Seasonality
BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs.
However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price.
Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon.
Trades:
Trade 1
Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region.
Trade 2
Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry.
Trade 3
Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500
Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
Oil price cycles and rulesWhere will oil prices go in the future? Oil prices are often affected by the moves of OPEC, Russia, and wars involving countries in the oil exporting alliance.
When looking at the large frame, we can easily see that oil prices usually bottom in January at the beginning of the year, and the cycle is every 7 years.
Temporarily take the recovery zone between Fibo 0.618 and 0.788 as the entry and profit taking zone.
In my personal opinion, in the next 10 years, oil energy will no longer be attractive or a popular energy source for humanity. Maybe factories and transportation will gradually change. from oil energy to cleaner energy for emissions into the environment.
Bch MACRO VIEWBecause price finally managed to close above 200$, BCH can no easily retest 230$. Only after price manages to liquidate that intermediary high and then mitigate the remaining orders above it, we will get the confirmation needed for price to continue to go towards 33$ and then 450-500$. Make sure to watch the video in depth, as I explain important cyclical movements that are already occurring on BCH's chart.
BTC LONG TERM VIEWBTC can still drop from here, especially if price continues to trade below 29k by the end of this month. As long as price trades above 26.5k, BTC can continue to go up and fill the current imbalance left on the 3 day and weekly chart towards 28.5k. Bearish chances are small from here, but if price breaks below 25.5k, then we could see a potential liquidation of those current lows from 25k. Overall BTC will become very bullish once the orders from 29k are exhausted and price breaks and closes above that level. 38k is the main target after that, but until then, we need more data from the higher timeframe charts.
Let's go to the Moon!As the halving for Bitcoin approches in April 2024, I am expecting a fast approach to all time highs around end of Nov-Dec of 2024. Bitcoin remains the #1 Cryptocurrency and will be here for time to come. Using the 2020 Bull and Bust Trend, the Ghost Candles mark the path. I do not believe there will be a 2024 Bitcoin Crash as it is getting harder and harder to get more Bitcoin for your moneys worth as price increases on a rapid pace if people feel FOMO. There is a forbes article "Here’s What Caused Bitcoin’s ‘Extreme’ Price Plunge" and from what I read it was due to a Bitmex outage based on being knocked offline. I believe that Futures price shouldnt matter because if you actually hold your Bitcoin in your wallet, price on for Futures shouldnt matter and when you get liquadated on Bitmex, your Bitcoin only goes from your hand to another persons hand. One persons Loss is anothers Gain. I am also 10,000 Matic Tokens to see if I get lucky on the next bullrun, just as a side bet on the altcoin. Bitcoin should be your number one Cryptocurrency holding. Let's go to the Moon!
UK100 Bullish SeptemberDaily chart of UK100 is expected to Break up weekly resistance and trendline to follow a Bullish September Seasonal behaviour. Take Long positions after retest and new orderblock formation
Dow theory HHs HLs: Bullish
Candlestick Pattern : Bullish forming three soldiers
Support &Resistance: Orange line formed on Weekly chark
Trendline: Resistance approaching expected to breakup
Fibonacci: Bullish Touched 50% on daily
Seasonals: Bullish
Divergence: Bullish on 4hr
Pattern: Bullish Penant on Daily