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Seasonality

When the altseason begins?After the recent falls, the 55%-54% range is the key support. When this level is reached, there is a chance that the price will start to rise again to hit those who took the risk and invested all their funds during the last two falls. This is where we plan to increase our positions with the remaining free liquidity. Should the dominance steadily strengthen below this zone, it will serve as a significant positive indicator for the start of the altseason. Even with current positions, by the end of the season the yields could be quite amazing.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by TSFC
2
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy CostsIt is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations. Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is positive given South American supply uncertainty and gasoline linked demand spike. Corn prices face downside risk from ample supply in the near term. Prices have the potential to spike during later part of the year due to supply uncertainty and higher consumption. Traders can deploy a calendar spread in CME Corn futures comprising of a short September 2024 Corn Futures (ZSU2024) and a long March 2025 Corn Futures (ZSH2025) to gain from shifting dynamics. RECORD US CROP WILL SUPPRESS NEAR TERM CORN PRICE The US produced a record 389.69 million MT of corn last year as per latest USDA figures. Massive production is a result of record high yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. Globally, corn production in the current marketing year is expected to reach a record 1,227 million MT, due to the US crop last year. Higher supply is expected to lead to a buildup in ending stocks. Stocks are expected to increase from 302.19 million MT to 318.28 million MT. This represents a buildup of almost 16 million MT. Ample supplies are a headwind to near term corn prices. USDA ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC Global corn production forecasts by USDA may be too optimistic. Upcoming harvests from Brazil and Argentina may spring surprises to the downside. USDA’s forecast for the Brazil corn crop is currently at 124 million MT. Brazil’s national agricultural agency - CONAB - puts the harvest at 110.9 million MT as per their latest crop survey . The difference stems from USDA’s assumption of higher planted area. CONAB recently cut its estimate for planted area pointing to lower crop prices dissuading farmers from planting corn. Planting in Brazil is delayed from its usual schedule. USDA is also optimistic about the Argentinian crop. It reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 1 million MT to 55 million MT in the latest WASDE report. However, that is still optimistic given the ongoing spread of spiroplasma disease. Last week, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed corn estimates to just 50.5 million MT from a previous forecast of 57 million MT citing crop loss linked with diseases. USDA estimates are 18 million MT higher than harvest forecasted by regional agencies across Brazil & Argentina. Corn supplies may end up being much tighter than the USDA is currently forecasting if harvests come softer than anticipated. ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE CORN CONSUMPTION USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by twenty-five million bushels (635k MT) in the latest WASDE report. With gasoline and crude prices on a tear, ethanol blending into gasoline is likely to remain elevated during the coming months driving corn demand. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) serves as another source of corn demand in 2024. The Biden Administration is set to release its primary climate model for SAF subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act in the “very near future”. While recent reports have stated that the model may be restrictive compared to corn-ethanol industry expectations, the subsidies will undoubtedly drive higher demand for corn-ethanol. CORN FUTURES CONTANGO IS STEEPENING Corn Futures term structure has become noticeably steeper over the past three months. Premium for dated contracts have increased. Specifically, corn delivery in later part of 2024 and early 2025 command higher premium. MARKET METRICS ARE TURNING LESS BEARISH FOR CORN CME Corn Options positions are currently skewed bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Over the past week, bullish positioning has increased with large call option buildup on June (OZCN4) and December contracts (OZCZ4). Asset managers have also started to reduce net short positioning on CME Corn Futures since positioning reached its all-time low mid-February. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP South America corn supply remains uncertain even as the US delivers a record harvest. Corn prices will remain bearish in the near term amid ample supplies. Longer term, supply shocks and rising demand has the potential to send corn prices higher. This is evident from steepening contango in CME Corn Futures. To express the view on corn prices increasing towards the end of the year, traders can establish a calendar spread comprising of short position in September 2024 futures (ZCU2024) and a long position in March 2025 futures (ZCH2025). CME corn futures offer deep liquidity even for contracts in 2025 allowing such calendar spreads to be executed efficiently. A hypothetical trade setup comprising of the calendar spread consisting of short ZCU2024 and long ZCH2025 also offers margin benefits. The calendar spread position is margin efficient with the entire position requiring margin of just USD 350 as of 15/April/2024. This position not only benefits from the supply trend but also the seasonal trend in corn prices. Corn prices tend to rise from October through February due to seasonal factors. Between April to September, prices tend to decline. This hypothetical spread is supported by both trends. • Entry: 1.06185 (ZCH2025/ZCU2024 = 485/456.75 as of 12/April) • Target: 1.076 • Stop Loss: 1.052 • Profit at Target: USD 323 (Target price = 1.33% higher than Entry => Profit = 1.33% x notional = 1.33% x (485 x Contract Size) = 1.33% x (485 x 5000/100)) • Loss at Stop Loss: USD 225 (Stop level = 0.93% below entry => Loss = 0.93% x notional) • Reward to Risk: 1.44x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZCH2025
