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Uptober is here: what it means for Bitcoin and the crypto marketAs October arrives, crypto enthusiasts and traders are gearing up for what has affectionately become known as "Uptober." Historically, October has proven to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with significant price movements and market-shaping events. In this article, we'll explore the historical context of Uptober, examine potential factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month, and provide insights to help you navigate this exciting period. Historical Significance of October in Crypto: October holds a special place in the hearts of crypto enthusiasts due to several notable events that have occurred in this month over the years. One of the most iconic moments is the mysterious launch of the Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto on October 31, 2008. This event marked the beginning of the revolutionary blockchain technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Bitcoin has experienced significant price movements during previous Octobers. Notably, in October 2017, Bitcoin's price surged to an all-time high of nearly $20,000, sparking a frenzy of interest and investment in the cryptocurrency. This bull run was followed by a market correction, but it cemented October as a month to watch for crypto traders. Factors Influencing Uptober 2023: While historical data provides intriguing insights, it's crucial to consider the current landscape and potential catalysts for Uptober 2023. Here are some factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month: Institutional Adoption: The continued involvement of institutional investors and large corporations in the crypto space is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics. Positive news regarding institutional adoption, such as more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, could boost confidence in the market. Regulatory Developments: Regulatory actions and statements from governments around the world can have a substantial impact on crypto markets. Traders will closely monitor any regulatory news that may provide clarity or uncertainty regarding the legality and oversight of cryptocurrencies. Market Sentiment: Crypto markets are highly sensitive to investor sentiment. Positive sentiment can lead to FOMO (fear of missing out) buying, while negative sentiment can trigger panic selling. Events like conferences, major announcements, or celebrity endorsements can influence market sentiment. Global Economic Conditions: Broader economic conditions, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, can drive interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional financial uncertainties. Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," tends to perform well in such environments. Navigating Uptober: As Uptober unfolds, it's essential to approach the market with a clear strategy and risk management plan. Here are some tips for navigating this exciting yet volatile period: Diversify Your Portfolio: Avoid putting all your investments into a single cryptocurrency. Diversification can help spread risk. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments in the crypto space. Information is key to making informed decisions. Set Realistic Goals: Define your investment goals and risk tolerance. Avoid chasing quick profits and be prepared for market fluctuations. Use Technical Analysis: Consider using technical analysis tools and indicators to make informed trading decisions. Stay Calm: Emotions can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your trading plan and avoid making decisions based on fear or greed. In conclusion, Uptober is an exciting time for the crypto market, filled with opportunities and challenges. By staying informed, adopting a strategic approach, and managing risk, traders and investors can make the most of this pivotal month in the world of cryptocurrencies. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a newcomer, October promises to be a captivating chapter in the ongoing crypto narrative.
Long
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
Navigating Rocky Oct After a Crushing Sept in US EquitiesSeasonality is pervasive in financial markets. Some are benign while others are not. The “September Effect” refers to a month when equity returns gets crushed. Typically, this is followed by a volatile October. Other well-established pattern in equity markets is the "Santa Claus Rally" which is known to occur during December. Equities go bullish with increased optimism, holiday spending, and portfolio rebalancing before the end of the year. Then, there is also the "January Effect" where small-caps tend to outperform large-caps in the early part of the year. Essential to remember that historical trends do not guarantee future performance. This paper delves into the September Effect followed by the volatility which tends to be witnessed during the month of October. Portfolio managers can prudently position their portfolios to gain from rising volatility and sharp price moves in October and the rest of the final quarter. WHAT EXPLAINS POOR EQUITY RETURNS IN SEPTEMBER? There is no exact rationale explaining why September is historically the worst month of the year for equities. Over the last 94 years, September is the only individual month that has declined at least 50% of the time. Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy surmises in an opinion note that three drivers plausibly explains this: 1. Post Summer Vacation: In the lead up to summer in Europe, average trading volumes grind lower resulting in lower volatility from June to August. When portfolio managers and investors return in September, their collective rebalancing of portfolios cause panicked exits as they create space for new holdings. This mass-exodus of selling shares pushes prices lower making September the worst month for stocks. 