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Where is the bottom for soybeans? Soybean futures are off to a rough start in 2024. In the first week of trading, March soybeans were down nearly 42 cents on the back of beneficial rains sweeping Central Brazil. Selling pressure permeated into Monday’s session as well, with soybeans trading down into the mid 1230’s. So, the question now becomes, will March soybeans make new contract lows? Fundamental Snapshot : Monday’s lower price action is not all that surprising considering U.S. export inspections for soybeans were reported at 675k metric tons - below average trade estimates. Meanwhile, Brazil has been exporting both corn and soybeans at record paces each of the past two years, and is expected to have a record or near-record soybean crop this year as well. Wednesday, CONAB will release data pertaining to their estimations of corn and soybeans. Currently, they are less optimistic about the state of the Brazilian soybean crop than the USDA, and USDA will release their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations report on Friday. If we see sweeping downward adjustments to production estimates from both CONAB and USDA, it may help soybeans find a bottom. However, if the market is disappointed in the data released this week, we may see soybeans test 1200 sooner rather than later. Technical Outlook : After last week’s precipitous drop, it was surprising that March beans failed to enter oversold territory. However, it did not take long to break into OS territory on Monday’s session. The head-and-shoulders pattern that’s developed over the past fiscal quarter has a difference of approximately $1.20/bu, which puts an operative price target between 1198 and 1208. That also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level between the mid-June lows and late-July highs. Markets can stay in overbought/oversold territory for extended periods of time, so if data disappoints this week, we may see the head-and-shoulders reach its price target. However, a positive reception to fundamental data this week may serve as a launching pad for soybeans to start moving higher. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
GME 50 EMA DefenseGME came alive in December and is currently retracing back to the 50 EMA. Things to consider, volume has been drying up since the initial move in late November, $15.41 is a strong level of support, but below that there's the gap all the way down to $13.55. January is usually a great month for this stock, but I'd love to see it defend the 50 EMA and the $15.41 level before going long. A bounce off support and a reclaim of the 50 EMA would be very bullish in my opinion
NYSE:GMELong
by SWRLS
2
All Time Highs Is Coming !Firstly, based on todays data we are seeing an uptick in the jobless claims, which basically means the FED has done enough to cool off the economy. So no further rate hikes are expected. Thus initializing the much expected year end rally. Secondly, by looking at the technicals using Elliot Wave it hints that the correction for the wave 4 is over and expect this to hit ATHs by year end. Boost the idea with your likes Not a Financial Advice, Do your own research
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SabahEquityResearch
32
XPT/USD - Platinum OZ/USD - Retest & Break Out IdeaI would like to share my thoughts with you. The Idea is that after Head Shoulder Formation is now the Retest of SHS and confirmation of break out. That idea is supported by the seasonality of Platinum. I think its possible to reach minimum Target1 if Platinum is not overbought then its also possible to reach target 2 untill 21 th February. After 21th February I think we will see a correction. Thx we'll see wish u all the best
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by sebastianmichalsky91
1
AUD USD - Fresh supply in play, awaiting the PCPG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed Monthly Weekly Daily Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
by LupaCapital
Bitcoin Halving's Impact AnalysisBitcoin Halving Cycles Performance (Pre/Post 1 year performance) Halving's Pre/Post year Performance: 1. 26th Nov 2012 - Pre 416% / Post 7715% 2. 9th July 2016 - Pre 110% / Post 283% (The full move including after the 24 month period was c.955%) 3. 11th May 2020 - Pre 76% / Post 423% 4. 27th April 2024 - Pre 50% / Post 200% Pre Summary (from H2) - 110% - 76% - 50% prediction (reducing by c.25% each halving). Post Summary (from H2) - 955% - 423% - 200% prediction (reduces by c. 50% each halving) You can see the pattern in the reduced returns in each halving. The pre halving returns typically reduce by 25% a halving and the post halving returns reduce by 100% per halving. We ignore the first having as it was exponential introductory growth of the asset. Important Dates are 27th April 2024 (halving date). Good place to skim or wait for a pullback). Also the date of 25th April 2025. This is a softer date, a take profit early date potentially, most cycles have ended in Q4 of the given year thus some chips should be left on the table post April 2025 depending on the continued performance up to that point. Always a pleasure, I hope its been insightful Puka
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by PukaCharts
6
Raising Liquidity in ChinaChina pumped the most liquidity into its financial system via short-term policy loans on record, a sign policymakers are likely to keep interest rates low to bolster a nascent economic recovery. The People’s Bank of China granted lenders a net 733 billion yuan ($100 billion) of cash with so-called reverse repurchase contracts on Friday. Only a few days after the central bank made the largest injection of one-year policy loans on Monday. The injection of extra cash into the economy give a much-needed boost to China’s growth, which has been challenged by a lack of demand and a downturn in the property market this year. It will also provide lenders with sufficient funding, as Beijing and local governments are set to sell more bonds to finance stimulus spending and as the tax payment season approaches. Thus, this wealth effect will trickle down into risk assets (especially crypto) as interest rates continue to decline, alongside this. As it can also be deduced that Beijing likes to frontload Liquidity in the early months of the year. Thus Crypto is long