by mintdotfinance
8
Gold to target previous month lowsJanuary as a month was a bag of choppy price action (maybe long term consolidaton, who knows) as it traded within the range of December high and low. Same being the case with DXY, only difference DXY showcased aggressive behaviour to trade higher, after it found support on 100.6. Beginning Feb, DXY has taken out liquidity from January and December Highs. Factors influencing this move is based on - Fed decision to keep the same rates - It's evident Fed is would like to observe the Q1 data before the rates can be lowered, by April it should be clear when to expect Fed to lower the rates, or still keep it unchanged. - Positive news for DXY late January/Early Feb. Fed's decision to keep the same rates may not have strengthed Dollar, but it did not weaken it as well, and now with new highs forming, the bullishness in DXY might target HH. Suppported by bond yield which are targeting higher yields as well. On the other side, gold is still within the range of December and January, still to break either low or highs. But with DXY's move to trade higher, Gold must feel the pressure to trade lower and target liquidity at monthly lows.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Spyda_Morpheus
Strategic Trading Tips Before the Bitcoin HalvingAs the market faces economic challenges, Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P ) and the S&P 500 ( TVC:SPX ) are showing signs of a potential correction after significant recent gains over the last 12 months. This shift is prompting investors to reassess and strategically reallocate their assets. In this environment, PAX Gold ( BYBIT:PAXGUSDT.P ), a digital asset backed by gold, is emerging as an increasingly attractive investment option due to its stability during uncertain times. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar ( TVC:DXY ) is indicating a shift towards more stable assets, reflecting a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market. Strategic Recommendations for Bybit Traders Add PAXGUSDT to Your Portfolio: Leveraging the stability of gold-backed assets such as PAXG can provide a hedge against the volatility observed in both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. Reduce Altcoin Exposure: Reducing your altcoin holdings can help mitigate risk, especially considering their tendency to experience amplified downward movements during Bitcoin corrections. However, for those comfortable with risk, there may be an opportunity to buy in at lower prices, potentially yielding significant gains if the market rebounds. Buy BTC at Support Levels: Considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which may mitigate some of the potential downtrends by reducing the supply of new coins, buying BTC at current lower levels could be advantageous if the price increases post-halving. Leverage USD Strength: With the US dollar growing stronger, it’s strategic to maintain or increase your cash positions. This could involve making new deposits, taking profits, or utilizing Bybit Earn products to take advantage of market changes. Consider Options: Instead of just holding spot or trading perpetual contracts, also consider trading options to manage risk while benefiting from market exposure. Reassess Risk of Existing Positions: If you're holding underwater leveraged positions, it may be a good time to reassess your overall risk and adjust your position size or margin accordingly to better withstand any potential further downward movements until a reversal occurs. These strategies are designed to balance risk management with the potential for returns, adapting to a market that is increasingly shifting towards more conservative investment approaches. Remember, trading cryptocurrencies, especially with leverage, carries significant risks. Employ solid risk management practices to protect your investments.
by Bybit
1
Bitcoin distance from BMS 👀 #Bitcoin distance from Bull Market Support Band As I said all last month, the mark of 74k was our local peak, you can even tell a mid-cycle peak. 📝The geopolitical upheaval was just the last drop of what was supposed to happen. Taking into account the other earlier mentioned facts soon, I do not expect new maximums to be taken, I think it will happen in a few months. 💡Against this background, there are now quite a lot of good opportunities with altcoins, many projects we just recorded tenfold profits and now there will be an opportunity again to get new projects that are currently attractive for investment in the green zone.🚀
BNC:BLXShort
by FeelsStrategy
BTC vs GOLD#Gold / CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Digital Gold) correlation 🪙 Recently, we have seen a record-strong positive correlation. This is visible in the Spearman correlation, there are much more green bars in the 2-month period. Both of these assets play the role of a defensive asset🛡️ 💡Why is gold growing? The main reasons are geopolitical instability, macroeconomics, and the growth of gold purchases by some countries with large economies, which decided to reduce dependence on US government bonds.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FeelsStrategy
BTC before and after HalvingBTC before and after Halving BTC has currently broken through the trendline and supply H4 It is likely that before Halving BTC will increase another 10 thousand to create Fomo for the Halving event, then it is predicted that there will be a profit-taking phase near the hour of halving to create liquidity for leveraged and short-term transactions. My first goal is 90 thousand like this idea. When I break through 90 thousand x I will come back Good Lucky!
