Get started

Seasonality

$BTC October 28th, 2022. Bold predictions.Here's my thesis.. Summer ends.. Diminishing Cycles.. Aka Diminishing bear markets..to the tune of 63.5% less.. based off previous bear phases which occurred directly after a 3D death cross.. 165 days of chop makes sense.. with a potential sweep of the lows once again.. and sprinkle in a 40% probability of a wick down to 12-14k .. Until then.. I think we chop sideways until October.. Parabolic bull phase resumes post 2024 election and halving with a 150k-160k USD target before topping out in November 2025. Sorry moon-boys, no million dollar target this decade. -- R.I.P. to my dear friend Andreas who passed on today at the young age of 34. --
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TheTraderAndy
2
Sell Bitcoin in May and Walk Away?'Sell in May and walk away' - does it apply to #Bitcoin? Historically, selling in May results in missing out on gains. However, a simple strategy that buys COINBASE:BTCUSD in Oct and sells in May is profitable 60% of the time, with a net profit of 4.15%. The strategy's effectiveness depends on the current market cycle. Selling in May misses gains in a recovering market, but helps avoid losses in a bear market. So, is Bitcoin in a bear market now? Evidence suggests not. Adjusting the strategy to sell in May only if in a downtrend results in lower net profit, but allows for capturing larger trends. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-period Simple Moving Average, with a significant low & growing on-chain fundamentals. Based on the strategy, selling in May 2023 may lead to missing out on summer gains. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in an uptrend since the beginning of the year. Resistance at $30K, support at $26K. Long break of $30K targeting 35-$37K. Daily Baseline support at $24K; as long as price is above, market is bullish. A Head & Shoulders pattern is forming, projecting a downside target of 23,171. A similar scenario in March rallied to new yearly highs. For Bitcoin investors: Hold BTC, avoid Ethereum (Bitcoin outperforming). To hedge, short all or part of BTC in the current range. If Bitcoin breaks $30K, unhedge to catch the breakout. Hold short to 23K, then re-evaluate. In summary, while the "Sell in May" strategy can be profitable, its effectiveness depends on the market cycle. Currently, it may not be the best approach for Bitcoin. Instead, consider holding and hedging to maximize potential gains.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CrackingCryptocurrency
How does the US Federal Reserve balance affect ALL MARKETS? The Fed's balance has decreased, the crypto market, Sp500 went into a correction, and bitcoin is falling faster than Sp500. BTC is the most risky asset, because it shows weaker than the US index, BUT Now in the US, many Sp500 companies report quarterly. The global economy is in recession, which means that you should not expect any impressive results from companies. We expect Sp500 to fall, followed by Bitcoin. 🔍 Now you need to closely monitor the macro data of the US market. As you can see on the chart, the Fed's balance sheet was already falling below its current levels at the end of February, which led to the bankruptcy of a number of banks. And as a result, new money was poured into the market, which led to the growth of the crypto market🌪️ The leaders of central banks do not know how to solve problems differently, and with such a financial system there is no way out other than printing money. Therefore, as soon as the Fed's balance sheet starts to grow again, the crypto market will continue to rally with double strength. Guys, no matter if you trade long/short - be sure to use stops in trades 🛡️
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Dorado_Crypto
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance