Solana (SOL) -> New Altcoin SeasonMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Solana.
During the year 2021 we saw a crazy rally of more than 25.000% on Solana and since the beginning of 2022 Solana perfectly dropped more than 90% towards the downside.
Following this overall long term pump and dump trend I do expect another crazy pump after Solana broke out of the current triangle formation.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Seasonality
BTC: Counting down the daysBoom4 is on deck! Looks like a fresh BITSTAMP:BTCUSD all time high Dec '24 and we top out Nov '25.
Top to bottom:
2013: 410 days
2017: 363 days
2021: 376 days
Bottom to new high:
2013: 771 days
2017: 732 days
2021: ~750 days (Dec 2024)
New high to Top:
2013: 297 days
2017: 329 days
2021: ~345 days (Nov 2025)
BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs.
However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price.
Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon.
Trades:
Trade 1
Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region.
Trade 2
Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry.
Trade 3
Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500
Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
Oil price cycles and rulesWhere will oil prices go in the future? Oil prices are often affected by the moves of OPEC, Russia, and wars involving countries in the oil exporting alliance.
When looking at the large frame, we can easily see that oil prices usually bottom in January at the beginning of the year, and the cycle is every 7 years.
Temporarily take the recovery zone between Fibo 0.618 and 0.788 as the entry and profit taking zone.
In my personal opinion, in the next 10 years, oil energy will no longer be attractive or a popular energy source for humanity. Maybe factories and transportation will gradually change. from oil energy to cleaner energy for emissions into the environment.
Bch MACRO VIEWBecause price finally managed to close above 200$, BCH can no easily retest 230$. Only after price manages to liquidate that intermediary high and then mitigate the remaining orders above it, we will get the confirmation needed for price to continue to go towards 33$ and then 450-500$. Make sure to watch the video in depth, as I explain important cyclical movements that are already occurring on BCH's chart.
BTC LONG TERM VIEWBTC can still drop from here, especially if price continues to trade below 29k by the end of this month. As long as price trades above 26.5k, BTC can continue to go up and fill the current imbalance left on the 3 day and weekly chart towards 28.5k. Bearish chances are small from here, but if price breaks below 25.5k, then we could see a potential liquidation of those current lows from 25k. Overall BTC will become very bullish once the orders from 29k are exhausted and price breaks and closes above that level. 38k is the main target after that, but until then, we need more data from the higher timeframe charts.