Crypto market in fogwe are approaching to crypto season but I think, before the big rally, the market needs some liquidity and fear.
I would really like jumping to the market as soon as total goes under 1T💵
NFA
DYOR
Seasonality
XAU/Gold integrated into the George Tritch 1872 prediction chartPeriods when to make money according to George Tritch 1872 integrated into the TVC:XAU (Gold) chart. The periodicity prediction chart itself is included into the price chart of XAU / Gold.
Quick update on CB rat raceAs you citizens can see we've found a mistake in our earlier analysis, we are apoligising for this. We think that during summer of 1998 Russian Federation stepped into fx trading big time and move cycles towards bigger and longer planning. So as you have guessed this is a game of sharade about who is planning longer and who is taking gaps. Thank you and see you later, have a good working week guests.
Holding Previous Lows I have draw the important level of support that must hold at any cost.
If bulls are not able to defend this level next week, then there is lot of room for downside.
Support range is from 14,700 to 14,650
For remember this is seasonal strong period so there is a very high chances of us NOT FALLING and rallying through a long slow CHOP
NQ Framing: anticipating seasonal LowHello everyone,
We have had a bearish weekly bias and have continued downward today crossing an important level.
As shared previously, I have been watching these levels in case we get a new low for October, surpassing the earlier one, signaling the seasonal low for Q4.
We are very close to breaking that level. Rarely do you come this close to an important level without reaching it.
I would like to see 14586 broken, for a new low.
There ARE levels below that, and of course anything is possible.
However, I will consider the break of 14586 the seasonal low for this quarter, unless
convincing signs of further downside occur.
Important to note we are framed by a weekly gap above and below- there is a lot of room between this range.
I will be looking for daily moves between those for now.
Have a great weekend!
Lost 50-Day EMA & Anchored VWAP as well.We closed the day with heavy volume and also below the two most important things (50 EMA on daily and Anchored VWAP)
If we don't close above these two things tomorrow, then there is lot of downside to come.
The problem is this is a very strong seasonal period. so there will be a lot of chop.
Tomorrow FED CHAIR POWEL is going to speak so we will have to see how the markets digest his speech.
Be very careful especially tomorrow.
(TOTAL2) Alt coin market cap!!!!!Alt coins are bloody, the market moves based on Demand and Supply
If we go back to our chart, we can see here that there is not much demand in that area, between 600B to 680B.
In our previous data, in that area there was a good upward impulse movement, but now the sellers are more aware.
We can go back to the 400B range of the Alts marketcap, and we can still feel the price drop in some of our altcoins across the market.
be careful when positioning trades on different alt coins. Don't over trade too much. Relax and enjoy different things first to avoid big losses in the market.
PS: 400B support + Moving average 200 ; massive buying zone.
Happy trading!!
Monday BaselineMonday is what I use as a baseline for the week. I don't trade Mondays.
Here are the important levels I am watching for the week.
We are at a critical point and could see many surprises.
However I would like to see price not go higher than the two dashed red lines near the center, for some further retracement. there is a Daily FVG just above the first one.
Any time we get a pullback it makes a run higher stronger.
I prefer to trade with strength, not in choppy iffy conditions.
There is a possibility, as I discussed last week that we may see new lows.
But price has to go up before it can go down, and vice versa. premium and discount of a range, et.
There's a lot of world events right now that could impact market behavior as well as red folder news on the economic calendar.
Keep an eye on oil, gold and the DXY.
Have a great week everyone!
Chf/Jpy Counter-TrendTrade Idea for CHF/JPY
Bias: Counter-Trend
While the underlying fundamentals may favor a bullish move for CHF/JPY, there are compelling reasons to consider a counter-trend trade:
Bank of Japan's (BoJ) History with USD/JPY: The USD/JPY is inching closer to the significant 150 level. Notably, in the past, when the pair approached this level, the BoJ stepped in to intervene in the forex market. Should history repeat itself, this intervention could create ripples across JPY pairs, including CHF/JPY.
Market's Anticipation of FED Moves: The market chatter is starting to buzz about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. Any significant shift in interest rate expectations can induce forex market volatility, potentially benefiting our counter-trend perspective on CHF/JPY.
Conclusion: While going against the grain of fundamentals might seem risky, the potential BoJ intervention combined with changing rate expectations from the FED presents an intriguing counter-trend opportunity for CHF/JPY.
ES/MES Analysis: Santa Rally??Prepare for a potential market shift that hinges on a compelling fractal pattern traced from May to July 2023 on the ES/MES futures chart. This analysis centers around the exciting prospects of a Santa Rally and a looming impulse wave higher, all rooted in the echoes of that distinct price action fractal.
The May to July 2023 Fractal:
Our analysis is anchored in the recent past, as we delve into the May to July 2023 timeframe, a period marked by intriguing price action. This historical fractal holds the key to our optimistic outlook, as it serves as a roadmap for what may unfold in the coming months.
Santa Rally on the Horizon:
The anticipation of a Santa Rally becomes even more tantalizing when viewed through the lens of this compelling fractal. If historical patterns repeat, we are on the brink of a year-end market surge, mirroring the dynamics witnessed earlier this year.
Impulse Wave Higher:
The completion of a 3-month A-B-C correction hints at the potential for an imminent impulse wave higher. This wave, inspired by the May to July 2023 fractal, could take prices on an exciting journey, potentially pushing them toward all-time highs.
As traders prepare to navigate these promising market movements, it's essential to remember that while fractals can provide valuable insights, the financial markets are inherently unpredictable. Prudent risk management and expert advice are vital when making trading decisions.
Stay tuned for further updates as we closely monitor the ES/MES futures chart, guided by the patterns and possibilities drawn from the May to July 2023 fractal, paving the way for an exciting journey in the world of trading.
-ChatGPT
--Michael Scott
Key points for seasonality tracking Is the low in or notWe definitely saw a reaction after tapping into that daily FVG above.
I expected a retrace after that.
now we have to see if it finishes this as a small retracement or puts in a surprise new low for seasonality.
Price could retrace to and bounce off those FVG's or go past the last two lowest lows for a surprise.
We will know more after today and Monday.
these are the key points of interest I am watching.
Have a great weekend!
13 Oct Levels with POILevels I am watching for Friday- shown with daily FVG to be more clear about points of interest.
Dashed Black line is the 50% line of yesterdays move, denoting premium and discount.
Black heavy lines are yesterday's H/L
It is yet to be seen if the final October low is in.
It is possible to have slightly more expansion, with a deeper retracement beginning next week
or we could retrace tomorrow for a new lower low.
For intraday trading this does not matter as much. keep your eyes on strong points of interest such as weekly and daily FVG's, previous Days H/L
As always, we trade during specific times only.
happy trading!
have a great weekend!
13 Oct Levels I am watchingChart refreshed after today's price action.
Dashed orange is the 50% line of yesterdays move, denoting premium and discount.
Black heavy lines are yesterday's H/L
It is yet to be seen if the final October low is in.
It is possible to have slightly more expansion, with a deeper retracement beginning next week
or we could retrace tomorrow for a new lower low.
For intraday trading this does not matter as much. keep your eyes on strong points of interest such as weekly and daily FVG's, previous Days H/L
As always, we trade during specific times only.
happy trading!
have a great weekend!
On My Radar: watching reaction when we tap into daily FVGWatching reaction when we tap into daily FVG above. Will price retrace lower ? will it retrace lower and then bounce?
Oct 13 was the low last year, it signaled the seasonal low before taking off to the upside for Q4.
I am watching carefully now to see if we stick with seasonality trends.
CPI/PPI/ other economic numbers could propel us higher or lower.
Bitcoin on the Verge of a New Bull Market? Bitcoin vs Gold.Introduction:
This year's Bitcoin Amsterdam event was noticeably quieter than the previous edition, potentially indicating an upcoming bull market. Let's explore the current status of Bitcoin and its comparison with gold.
Visitor Numbers and Market Sentiment:
This year, the attendance at Bitcoin Amsterdam was significantly lower than the previous year when it focused on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Governments seem to no longer consider Bitcoin a problem, as long as it remains on the fringes of the financial system. What is evident this year is that Bitcoin is still a niche and not a mass movement in the crypto world. The current market is characterized by tepid interest and tranquility.
Is a New Bull Market Imminent?
The lack of interest and market calm may, however, suggest an upcoming bull market. Such periods of subdued activity often precede significant price movements. While the chart appears promising, the sentiment has not fully aligned yet, but this is a characteristic of market bottoms.
The Importance of Market Cycles:
The significance of market cycles is emphasized, with the idea that high interest typically occurs at the peak of hype, signaling a need to consider selling. The current phase of relative calm in the Bitcoin market is considered healthy, as markets require cooling-off periods and corrections.
Bitcoin and Gold: A Comparison:
In 2014, Bitcoin was already dubbed 'digital gold,' and similarities in price patterns are highlighted between gold and Bitcoin in response to a growing money supply. Both serve as hedges against inflation and retain their value in monetary terms.
The Future of Bitcoin and Gold:
There is no expectation that Bitcoin will quickly surpass gold. Gold serves as insurance for the financial system, while Bitcoin serves more as a speculative instrument to position outside the traditional monetary system.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin exhibits indications of an impending bull market, while gold maintains its solid status as financial 'insurance.' While gold retains its established position, Bitcoin may have a promising future, with an increasingly prominent role in the global financial landscape.
GOLDNo one can convince us that gold will continue to fall, because it is gold. For big investments, we can start buying gold without fear and Stoploss
Bitcoin and Elections 👀You say "What do they have in common"?🤔
At a minimum, Bitcoin and elections have a similar 4-year cycle.
From past posts, we know that the stock market is quite often correlated with CRYPTOCAP:BTC , with some minor exceptions.
💡Also, the correlation between the SP500 and the election cycle is already well-studied. The tendency is that towards the end of the term, you always want to show the economy from the best side. There may be an injection of liquidity.
Conclusion. If this trend continues, we can expect that in 2024 Bitcoin will have a fairly positive year.↗️
Update Oil 6/10Update Oil 6/10
In my opinion, oil will gradually lose its value by 2030, but before it collapses, I predict there will be another strong increase following the crazy tyrant dinosaur model.
combined with this idea >>
And here >>
BTC: From Halving To New All Time HighDays from halving to new all time high:
- 1st halving: 56 days
- 2nd halving: 231 days
- 3rd halving: 203 days
Trend reversal to the UPSIDE if Nq! Holds 100 EMA on DailyLooking at today's Bounce with high Volume, the Nasdaq futures have again reclaimed 100 EMA on the daily timeframe. There is a very high probability that Nasdaq Futures will go higher in coming days and test 50 day EMA. If it closes above 14,809 tomorrow, then this is the trend reversal and we are again in the bullish trend. Keep an eye on the 100 EMA, if it looses then there will be a lot of selling to the short side. As of now we are very bullish in coming days till Friday. And then we can analyze the closing of the week.
Cup and handle on weekly timeframeIs it possible that Nasdaq is forming a long term cup and handle formation?
ASX Index (XJO) vs. Aussie VIX (XVI) ~ Inverse CorrelationAussie Volatility Index wreaking havoc on ASX.
XJO ~6500 range & XVI ~20 range marked out as area(s) of interest for potential supply/demand dynamics, TBC.
