Seasonality
it is about the time don't you think?risk reward 1 to 609
risking 16.67% to make 10,150%
might be the trade of my life.
do your own due diligence.
go deep into the technology.
The Fed Cuts Balance Sheet Runoff by 80% - BULLISH!RISK-ON 🚨
I’m seeing so many people incorrectly analyzing the September 2019 emergency repo OMOs, which were short-term liquidity injections from the Fed, and then comparing it to the price of BTC going down, before QE officially started in March 2020 because of the pandemic.
Here’s what really happened.
September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling ~$100B out of markets as large corporations paid the IRS and funds flew into the TGA.
Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities.
During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance.
Unfortunately, the Fed was flying blind and did not have a hard number estimate for “ample reserves” in the banking system.
These reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread.
This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations.
SOUND FAMILIAR !?
The US just resolved its CR to avoid a government shutdown, and they will be refilling the TGA by issuing new T-Bills. The reverse repo facility is also nearly drained.
Today, we heard the Fed will be reducing its securities runoff from $25B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on April 1st, an 80% adjustment.
One of the main drivers is they wanted to get ahead of another 2019-style repo crisis (although they won’t say this), rather than being reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs once again.
Now to go back to my original point with people saying the Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff is a big nothingburger based on BTC price action in 2019.
BTC dumped because of the repo crisis, NOT because markets needed QE.
By early 2020, the liquidity crisis was resolved, and BTC pumped ~45% before the pandemic hit in March and nuked the chart.
Proof is in the pudding - just look at the 2017 bull market.
QT started in October 2017, and the market ripped until early 2018.
The Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff by 80% is definitely a signal of risk-on for educated market participants, as it leaves more reserves in the financial system, which gives banks more liquidity to loan the market.
i.e. M2 go up.
But keep listening to your favorite large accounts who are all of a sudden macro gurus, what do I know 🤓
USDCAD Short Setup – Potential Top Formation & Seasonal WeaknessTechnical: USDCAD has stalled in recent weeks, signaling a potential topping pattern. A recent break of the short-term trend suggests a deeper correction may follow. Key resistance is at 1.4355 , offering a favourable risk-reward short opportunity.
Fundamental: The U.S. dollar remains weak, with commercial participants showing little interest in buying. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is seeing increased accumulation, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
Seasonal: Historically, from March 24 – April 30 , USDCAD has declined 76.2% of the time over the past 21 years, with an average drop of 1.30%.
Trade Idea:
Sell: 1.4355
Stop Loss: 1.4551
Target: 1.3948
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NAS100 Potential Intraday Shorts (Technical Analysis)Technical Outlook:
The price action since late February has been decisively bearish, characterized by a significant decline throughout March, indicating a clear mid-term distribution phase. We observed a recent rejection from a 4H and 1H supply zone (which fell within a pronounced drop-base-drop pattern). Notably, the most recent downward push failed to establish new lows. This follows a period of rapid decline with minimal bullish resistance. This suggests two possibilities:
Bulls are strategically allowing sellers to exhaust themselves before a potential countermove.
The prevailing bearish momentum is overpowering any attempts at bullish recovery.
Trading Considerations:
The daily candle has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming strong selling pressure. My trading strategy involves waiting for a price retracement back into the identified supply zone. This pullback would serve to fill existing price imbalances and trigger resting orders above, providing an opportunity to enter short positions with improved risk-to-reward ratios on lower timeframes (LTFs). Currently, there are no indications of significant bullish manipulation. Therefore, I anticipate continued downward momentum this week. It's plausible that we might witness a final bearish surge coinciding with the FOMC announcement before a potential bullish reversal - a hypothetical scenario based on technical analysis.
Final Notes:
The previous instance of the price trading this far below the 200 EMA occurred in December 2022, marking the culmination of a year-long bearish trend. While we are currently only one month into this downward movement, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. Although a bullish rally is possible, I will maintain a bearish bias and focus on short opportunities until a clear bullish reversal pattern emerges on the 4H and 1H timeframes. When such a reversal occurs, we will be ready to capitalize on the subsequent upward trend! ;)
Undervalued Stock TTD The Trade Desk buy IdeaDo not believe me when I say this stock is undervalued, do your own research.