2. Year-end for Mutual Funds: Many mutual funds close their fiscal year in September. These funds purge their portfolios during this ill-fated month. 3. New Bond Issuances: Like equity trading activity, bond issuances ease during summer and return with vengeance and spikes in September. New issuances channel existing money into bonds forcing investors to rotate out of equities and into bonds. SEPTEMBER US EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE IN THIS MILLENNIUM Does the September effect prevail in the current millennium? Since start of 2000, September indeed is the worst month for S&P 500 stocks with average returns of -1.8%. Surprisingly, the months with the highest occurrence of negative returns is not September but January. Over the last 23 years, January had 13 months of negative returns. June along with September rank second with 12 occurrences of negative returns during the same period. The chart below summarises average monthly returns of S&P 500 index. Clearly, on average, September stands out as a poor performer while April is the best . Interestingly, the S&P 500 shares tend to deliver positive returns with average upside performance of 3.22% in the fourth and final quarter of the year. Likewise for Nasdaq 100, the September Effect is even more pronounced with index plunging 2.61% on average. Unlike S&P 500, February (14 of 23) has the highest number of months with occurrence of negative returns. The month with the second highest occurrences of negative returns are September, June, and December with 12 of 23 years marking a negative return. The chart below summarises average monthly returns on the Nasdaq 100 index. While September crushes Nasdaq stocks, October is the best month thus far this millennium. October and November deliver positive returns with a pullback in December. On average, Nasdaq 100 upside performance stands at +2.44% in the fourth quarter. A CRUSHING SEPTEMBER IS FOLLOWED BY A ROCKY OCTOBER While September is the king of worst month for stock returns, October claims the crown for being the most volatile. Over the last 23 years, the S&P 500 equity returns show the largest exaggeration in October. Range as used below is defined as the high minus the low of the month and then expressed as a percentage as month’s opening level. Analysis shows that equity returns move by 9.1% in October compared to 6.9% on average for the rest of the months in the year. Similarly, observations in Nasdaq-100 also point to exaggerated range of returns during the month of October. Range in Nasdaq monthly returns stand at 11% in October compared to 9.2% on average for the rest of the months in the year. Based on expected returns and volatility, investors in S&P 500 can expect large swings in returns in October as evident from the chart below. Likewise, Nasdaq 100 investors can expect large swings in October returns based on observations over the last 23 years. OUTLOOK FOR FINAL QUARTER OF 2023 Twenty-three years of historical observations point to a positive upward bias in equity returns for the last three months of the year. This time however, the outlook going into the final quarter is beset with head winds. Not one but five of them approaching in parallel. Risk lurks in many places. Strong dollar. Oil skirting near $100/barrel. Resumption of student loan repayments. Record high mortgage rates driven by higher for longer policy stance. Automotive workers striking at multiple plants potentially leading to higher labour costs and automotive inflation. Dollar is trading at 10-month highs. The US 30-year mortgage rates at record high levels unseen in 23-years. The 10-year US yield are at levels last observed during 2007. Gathering of these dark clouds are starting to show up in the University of Michigan’s US Consumer Confidence index. Since June, American exceptionalism boosted the index to 71.73 clocking a 52-week high. However, with a raft of concerns weighing on the consumers, the index has started to drop the last two months. HARVESTING VOLATILITY EXPANSION USING CME MICRO OPTIONS ON S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 INDEX In times of uncertainty, where seasonality leans towards a bullish rally but fundamentals signal a bearish grind, portfolio managers can position to gain from volatility expansion and sharp index moves in either direction. Options can be used to engineer a convex portfolio. Convexity in finance refers to portfolio strategies which enjoy outsized and solid gains while limiting downside risks. Convex strategies deliver non-linear returns with substantially higher gain for every unit of pain. LONG STRADDLE USING OPTIONS ON CME MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES Long straddles involve holding a simultaneous long call and long put position at the same strike price for the same expiration period. Let’s look at a hypothetic long straddle using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options expiring on 29th December 2023 at a strike price of 4400. The straddle pay-off is visualised in the chart below. This trade will generate positive returns when (a) index rises above 4655, or (b) index falls below 4145, or (c) volatility expands . The premium required for this trade (as of 2nd October 2023): (Premium for Call Option + Premium for Put Option) = (USD 631.7 + USD 636.65) = USD 1268.35. If index rises 10% to 4840: Call option would pay out ~USD 1568 = ((4840 – 4400) x 5 – Premium for Call Option) = (440 x 5 – 126.34) while the put option would expire worthless, so, net profit would be: (Net PnL from Call leg – Net PnL from Put Leg) = (1568 – 636.65) = ~USD 932 By the same measure, the long straddle will suffer losses if the index remains flat or its moves are muted. It also loses money if volatility remains flat or contracts. If index remains at 4400: Both options would expire worthless, so, the position would lead to a net loss of the premium paid = Loss of USD 1268.35. LONG STRADDLE USING OPTIONS ON MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 FUTURES Let’s look at another hypothetic long straddle using Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 options expiring on 29th December 2023 at a strike price of 15250. The straddle pay-off is visualised in the chart below. This trade will generate positive returns when (a) index rises above 16416, or (b) index falls below 14084, or (c) volatility expands. The long straddle will endure losses if the index remains flat or its moves within a narrow range. It will also lose if volatility remains flat or shrinks. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by mintdotfinance
12
SOL/USD Main trend. Cycles.Solana Super Hype. The main (long-term) trend. Timeframe 1 week. Logarithmic chart. Coin of the famous “hedge fund” Alameda-research. Despite the useful applications and development of various applications on this blockchain, the asset (coin) itself is in fantastic profits. Be careful when trading and follow risk management. This is the basis of profits. This clamp zone, is also an uptrend confirmation zone (the trend line is green) and at the same time acts as a huge head and shoulders neck zone. Coin Market: Solana line chart . A secondary downtrend (its resistance is the red line) has been developing since the peak of the price swing, at $250 per coin (the main volume is $0.10, the chart can't display that. The Doge is smoking in the sidelines). The minimum price decline is -90%. Every secondary trend is crazy pumping, just like LUNA was at one time.
BINANCE:SOLUSD
by SpartaBTC
34
Please forgive me because this market is not for the majority toWhen everything passes I will explain how I bought gold at 1860 - Reason 1: I observed in recent years, in the last week of the third quarter, which is the last days of September. Gold bottomed out - Reason 2: On September 28, 2022, Gold reached the bottom. The coincidence here is that yesterday was also September 28, exactly one year. And this year is temporarily like that because it reacted quite well to 17 prices and there was information today, September 29, 2023, that the US announced preparations for the possibility of a government shutdown. - Reason 3: Regarding the Ichimoku cloud in the weekly frame, the price returns immediately like a cloud, plus with a thick cloud shape like this, it is a very good support area to push the price of Gold up. My job now is to set the stop loss to the entry point and wait. If everything goes well and luckily for me, by the end of the third quarter of next year I will hit the take profit point of 2405. As for your business, if you find the above reasons convincing enough, maybe Fomo will let me trade :)) I don't have any signal groups, I want to store all my investment trading activities here so I can review them later to have memories of my investment process.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by EricGoldHunter
US100 | Market outlooknvestors focus on the actions of the US Federal Reserve in the face of a significant decline in inflation, cooling of the labor market, and instability of the banking sector. Thus, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month, conditions for access to credit could tighten, which would put pressure on the economy but save the regulator from the need to further increase interest rates. The official also noted that the current economic sanctions against Russia and several other countries may carry risks for the dollar as a world reserve currency if an alternative is found for it. Possible move towards 15154 - 15967.
ULong
by DynamicCapital-FX
4
How to Altseason Cycle || Cheat Sheet || Bitcoin DominanceMonitoring Bitcoin dominance (BTC-DOM) is a valuable tool for crypto traders. It provides insights into the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and altcoins (ALT-USD), helping you make bette decisions about your altcoins and tokens. Spotting Altcoin Seasons: Altcoin seasons are periods of heightened interest in different cryptocurrencies and tokens, often causing their total market cap to surpass that of Bitcoin. Understanding BTC-DOM's movements can help you anticipate how the market might react: 1. BTC-DOM Goes UP: When BTC-DOM rises and BTC-USD also climbs, it often indicates a bullish phase for Bitcoin. During this time, ALT-USD may stay relative stable and face sideways. If BTC-USD experiences a decline while BTC-DOM is on the upswing, ALT-USD might witness a significant dump. When BTC-USD moves sideways and BTC-DOM follows suit, ALT-USD tends to maintain a stable course. 2. BTC-DOM Goes SIDEWAYS: If BTC-DOM remains relatively stable and BTC-USD sees an uptrend, ALT-USD often mirrors this upward movement. Conversely, if BTC-USD takes a dip while BTC-DOM remains flat, ALT-USD tends to follow suit with a decline. When both BTC-USD and BTC-DOM exhibit sideways patterns, ALT-USD typically remains in a state of relative stability. 3. BTC-DOM Goes DOWN: A decrease in BTC-DOM coupled with a rising BTC-USD often leads to a pumps for ALT-USD. When BTC-USD experiences a decrease while BTC-DOM falls, ALT-USD may stabilize or enter a sideways phase. If BTC-USD moves sideways while BTC-DOM declines, ALT-USD often witnesses an upward movement. Remember that while these trends offer valuable insights, the crypto market is highly volatile. Low cap altcoins can behave unexpectedly even when Bitcoin dominance suggests a particular trend. Therefore, use Bitcoin dominance as one of many tools in your investment strategy, and always conduct thorough research before making decisions.
