IPDAUsing IPDA, implied dealing range, Premium / Discount, Seasonality, and a Breaker to anticipate NQ's delivery over the course of the coming months.
Seasonality
BLUESTARCO is ready to breakout. 1. Blue star formed the flag pattern and ready to breakout.
2. In this sector Voltas, HAVELLS, POLYCAB, WHIRLPOOLS started performing Good.
3. Festive season may capture some revenues addition along with its peers.
4. reality sector boom also may capture some revenue.
BCH CONTINUATIONIf price closes above 200$ on the current 3 day candle, we can see a continuation towards 22$, but I tend to see only a small bullish continuation to 220 and then a strong bearish push towards 150. Only if price breaks above 230$ on the weekly timeframe, we can see strong bullish continuations towards 320 and 450$. A break below 190 from here already could make price drop towards 150$, but it would be pretty dangerous to trade from that level, as BCH could easily reverse and trade back inside 200-220 area.
Long term ideas for next period (Q4/2024 - Q2/2025)Long-term ideas for the next stage (Q4/2024 - Q2/2025).
Can check the Puell Multiple indicator to see timing good to buy.
Share your ideas in this comment box
BTC parallel channels and BTC Next HalvingWe added 4 ascending colored parallel channels in this chart for BTC, with the current BTC price near the middle of its lower channel, ATH and curent Bear Market Low lines and intersections of Low and High channels lines at the moment of the Next Halving at April 26, 2024 at 04:35:51 AM UTC.
BTC Long term scribbleIt's a scribble, not much to explain. But apparently I have to give a longer description so here you go.
USTECH 100 CFD MONTHLY MARKET MOVESObserve the importance of time in the market as it relates to monthly market moves coupled with dates of the month. Mid-Month as well as end of month are likely to be a reversal condition in the market. Last week of the month is normally a buy expansion model and first week of the month, the market is likely to retrace into a HTF POI before rallying. HTF bias married with monthly market moves always win. My expectation therefore would be for the market buy until end of month(observing 15250 level. If break above it will rally higher first before retracement) where it is likely to hit a reversal condition from the first of the month and retrace into a HTF POI before rallying. #StaySafe#TimeInMarket💙
need a pullback for sureit is not good to go with the opposite direction of the market but i want to make some risky profit in the coming pullback and as always risk management is the key
Ever wonder why Aug and Sep are weak months?Ever wonder why the market is historically weaker in August and September? On August 15 interest on treasuries is paid from the Fed "other reserves" account which appears to briefly tighten central bank liquidity (normally adverse to risk assets during the QE/QT era). On September 15 the final quarterly tax payment for the fiscal year is due, which seems to be preceded by a brief drawdown.
The combination of the 2 events this time of the year result in seasonal weakness. Looking at the years 2015 through 2022 we can observe that the market was:
trending up leading into August 75% of the time,
flat or down from 8/15 to 9/15 63% of the time, and
finished the year higher than the 9/15 close 87% of the time.
Additionally, since 1938 there are 14 years in which the market advances >10% through July that are followed by a negative August. They all finish the year higher, with an average rest of year performance of 9.9% (median 8.7%).
This history suggests that the earlier part of September is a stronger time to take profit, or trim/exit any positions, while after the 15th should be favorable to accumulate or start new positions.
Sources:
This is a link to ANG Traders, a seeking alpha author that did a study on years 2016 to 2022. His analysis is incredible.
seekingalpha.com
This is a link to Ed Clissolds twitter post with the prior years with S&P advancing >10% through July.
twitter.com
This is a link to the seasonality chart created by EW_T. These seasonality charts have a bar that represents % of the month in positive territory and a number at the bottom that is the average gain/loss.
www.tradingview.com
XSO.AX ~ Snapshot TA / ASX Small Ordinaries IndexChart mapping/analysis for ASX Small Ordinaries Index ASX:XSO
ASX Small Ords ETFs:
- ASX:MVS ASX:SSO ASX:ISO ASX:SMLL
Constituents (aggregate ETF holdings):
- ASX:ANN ASX:AUB ASX:BPT ASX:CNU ASX:CSR ASX:FLT ASX:ILU ASX:JBH ASX:LTR ASX:MTS ASX:NHC ASX:NSR ASX:ORA ASX:PME ASX:QUB ASX:SFR ASX:TLX ASX:VEA
CAPITALCOM:AU200 ASX:XJO
Beware the ides of MarchHe is a dreamer. Let us leave him. Pass.
