Seasonality
ZEC/USDT Major trend. 2 halving 17 11 2024. 17/160,18Major trend. Large time frame for clarity. Old exchange Poloniex (low liquidity) due to long trading history to show everything clearly. As you can see with each cycle the highs are decreasing....
Cycles of life and death . This cryptocurrency is going into its third cycle. It will most likely be the last because of its anonymity. In a decentralized super centralized world, nothing can be anonymous! Am I wrong? States don't need anything anonymous. The demands of market regulation will “strangle” anything anonymous. But, this is later, and before the halving, which will happen on 17 11 2024 with a high probability they will pump up to 160.18$, and maybe even higher, if the card falls.
Saving "dirty money" when CBDC is introduced by banks . Some people think that when CBDC of central banks is introduced, through anonymous coins like ZEC, HMR and so on, big capital will "save" their shadow money. A fairy tale for school children. I have little faith in it. I think such money has been saved long ago. Although this story to create a news background as a reason to pump has a place ....
It's worth noting that BCH and BTC will first halve in April 2024.
News from Satoshi . By the way, "rumor has it" that closer to the summer of 2024, according to the plot of our crypto movie called good/bad, a new “Satoshi Nakamoto”. Will be announced, who will plunge everyone into “uncertainty of actions/consequences” in the market. Rumors also claim it will be the universally hated villain, Craig Wright). Do you think the role will go to another villain, Roger Ver? Or have these two characters already played out and the role will go to someone else? Or maybe the plot itself will be canceled? Perhaps. Time will tell, the manipulators can come up with anything, that's not the point.
Immunity from news nonsense. The main thing is to treat such "crypto stories", even if there is a real imitation of provability, with the utmost equanimity. Remember, no matter what is going on, it is all a hoax to capitalize on the direction of the trend. The news background that is created to accompany price movement.
Line chart.
Secondary trend. Timeframe 3 days
AVAX - PARABOLIC Next Bullrun🐮+400% TPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
AVAXUSDT is another altcoin currently trading lower than it's first ATH. This is important, because it makes for an excellent low risk and high reward trade. As we see the markets current trading in the accumulation phase where range trading is common, I'm expecting sideways trading between the support zone and the resistance zone. We can then expect the final low volume selloff, as per Wyckoff Method Phases.
Interested in another altcoin that's trading under it's first ATH? Check out Litecoin :
Remember to hit 👍 and follow if you love money !
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Why TESLA is STILL heading LOWERHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
A quick analysis today on Tesla and why I'm still expecting the price of TSLA to head lower.
After a nasty Head and Shoulders Pattern on the monthly, TSLA has reached a selling climax and an automatic rally afterwards (which always follows a SC). However, if we look at the Wyckoff Method schematics, this is not yet the bottom. The bottom is expected to happen during phase B, which is the phase we're about to head into.
ST will always be LOWER than SC, therefore there will be another chance to accumulate TESLA at a lower entry.
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NASDAQ:TSLA
ROSE Bloom depends on PollinationGM Gardeners!
The Summer season is going to an end and one of our flowers seems to still be in its early stages of the pollination.
Most roses bloom between late spring and early fall, typically taking about six weeks to produce each new set of flowers as the plant continues growing throughout the season.
However, our flower didn't actually bloom just yet. In the past year, it shown a great smell of victory in June, because we've feed the ground at its Area #1. This year we've gone through this Area and formed the underground, Area #2, and even had some cold snowy blossom.
Remember: Carefully pruning, feeding, and controlling any pests or diseases on your roses is the best way to encourage new blooms.
That's why we have to carefully feed the ground at the Area #2. After that we can test this ground and touch the middle point of the wedge like this:
(BoS is the breaking of structure. If we confirm BoS High, than the Area #2 has been feeded enough. If we confirm BoS Low, The feeding process will just begin)
However, My long term guess is that each massive flowering requires the Renewed land. That's why I'm expecting coming to the Unexplored Area #3 for the blossom to take part this Fall.
Have a Good Harvest
Yours truly,
Gardener A.I.Vision
GRTUSDT - Riding the AI Narrative 🚀GRTUSDT - Riding the AI Narrative 🚀
Overview:
GRTUSDT is positioned for a bullish surge, fueled by the current narrative around artificial intelligence (AI). The intersection of blockchain and AI technologies presents a compelling case for GRT's potential.
Fundamental Analysis:
AI Integration: The increasing synergy between blockchain and AI is becoming a significant narrative in the tech and crypto space.
GRT's Role: As a decentralized protocol for the development of AI applications on the blockchain, GRT is poised to attract capital from institutions and investors keen on the AI narrative.
Technical Analysis:
Supportive Chart Patterns: The technical landscape supports the narrative, with patterns indicating a potential uptrend.
