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Seasonality

Front-loaded Exports has fuelled rally in Corn. Can it last?After President Trump instituted broad new tariffs on 2nd April 2025, corn futures initially wavered but then rallied sharply. While this may seem counterintuitive given tariffs' disruptive impact on trade, near-term support for corn comes from front-loaded U.S. exports, a weaker dollar, and lower-than-expected domestic supply. However, prices are likely to face downward pressure as the U.S. harvest season approaches. This paper examines the short-term bullish factors, outlines the potential risks ahead, and presents a hypothetical trade setup involving a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures. CME Corn futures gapped lower on 3rd April but quickly recovered, jumping 4.5% over the next three trading days to six-week highs by 9th April. This move aligns with the typical spring seasonal trend, as corn often firms in late spring during planting & strong demand season. Surging Export Commitments Amid Tariffs Export commitments have surged post-tariff announcement. USDA reports that U.S. exporters had already booked about 85% of the 2024/25 season target by early April, according to Reuters , well above the 5‐year average. In the week ending 3rd April, net U.S. corn sales hit ~40.2 million bushels, reflecting heavy front-loading. Large private sales continue: for example, in early April exporters announced a 9.4-million-bushel sale of 2024/25 corn to Spain. These front-loaded sales (especially to Mexico & Europe) suggest buyers are rushing to secure supply before possible trade disruptions. Overall, extraordinarily strong export pace and large “flash” sales are underpinning the market. Supply is Weaker than Initially Thought USDA’s April WASDE cut U.S. 2024/25 ending stocks to just 1.465 billion bushels – a 75 million bushels reduction – implying a stocks/use ratio around 9.6%. For context, that ratio is near multi-decade lows for corn. The USDA simultaneously raised exports to 2.55 billion bushels, a full 100 million bushels above the previous estimate. On the supply side, USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 2025) projected 95.3 million corn acres for 2025, roughly 5% higher than 2024, above expectations (highlighted by Mint Finance in a previous paper ). This suggests that while near-term stocks remain stressed the situation is likely to improve drastically following the harvest. Weaker Dollar Supports Increased Corn Exports A key bullish factor for U.S. corn exports is the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar. After the tariff announcement, the trade-weighted dollar tumbled – hitting fresh lows (e.g. a 10-year low versus the Swiss franc). Through April 10, the dollar was down ~2–3% on the week. A weaker dollar makes U.S. corn cheaper for overseas buyers, supporting export competitiveness. With dollar at multi-year lows, U.S. corn is more attractive globally, partly offsetting any Chinese retaliatory tariffs. COT and Options Data Managed-money funds have dramatically pared back their long corn bets since the beginning of March. CFTC COT data show net long positions peaking around 364,000 contracts in early February, then plunging to ~54,000 by the 8th April report. However, the pace of decline has slowed dramatically over the past few weeks and seems to be signalling an end of the cutback by asset managers. Interestingly, despite the tariff introduction (2/April) and the WASDE release (10/April), implied volatility (IV) moderated. IV has since normalized from the spike observed in March. During this period, skew also declined, reaching a negative value on 8th April - indicating that put options briefly became more expensive than calls. Although this trend has since reversed, skew remains near its lowest levels in 2025, suggesting sustained interest in put options among market participants. Source: CME CVOL OI shift over the past week also signals a cautious tone despite the rally. Near term options have seen an increase in put OI, suggesting participants remain cautious despite the rally. Source: CME QuikStrike Hypothetical Trade Setup While bullish factors have driven a sharp rally in corn prices over the past two weeks, there are dark clouds on the horizon. Tariffs risk disrupting trade and as most importers have already loaded up on US corn, they could slow the pace of future purchases. Additionally, a downbeat seasonal trend along with an expected bumper harvest signal that prices could reverse sharply from here. On the technical front, momentum remains solidly bullish but approaching a potential overbought level amid a slowing bullish trend. Corn prices remain pressured from a bumper harvest expected in September. Along with expected trade disruptions and a slowdown in the pace of US exports, prices are likely to decline during the summer. Regardless, prices remain bullish in the near term from a weakening dollar and near-term front loading. To express views on these converging trends, investors can deploy a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures consisting of a long position on the near-term May contract (MZCK2025) and a short position on the September contract (MZCU2025). A hypothetical trade setup providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x is mentioned below: A calendar spread on CME Micro Corn Futures is highly capital efficient with the above trade requiring maintenance margin of just USD 23 as of 15/April. The position remains protected from near-term price increase but benefits from the eventual price decline in September during harvest season. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZC1!
by mintdotfinance
2
0x Idea speaks for itself. We're currently in 'PROVEN BUY ZONE' with past returns well above 6x. This is not financial advice nor any indicator or promise of future gains, however... It's undeniable that within last 5.5 years this infrastructure protocol gave plenty of opportunities and there are no fundamentals (known to me) that should negatively impact potential gains of min. 2x from trigger range within next 12M. At the moment chart has left the trigger range, but it usually takes time before it develops desired structure for a move up. Personally, I'll be looking to make a decision around range top as LTF show confluence area around $0.228-$0.22 and lower, at $0.209. For those with 'more sophisticated' pallet for a tighter entries, there's a range low to hope for expanding further 30% to the downside. Worth to come back to this EOY to reconcile.