'Tis not a matter of when, nor if; but simply, how deep ?
Time for Natural gas ?I have had the belief that Natural gas should mean reverse upwards. I own some Norwegian gas stocks (BW LPG and Avance Gas) which are performing very well. Why is this not following suit? I own it and currently -15% in performance. Ideas anyone?
XGD ~ Snapshot TA / ASX Gold Miners IndexASX All Ordinaries Gold Index
Constituents:
ASX:ALK ASX:EVN ASX:GOR ASX:NCM ASX:NST ASX:PRU ASX:RMS ASX:RSG ASX:SBM ASX:SLR ASX:WAF ASX:WGX
BTC 3 scenarios hello traders, regarding days left to next halving which suitable enough for a sharp move. We're much more interested in buying Bitcoin! It has been long since we bought bitcoin and we aim to keep most of them. here by buying and selling I mean increasing and decreasing our cryptocurrencies basket volume.
(for more information of halving read the related idea)
In case of trading buying over 31750 is suggested. Also a reaction to 25500 could be a good reason to buy BTC. We don't suggest to buy on bottom of the bullish channel, since the 31500 level is really strong.
If we see 25000 is well broken down, we will search for shorting reasons for only the next important level by half risk.
best regards, Ali signals
Update Gold 29/8In the last days of the month, we buy gold in 2 buy zones as shown below, and take profits at 1935-40.
And when you get there, set up 2 sell orders with 2 lower take profit levels. I still want to hold Gold for the long term at a lower price, so I continue to pay the market price 8-) 8-)
Coal Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Neutral-Bullish AccumulationNewcastle Thermal Coal Futures breaking out of short-term downtrend + Neutral-Bullish Accumulation around 78.6% Fib Retracement.
Still within larger downtrend after steep sell-off through later half of 2022 into 2023.
(Coal) embers likely re-igniting due to recent China stimulus measures & other macro-economic influences, TBC.
Highlighted preliminary Trading Range 174.05-129.
On watch for further price action development &/or break out of range in either direction.
Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers.
Futures: ICEEUR:NCF1! ICEEUR:NCF2!
ASX: ASX:WHC ASX:NHC ASX:YAL ASX:SMR ASX:TER
URA vs. U308 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Uranium Bull IndicatorPerformance comparison between Global X Uranium ETF versus U308 Futures.
One of many Momentum Indicators out there that track Bullish movements in Uranium Sector.
Uranium stocks haven't always been closely-correlated to Futures due to their "risk-on" nature...so when stocks start outperforming when Futures + other confluences are also rallying..
You might have a good ol' fashion Uranium Bull run on your hands.
Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers.
Futures: COMEX:UX1! COMEX:UX2!
ASX ETFs: ASX:ATOM ASX:URNM
US/OTC ETFs: OTC:SRUUF AMEX:URA NASDAQ:URNJ AMEX:URNM
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022.
Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement)
Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension)
Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes..
Boost/Follow appreciated.
Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2!
ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA
NYSE: NYSE:VALE
OG not finished with the moveIt's 2 a.m. so I'll be short on this one and go sleep. Vision gonna envision some pretty dreams.
So. I do not usually trade fan tokens but in the phase we're at right now, I feel like searching for for the exact scenarios, and this BINANCE:OGUSDT is one of them.
Pumpy-dumpy history, already gave me some add-ons to my PnL and is still repeating its own chart almost in the perfect way (such as BINANCE:WRXUSDT from one of my previous setups did).
Take a look on this chart. Now go left to April. We're now at the point of 16-17 April 23' and just looking for another 1-2 upward legs.
Less words.
Buy Zone is Green
Sell Zones are Red
Have a good trade. Or a good rest.
Bitcoin cycle theory - for my friends to look at in 6 years :)I have created this kind of chart in the past with some assumptions that were not exactly correct because I took into account the unit price of BTC and not the market cap of it.
This analysis and prediction is based on logarithmic theory and market cap actualization then divided by units in existence, which basically means the following:
BTC marketcap by years:
2013 - 10B
2017 - 100B (reached 250B due to over spike, will not happen again, price per unit should not have been more than $10k)
2021 - 1T (reached 1,17T with price unit of FWB:65K with cca 18M in circulation)
2025 - 10T (2023 data: 19,467,468 BTC in circulation, with cca 0,5M new BTC to be mined in two years taking into consideration halving from 6,25 to 3,125, gives us a baseline)
2029 - 100T
Taking into account that in 2025 there will be 20M BTC(more or less), the price point would be exactly at $500k per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the $350k region
Taking into account that in 2029 there will be 20,5M BTC (more or less), the price point would be at $4,8M per unit, BUT taking into account that market has grown and that there is a visible slowing down of the pace, skimmed prediction would then be sitting in the $2M region
Happy Gam(BL)ing!
EURUSD - Bullish Price Action Incoming?FX:EURUSD is currently forming a higher low on a higher timeframe. Since the last 6 months price has made a retracement of the same lenght before getting bullish and forming a new HH.
Expecting bullish price action and taking entry on 30 mins to catch the move!
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders on the DailyThe SPY (S&P 500 Index) resembles a quite clear Head & Shoulders Pattern which is generally bearish. The daily candle chart shows a right shoulder forming with a rejection from the $445 area. With this rejection and a continuation downwards, we could see a harder fall if this aligns with the left shoulder and follows the pattern.
The other main indices also follow a similar pattern formation and could follow with a market downturn. Watching that $445 level is key to see a confirmation retest and rejection downwards. Following the lower levels, some price targets would first be the neckline as shown on the chart posted. A break below the neckline could result in a fall of the S&P 500 and if following the complete Head & Shoulders we could be seeing a realistic price target of the $410-$420 area.
Other than technicals fundamentals are definitely quite alright for the market as of now. But maybe a little too alright in my opinion. We have seen a market melt up with interest rates still sky-high resulting in more risk-ON investing rather than investing in CD's or Treasuries offering up to 5.5%.
The Greed being shown in this market is definitely visible and is something to keep note of if we break the neckline. Fear & Panic Selling could most definitely occur in this type of situation especially considering the market rally we've seen this summer.
Seasonally the fall has been quite bearish for the markets overall, and as we head into September & October we could see a similar trend to the past, but nothing is sure.
Lastly, in September / October Student Loan Repayments are resuming which could suck out millions if not billions of dollars from the United States economy as young adults chip away at debt and sacrifice spending on goods & services. This will most definitely be a crucial effect on the economy and could send markets downwards.
Keep an eye out for this pattern to play out... Definitely something to watch as we move in to Fall!
Thanks
#Bitcoin Fractals ComparisonBasically, when CRYPTOCAP:BTC is compared to past cycles a fractal is placed from the beginning of the year, in general, it is useful and shows seasonality well.
But I like the alternative version of the overlay when we take the fractal from the moment of the change of phases of the bitcoin cycle when bitcoin goes from the bear phase, reaches the bottom, and goes into the accumulation phase before the bull run.
As can be seen with the 2nd option on the right on the chart, in this case, it is quite clear how the wedges broke through at the same time. And the crash of Bitfinex coincides with the crash of FTX.