Volume Uptick: Expect a surge in trading volume as the narrative gains momentum.
Price Target:
Given the strong narrative and potential capital influx, our price target for GRTUSDT is set at 0.50 cents, representing a potential increase of around 350%.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Strategically place a stop-loss to manage risk, considering recent support levels.
Diversification: Diversify your portfolio to spread risk, especially when investing based on thematic narratives.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Conduct thorough research and employ risk management strategies in your trading decisions.
Conclusion:
GRTUSDT stands at the intersection of blockchain and the AI narrative, offering substantial growth potential. Stay informed, monitor market developments, and trade responsibly.
Black Friday Buzz for AMZNThe Giant of e-commerce and AWS for small businesses, which now has AI integrated, is moving up in anticipation of a strong Black Friday for $NASDAQ:AMZN.
The new CEO who took over form Jeff Bezos is doing a good job. As the CEO of the AWS division, he did an amazing job building that division of AMZN. Outstanding CEOs make a company great. CEOs are more important than most investors realize.
Weekly Chart shows that AMZN is about 40 points from its all-time high, so plenty of opportunity for it to move up further from here. The Blue lines indicate levels where Dark Pool buy zones and Pro traders moved in most heavily. These are now strong support levels for the stock.
NAS100 19/11/23Nas100 we are within a bullish range looking for longs overall expecting price to go to the h We have highlighted as SWH Looking for a pullback because we have no poi within this range I wouldn't be surprised if we liquidate our low giving us an entry model for long from the swing low.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
Bitcoin Mid-cycle Peak 🚀As I predicted, it will happen by the end of 2023.
On the weekly RSI, we entered the overbought zone.
Earlier I wrote:
Historically, the mid-cycle peak in Bitcoin coincides with the RSI approaching the overbought zone.
Additionally, considering the "Feels invest zones", we can observe that the purple zone🟪 often acts as a significant resistance level.
When to Buy Crypto and Sell Assets (Vice Versa)This chart should illustrate a general idea of when you should be looking to offload your crypto investments in exchange for assets like real estate and luxury assets. And when to buy crypto and sell assets. I found an inverse correlation between DXY and BTC. Imagine DXY as an Asset Line Chart (orange) because DXY measure the strength of an asset against the US dollar.
Hopefully this helps!
AAL recovery timeWith holidays approaching, the demand for travel could increase. This one has been sold off heavily until recent earning.
As you see on the chart, after latest earning reported, the down trend has ended.
This one could reverse to the way up.
Target 19.
This is not a financial advise but just an idea.
Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 .
As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now.
As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action.
Natural gas storage
Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March.
The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020.
While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years.
These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high?
Unseasonal weather
One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating.
Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states:
“Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.”
The EIA adds:
“We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.”
High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas…
Price Seasonality
Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January.
Price Action
On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance.
On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility.
To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.eia.gov
www.bloomberg.com
www.eia.gov
www.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com
www.cmegroup.com
Short in CL, if 4h close below 80The COT Index provided a Sell Signal in the last weeks and bearish seasonality in 6 years and 9 years average. Bearish trend reversal confirmed with close of candle below support level (now resistane) on 3.11.2023:
1d and 4h show strong bearish reversal areas according to marketstructure. A 4h close will give a great oppertunity for short trade w take profit just above next strong suppot key level.
RR 1:1.5
Make your own decisions.
Just wait!After analyzing almost all the major pairs, I have just a few that follow my method.
One of these pairs is this. Not difficult, just wait for the price to come to your delimited zone in the proper schedule and enter, now just wait. As you can see, the entrance follows the structure. We will see if this is working.
Primer on Crude Oil Crack SpreadEver dreamt of being an oil refiner? Fret not. You can operate a virtual refinery using a combination of energy derivatives that replicates oil refiner returns.
Crude oil is the world’s most traded commodity. Oil consumption fuels the global economy. Crude is refined into gasoline and distillates.
Refining is the process of cracking crude into its usable by-products. Gross Processing Margin (GPM) guides refineries to modulate their output. Crack spread defines GPM in oil refining.
This primer provides an overview of factors affecting the crack spread. It delves into the mechanics of harnessing refining spread gains using CME suite of energy products.
UNPACKING THE CRACK SPREAD
Crack spread is the difference between price of outputs (gasoline & distillate prices) and the inputs (crude oil price). Cracking is an industry term pointing to breaking apart crude oil into its component products.
Portfolio managers can use CME energy futures to gain exposure to the GPM for US refiners. CME offers contracts that provide exposure to WTI Crude Oil ( CL ) as well as the most liquid refined product contracts namely NY Harbor ULSD ( HO ) and RBOB Gasoline ( RB ).
