Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40
Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing.
The Chart
- 22 month cycles
- 22 months increasing and then decreasing
- Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level.
- A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow.
- We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline.
Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation.
Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be;
- Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug)
- Losing the 10 month moving average
- In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern)
Lets see what happens.
PUKA
Seasonality
ISM New Orders vs Consumer SentimentISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index
ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments.
According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions".
According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy."
Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. Something we can keep an eye on and something that will factor in this weeks MACRO MONDAY Edition which i will post immediately after this
PUKA
Shib🐶 End of year 2023 update will it hit $0.01After the rally due to the recent announcement that of a possible Price Boost From Binance ‘Loans’
A lot has changed this outcome and possible support for the future, the question still remains
Will Shib see $0.01?
I can't fully answer that question but the likelihood of it is high.
Be warned, however; there is no telling when and if it will, the gold bars are just idea areas where it might go if shib see's major support in the coming months so take it with a grain of salt.
BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
COINBASE:SHIBUSD
CRYPTOCAP:SHIB
Interest rates & seasonalityWith interest rising again we could see USD seasonality becoming meaningful again. Last year around October a real downtrend developed towards January like the old days.
Let's see what UJ does from here or if it continues to rise, what it will do at 144.5. Interesting times again!
Update plan GBPUSD 2/8 - H4On the H4 time frame, the current price is approaching 1.26525
Coming here is confirmation of the end of the H4 down wave.
The down wave H4 is the correcting wave of the weekly frame.
Therefore, this idea also reinforces that GU still maintains an uptrend in the medium term.
I have the related ideas below, whenever there are convergence points I will increase the trading volume, which often brings me high profits.
Don't forget we have news tomorrow about interest rates and then USD news, I predict GU will establish 2 bottoms in H1 frame, the latter bottom is lower than the previous one (bottom sweep scenario in H4 frame). Because this is its characteristic.
The Real Alt Coin Season Starts Here!Bitcoin usually surpasses the future halving price in crypto Autumn. Shortly there after we usually start to see alt coins ripping higher at different points throughout the season, all the way up to even early crypto Winter. On this chart I have a few of those OG alt coins (XRP, DOGE & LTC) compared to Bitcoin. The green dashed vertical lines are the points where bitcoin surpassed the future halving price in the past 2 cycles. Now take a look at the parabolic rise of these alt coins after that event. Vertical! Obviously there are some pretty significant moves before then, but nothing compares to after bitcoin surpasses the future halving price! The next event is projected to be around late 2024 to early 2025. What are your thoughts?
The Crypto Downtrend Cycle Has Ended: Onto the Next Cycle2018-2020 bear market
- Duration: 852 days
2021-2023 bear market
- Duration: 852 days?
Crypto market cycles have historically been predictable.
Some theorize this predictability is the direct product of the BTC supply schedule that halves block rewards every four years.
Some theorize that early canadian BTC miners accentuated the predictability of bitcoin market cycles as a result of cold winters when they used their miners to heat their shanties in 2012, only to become billionaires less than a decade later.
Perhaps a bunch of canadians are the Wyckoffian composite btc market operator, that would be something, ey?
10x Your ALTCOIN Portfolio with these 💎 Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, and one of the most interesting trends to watch is the rotation of liquidity between BTCUSDT and altcoins. This refers to the movement of capital/cash/dollars between BTC and alts as investors seek out the best opportunities for short term gains.
Since we have already seen the rotation from BTC into higher market cap coins such as XRP, ETH, SOL and LTC, we can now expect to see rallies across the microcap altcoin market. But the altcoin market is more mature than last time. More and more investors are seeking to invest early in projects with real value, real use case and good fundamentals.
Today I'd like to point out a few of those altcoins that I'm watching:
1) SOLOUSDT
2) FGHTUSDT
3) SYNUSDT
As seen on the bottom chart
4) CQTUSDT
As seen on the top chart
STAY TUNED for more updates 🔥
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CryptoCheck
POLONIEX:SOLOUSDT CRYPTO:SOLOUSD UNISWAP3ETH:FGHTUSDT_7C7B2A.USD BINANCE:SYNUSDT OKX:CQTUSDT
Gold 15m 1st AugustWe are now in a new month, gold has traded aggressively in the last month, currently I am mapping a bullish internal structure, I would like to see gold trade higher today. We have news this afternoon.