ECONOMICS:CNINTRLong
by BackQuant
1
Cad/Jpy bounce backTrade Idea for CADJPY Bias: Very Bullish Overall Score: 9 Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: 3 Institutional traders are showing a robust bullish sentiment towards CADJPY, indicating a forecast of continued upside. Retail Sentiment: 1 Retail traders appear to be bearish on CADJPY. Given the tendency for retail traders to often be on the losing side, their bearish sentiment serves as a contrarian bullish signal for us, supporting our bullish view. Seasonality: 1 Current seasonal trends favor a bullish momentum for CADJPY. Trend Reading: 2 CADJPY is on an upward trajectory, further underscoring the bullish momentum. GDP Growth: -1 A slight negative in GDP growth, but the dominant bullish indicators more than compensate for this. Inflation: 2 Inflation metrics are aligning favorably, adding to the bullish outlook. Unemployment: 0 Unemployment figures are neutral and do not sway our primary bullish perspective. Interest Rates: 1 Interest rate dynamics are pointing to CADJPY strength. Additional Factor: Increasing Oil Prices Canada's role as a major oil exporter means rising oil prices often buoy the CAD. This backdrop solidifies our bullish stance on CADJPY. Conclusion: With a mix of strong bullish indicators, particularly the COT bias, retail sentiment (considered contrarily), trend direction, and rising oil prices, CADJPY appears poised for bullish movement. LIKE and FOLLOW to stay updated for more ideas like this
Long
by Elite_Forex
Candle of breaked(AAVE)❤️❤️Thanks for boosting 🚀 and supporting us! 📈When I am in a reng and that reng is broken with a powerful candle, I can decide to follow the same process from the broken side, and AAVE has exactly the same conditions. 📊 (Entry) : 119.57 🔴 Stop Loss : 111.34 🎯 Take Profit : 125-131-138-144 🔗 For more communication with us, In the footnote and send a message in TradingView. 👨‍🎓 Experience and Education: Our trading team has five years of experience in financial markets, especially cryptocurrencies.
Long
by ahmadarz
2
Bitcoin short to $3800 area Shorted 1.5 coins BTC/USD on FTMO at $42,081.05. Looking to pass the $200,000 swing trade account and this is my first trade. Looking for a break down of that level highlighted in blue with a move down to around $38,000 where the next large level of support seems to be. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD On a seasonal basis, BTC tends to see poor returns in January, starting particularly on January 8th to January 28th. So I may be a little early and get stopped out -- but the price action seemed like a good bet right now for a breakdown. If I do get stopped out I may wait a few more days and try to get short again at a higher level.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Teflonwulfie
Buy VIX Futs with an ETF for simplicity before Santa rally overDowbt Im only one who is front running reversal unjustified market rally with no earning proof driven by inflation that is diminishing no longer supporting earnings JPM'a theory basically mid this pas year but he was correct but too early to the earnings crash party! Now that Dem's fiscal punch bowl is nearly empty adding 7 trillion to national debt in less than a year to help midterms and markets just priced in 5 rate cuts and earnings multiples at 20 (long-term=15) including mag-7 take out mag-7 not so hot). Hard to justify any more growth with excelorating diss-inflation and "black-swan" risk is non-black swan character as so many increasingly potential systemic risk just keep stacking up, plus a corrupted Presidential Administration, Congress, Dept. of Justice, FBI, Dept. of homeland security, school system, universities, and mainstream media have perpetuated/caused the problem with bs employment numbers, omissions and flat out lies as well as staring wars, ruining trade agreements and unleashing the worst inflation in 40 years all about to collapse from sheer societal rejection that will most likely be exposed causing worst crash best described by Jeremy Gratham (just YouTube him if your not familiar with the oldest and most historically-successful "Wall-Streeter perma-bear") NOTICE: Expressions are not recommendation or advice. If you are not competent then obviously should consult what is called an "Advisor" on the subject. Don't blame me if you make a decision based on this as it is only an opinion and past performance does not constitute a reasonable basis for future performance or non-performance as we don't have a time-machine obviously this goes without saying but some really doubt people make it a habit to assume they know with certainty and can guarantee what the future holds and to those I say sit down and humble your self or the market will humble you for yourself in "New York Second," and that is pretty fast. Just saying, don't be a fool and use common sense and trade size and don't blame others for your decisions, and, trade responsibly.
CBOE:UVIXLong
by CurrencyCapital
1
Update Swing Gold 27/12Update Swing Gold 27/12 With this idea, we can easily see that the price is approaching the blue dotted line, but past signals show that when the price marks its territory on the blue indicator line, the price increases by 263, which is This also convinces us that when we wait to break through the line, it will be more difficult to gain profit at 263 price. One more thing, at the 4-hour frame, the price broke through the red cloud and stayed above it, the future blue cloud is thick, this is the catalyst for the gold price to increase sharply in the last days of the month without much adjustment. Maybe this is a continuing rising wave at the 4 hour frame, all factors agree and support it. See more ideas below with the morning star candlestick pattern to strongly reinforce the rising gold price line that will continue at the end of this fourth quarter without significant adjustment. Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EricGoldHunter