Crude Prices
Crude oil prices play a significant role in determining the crack spread. Refining profitability is directly impacted by crude oil price volatility which is influenced by geopolitics, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions.
Higher oil prices lead to a narrowing crack spread. Lower crude prices result in wider margins.
Expectedly, one leg of the crack spread comprises of crude oil.
Gasoline Prices
Gasoline is arguably the most important refined product of crude oil. Gasoline is not a direct byproduct of the distillation process. It is a blend of distilled products that provides the most consistent motor fuel.
Gasoline prices at the pump in the US vary by region. Price differs due to differences in state taxes, distance from supply sources, competition among gasoline retailers, operating costs in the region, and state-specific regulations.
CME’s RBOB Gasoline contract provides exposure to Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB). It is procured by local retailers, who blend in their own additives and sell the final product at pumps.
RBOB is blended with ethanol to create reformulated gasoline. It produces less smog than other blends. Consequently, it is mandated by about 30% of the US market. RBOB price is thus representative of US gasoline demand.
Each CME RBOB Gasoline contract provides exposure to 42,000 gallons. It is quoted in gallons instead of barrels. The contract size is equivalent to one thousand barrels like the crude oil contract.
Distillate Prices
Distillate or Heating Oil is another important refined product of crude oil. Distillate is used to make jet fuel and diesel. Demand for distillate products is distinct from gasoline demand.
A substantial portion of the North-East US lack adequate connection to natural gas. Hence, the region depends on HO for energy during winters making HO sensitive to weather.
CME NY Harbor ULSD contract ("ULSD”) provides exposure to 42,000 gallons of Ultra-low sulphur diesel which is a type of HO. ULSD contract is also equivalent to one thousand barrels.
Chart: ULSD Price Performance Over the Last Twenty Years.
TRADING THE CRACK SPREAD
The crack spread can be expressed using the above contracts in three distinct ways:
1) 1:1 SPREAD
This spread consists of a single contract of CL on one leg and a single contract of one of the refined products on the other. This spread helps traders to express their view on the relationship between single type of refined product against crude oil. It is useful when price of one of the refined products diverges from crude oil prices.
1:1 spread is also useful when there are distinct conditions affecting each of the refined products.
2) 3:2:1 SPREAD
This spread consists of (3 contracts of CL) on one leg and (2 contracts RBOB + 1 contract of ULSD) on the other leg. The entire position thus consists of six contracts. It assumes that three barrels of crude can be used to create two barrels of RBOB and one barrel of HO.
This trade is better at capturing the actual refining margin. It is commonly used by refiners to hedge their market exposure to crude and refined products.
3:2:1 spread is used by investors to express views on conditions affecting refineries.
3) 5:3:2 SPREAD
Spread consists of (5 contracts of CL) on one leg and (3 contracts of RBOB + 2 contracts of heating oil) on the other leg. This spread captures the actual proportions from the refining process. However, it is much more capital-intensive.
FACTORS IMPACTING CRACK SPREAD
Seasonality, supply-demand dynamics, and inventory levels collectively impact crack spreads.
Seasonality
Mint Finance covered seasonal factors affecting crude oil prices in a previous paper . In that paper, we described that crude seasonality is influenced by variation in refined products demand.
In summer, gasoline demand is higher, and, in the winter, distillate demand is higher.
Seasonal price performance of the three contracts is distinct leading to a unique seasonal variation in various crack spreads. Summary performance of the three spreads is provided below.
Chart: Seasonal price performance of Crude, its refined products, and their spread (excluding years 2008, 2009 and 2020 in which extreme price moves were observed)
Refiners strategically time their operations based on seasonal trends, ramping up refinery capacity ahead of peak demand in summer and winter. This involves building up inventories to meet anticipated high demand.
However, this preparation often results in a narrowed spread just before peak utilization. As the spread reaches its lowest point, refiners take capacity offline for maintenance.
Subsequently, crack margins begin to expand as refined product supplies dwindle, aligning with decreased crude oil consumption. This results in a gradually increasing spread through high consumption periods.
Supply/Inventories
Supply and inventories of crude oil and refined products influence crack spreads. When inventories of refined products remain elevated, their prices decline narrowing the spread.
When the production and inventory of crude oil is elevated, its price declines leading to a widening spread.
On the contrary, low inventories of refined products can lead to a wider crack spread and low inventories of crude oil leads to a narrower crack spread.
Demand
Refinery demand has a self-balancing effect as higher refining requires higher consumption of crude which acts to increase crude oil prices.
Demand for crude oil and refined products is broadly correlated. However, there are often periods when demand diverges on a short-term scale.
Economic activity and available supplies drive demand for refined products. During periods of high economic growth, refined product consumption is robust pushing their price higher.