Long
by YesChill
Bitcoin Cyclical Pattern Analysis: 2017 vs 2025-2026The charts provide compelling evidence of fractal patterns between Bitcoin's 2017 bull run and the current 2025 cycle, revealing both striking similarities and meaningful differences in market behavior. Key Similarities Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements: Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025) Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case) Key Differences Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to 2017 Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements: First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half Technical Analysis Support This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators: Bollinger Bands would show: Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts 2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate: Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance 2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes Predictive Value This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons: Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns. Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns. Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate: The current cycle extending into mid-2026 One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction A final explosive move of approximately 125-150% Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes. This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rathernotsay21
QTUM May Surprise You All (3D Analysis)Qtum has formed a rectangle in weekly time period. Whenever it reachs the bottom, always turned back to gather upside liquidty till now. The other interesting thing is, when Qtum first went upwards for liquidty, it took over 2 years to gather all remaining short liqudations. When it did again, it took less than a year. So the scale of time for gathering liquidty is squezing. If Qtum can stay above the bottom of the rectangle, I believe there is a chance for %160 profit in long term. There is not even need for a leverage. -%20 down here means that this coin is set for going hell and no way for recover. But, there is %160 profit chance. The question is, are you willing to take that risk? Cause I will. Thanks for reading.
Long
by vs_sayin
EURUSD - Medium-term analysis of the euroThe weekly order flow is bearish and the daily is bullish. But let's take a closer look at the EUR from the monthly timeframe: On the monthly timeframe, the price has hit the middle of the swing structure and has also filled the FVG. Regardless of the seasonal tendencies that slightly favor the monthly bullish candle, on the weekly timeframe, the price has hit an order block last week and has gathered liquidity at equal levels below this order block. With all these interpretations and signs that I see, although the daily timeframe has bullish order flow, I think the price can move down from this point (unless Trump gets naughty) and and target external liquidity on March 26. I predict that the April monthly candle will close as a doji. Everything is indicated on the chart. This analysis will be updated in the future. Be profitable
Short
by alixjey
EURAUD, Bullish Bias, Fundamental and Technical AnalysisFundamental Analysis 1. Seasonality shows bullish momentum in EURAUD from 10 Apr to Mid of May 2. COT data shows net positions reduction in AUD while Increasing in EUR 3. Overall score of EUR is bullish and AUD is bearish Technical Analysis 1. EURAUD broke 2 year Rectangular consolidation box 2. strong breakout appear 3. Bulls are in charge 4. Waiting for retest of breakout for entry 5. 1st buy 1.74 with Sl 1.704, 2nd buy if SL hit of 1st buy, entry @ 1.68 with SL 1.634 increase risk to 2%
Long
by itsrohansaeed
1
Long EURNZD – Seasonal, Fundamentals & Technical ConfluenceWe are entering a long position on EURNZD, capitalizing on a powerful confluence of: Seasonal EUR strength + NZD weakness (April 10 – May 15) A clear bullish market structure (CHoCH, HH/HL) A clean Fibonacci retracement entry at 0.5 Strong macro divergence, with NZD exogenous conditions deteriorating Macro & Seasonal Context EUR enters a strong seasonal uptrend from April 10 to end of month NZD shows seasonal weakness from April 15 onward NZD’s exogenous model score worsened to -12 in April While NZD LEI and endo improved, it remains structurally weak Timing Best execution: on pullback to 1.9373 zone, ideally between April 10–15, aligned with seasonal entry window.
Long
by wajahatarif
a breakdown of the 6 month channel "On the yearly chart, gold is near its trading high, and on the 6-month chart, it's near a support floor. There's a high probability of the support breaking." Here's a slightly more formal way to phrase it, which might be used in a trading context: "On the annual timeframe, gold is trading close to its resistance peak, while the 6-month chart shows it nearing a support level. The likelihood of this support being breached is quite high."
