the horizon. -But in the meantime, everything is all systems go for the bulls. If you trade based on the Monthly, any pullbacks into the $88 region (Monthly MAC low) would be satisfactory spots to look for Buy triggers on the Daily timeframe. The Williams Acc/Dis is positioned well above its 57 period MA, which means we should look to buy any pullbacks into the low of the MAC. -Weekly analysis also implies all is good for the bulls. I will look for Buy triggers on the 6H chart if price pulls back into the $107 region (Weekly MAC low). -For fun, I throw some cyclical analysis into the mix. We see that NVDA has a strong seasonal cycle for an upmove from early October into November. Thank you for reading. Enjoy your week.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Tradius_Trades
10
Apple - High & Intermediate Term AnalysisToday, we look at Apple utilizing a variety of techniques: Divergence, MAC & Cycles. We need to keep an eye on the quarterly, monthly & weekly bearish divergences that are occurring. They have not yet triggered, so bulls don't have to worry (yet). But we must keep our eyes on these divergences, because if they trigger, they imply significant downside ahead for Apples share value. We take a look at the MAC and see that there is a case to be made for some further upside this week, and based on todays state of the indicators, longs are favored on any pullbacks to the MAC on the Daily chart. Cycles show a bit of a mixed bag of possibilities. I'm most interested in the Decennial pattern and the APZ's. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tradius_Trades
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy. So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs? It turns out, they do. Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now. The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX. The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
ICEUS:DXZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
BITCOIN BULLMARKET📊 In technical analysis, the most important time frame is always the highest one. For Bitcoin, it’s the yearly time frame. 🔴 Historically, after a red yearly candle, Bitcoin follows with three green ones. Don’t be swayed by macroeconomic fears or geopolitical conflicts. 🚀 The Bitcoin bull market is here, ticking like a time bomb. Any moment, it could explode, and the crypto market will follow. 🎯 Protect your capital, invest with a solid entry/exit plan, and manage risk wisely. Success comes from discipline and executing your plan to the letter.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Jaytradermb
COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short). COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
1
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching). OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish. Spread: Bearishly diverging. ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity. Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks) Target #1 = $24.85 Target #2 = $26.00 Target #3 = $28.00+ A stop exists below $20.00.
AMEX:HIBSLong
by WorthlessViews
Oracle ($ORCL) Gap-Fill & Earning Jump PlayTheory : Oracle has a history of significant price gaps after earnings reports. The stock is currently trading within an ascending channel and has an open gap from the last earnings. I expect a pullback to close this gap before the next earnings report triggers a potential upward gap. Ideal Entry Point : 142.51 - 144.97 USD (after the gap fills and the price hits channel support). Profit Taker : Targeting 192.27-195.02 USD (2 weeks range after earnings report), aligning with the top of the ascending channel and historical earnings reactions. This move represents a potential 35%+ gain. Disclaimer : This idea is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a professional, and you should do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by elka_graph
3
Comparison: $TSLA and $PLTR S&P 500 InclusionComparison: NASDAQ:TSLA and NYSE:PLTR S&P 500 Inclusion Palantir Technologies is set to join the S&P 500 on September 23, 2024 This milestone mirrors Tesla's inclusion in the index back on December 21, 2020 - Tesla's Journey: Prior to its S&P 500 inclusion, Tesla's stock experienced a significant upward trend, which continued for several weeks post-inclusion before entering a prolonged period of sideways consolidation for almost a year (chart above) - Palantir's Path: Interestingly, Palantir's stock price trajectory in the months leading up to its S&P 500 inclusion shows striking similarities to Tesla's pre-inclusion performance (chart below) Do you think that Palantir will behave similarly to Tesla after the inclusion? i.e.: - Short-term: Further upward trend in the immediate weeks following its inclusion - Long-term: A possible sideways consolidation, akin to Tesla's post-inclusion phase
P
by OfficerDonut
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached 60K$!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for buying positions after Bitcoin corrects to the specified demand zone Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk Off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Sales from the specified supply zone will be rewarded with appropriate risk It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
Which Presidential Term Year is the Most Profitable?An intriguing question from a recent client call led me to dive into the data. Here's what I uncovered about the relationship between presidential term years and stock market returns. The Analysis Data: Historical SPX (S&P 500) returns Grouping: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of presidential terms Visualization: Each line represents returns for a specific term year Color Key 1st year: Red 2nd year: Orange 3rd year: Green 4th year: Yellow Total SPX: White Combined 1st + 3rd years: Purple Key Findings The Winner: 3rd Year The third year of presidential terms significantly outperforms others, beating 2nd and 4th years by a notable margin. Runner-up: 1st Year Surprisingly, the first year takes second place. Perhaps the optimism surrounding a new presidency plays a role? Underperformers: 2nd and 4th Years 2nd years appear relatively uneventful. 4th years (election years) show more volatility, likely due to electoral uncertainty. Combined Power of 1st and 3rd Years The purple line (1st + 3rd years combined) closely tracks the total SPX return (white line), suggesting these two years drive a significant portion of overall market gains. Important Notes Not every year within each category showed positive returns. The analysis reveals average trends, not guarantees for future performance. Food for Thought How might this insight influence long-term investment strategies? What factors could explain the 3rd year's outperformance? Does this pattern hold true across different economic cycles or administrations? What's your take on this analysis? Does it shift your perspective on market cycles or political terms?
SP:SPX
by marketscripters
Crypto Alternatives Reaching Extremes Please study and look back on the history of CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D This trendline has acted as major support with each touch marking key reversal points of alts before moves higher or at the very least moving away from their lows. Light blue is CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS with the grey boxes marking the touch points and the yellow vertical lines being the BTC halving dates. I believe we are here in the cycle with regards to alts and BTC: Last cycle we had a shorter bottom base and accumulation period followed by a longer consolidation period before the halving. This time around we see longer bottom base and somewhat shorter consolidation period these past 5 months. The white dashed line marks the mid line of the bottom base and then price recovering back into the high liquidity/ consolidation zone. And it just so happens that we're in a better setup this time around than last cycle imo. Super HTF head and shoulders: 2019: 2024: Current BTC outlook: IMO any bids of strong alts or only the majors in this 1.5T to 2T zone is a great entry. You can see I included the google trend plot for the search "bitcoin" which is good gauge of sentiment, interest, and tops/ bottoms. Buy when no one is talking about it or cares. Sell when interest peaks and everyone is talking about it. A lot left in this cycle IMO but it will take some time for things to play out.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by bhx10
1