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Altseason Indicator Total 3 - capitalization without BTC and ETHLogarithm. Time frame 1 month. The chart shows two major and one minor cycle of pumping alts and the market as a whole. This chart emphasizes the time of alts pumping without taking into account the heavyweights BTC and ETH , which occupy a huge share of the crypto market. That is, directly makes it clear when the long-awaited alt season begins. All major previous and future alt season on the chart. Note that these are the maximum prices for most altcoins in a certain phase of the market. Be sure to clean out your pockets alts during these times. The capitalization of these assets has long been in a squeeze - consolidation, there is a direct correlation with the accumulation zones. We are in the final accumulation phase. Note that there has been no real capitulation (perhaps there won't be, and if there is, it will be V figuratively , but that's not the point). That is, as soon as the reversal levels (marked in yellow) are broken through - the prices of these groups of assets begin to rise. The "participation" phase is launched on the market. That is the price movement to the distribution zones. As a rule, by this phase of the market ( distribution ) capitalization grows 10 times , prices accordingly. This is the time - "the hamster is not scared", i.e. the time when one should get rid of (lock in super profits) from "promising crypto garbage". Below provided is a basic variation of asset group grading on tradingview that makes sense to monitor and use as true market indicators. This gives insight into potential asset group pumps/dumps or market phase changes. These types of "ideas" are done once and for many years. Because relevance is never lost if you understand the point 1) Market capitalization of different assets: Crypto total cap - total market capitalization of the market in $ Crypto total cap 2 - market capitalization excluding BTC in $ Crypto total cap 3 - market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH in $ 2) DeFI projects: Crypto total cap DeFI - DeFI cryptocurrency capitalization in $ Crypto total cap DeFI.D - capitalization in % terms of DeFi dominance to the market 3) Major Stablecoins: Market cap USDT - USDT capitalization in $ Market cap USDT % - capitalization in % terms of dominance to the whole market Market cap USDC - USDC capitalization in $ Market cap USDC % - capitalization in % dominance expression to the whole market. 4) Bit cocaine Market cap BTC $ - capitalization of BTC in $ Market cap BTC dominannce % - capitalization in % dominance expression to the whole market. 5) Ethereum Market cap ETH $ - capitalization of ETH in $ Market cap ETH dominannce % - capitalization in % expression of dominance to the whole market. 6) USD index (DXY) The US Dollar cyrrency index is the most important indicator of the pamp/dump markets as a whole (more globally, not just crypto). Market cycles are humans behavior, what is displayed on the price chart and which lends itself to cyclical thinking/actions, which shapes the market direction. . Below I will publish similar ideas — indicators that I have published previously for several years and that for obvious reasons remain relevant. I will also make analysis of new groups of assets by capitalization from the list, which have not been analyzed before. But, I will do all the analysis of instruments only when I have free time.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by SpartaBTC
5
Crypto total cap DeFI.D - % of dominance of DeFiLogarithm. Time frame 1 week. Chart. This is the crypto total cap DeFI.D This is the percentage of dominance of DeFi projects in relation to the entire market. This is a very important indicator for understanding the pump or dump of this asset class. That is, to understand when there will be an alt-season on this group of assets, which will "overtake the market" at a moment in time. Below is a basic type of asset group grading on tradingview that makes sense to monitor and use as true market indicators. This gives insight into potential asset group pump/dump or market phase shifts. These types of idea are done once and for many years. Because relevance is never lost if you understand the meaning 1) Market capitalization of different assets: Crypto total cap - total market capitalization of the market in $ Crypto total cap 2 - market capitalization excluding BTC in $ Crypto total cap 3 - market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH in $ 2) DeFI projects: Crypto total cap DeFI - DeFI cryptocurrency capitalization in $ Crypto total cap DeFI.D - capitalization in % terms of DeFi dominance to the market 3) Major Stablecoins: Market cap USDT - capitalization of USDT in $ Market cap USDT % - capitalization in % expression of dominance to the whole market Market cap USDC - capitalization of USDC in $ Market cap USDC % - capitalization in % dominance terms to the whole market. 