by Vestinda
14
XAUUSD Planning a Trip Down South?!Here we have a possible long term BEARISH analysis on Gold. Gold seems to be respecting this Falling Resistance that reared its face upon price reaching 2081 (May 4th) then declining to then retest this Resistance a 2nd time at 1953 (Sep. 1st) bringing us to the 3rd attempt at 1937 (Sep. 19th) Following this 3rd attempt, price has STEADILY declined into what looks to be an upcoming area of past Consolidation turned Support!! If price is unable to find footing in this area AND decides to break down past the PHR (Point of Hard Return) , I could see price possibly stretching down into the ranges of Last Fall! ~ {1730 - 1615}
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Novi_Fibonacci
Nasdaq/NAS100Analysis Report: Objective: Identifying potential buying levels for Nasdaq/Nas100. Current Level for Consideration: Considering a buy at the current market level. Preferred Clean Buying Levels: Buy at 14336.71 Potential 50% Retracement Zone: Buy at 13860.21 (50% retracement zone) Explanation: Objective Clarification: The goal is to identify favorable levels for buying opportunities in the Nasdaq/Nas100 market. Current Level for Consideration: Consider initiating a buy at the current market level. Preferred Clean Buying Levels: 14336.71: Identified as a cleaner level for potential buying, indicating a strategic entry point for a long position. Potential 50% Retracement Zone: 13860.21: Recognized as a 50% retracement zone, presenting an excellent buying opportunity for a long position.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Long
by CedricSkolo
$SPY 20% Up Under 10% downAs we assess the performance landscape for this year, it's imperative to focus on key metrics that underline the strength of our investment strategy. Notably, the S&P 500 Index, represented by the SPY ETF, has appreciated approximately 20% year-to-date. This solid growth trajectory reinforces the robustness of the current bull market. Furthermore, it's worth highlighting that market corrections have remained relatively contained, with pullbacks not exceeding a 10% decline. These controlled retracements are indicative of a market that, while exhibiting occasional volatility, is fundamentally strong. Our analytical framework projects specific price targets for SPY, which are delineated in the accompanying chart. These targets have been carefully calculated based on a variety of factors, including historical data, economic indicators, and market sentiment. In conclusion, while it's crucial to remain cautious and diversified, especially in a market that has demonstrated significant gains, the underlying metrics point toward a resilient market environment. We encourage you to continue to engage with us as we navigate these exciting market conditions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by AlgoTradeAlert
Next BTC ATH , What and WhenThe chart posted is very simple to understand. Bascially I have manually fitted a curve around the cycle highs and lows of bitcoin on a logarithmic scale and have measured the time it took for btc to tap the top curve once it has tapped the bottom curve, and it comes around 850 days approx. This measure estimates the next BTC high to be approx 112000 USD around mid of 2025. This curve also indicates the bottom is in for bitcoin at 15000 USD for this cycle , it can only be violated , in case of a black swan event like it did in march 2020.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by zakoraio
EURUSD Trade Idea with Key Fundamental Events:Trade Idea for EURUSD Bias: Very Bearish Overall Score: -12 Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: -3 The Commitment of Traders data for EURUSD is indicating a strong bearish sentiment among institutional traders. This points to an expectation of a weakening Euro relative to the Dollar among the major players in the market. Retail Sentiment: -1 Retail sentiment towards EURUSD is mildly bearish. As retail sentiment can sometimes act as a contrarian indicator, this mild bearish sentiment is in line with our overarching perspective. Seasonality: -1 Historically, the current period exhibits bearish tendencies for the EURUSD pair, which adds another layer of confirmation to our bearish outlook. Trend Reading: -2 The existing trend for EURUSD is downward. The pair seems to be experiencing continued bearish momentum. GDP Growth: -1 Recent data suggests that the Eurozone's GDP growth