Again ideally I would like to have seen a deeper push to the downside to clear the lows from Monday. If the price does do this during the afternoon I will re evaluate.
what a chartwe have LQ spike and then this spike had broken and the price complete the pullback
we can get a buy position
Let Time Be Your GuideCrypto Market Monthly Chart
The Crypto Market Cap can offer great perspective for long term swing trade entry and exits into BTC and ETH, and should be watched closely as this market develops.
There is a clear time pattern which would suggest that you should have your position or at least be DCA'ing now into the reliable market participants BTC and ETH.
You should have a position size that would allow you to withstand volatility down to €17k and not exit the trade, you should have a position you wont exit until mid 2025.
The 10 month moving average is also turning up and moving in the right direction again, as it did during the orange "Get Ready" periods historically, these were good entry periods.
With a recession looking very probable in the next 6 - 18 months (as the yield curve has started to un-invert), it is important to recognize that we might have a March 2020 style correction for the Crypto Market Cap, thus I have overlaid that bull period (Jun 2019 - Nov 2021) onto the chart as a projection of what may be possible. It would not surprise me to see a correction of this magnitude down to approx. €17k, do i expect to happen? NO! but we have to be open to the possibility, especially with the high probability of a recession over coming 6 - 18 month period. Thus it would be wise to position accordingly and potentially have a little powder on the sidelines. Regardless, you should have your core position in place or be getting it in place as there is likely a 29 month period of upwards trajectory incoming and all you truly need is to maintain your emotions and practice patience until mid 2025.
Good luck on your 29 month trading journey, stay focused on time and patience.
Apple's Earnings: Should You Take Some Profits Off The Table?Apple's Earnings: Should You Take Some Profits Off The Table? Apple stock has been on a roll lately, up 50% heading into earnings. However, given that earning date is just around the corner on August 3, and historically, Apple stock tends to sell off in the months of August and September, it's time to consider the wisest course of action. Many investors are pondering whether to take some profits off the table, especially considering that the company's revenue, net income, and net profit margin have all been declining in recent quarters. As we rationalize why or why not to sell Apple's shares, let's review everything you need to know about Apple's earnings and stock performance.
Update oil 29/7 no2Last week's oil just broke the weekly line, but if there is no gap up over the week, I will sell and remove.
Because I think this is a candle that pushes the price to take profit to lure buying fomo
The first target is 76, then monitor the reaction like the scenario below and then confirm.
Medium-term target is 66-49 ( All must satisfy the condition that on the first day of next week, there is no increase gap)
In case the gap increases over the week, it is possible that in the next time oil will reach 93.
--
Technically:
- Weekly frame: price hits the belly of thick clouds >> pretty good resistance
- Daily frame: the price goes all the way to 234, confirming the end of the up wave on the daily frame, the increasing wave on the daily frame is a correction to decrease in the weekly frame.
- So my medium-term oil trend is down to 4x (this is crazy right?)
Update Olil 14/7Update Olil 14/7
Oil is about to hit the 77.5 zone, if it gets there, it will confirm the end of the daily time frame bullish wave.
What we need to do is watch the price reaction in this zone 77-77.5
Expected trading plan:
Sell limit oil 77- 77.5
SL 78.5
TP 73.5
TP2 72.5
( Sell small volume transactions)
Buy limit oil 72.2-71.5
SL 70
TP 78.8
TP2 80.3
( Buy normal or large volume trades)
The previous plan made a profit of more 750pip 👇 👇
Gold XAUUSD daily insightsGold
Seasonally gold tend to have a bit of a rally towards the last week of July
Daily is very interesting because its showing bullish swing structure however it has bearish internal structure recently showing bullish momentum in line with the higher timeframe like the weekly and monthly.
We have now traded above the weekly inside range and closed above, we could see gold push lower still and take the daily gap.
Technically we now have a change of character on the daily back to the downside as well as a sweep of liquidity.
Next week we have FOMC, therefore its wise to anticipate an area of liquidity where the most amount of damage can be done will be targeted.
We are trading around the equilibrium of the weekly range and have a weak low.
I will be trading cautiously until the FOMC rates release and statement to get a feel for the true direction.
Bitcoin for the test of timeWe having multiple mixed economic signals, but taking all the noise out, we can see that US economy will be facing a recession, M2 at the lowest says a recession is coming, today we having jobless claims, inflation came lower than expected, but higher than last one, J.POW will increase the rate hikings, and Muricans are saving lower cash than ever...
This may lead to a economic crisis, we had banks crashing early this year as well.
For Bitcoin keep going up we need a really good scenario, since we having accumulation period for the halving, we are not in a bull market yet, but people calling for 40keks a single coin are delusional at this point.
do not buy the top!
cheers!