TVC:GOLDShort
by sepehrariamehr007
1
Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction) 💡 This trading idea is based on analyzing market reactions to news and tweets from influential figures — especially in the context of cryptocurrencies and stocks prone to speculative spikes. 📊 Core Strategy: The model tracks sudden price movements triggered by public statements (e.g., tweets from Elon Musk, breaking news, etc.). After the initial reaction, a retracement or continuation pattern often forms, which can be used to enter a trade. 🧠 How to use it: 1. Monitor the news flow or social media activity related to the asset. 2. Identify the initial impulse on the chart (high volume, sharp movement). 3. Wait for consolidation or a minor pullback. 4. Enter on breakout or bounce, using a tight stop-loss. 📌 Best suited for high-volatility assets with frequent hype triggers (e.g., DOGE, TSLA, BTC).
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by elukonina
EURUSD, Bullish Bias, Fundamental and Technical AnalysisFundamental Analysis 1. Endogenous factors of EURO is getting better while USD is down 2. Seasonality shows EURO bullish in April while USD bearish 3. increased pressure of interest rate cut in USD in also leading towards DXY bearish 4. COT data shows net increase in EUR and decrease in USD 5. Sentiments shows bullish in EUR 11/8, while USD is 4/5. 6. LEI, Endogenous and Exogenous factors all in favor of Bullish momentum in EURUSD. Technical Analysis 1. Cup and Handle Formation 2. Breakout appeared 3. Breakout Retest 4. Buy in parts i. Long 1% at current price ii. Long 1% @ 1.09017 5. Stop loss below Handle 6. Projection Target 1.165 7. Take profit on Major resistance levels
Long
by itsrohansaeed
ETH Is Oversold Like Never Before !Hello Traders 🐺 In the recent week, we saw a massive long position wipeout, especially in the stock market. However, despite all the rumors, BTC held itself at these levels and is still inside a falling wedge pattern. If you don't know what I’m talking about, you can check my last idea about it. But ETH! In my opinion, this is a huge discounted price for ETH. You know why? 1_ Monthly RSI is currently at 25, which means we’re in an extremely oversold situation, and this usually means bulls are about to come back. Yes — we have all the signs of a reversal from here: (A): BTC.D RSI is at an all-time high and forming a bearish divergence, meanwhile: (B): ETH/BTC is extremely oversold right now. (C): BTC itself has formed a falling wedge pattern right above the weekly Cup & Handle neckline support! Guess what? If you zoom in a little bit on the daily chart, you can see there’s a pattern to break, and price is currently too close to the edge of it — which means time is ticking for ETH, and we are about to see an explosive move. Probably to the upside, because of all the signs we’ve talked about above. I hope you enjoyed this idea — and as always, don’t forget our goal: 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, But almost always profitable 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Long
by Kiu_Coin
2
why Robinhood’s stock ($HOOD) could be considered bullish:Analyst Upgrades : Robinhood has received positive upgrades from analysts, with a target price suggesting a significant upside. The company's growth in digital wealth management, AI-powered investing, and new banking features contributes to these bullish forecasts. Strategic Investments : High-profile investors, such as Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, have increased their stake in Robinhood, signaling strong confidence in its future growth potential. Product Diversification: The company continues to expand its services, with new offerings like Robinhood Strategies, an affordable robo-advisor, which is expected to attract a broader customer base seeking wealth management solutions. Positive Analyst Sentiment: Robinhood has an average "Buy" recommendation from analysts, reflecting general market optimism and the stock's positive outlook over the next 12 months. Strong Earnings Growth: Robinhood's robust revenue growth rate (over 58% in the last 12 months) reflects its expanding market share and the potential for continued financial success. Analyst Price Targets: Multiple analysts have set a price target for Robinhood with significant upside potential, indicating that there is room for further price appreciation in the coming year. Market Positioning: Following political shifts, Robinhood's stock has benefited from increased interest in cryptocurrency trading and favorable market conditions, showing how external factors can favor its performance. Technological Advancements: Robinhood’s investment in AI tools like Robinhood Cortex enhances its platform’s value proposition, improving user experience and engagement, which could lead to increased retention and growth. Diversified Revenue Streams: Robinhood’s move into banking, offering high-yield savings accounts, allows the company to tap into new revenue streams, reducing its reliance on traditional brokerage commissions. Favorable Market Sentiment: Robinhood is seen as part of a broader trend of stocks benefiting from shifts in market sentiment, particularly around the "Trump trade," showing how political and economic cycles can impact stock performance positively. These factors together suggest a promising outlook for Robinhood’s stock, positioning it for continued growth and potential upside.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by Zenjaycfa
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD. Historical Peaks & Reversals Examining past DXY cycles, we see: 969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s. 1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend. 2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies. 2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal? Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro. Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally. Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally. With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