Long
by EricGoldHunter
2
BTC BearishOpen Interest - Rising and Above Seasonal Average and at ATH resistant level Indicating losing bullish momentum. COT Data: 6 month - 12month Range showing commercials are net short. Price Structure: Daily Timeframe shows bullish however the daily range has been expanded from 38K with no sell stops being taken out. March Monthly Candle created new high. Entering new month April indicates a possible correction is under way. If 64K level is broken awaiting to buy between 50K-55K in the area of FVG and bullish OB with LTF confirmation.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Saltpepperwhiteboard
1
OIL HIGHER ! Geopolitical issue + Eid MubarakHi Everyone, OIL higher . target is 90. but maybe tonight is making new high on before or after news. (please dont risk more than 2% in trade) watch your risk management. Good Luck. i try to always we will keep you all updated . Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support me, i really appreciate you support ! Goodluck i'll help you to have a great trade. Please using good money management. dont take any emotional trade. Note: Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market Wish good luck for all people. Please help support me by Clicking like button, and if you like my ideas please follow me and support me. i Relly Appreciate it! i'll make more and more great analysis if this chanel grows. on Gold, eurusd, gbpusd and oil specially. what do you think? please comment and rate below. Thankyou.
TVC:USOILLong
by LaurentWilvyne
1
Here is intraday swing forecast for GOLD, heading towards 2300As we expected in 2023, we know any limited supply commodities will lead to an All Time High caused by FEDs monetary policy When we combine with Gann Method on how he predict everything, we know it will really happens for sure. Now we can see that GOLD and BTC will reach All Time High as soon as possible Watch the time and date we have mentioned in the analysis, time will control as swing reversal while price will control market behavior. While yellow line in Gann Fan act as fair value slope, so price will be back on that yellow line before it change its direction
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Chartwatcher1996
SPY's Wedge and DivergencesThe S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) as tracked by the most liquid ETF AMEX:SPY , has continued in a wedge pattern since the lows from late October 2023. This wedge has been steep and risen quite dramatically. Bulls will not want to see this break, but given that it's an election year, would the break just be a consolidation with one more high? These are issues everyone is likely considering. The series of negative (or bearish) divergences could continue, as anything is possible in markets. But it shouldn't be ignored either. The Supplemental Chart below shows the series of lower highs on RSI, using SPY's daily time frame. One final note of caution. This wedge pattern technically (no pun intended) hasn't broken yet. Nor has its 21-day EMA. A break would help bears, at least short-term ones, see more downside or consolidation. GammaLabs, who this channel follows, mentioned in its briefing today that CTAs remain max long still and may become "systematic sellers" below 4900 SPX. So more downside is needed for bears to gain traction. The technical conditions for consolidation are ripe, though, with the wedge and divergences shown. But confirmation remains needed. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPY
by SquishTrade
2
NAIL a homebuilding leveraged ETF rising from support LONGNAIL on a 14 minute chart tested the support at the rising trendline confluent with the mean anchored VWAP and has bounced and crossed over the latter. Relative strength lines are crossing over the 50 level and the relative volume is showing a gradual rise. This is the beginning of homebuilding season after all. Mortgage rates might be getting a cut. I will take a long trade here expecting a swing trade for a few months. Targets are on the chart. They are based on the resistance rising trendline as well as the upper VWAP bands.
AMEX:NAILLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Could XRP hit $100? Charts hint at a Big moveA simple analysis of Ripple (XRP) charts reveals a rising potential for this cryptocurrency. While we cannot predict the future with certainty, cyclicity and indicators certainly suggest a significant price increase is on the horizon. The XRP can hit a much higher price point, possibly exceeding $50. 💰 DON'T FORGET , popularity matters too! XRP is currently holding strong at number 6 on CoinMarketCap ...or are The Simpsons's creator fingers in this? 😃 Share your thoughts about Ripple's future! 🤔 (Not Financial Advice)
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by patriq8
47