is underperforming, which could exert downward pressure on the Euro. Inflation: -2 Rising inflation within the Eurozone, without a corresponding aggressive response from the European Central Bank (ECB), might deter investment flows into the region. Unemployment: -1 Unemployment figures from the Eurozone are less than ideal, possibly leading to reduced consumer spending and a further drag on the Euro. Interest Rates: -1 The interest rate differentials are currently favoring the USD. With the possibility of the Federal Reserve being more hawkish in its stance compared to the ECB, we could see an influx of capital into the US, bolstering the USD against the Euro. Conclusion: Considering the negative scores across multiple categories, our trade idea for EURUSD leans strongly bearish. Traders might want to entertain shorting opportunities, always emphasizing the importance of risk management, stop loss placements, and regular market assessment for any sentiment shifts. EURUSD Trade Idea with Key Fundamental Events: Mon, Sep 25, 3:00pm: EUR German ifo Business Climate (85.7). Below previous reading. A decline suggests weakening business sentiment, supporting our bearish EUR view. Tue, Sep 26, 9:00pm: USD CB Consumer Confidence (105.5). Slightly below previous data, indicating potential USD weakness, but in the context of our overall view, may only offer short-term relief for EURUSD. Thu, Sep 28: EUR Inflation Data with German CPI and Spanish CPI releases. Both consistent with previous readings. They are unlikely to change the overall bearish EUR sentiment significantly. USD Final GDP q/q (2.2% at 7:30pm) is slightly improved, supporting the USD. Fri, Sep 29: USD Federal Reserve Chair Powell Speaks at 3:00am. Speeches from central bank leaders can introduce volatility. Any hawkish statements can further push EURUSD down. USD Economic Indicators later in the day, including Core PCE Price Index, may offer additional insights into USD strength. Conclusion: While some data points suggest potential short-term relief for EURUSD, the broader context remains bearish, given the overall scores and upcoming fundamental events.
Short
by Elite_Forex
Trade Idea for GBPUSD Bias: Very BearishTrade Idea for GBPUSD Bias: Very Bearish Overall Score: -12 Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: -3 The Commitment of Traders data shows a strong bearish sentiment among institutional traders. This suggests that those who have a deeper understanding of the market's mechanisms are heavily favoring the downside. Retail Sentiment: -1 Retail sentiment is somewhat bearish. Historically, retail sentiment can often be a contrarian indicator, so this mild bearish sentiment aligns with our primary view. Seasonality: -1 The current time of the year tends to show bearish tendencies for the GBPUSD based on historical patterns. Trend Reading: -2 The prevailing trend for GBPUSD is bearish, suggesting continued downside momentum. GDP Growth: -1 The recent data indicates that UK's GDP growth is lagging, which can put downward pressure on the GBP. Inflation: -2 The inflation situation in the UK is deteriorating, potentially indicating that the Bank of England might not be able to act aggressively to counteract this trend in the near term. Unemployment: -1 The unemployment figures are not favorable, potentially leading to decreased consumer spending and putting further pressure on the GBP. Interest Rates: -1 Interest rate differentials are favoring the USD. With the Federal Reserve potentially being in a more hawkish stance compared to the Bank of England, capital flows might be directed towards the US, thus strengthening the USD against the GBP. Conclusion: Given the overwhelmingly negative scores across a range of factors, our trade idea for GBPUSD is very bearish. Traders should consider potential short positions, keeping in mind to manage risk through stop losses and regularly monitoring market conditions for any changes in these factors.
Short
by Elite_Forex
Solana (SOL) -> New Altcoin SeasonMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Solana. During the year 2021 we saw a crazy rally of more than 25.000% on Solana and since the beginning of 2022 Solana perfectly dropped more than 90% towards the downside. Following this overall long term pump and dump trend I do expect another crazy pump after Solana broke out of the current triangle formation. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by basictradingtv
29