4) Bitcoin Market cap BTC $ - capitalization of BTC in $ Market cap BTC dominannce % - capitalization in % dominance expression to the whole market. 5) Ethereum Market cap ETH $ - capitalization of ETH in $ Market cap ETH dominannce % - capitalization in % dominance expression to the whole market. 6) USD index (DXY) US Dollar cyrrency index - this is the most important indicator of the pump/dump markets as a whole (more globally, not just crypto). Market cycles are humans behavior, what is displayed on the price chart and which lends itself to cyclical thinking/actions, which shapes the market direction. . Below I will publish similar ideas - indicators that I have published previously for several years and that for obvious reasons remain relevant. I will also make analysis of new groups of assets by capitalization from the list, which have not been analyzed before. But, I will do all the analysis of instruments only when I have free time.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALDEFI.D
by SpartaBTC
The Crypto Bull Run has Begun: SOL to 20xLONG TERM CRYPTO VIEW The crypto bull run has begun and with the BTC halving coming in 2024, it's just a matter of time before BTC hits new highs and altcoins follow. BTC is, of course, the bellwether of the crypto market but it is not my biggest position. I am heavily weighted to Solana as I believe it will act how Ethereum did in the previous 2021 peak cycle. Solana is a similar "platform-type" cryptocurrency like ETH that allows for applications to be built upon it, but the network is far superior. Transaction fees are lower, speed is higher, and I believe SOL has the scalability to compete with ETH in the long run. I am not suggesting SOL will overtake ETH's market cap any time soon because ETH will rise in a bull run too. ETH's market cap is about 10.6x that of SOL. If my predictions for the bull run peaks are accurate, this will decline to about 3.75x as SOL outperforms ETH by 3x in the coming cycle. The charts here are a logarithmic analysis and if I'm correct about Sol being the ETH of this cycle, we should see a $1200 peak, give or take. $600 minimum and up to $2500 wouldn't surprise me. Crypto can surpass even your wildest expectations. In the short term, I expect a BTC consolidation and maybe a local top when ETF approval hits. Best of luck out there.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Sultan_of_Chart
EU 30Y Bond Yield to extend further into 2008 high in 2024Economic Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available. Technicals Favor: Strong yearly candle Favor: Strong M BiMS Favor: M BiMS after ATL Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher Currently at 10Y High Expectation Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term) 1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI Inverted) - 95% Certainty 2 - 1.625% (Target (already traded to)) - 75% Certainty 3 - 1.330% (MT Recent Upswing based on Y H to L) - 65% Certainty 4 - 1.149% (MT Recent Upswing based on Y Bodies) - 55% Certainty 5 - 1% (Beginning of Grind upwards) - 25% Certainty Upside Targets (After Downside) 1 - 3.160% - Y 2023 High - 95% Certainty 2 - 4.915% - 85% Certainty 3 - 5.738% ( Fib 1.618 Extension) - 65% Certainty 4 - 6.258% (23Y High) - 35% Certainty
TVC:EU30YLong
by FXCytech
OPUSDT -EPIC ALTseason LONG SETUP +230%Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 This time of the market is THE BEST time to fill up those bags and accumulate. I have been looking at altcoins that are currently trading underneath their first ATH. These alts make excellent trades in terms of low risk and high reward setups. (Check out our page for the other alts). In today's analysis, another sleeping giant to keep your eye on - OPUSDT. I am extremely bullish on these alts as they have great upside potential for the next bull cycle. Remember to hit 👍 and follow if you love money ! _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by Crypto-Check-
29
DOGE : RALLY before OR after XMas?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 As seen on the chart, I've highlighted some potential signs that will help to determine whether we can expect a rally before the 25th or after the 25th / in 2024 : - If Doge is getting ready for a rally before the 25th, we can expect to see some higher lows. Currently we're trading lower than we did two weeks ago this time. - If Doge continues to trade range, it's more likely for another wick towards the lower support zone before we observe a breakout. The price action over the next two weeks will indicate whether or not we can still expect a rally this year, or only next. For the short term, I'm leaning towards lower price action on DOGE, expecting one more wick towards the lower support : The main reason for my short sentiment, is the clear bearish technical indicator in the short term: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck BINANCE:DOGEUSDT BINANCE:DOGEUSD