Do not believe me when I say this stock has shown very high properbility for good upside moves from around end of March until mid of August for the last 10 years, do your own research.
Good upmove today, I am in.
Leave a like or comment, hit the bell, eat some birthday cake, and love what you are doing!
Cheers!
Short Idea on EURNZDBased On
- Williams POIV Divergence on 4H
- Interest rate and real rate differential increased
- Cycle analysis and quantitative data
- Overvalued Conditions
COOKIE’s Sweet Potential: Bullish Continuation Ahead?COOKIE 🍪 has shown strong momentum, and if the bull run isn’t over, we could see another leg up. Price action is forming a structure that suggests further upside potential, with key resistance levels in sight. If volume supports the move, a breakout could lead to new highs. 📈
Watching for confirmation signals—higher lows, strong demand zones, and bullish indicators lining up. A healthy pullback could offer prime entries before the next push. Stay cautious, but don’t ignore the signs of continuation.
I’m bullish on $COOKIE. What’s your take? Let’s discuss potential targets and invalidation points! 🍪
US30 Bullish BiasFundamentals:
Valuation:
Undervalued on the 30d - 13d
Between the mean/Undervalued on 10d (projecting one more drop to undervalued on the 10 days)
Seasonality:
Following the price well. But I've explained that the price of Dow Jones reached a High 2-3 weeks before seasonality Tool predicted.
As per 5y 10y 15y seasonality, the bottom of US30 could be this week, or early next week. Whether we see another drop is something we can't tell. But Seasonality tool was late as per the example I've showed you on Trade Station, could be late this time around, and we could find a bottom within the next 5-6 trading days!
Technically: I've explained why I prefer the lower Daily Demand Zone.
The Demand Zone we are currently at - is where the Equilibrium lies as per Fib Tool - therefore not a good buy level!
Lastly, can we see one more heavy move down with A -3.5% on FOMC this Wednesday? We don't know, but it happened in December and it could happen this week!
Q4 effects on BitcoinTIME BASED LONG TERM BITCOIN SPECULATION
First of all,
This analysis is not about to tell you that the bottom is in or not, this is a fun theory which has no confirmation for the future.
As i see every time Bitcoin enters the November zone, it starts to make a bigger move.
In this analytics maybe not the november month is what matters, it can be analysed by quarters or yearly periods too, but i chose the november zone.
2014 november: (A)
-top of the bull market
2015 (little bit after) november: (B)
-bottom of the bear market
2016 november: (C)
-breakout and retest to the fibonacci zones then rally
2017 (little bit after) november: (A)
-Top of the bull market
2018 (little bit after) november: (B)
-bottom of the bear market
2019 november: (C)
-breakout and retest to the fibonacci zones then rally
2021 november: (A)
-Top of the bull market
2022 november: (B)
-Bottom of the bull market?
We can also identify a gap between C and A period because the rally doesn't end in the next november cycle.
This analytics does not say that the bottom is in, but it can be already in or days/weeks away from the current price.
The structure has to be analysed by self, and this chart could give us a clue where should we see the price a year after.
The price should be in the 30k region to see a retest or a breakout from the zone.
in 2024 we should see 30k usd / BTC, but we don't know that if we will have a rally before it.
Hope i gave you something interesting.
Thanks for reading and have a nice trading carrier:)
(Always bullish on BTC)
Short Idea on Nasdaq (NQ1!)- Stop loss : 22771.25
- Profit target : 20507.75
Based on seasonality,valuation, volume profile levels
M2 GLOBAL LIQUIDITY COMING TO SAVE THE DAYDoes the market look dead?
Wanna know what brings it back?
PRICE.
Wanna know what brings back price?
LIQUIDITY.
Steady lads, deploying more capital 🚢
DFMGI - DFM Index - Seasonal Trends [Good News!]Good Day, Trader!
Our seasonal analysis of the DFM Index over the past 10 years reveals that March has historically been bearish more than 70% of the time.
However, there’s good news on the horizon— April has shown a bullish trend in over 70% of the past decade!
For a complete view of the seasonal and cyclic trend analysis of the DFM Index since inception, check out the full chart.
Happy Trading!
Buy idea on USD/SEKBased on
- Cycle analysis and quantitative data
- Strong Demand Zone
- Undervalued Conditions
$SOL Dumps 60% - Is it Over !?CRYPTOCAP:SOL DUMPED OVER 60% ‼️
That’s after a 3,500% pump
from the bear market low in ’22.
Is it over!?
TL;DR - NO.
This is common after such an insane pump.
SOL Dec ’20 - May ’21
5,700% pump
71% correction
then another 1,290% pump
Let’s look at previous cycles with $ETH.
Dec ’16 - June ’17
6,380% pump
67% correction
then another 916% pump
Dec ’18 (bear market low) - May ’21
4,860% pump
62% correction
then another 185% pump
So you see my fine feathered friends,
there’s nothing new here.
Targets still remain $700-850 🤠
Don't Panic! Good times around the corner for BitcoinGlobal M2 Money Supply
Global M2 has been leading BTC price action very closely by 10 weeks.
Roughly 12 days from today for upward price action to strongly resume, if the correlation holds.
A wick down to 73-74k is nothing to worry about. In terms of time we are likely very close to the bottom, if it's not already in.
You can use the indicator on your chart for free below.
Shout out to @Mik3Christ3ns3n for the original indicator.
Dow Jones: A Make-or-Break Buy Setup with Smart Money BackingDow Jones Industrial Average - Buy Setup
Technical: U.S. markets have struggled recently due to uncertainty over tariffs imposed by President Trump. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken key support levels, the Dow remains resilient, holding the critical 41,648 support. A break below would confirm a large double-top pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. This is a pivotal moment. The rebound from overnight lows is encouraging, but with the U.S. CPI release tomorrow, caution is warranted. While speculative, COT and seasonal data favour a short-term move higher.
Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increasing long interest in the Dow, suggesting "smart money" accumulation.
Seasonal: Historically, from March 12 – May 2, the Dow has posted gains 84% of the time, averaging +3.68% over the past 25 years.
Setup:
Entry: 41,800 – 42,000
Stop Loss: 41,285 (below the Nov 2024 low at 41,648)
Target: 44,290
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD (SPX)Clear corralation between EURUSD and SPX (s&p500) movement. Every time EURUSD is in all time high or all time low in the last years shows a clear correlation between the EURUSD and SPX, working EURUSD as anticipated indicator on the next trend of SPX. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! THIS IS A REFERENCE ANALYSIS!
#Bitcoin $BTC OutlookCRYPTO:BTCUSD is testing a 2 years old uptrend channel lower wedge extending since 2023 where #BTC price was ~$25k. The wedge is ranging between ~$80k : ~$70k.
Key levels:
~$79k: kind of imminent today.
~$73.5k: The first and the nearest core demand, smart money is concentrated at this level "A bounce is anticipated from here"
~$70k: Is the last bulls haven, breakingdown will unlock the ~$60k mark.
Check my previous BTC analysis, I've been calling for the ~$80k : ~$70k since ATHs.
#AhmedMesbah
$ETH #Ethereum AnalysisCRYPTO:ETHUSD is currently testing a significant 5 years old lower wedge around ~$2000. Violating this wedge will drive the price down to ~$1600 and ~$1100. A bounce will push the price back to test ~$2500 and ~$2800.
DYOR before reacting to the market.
#AhmedMesbah
Are altcoins ready to take off ? Hello Traders! 🐺
You might have noticed that I haven't posted in a while—so, why the silence?
Over the past two weeks, we've seen massive market manipulation by whales and major players. In times like these, it's often safer to step back, observe, and let the charts reveal the market’s true direction before making any moves.
But now, I genuinely believe the dump is over. Looking at the BTC.D chart, it's currently forming a bearish pattern right at a key resistance level. That alone is enough for me to say: I'm bearish on BTC.D —and by extension, bullish on altcoins !
Why? Because a rising wedge on the weekly BTC.D chart is a strong signal of a bear trap, suggesting money could soon start flowing into altcoins.
Additionally, in the TOTAL3 chart (which excludes BTC & ETH), we see a massive cup and handle pattern on the weekly timeframe. The price has already broken the neckline and is now accumulating above the support line, potentially gearing up to break past its all-time high and push toward a $3 trillion market cap —which, in my opinion, is a conservative target.
I hope you find this idea valuable! Don’t forget to like and follow for more insights. Your support means the world! 🚀
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
USDT dominance. (USDC is similar). 03 2025Time frame 1 week. Crypto market dominance to % USDT. I showed this for the first time on 03 2022, nothing has changed since then, everything is the same and the logic is identical.
USDT dominance. USDT pumping indicator to the market 03 2022
USDT dominance. Indicator of USDT pumping to and from the market 05 2022
✔️Stablecoin dominance is falling — the market is growing.
✔️Stablecoin dominance is growing — the market is falling.
It cannot be otherwise (capital movement), until the time when ETFs with the US dollar are not massively introduced and popular, they will draw some of the liquidity to themselves. Which will slightly change the logic of this trend itself. Comparable, in terms of impact on the market, as before the introduction of trading pairs to alts/USDT instead of BTC/alts (everyone was like that). Until then, USDT was needed.
You need to understand that the main " transitional dollar for the people ", that is, USDT , - reflects the trend of all stablecoins. In particular, the main "competitor" - USDC, all the others (a temporary phenomenon) do not matter. Until USDT exists and can be used to track the direction of the money flow, that is, the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
In 2022 09, I also showed this game of liquidity flow into ideas with the combined dominance of USDC + USDT + BTC chart. But this is already a complication, everything is already visible and clear on the dominance of USDT.
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. Correlation 2022 09
Remember, any stablecoin is an alt. The experience with UST (Moon Falling into an Urn) has taught many not to equate stablecoins to a real dollar.
The price stability of any stablecoin depends only on people's faith in its stability. This faith is projected by marketing activity, and first of all by the real capital that stands behind the creators. Everything conceived and implemented has a beginning and an end.
Bitcoin dominance to alts.
I will duplicate my latest idea on Bitcoin dominance here once again. I used it before (it was rational), before 2020 (I used to make a lot of ideas about local zones as triggers for market reversals). Now it doesn't do much. But I see people are fixated on this, not understanding the essence, and why it was so effective before and childishly clear when the market would be reversed (there were no pairs to USDT, but only alts to BTC).
Before 2018 (100% efficiency), before 2020 (partial), the dominance of Bitcoin to other alts was such an indicator of the pump/dump of the market. As it was the main direction of money flow. Almost all alts were traded only to Bitcoin.
Доминация BTC к альткоинам. Доминация стейблкоинов и памп рынка. 07 2022
Have a plan and understand what you are doing, observing money and risk management. As a result, you will be calm and satisfied with your profit from the market, if you are an adequate person.
Alt dominance.
And this is the idea of training/work (understanding the reversal zones of the crypto market of secondary trends) in 2023 on alts. That is, the dominance of alts without stablecoins, bitcoin and ether, which take away most of the market capitalization as a whole. The dominance is growing, naturally money is pouring into alta and vice versa. There are also similar ideas (look for publications in 2023) for certain groups of assets. That is, the point is to catch the hype, by groups of candy wrappers or, on the contrary, the threshold of stopping the flow of money into another hype.
BTC dominance to altcoins. Dominance of stablecoins and market pump . 07 2022
Without pain, there is no way for someone to gain benefits in the speculative market. Who will experience pain and who will gain benefits depends only on the qualities of the person who decided to engage in trading. That is, the totality of his positive/negative qualities that project his actions in the market. Everything is extremely simple and honest.
Dollar Index.
There are a series of interrelated ideas (three, detailed explanation), about the dollar index, that is, the larger cyclicality of the markets in general, and the crypto market as a small projection. Also, all publications of 2022-2023.
DXY Dollar Index USA. Recession and Pump/Dump Market Indicator 09 2022
DXY (Dollar Index) and Pump/Dump BTC. Market Cycles . 09 2022
End of bull cycle Sept 2025?Will the 4 year cycle repeat again?
From the past historical data looks like the end of bull run of this cycle will end up in end of September 2025 plus/minus few weeks.
Based on the simple measurements. see the chart.
