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Seasonality

Resurrection: SolanaSentiment for SOL was at bottom since FTX collapse. Solana devs, DeFi veterans, newbies and whole tokenholder community start to rebuild and innovate despite all the hate thrown at them. Kijun re-tests on daily and 3 day timeframe is successful, also price is above cloud and we had a bullish TK cross happening. 25/26 USD was break down level from FTX, so it is crucial to reclaim this one. Dips are for buying as long as the price stays above cloud on your favourite long-term timeframe. I am watching 1D, 3D and 1W for confirmations and rejections. IDEA to be updated.
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by zymmetric
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production. This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas. This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil. Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production. This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic. Demand Demand for Natural Gas comes from: • Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand. • Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. • Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol. Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating. Inventories Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand. However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices. Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining. Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September. Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December. Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December. However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance. Henry Hub Futures Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched. CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME. Asset Managers are Bullish Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment. Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022. Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months. At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again. Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely. LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility. Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply. However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day. Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period. Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average. EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years. In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year. Trade Setup With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices. Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. Entry: 2.484 Target: 3.099 Stop Loss: 2.172 Profit at Target: USD 6,150 Loss at Stop: USD 3,120 Reward/Risk: 2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
17
Long-term Gold trading planLong-term Gold trading plan Looking back at the history of Gold, if you want a long-term increase of 1000 prices, you need a falling wedge pattern in an uptrend in the daily frame, in order to create a fomo sell. I have attached 2 ideas below. Likely this week gold will break down from the green line. If long-term investment, the current price area is sensitive, we should not participate, only buy when touching the black line of the wedge pattern. I'll wait and DCA Buy is at those 3 levels Of course, capital management must also be set, because this Gold is only electronic Gold, the FED can manipulate the price, so everything must be under control. Stoploss at 1826. Losing this point Gold will fall deeply and the upcoming August 22 will decide. My target 2180-2500-2800 in 2-3 years. -- There is one more idea of ​​the ichimoku school to strengthen a long-term bullish gold position.>> See below 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by EricGoldHunter
7
SOYB- the soybean ETF moves on buying pressure LONGOn the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including the collapse of the Black Sea shipping deal as bad actor Russia continues to inflict chaos has a ripple effect throughout agricultural commodity markets. Soybean prices are not following the chaos and volatility of the general markets like AMEX and NASDAQ but rather they follow the beat of their own drum like seasonality crop yields shipping costs and others. This make an alternative to avoid going heavy into topping or sinking general markets. They allow diversification not unlike adding bonds to a portfolio when trying to weather the storm. Given the narrow trading range I will play this with some call options If you would like my idea of an excellent call option trade please leave a comment. See also my ideas on WEAT and CORN. se to expire after the harvest and into the planting in in Brazil.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by AwesomeAvani
Potential Bull TrapWith recent declining trend in the general crypto space. It is important to take into account the potential emergence of Bull Traps. We can see one occurring currently now with a 13% sharp drop to XRP, 14% in LTC and ~4 to 5% dancing 2 hr short candles for DOGE, BTC and UNI. Impulsive traders may see the current moment as a good idea to go Long by banking in on a potential reversal. But let me explain fundamentally why this is potentially not a good idea. With the recent outpouring of good news from the XRP side of things (recent and YTD): The relist on major exchanges, the partnership with several banks of albeit non-major countries and corporations, as well as the successful yet partial victory of its court case against the SEC; we have yet to see its impact across the wider crypto space. The legal clarity of XRP itself did not provide a significant bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin which it is still dependent upon as an market indicator. Bitcoin still remains the invisible tether that virtually pegs other altcoins to it. Unless XRP itself can shift and sail away Bitcoin. We will still be depending on Bitcoin's bullish outlook for XRP increase in value. Until then, we await Grayscale's Lawsuit with the SEC regarding Grayscale's BITCOIN ETF venture that will presumably finished this week. Or the next, who knows.