Short
by Crypto-Check-
16
Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean PricesSoybean prices have been on a rollercoaster fuelled by turbulence over the last month amid elevated weather concerns, changing production yields, and geopolitical upheavals affecting prices. Winters are vital for bean traders. This paper delves into the various forces at play to guide traders and portfolio managers to navigate through the rough weather. Favourable weather combined tail winds for Soybean harvests plus weakness in destination markets are setting the ground for bearishness in bean prices. A short position in CME Soybean futures can be used to manage risk. US SOYBEAN HARVEST RESULTS Soybean harvest in the US has concluded providing a more certain supply outlook for the ongoing marketing year. Next Soybean harvest will take place in March-June in South America. Until then, current inventories will have to meet the demand. As per USDA update , Soy harvesting in the US is 90% complete. Yields for the 2023/2024 marketing year were updated to 49.9 bushels/acre in the November WASDE report compared to 49.6 bushels/acre in the October report. This resulted in an upward revision to the production and ending stocks figures as well since the consumption forecast remained unchanged. A similar update was reported by USDA in the global soybean outlook which suggested that global soybean production would be marginally higher. Despite the upward revisions, the US production figures represent a YoY decline of 4 million MT (-3.3%). The upward revision then, provides a larger buffer to account for potentially higher consumption. This is vital because bean inventory balances in the US this year are tighter than the previous two years. US Ending stocks are forecast to be 6.68 million MT compared to 7.3 million MT last year. As a result, although the upward revision expanded the buffer, it is quite narrow which could exacerbate a shortage in case consumption edges higher. SEASONAL TRENDS As highlighted by Mint in a previous paper , seasonal trends in Soybean futures are affected by harvest. During harvest, prices decline before recovering post-harvest as inventories are depleted. However, the seasonal trend is distinct during El Niño years where returns underperform the usual average, especially in December-January. BRAZIL WEATHER CONCERNS LIFTED Soybean markets are heavily influenced by weather in Brazil. Hotter than expected weather and erratic precipitation raised concerns for Brazilian crops which drove Soybean prices higher over the past month. Brazil experienced a strong heat wave last month which has a negative effect on crops. Weather effects on crop yields are most pronounced during the early stages of growth. However, weather is now set to improve as weather forecasts suggest the arrival of rains and milder temperatures ahead. Both are positive for the bean crop. Still, higher-than-expected precipitation remains a concern for the crop. As highlighted by University of Delaware , too much rainfall during the planting stage can lead to significant yield reduction. Source: USDA Brazil is the largest producer of Soybean and its harvest had been expanding rapidly over the past three years. This had previously led to oversupply concerns in global markets, exacerbated by a low demand environment in the largest soybean consumer China. Though consumption in China is forecast to increase YoY, it will not be enough to match the increase in global production (especially in Brazil) per the latest WASDE estimates . Net effect is larger ending stocks globally which is bearish for Soybean prices. EL NIÑO UPDATE In this El Niño year, unexpected weather pose significant concerns as it deviates from the anticipated impact on soybean crops outlined in our previous paper . While El Niño typically brings favourable conditions, such as increased rainfall and mild weather leading to a 3.5% higher soybean yield on average. Brazil is experiencing unexpectedly warm weather and low precipitation, diverging from the usual patterns. The unpredictability of these conditions amplifies their potential impact on prices compared to previously expected El Niño effects. Source - NOAA El Niño continues to evolve adversely as Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has reached its highest level since 2016. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at Niño 3.4 is another indicator that has reached an all-time-high. Source - NOAA SIGNAL FROM SOYBEAN FUTURES MARKET Technical signals suggest a bearish trend in bean futures. Front month bean contract was on an upward trend since mid-October. The front month contract tested but failed to pass a key pivot resistance level of 1,381 USc/bushel. Price has since declined 5% and points to a reversal as the Moving Averages close to forming a bearish crossover. Asset managers switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month. However, over the last 2 weeks, asset managers have reduced net long positioning by 20k contracts. Options markets point to bearishness as participants are positioned for Soybean price to decline with a P/C ratio of 1.31 which suggests more bearish bets than bullish ones. Further, bearish bets have increased sharply over the past week with the largest increase in puts on the April monthly contract and December monthly contract. Moreover, participants have reduced call OI on the front-month December contract. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With the overhang of negative weather in Brazil lifted, bean prices are likely to decline and pare gains from the past month due to a weak demand environment. Market metrics also suggest a bearish trend. To gain exposure, investors can deploy a short position on Soybean futures expiring in Feb ( ZSH2024 ). CME Soybean futures expiring in March require a maintenance margin of USD 2,800 (as of December 4th) and provide exposure to 5000 bushels. Entry: USc 1,336 Target: USc 1,272.25 Stop Loss: USc 1,381 Profit at Target: USD 3,187 Loss at Stop: USD 2,250 Reward/Risk: 1.42x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
Risk/Reward favors downside shift to risk Off Sentiment.. BTC has reached a crucial point in which candles appear to be failing around 35K. We must consider potential scenarios to begin the new month of November. In One of these scenarios we may anticpate a retracement to capture fomo liquidity. Fomo liquidity is psychological concept in trading that refers to the chasing of price. New Monthly candle retracement for liquidity purposes. Current : 34775 33,372 TP 1 TP 2 30,300 Weekly Level Trade idea Fakeout back below 35K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Place your bets for AAVEAs we venture into the year 2024, the trajectory of the markets and the global economy remains shrouded in ambiguity. AAVE has surpassed my projections for 2023, defying my anticipation of new lows for AAVEUSD by the year's end. Although we have witnessed new lows for AAVEBTC, I sense that we might be on the brink of significant surprises, either positive or negative, especially considering the upcoming election year. The forthcoming months appear to be pivotal in shaping the future course of this market cycle and beyond. Place your bets!
BINANCE:AAVEUSD
by Bs_215
Swing Trading Signals, Momentum Patterns: TPRLuxury fashion brands are popular for speculation heading into the holidays. With a few points to the bottom completion resistance, NYSE:TPR has a swing trading entry signal, 2 in a row now. Resting days that create a narrow consolidation can be powerful momentum-building patterns for short-term trading. Swing trading, rather than day trading, these setups can net better profits. Position trading needs to wait for a stronger support level to build for an entry, which usually occurs when the bottom formation completes.
NYSE:TPRLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Bitcoin Dominance(Uses) CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that is represented by Bitcoin. In other words, it indicates the proportion of the entire cryptocurrency market that is attributed to Bitcoin's market value. For example, if Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $600 billion and the total cryptocurrency market cap is $1.5 trillion, then the Bitcoin dominance would be 40% (since $600 billion is 40% of $1.5 trillion). Bitcoin dominance is a metric that traders, investors, and analysts use to assess Bitcoin's relative strength compared to other cryptocurrencies. Changes in Bitcoin dominance can be indicative of shifts in market sentiment. For instance, if Bitcoin dominance is increasing, it may suggest a trend where Bitcoin is outperforming other cryptocurrencies, and if it's decreasing, it may indicate that alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) are gaining traction. During phases of high Bitcoin dominance, traders might opt for a more conservative approach, focusing on larger, more established cryptocurrencies to reduce risk. Conversely, when Bitcoin dominance is low, and altcoins are performing well, traders may allocate a portion of their portfolio to potentially higher-risk, higher-reward altcoin investments. Remember that while Bitcoin dominance can provide valuable insights, it should not be the sole factor in your trading decisions, Cryptocurrency markets are highly dynamic, and factors such as news, regulations, and technological developments, can significantly impact prices. Always, always, always use a comprehensive approach to trading and common sense :-) You can find the Bitcoin Dominance Chart by typing BTC.D into the TradigngView searching tool. Enjoy
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by KuroHei