Demand for refined products can precede or lag demand for crude oil from seasonal as well as trend-based factors. This lag can be identified using the crack spread. Sharp moves in crack spread pre-empt moves in the underlying which act to normalize the spread.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
There are two trends defining the crack spread currently:
1) Divergence in demand & inventories of gasoline and distillates: Low demand for gasoline is evident due to expectations of an economic slowdown while gasoline inventories remain elevated. Though, distillate consumption remains high as inventories are declining and lower than the 5-year average range.
Chart: Divergence in inventories of distillate and gasoline (Source – EIA 1 , 2 ).
Moreover, inventories of gasoline and distillates are higher than usual. Both factors together have led to a gloomy outlook for refined product demand. Gasoline stocks have started to increase while distillate stocks are still declining.
When refined product inventories are elevated investors can position short on the crack spread in anticipation of ample supply. Conversely, if refined product inventories are low, investors can position long on the crack spread.
Chart: Divergence in refined product inventories in US (gasoline rising and distillate declining).
2) Declining crude price and tight supplies: In September, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts extending into January. Globally, this led to a supply deficit of crude oil. Supplies of crude in the US was particularly stressed as refiners increased utilization to build up inventories while margins were high and exacerbated by a pipeline outage.
Chart: Crude Oil inventories in US have stabilized in September and October.
Following increase in oil prices, refining activity has slowed, and supplies have become more stable.
When inventories of crude are stable or elevated, it indicates less demand from refiners. Investors can opt to position long on the crack spread anticipating ample crude supply.
Chart: US Refinery Utilization and Crude Inputs have slowed in October.
Although, crude oil supply cuts from Saudi are going to continue until January 2024, there is no longer a deficit as consumption has slowed down.
Together, both trends have caused a sharp collapse in the crack spread. Value of the 3:2:1 crack spread has declined by 50% over the past month.
Prices of refined products have been affected more negatively by low demand than crude oil. Inventories and supply situation for refined products is more secure than crude oil. Still, seasonal trends suggest an expansion in crack spread once refined product inventories start to be depleted.
HARNESSING GAINS FROM CHANGES IN CRACK SPREAD
Two hypothetical trade setups are described below which can be used to take positions on the crack spread based on assessment of current conditions.
LONG 3:2:1 SPREAD
Based on (a) sharp decline in crack spread which is likely to revert, and (b) seasonal trend pointing to increase in the crack spread, investors can take a long position in the crack spread. This consists of:
• Long position in 2 x RBF2024 and 1 x HOF2024
• Short position in 3 x CLF2024
The position profits when:
1) Price of RBOB and ULSD rise faster than Crude.
2) Price of Crude declines faster than RBOB and ULSD.
The position looses when:
1) Price of Crude rises faster than RBOB and ULSD.
2) Price of RBOB and ULSD declines faster than Crude.
• Entry: 63.81
• Target: 79.12
• Stop Loss: 55.73
• Profit at Target: USD 45,930 ((Target-Entry) x 1000 x 3)
• Loss at Stop: USD 24,240 ((Stop-Entry) x 1000 x 3)
• Reward/Risk: 1.89x
LONG 1:1 HEATING OIL SPREAD
Based on relative bullishness in distillate inventories plus stronger seasonal demand for distillates during winter, margins for refining heating oil will likely rise faster than gasoline refining margins. Focusing the expanding crack margin on a 1:1 heating oil margin spread can lead to a stronger payoff.
This position consists of Long 1 x HOF2024 and Short 1 x CLF2024 .
The position profits when:
1) Price of ULSD rises faster than Crude.
2) Price of Crude declines faster than ULSD.
The position will endure losses when:
1) Price of Crude rises faster than ULSD.
2) Price of ULSD declines faster than Crude.
• Entry: 36.15
• Target: 42.79
• Stop Loss: 32.3
• Profit at Target: USD 6,640 ((Target-Entry) x 1000)
• Loss at Stop: USD 3,850 ((Stop-Entry) x 1000)
• Reward/Risk: 1.72x
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Crack spread refers to the gross processing margin of refining (“cracking”) crude oil into its by-products.
Refined products RBOB and ULSD can be traded on the CME as separate commodities. Both are representative of demand for crude oil from distinct sources.
There are three types of crack spread: 1:1, 3:2:1, and 5:3:2.
a. 1:1 can be used to express views on the relationship between one of the refined products and crude.
b. 3:2:1 can be used to express views on the refining margin of refineries.
c. 5:4:3 can give a more granular view of proportions of refined products produced at refineries but is far more capital-intensive.
Crack spreads are affected by seasonality, supply, and inventory levels of crude and refined products, as well as demand for each refined product.
A low-demand outlook for refined products of crude is prevalent due to expectations of an economic slowdown.
MARKET DATA
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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