BINANCE:XRPUSDShort
by Axarpy
3
Fakeout and then new low before the halving and bull run I'm here to share my optimistic take on Bitcoin's potential trajectory! It's invigorating to witness the likelihood of BTC soaring to the 35k mark in the short term. And here's where the excitement escalates: as we approach this milestone, we might also witness a reversal, potentially dipping to take out the last low at 15.5k. This prospective dip could present an incredible opportunity to employ Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, allowing us to accumulate more crypto holdings at a discounted rate. This strategic move positions us favorably before the upcoming halving and the anticipated bull run. With this approach, we're primed to ride the wave to new All-Time Highs (ATH), with the tantalizing possibility of reaching the 100k mark. By the way, we have 8 months left until the halving. Imagine the surge in interest and engagement in crypto during this time! Remember, the halving event has historically been a catalyst for significant bullish market shifts. As miner rewards are halved, we tend to see a decrease in new BTC circulating. This often sparks heightened demand and potential bull markets, driving us toward exhilarating milestones. For those curious about the countdown to the halving, you can track it here: Halving Countdown. As we revel in these exciting times, let's keep in mind the broader market context and the various elements at play. Feel free to jump into the discussion with your thoughts and perspectives!
by fibonaccispiral618
1
USD CAD - Demand in control, outlook to 1.40+G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily chart Weekly Chart Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to: better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves. We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles. We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
SP:SPXLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
Updat Gold close weekly candleUpdate Gold close weekly candle Gold is about to go through the end of the H4 down wave, when it reaches 1908 it will end the H4 down wave, and we buy small volume to bring gold back to the price balance with a bullish wave on the H1 time frame. Today there is PPI news, in my opinion, Gold sweeps the peak 24-26 then collapses to 1908, and it will be pulled up to withdraw the weekly candle. This idea I update will agree with the idea below, if everything goes well, Gold price goes up 1936-40 we sell off to 1867-1952
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EricGoldHunter
3
INFLATION INCOMING - Real world implications (Oranges)Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things: -- Weather forecasts -- Inflation -- Supply shocks -- Global trade Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic. But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by CrosbyVenture
1
INFLATION is coming (Real consumer costs) Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things: -- Weather forecasts -- Inflation -- Supply shocks -- Global trade Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic. But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by CrosbyVenture
Gold Breaks Out of Triangle Pattern, Targets $1,850Gold has been trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern since June, consolidating between lower highs and higher lows. The pattern suggests a period of indecision and uncertainty, but also implies a potential breakout in either direction. On August 9, gold finally broke out of the triangle to the upside, closing above the upper trendline and the 50-day moving average. The breakout was confirmed by a surge in volume and a bullish crossover of the MACD indicator. The triangle breakout signals a continuation of the previous uptrend that started in March, when gold bottomed at $1,677. The measured move of the triangle projects a target of $1,850, which is also near the 200-day moving average and the resistance level from May. The breakout also coincides with a weaker US dollar, as the market anticipates a lower-than-expected CPI inflation report for July. A lower CPI would ease the pressure on the Fed to taper its stimulus, which would benefit gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. Therefore, I expect gold to continue its rally towards $1,850 in the coming weeks, as long as it stays above the triangle support and the 50-day moving average. A break below these levels would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a false breakout.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Scelo_Sphiwe
4
My Transaction HistoryAt the beginning of July, I bought and held 2 Gold orders like the long-term idea below. I have liquidated 1 order. And sell off Gold according to the idea below with the hope that gold creates a wedge on the daily frame, which is a necessary condition for Gold to go up in the long term. My sell-off order moved my stop loss to a tie. Avoid the case of Gold going up, of course I will not liquidate this sell order soon when the price has not reached 1900-1890. And when Gold price fills the lower wedge, I will Buy more and this time hold for a long time.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EricGoldHunter
DCA opportunity of a lifetime?After the disappointments from the Iphone sales, again. We might have just stepped into prices we could never see again in years to come. Because of these strong levels, and a boring year and a half with no major breakouts. we might see some DCA opportunities arise under the recent trend line breakout that seems to indicate a weaker long term bullish trend in the next few months. The Fibonacci-golden-pockets usually gives strong levels to enter long positions if the rallies ever where to push the price so deep. Short term, there looks to be a lot of demand in this current price, and the price will probably attempt a retest towards the recent breakout level. Beyond this short-term time horizon, Apple might be able to maintain its strength and continue the bullish phase it has experienced so far this year.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by KBM_
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40 Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing. The Chart - 22 month cycles - 22 months increasing and then decreasing - Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level. - A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow. - We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline. Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation. Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be; - Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug) - Losing the 10 month moving average - In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern) Lets see what happens. PUKA
CAPITALCOM:IT40Short
by PukaCharts