TVC:DXYShort
by adiyatcoto
EUR/HUF: Positioning for a Probable Bullish Trend ShiftBig Picture Context Currencies, like any market, move in cycles driven by macroeconomic forces, capital flows, and investor psychology. The EUR/HUF exchange rate has been in an uptrend since mid-2023, reflecting a broader structural shift. The key question now is whether this trend continues or if we see a meaningful reversal. Looking at the data, we see that price has pulled back to a critical support zone (396-402 HUF). This is where buyers previously stepped in, making it a high-probability area for renewed strength. Meanwhile, resistance levels exist at 409.5 HUF, 411.75 HUF, and 420.53 HUF, with an ultimate target near 434.45 HUF. What the Market Is Telling Us Liquidity & Positioning: A volume spike signals increased market activity. This is often a sign that larger players are repositioning. Momentum & Trend: Higher lows and price support at moving averages indicate that bullish sentiment remains intact. Sentiment & Reflexivity: If buyers step in at support, it could reinforce the uptrend, drawing in more participants and accelerating price movement. Game Plan: Managing Risk & Reward Entry Zone: 396-402 HUF (buy into strength if support holds). Profit Targets: First milestone: 409.5 HUF (short-term test of resistance). Second milestone: 420.5 HUF (trend continuation). Final milestone: 434.5 HUF (full breakout scenario). Stop-Loss: Below 382 HUF, where the bullish thesis breaks down. Principles Applied Markets are a function of supply and demand, shaped by human behavior. We’re looking at probabilities, not certainties. The key is risk-adjusted decision-making—placing asymmetric bets where upside outweighs downside. If the support holds, the next move up is likely. If it fails, we step aside and reassess.
Long
by Vitezabraham
AAVE Longterm pickNot going to dive too deep, but I genuinely believe DEFI is set to explode in the future! AAVE is definitely one of my favorites, along with UNI and a couple of others that are on my radar. Anyway, Looking at the long-term Fibonacci targets, they suggest (850-1300-1750) will happen eventually. I’m not sure how long it will take, but I’m all about keeping my eyes on the prize! What are your thoughts? Let’s get a discussion going! Don’t forget to like and share! 🚀💥
Long
by Cosmicbag
Here's Why I'm Bullish on TSLA: Smart Money is Buying...Here's Why I'm Bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA Multi-Timeframe Analysis Using Larry Williams' Methods After a significant downtrend, NASDAQ:TSLA is presenting multiple bullish signals based on Larry Williams' methodology. The weekly and daily timeframes are aligning for a potential reversal opportunity with clearly defined risk parameters. Weekly Timeframe Analysis The weekly chart reveals several key bullish indicators: - The COT Proxy Index shows commercials are buying at significantly higher levels compared to 6 months ago, 1 year ago, and 3 years ago. - Seasonality patterns have reached a turning point, now indicating the beginning of an uptrend phase - The WillVal indicator shows NASDAQ:TSLA is currently undervalued at multiple securities (DXY, QCCH, ZBLU all showing "Under") - ADX reading above 60 (currently at 62.42) signals the existing downtrend is likely exhausting and nearing completion Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily chart, we're seeing initial confirmation signals but still waiting for the optimal entry setup: - The general market has created a Rally Day, and we're now watching for a Follow Through Day to confirm the new uptrend - Price structure requires further confirmation through a change of character before entry - The ProGo indicator has already turned positive, providing an early bullish signal - Williams %R is showing oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce - We need the Large Traders index to turn its slope upward for additional confirmation Entry Strategy I'm looking for one of these entry triggers: - Primary : First pullback after change of character , using Williams %R for precise timing - Alternative : Entry on first pullback after price moves above the WillTrend line - Aggressive option : Entry if price breaks above the $245 resistance level Profit Targets & Risk Management Targets: - First target: $327 (1.27 Fibonacci level) - Second target: $390 (Larry Williams Target Shooter -> 2.00 Fibonacci level ) Risk Management: - Initial stop loss: $228 or 120% of ATR(3) from entry point - Once in profit, trailing stop based on price closes at WillTrend levels The confluence of indicators across timeframes suggests a significant reversal potential in NASDAQ:TSLA , but waiting for daily chart confirmation will provide a higher probability setup with clearly defined risk parameters. DISCLAIMER This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The ideas and strategies presented should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation. This content is not financial advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or to engage in any specific investment strategy. All investment carries risk, including the possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment. Past performance of securities, including the patterns, signals, and indicators discussed, is not indicative of future results. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information presented. Each investor should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Trading Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock involves significant risks that may not be appropriate for all investors. You should only invest funds that you can afford to lose.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradeVizion