Potential Wyckoff reversal pattern BTCUSDHi everybody.
I want to pick your brain about my swing trade / position trade entry idea on BTC.
Investment thesis:
FUNDAMENTALS:
Long Term: Liquidity expanding + China Stimulus / Raoul Paul GMI concepts.
Time based: End of quarter rally + cycle stage should come with a rally.
TECHNICALS
Weekly: FVG in Support tested several times.
Daily: Daily wicks and Bullish FVG
Hourly: Wyckoff (sort of) strucutre: Sell climax + penetration + BOut Res + retest
RR: 3:1 approx.
Seasonality
Bitcoin potential reset with Head and Shoulders / WyckoffEven though I am long BTC, GETTEX:92K (target of daily brekout) has been used as liquidity (support). As a antithesis to my long bias, if the HnS / Wyckoff formation breaksdown, the target could be $75K. More realistically I thiknk it will go and test the $81K - $84K zone. Until $85K ish I am bullish.
Bullish bias on DXY THIS WEEKLooking at how DXY has been trading
1. The weekly and daily looks bullish
2. Seasonal tendacies suggests bullish momentum
3. It's PPI and CPI week . Volatility will kick in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some retail sales m/m and unemployment claims might continue the up move
EURUSD D1 BEARISH, RETURN TO PARITY ?Lot of confluence factors indicate that EUR is going to give way to USD
COT Delta = black line dropping hard, Institutions are heavily short
YIELD Differential = green/red line, nosedive lower
LIQUIDITY Differential = orange line = FED more restrictive than ECB ?
GAPS = Next Weekly gap is 150 pips lower @ 1.01 = Yearly S1
PIVOTS = Price below Yearly PP, heading for Yearly S1 @ 1.0050 = GAP Low
FUNDAMENTALS = USD beats EUR on pretty much all metrics
ECONOMICS = Germany, the EU-powerhouse, in multi-year recession
POLITICS = Trust is fading, most EU-countries (will) vote for change
Looking for a drop in price to 1.01, probably return to parity before spring
2024 SOY: Start Of the Year, Market OutlookIn this SOY, I will be discussing the market outlook to help retail investors plan for the year ahead. Please note that this is not financial advice, and I am not licensed to provide such advice. The insights shared here are my personal opinions based on statistics, technical analysis, macroeconomics, and seasonality statistics to manage maximum position sizing on a per-asset basis. You should always consult a licensed professional before making any and all financial decisions.
The main tickers I will be focusing on are SPY, QQQ, MSTR (which is included in QQQ), and VIX.
Macro Economics Overview
Politics will be the single most deterministic factor for performance this year and over the next four years. Politics defines policy, policy defines macroeconomic conditions, and macros determine both the direction of a trend as well as the strength of that trend . Therefore, only inexperienced or uneducated traders ignore or object to the influence of politics when making financial decisions.
Additionally, we must consider several legitimate concerns that could impact the market, including:
- Environmental disasters
- Pandemics
- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)
- Federal Reserve interest rates
- Sanctions and tariffs
- Cyber warfare
- The potential for conflict with China
- SPY VS QQQ
These factors must be discussed, evaluated, and modeled in order to properly assess the risks associated with individual portfolios. With this outline out of the way, let begin...
Environmental Disasters
The unpredictability of natural disasters, especially in a climate-altering world, can disrupt entire sectors, particularly agriculture, commodities, energy, and insurance markets. This is perhaps one of the most lucrative areas to make money, as 30+ years of systemic mispricing of risk has compounded due to the entire field of economics and finance treating climate science as an "externality." This logical error and mismanagement means that insurance companies are now scrambling to rework their pricing and risk models, pulling out of markets. There will undoubtedly be political pushback against companies as a direct result.
Companies such as the following are most likely to be effected by this: AIG, ALL, PGR, PRU, MET, TRV, CB, BRK.A, BRK.B, LMRK, CI, UNM, FNF, AFG, AFL, MFC. On a more broad market,
leveraged ETFs like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) and DRN (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares) can provide indirect exposure to sectors impacted by environmental disasters, particularly in the energy and insurance markets and Bear Call Spreads or Bull Put Spreads on these tickers may be more capital efficient way to hedge against risk compared to standard puts/calls. If you're looking to play this issue, these tickers and specific sectors may be worth doing your own research on and taking whatever appropriate step are relevant to you and only after speaking to a licensed professional.
Pandemics
The impact of pandemics on global markets can be both immediate and far-reaching. Historically, health crises like COVID-19 have caused significant disruptions across supply chains, labor markets, and consumer behavior, while exacerbating volatility in sectors such as travel, hospitality, and healthcare. Unfortunately the incoming American administration seems to not have learned their lesson that defunding pandemic response teams or the WHO is objectively a bad idea for everyone and has catastrophic economic and market impacts. The economic fallout from pandemics can lead to governments introducing lockdowns, stimulus measures (and inflation), and mass quarantines, all of which directly affect market sentiment and asset performance. While the immediate market response is often sharp and negative, opportunities exist for those who are able to identify long-term shifts in consumer behavior and industry transformation. For those looking to profit from potential market dislocations, ETFs like XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) may provide exposure to sectors that experience heightened volatility during pandemics.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)
The CMBS market has shown vulnerability in recent years, particularly in the wake of rising delinquency rates on office and retail spaces. This risk may also be compounded by underwater bonds such as the one's held by silicon valley bank and the recent increases in the 10 yr. Banks holding large portfolios of CMBS have been reluctant to acknowledge the true value of these assets, waiting for them to transition from Hold-to-Maturity (HTM) status to Other Than Temporarily Impaired (OTTI) status, at which point they will be forced to mark these assets to market, likely at a steep loss. This has the potential to destabilize the financials of banks heavily invested in commercial real estate, particularly those holding assets tied to struggling sectors such as office buildings and retail malls. Leveraged ETFs like DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares) and SRS (ProShares UltraShort Real Estate) can be used to gain short exposure to the real estate sector, which is vulnerable to the risk of widespread CMBS impairments.
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies remain a primary influence on market behavior. A rising interest rate environment typically pressures asset prices, particularly in sectors reliant on cheap credit, such as technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks. Conversely, lower interest rates can fuel asset inflation, driving up equity and bond prices. As interest rates increase, companies with high debt levels or those in capital-intensive industries are more likely to face pressure on their earnings and stock prices. Leveraged ETFs like XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF) are often impacted by rate hikes, which raise borrowing costs. On the other hand, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) tends to be more sensitive to lower interest rates.
Sanctions and Tariffs
Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving sanctions and tariffs, can have an immediate and profound impact on market dynamics. When countries impose tariffs or sanctions, it can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and lead to higher inflation. Sectors such as industrials, energy, and manufacturing tend to be the most sensitive to trade policies, with tariffs acting as a hidden tax on businesses that depend on cross-border trade. To hedge against such risks, leveraged ETFs like XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) may be relevant, depending on how tariffs are applied. Shorting specific ETFs through Put Spreads or Bear Call Spreads can also be used to mitigate exposure to sectors most affected by escalating trade barriers or sanctions.
Cyber Warfare
The rise of cyber warfare represents a significant risk to businesses and economies globally. As attacks on critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and large corporations increase, markets may react with volatility, especially in tech-heavy sectors or industries that are heavily reliant on digital systems. The increasing prevalence of ransomware, data breaches, and other malicious attacks can lead to costly disruptions, decreased consumer trust, and regulatory fines. Companies in sectors such as technology, defense, and financial services are at the highest risk of cyber-attacks. Leveraged ETFs like HACK (ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF) can provide targeted exposure to companies focused on cybersecurity. Additionally, options strategies such as Protective Puts and Straddle Spreads can be useful for managing risk in the event of a significant cyberattack impacting the market or a specific company.
The Potential for Conflict with China
The growing tensions between the U.S. and China present a major risk to global markets, particularly in sectors reliant on international trade. If conflict were to escalate, either economically or militarily, there could be profound consequences on global supply chains, trade agreements, and investor confidence. A leveraged ETF like YINN (Direxion Daily China Bull 3X Shares) can provide exposure to Chinese equities, while YANG (Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares) provides inverse exposure to China’s stock market. When Russia decided to engage in a costly conflict, which to date has sacrificed more russian lives than the total death of both nukes on Japan, leveraged ETFs like RUSL (Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares) became a particularly effective tool for profiting from volatility associated with geopolitical instability, though the delist made it difficult to fully capture such profits.
MSTR’s Impact on SPY vs QQQ Performance Differentials
The inclusion of MSTR (MicroStrategy) in QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) is a key factor that could cause significant performance differentials between SPY and QQQ . MSTR's heavy exposure to Bitcoin ties its performance directly to the volatile crypto market. A future crypto winter—a prolonged bear market in crypto—could cause MSTR to underperform, negatively affecting QQQ due to its weighting in the ETF. If this happens, QQQ may undergo rebalancing, potentially removing or reducing MSTR's weight to mitigate the impact. This would create a divergence between QQQ and SPY , as SPY is unaffected by crypto’s volatility and remains more stable with its broader sector exposure.
Thank for reading this year's SOY!
I hope you enjoyed this and I wish you all the best luck navigating the market.
Don't forget to hit the boost, follow and consider gifting a subscription if this helped you in anyway.
EURNZD Bullish for the Week of 13 JanuaryAs we see with my last post for Dollar lower www.tradingview.com
And the major pairs can be higher, however EURNZD didn't took yet his highs, so that's why i can be bullish for EURNZD for this week. Seasonal tendency didn't really confirm my theory but it just my sentiment
Bitcoin Logarithmic Chart Since 2009Bitcoin is currently in a bull cycle similar to previous cycles. Bitcoin has a notorious 4 year cycle that almost everyone knows about due to it's halving. This means the current bull cycle should extend into late 2025. However, things may be a little different from what most people would expect this time.
This is an all-time Bitcoin logarithmic chart going back to 2009 which is when Bitcoin was released. This is a monthly chart so all the information can fit onto a single screen.
The red line shows a trajectory similar to an airborne projectile of some kind. As time goes on, the velocity is slowing. We all know what happens next when velocity slows down too much. Gravity takes over!
The green lines were drawn from the lows to the highs. I realize they may be off by a candle or so depending on data source or where somebody want to put the start/end times, but this doesn't change the overall concept. Every bull cycle has lower growth in terms of %. This is just a fact.
There are 3 important notes I want to make other than slowing velocity:
1) Bitcoin is already extended up to the red line this cycle. Which just so happens to coincide with the strong psychological $100000 level.
2) Notice how the growth percentages are drastically lower each cycle. Bitcoin is currently up more than 500% from it's low point this cycle. The previous cycle only made a 1829% move. So the high for this cycle may have already been made.
3) We are about 25 candle into the current cycle. Each cycle has different durations from low point to high point though. The shortest cycle was only 28 candles. Bitcoin may very well have made it's high point this cycle already. If not, there may be only a few months left of bullish movement.
See my previous analysis using a regular linear chart which I made near the top. Both long-term charts are in agreement.
4 year cycle inversion possibilityCurrently as it stands bitcoin's 4th cycle printed right translation (after Nov '25), market participants now are looking for where the top is going to be year 3 of the cycle. Based off of previous cycles we'd look for a November of 2026, 4 year cycle low.
The main scenarios currently being considered
1. March local top, consolidation until October blow off
2. March top, lower high in October
3. Steady climb until
A 4th scenario not often talked about is a cycle inversion in 2025. If a sell off of risk assets forcing the 4 year monthly cycle to invert where we would start the new 4 year cycle in 2025.
#Monero $XMRUSD One Year AnalysisCRYPTO:XMRUSD
Keylevels / Range
$120: Lowest trend price. If the price closes below this level, it would signal a bearish trend.
$163: Lowest range price. A close below this level would unlock a new lower zone extending down to $120.
$203: Current price.
$233: Upper limit of the current channel/wedge.
$370: Long-term target.
Analysis:
Monero has been trading within a range of $183 to $206 for the past two weeks. The price has closed above $197 for the first time since May 2022. This move potentially unlocks a new range, reaching at least $233, where the upper limit of the current channel/wedge and a monthly/weekly supply zone are located.
A weekly close above $237 would strongly indicate the unlocking of a new charted zone extending from $237 to $370.
Coin Bio:
Monero (XMR), is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency launched in April 2014. It was originally forked from the Bytecoin blockchain. Unlike many other cryptocurrencies, Monero's primary focus is on ensuring the anonymity and untraceability of transactions.
Key features include:
Ring Signatures: Obfuscate the sender's identity.
Ring Confidential Transactions (RingCT): Hide the transaction amount.
Stealth Addresses: Create unique, one-time addresses for each transaction, obscuring the receiver's identity.
These features make Monero attractive to individuals seeking financial privacy and are a core differentiator in the cryptocurrency space. It's developed by an anonymous community of developers and has gained significant traction for its commitment to private and fungible transactions. While its focus on privacy can be controversial, it remains a prominent cryptocurrency with a dedicated user base. XRMUSD specifically refers to the trading pair of Monero against the US Dollar.
#CRYPTO #MONERO #XMRUSD #XMR #CRYPTOCURRENCY #AHMEDMESBAH
BTC dominance reveals how to navigate crypto cyclesHello everyone,
this one is for patient (long-term) traders/investors, not for those chasing daily gains or short term swings.
We are looking at BTC dominance chart. BTC dominance is currently at 60%, which is pretty high.
Everyone who follows cryptos for some time should know how crypto cycles work. BTC is king and always leads the way. BTC if the first one to start the bull run, altcoins follow. When BTC is near its peak, money transfers into ALTs --> start of ALTSEASON.
The first peak of altcoin season was January 2018. BTC dominance was at 35%. After Jan 2018 we went into a bear market. BTC dropped in value, ALTCOINS dropped even more. Consequently, BTC dominance went up.
BTC dominance reached top at 74% in Jan 2021. That is when ALTSEASON started.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT BTC REACHED TOP in Jan 2021.
BTC rose from 40k to 70k between Jan 2021 and Nov 2021, but ALTs in this period made bigger gains.
BTC dominance in this period plummeted from 74% to 40%, creating a base for future.
From Jan 2023 BTC has been rising and increasing its dominance, currently sitting at 60%. I am positive it will not break high of Jan 2018. Next strong resistance is in the area of 64-67%, I expect dominance to reverse in this area.
BTC has already made a new ATH, but total crypto market space is not at an ATH yet. So ALTs are lagging in comparison to previous cycle.
I believe we are at the start of ALT season and I will be looking into ALTs for my last gains this cycle. Check my other posts to see which ALTS I am considering. I will also be posting some other ALTs in coming days/weeks, so subscribe to stay notified.
Good luck to everyone.
EurUsd could drop under parity in 2025 (0.95 target)Now that 2024 has concluded, EUR/USD has ended the year at its lowest point, marking a 7% decline from January and a 9% drop from its summer peak.
Most notably, the pair fell 6% since November—a significant move for such a typically stable currency pair, highlighting strong bearish momentum.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD has shown a steady downtrend since its double top in August and September. Every meaningful reversal attempt was met with selling pressure, leading to a quick resumption of the downward trajectory.
The long-term (monthly) chart paints an even grimmer picture. The pair has been in a clear downtrend since its 2008 peak of 1.60, and it now sits precariously on critical support levels from the 2015 and 2017 lows.
Fundamental Outlook
The fundamentals align with the technical bearish trend. Diverging monetary policies and a bleak economic outlook for the EU add to the pair's struggles.
Conclusion:
Given these conditions, a drop below parity appears likely in the coming year. The most prudent trading strategy for EUR/USD is to sell into rallies and wait for further declines.
My target is 0.95, but, to be honest, I would not be very surprised by 0.9
$BTC Cheat Sheet They Don't Want You To See!THE CRYPTO CHEAT SHEET
After seeing this, don't let anyone tell you that trading the market is hard.
All you need is a 4-year mindset.
Sell in November (the latest) post-halving year, ie 2025
Buy in November the year after, ie 2026
It really is that simple.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC 👑
$BTC Cycle Elliot Wave AnalysisMore confluence on why this CRYPTOCAP:BTC cycle will perform similar to 2017 vs 2021.
If we look at Elliot Wave theory, we can see the first cycle (red) had a long 3rd wave and somewhat truncated 5th wave.
The second cycle (green) had a muted 3rd wave and extended 5th wave.
The third cycle performed similar to the first, which makes me believe the fourth cycle will perform similar to the second cycle.
It appears the ₿itcoin cycle flip-flops every other time.
*NOTE* I used Closing Candles for when drawing EW to cancel out noise.
**EW drawings are extremely subjective, hence why I don’t use often for analysis.
Niftythese days looks like same as
AUG- SEP-24 ME NIFTY TOP MAR RAHA THA ,LEKIN PORTFOLIO TUT RAHA THA
31-DEC -24 NIFTY NICHE JA RAHAHE LEKIN STOCKS PRICES SUSTAIN SE UPER HO RAHEHE
it seems made monthly low and if nifty fut sustain above 23900 should do well for 24200++
today nifty fut made open low 23500
also made 3 support zone 23300-500 range
new wave 5 targets on ada since deep wave 4 correction
in above mentioned idea i outlined most passive targets on ada. Today there was a impulsive weekly Candle that take off ada to 10% 24h pump as only coin in top 10 .
Just for the bigger Picture that means ADAs marketcap pumped from 40 to 44billion dollars in1-2 days 4 billion on top thats massive. As iam in that market since 2017 i learned if ada pumps that hard out of nothing, that is a superb sign of outperforming next days.
New Target
1,47 minimum up to 1,70$ in a normal wavecount scenario
INFO:
if alt season starts my targets probable are nonsense because ada will rise much higher
If BTC dumps then all alts including ada will dump to. Then the Chart needs a new point of view and analysing.
Alt Season: The Calm Before the Storm?Hi fellow traders, Crypto21Official here! 🚀
After a strong impulse in the crypto market, we’ve had a teaser of what could be an alt season. The crypto market cap chart (excluding the top 10) showed a beautiful surge to $450 billion, a key level that marked the recent high.
Since then, we’ve retraced around 27%, and the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. Right now, we’re dipping into a key buy zone, where I’ve marked a potential double-bottom pattern. If confirmed, this could signal a bullish reversal and set the stage for further growth.
On the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, we still see room for dominance to rise slightly before a healthy decline could pave the way for a full-blown alt season. Historically, such patterns have preceded explosive altcoin growth.
Why Could January Be a Game-Changer?
Tax-Loss Harvesting Rebound: As the year ends, investors often sell assets to optimize for tax benefits. By January, these funds tend to flow back into the market, sparking renewed interest.
U.S. Election Cycle Momentum: Political developments surrounding the U.S. election cycle could act as a macro catalyst, influencing risk-on markets like crypto.
Historical Patterns: As we’ve seen before:
Bitcoin typically leads the market with a strong rally.
Altcoins dip or consolidate.
Then, altcoins blast off, following Bitcoin’s momentum. 🚀
My Take
I remain bullish, expecting January to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin, which could open the floodgates for altcoins to follow. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Let’s see if the market plays along. 🌕
What are your thoughts? Are we on the brink of something big? Let me know below! 👇
Bitcoin: Entering New Presidential CycleCharts are essential, but it’s equally important to stay aware of major events that can significantly impact markets. Alongside this, I’ll share some theoretical insights.
Market During Presidencies:
The chart tracks the S&P 500’s growth on a logarithmic scale, highlighting U.S. presidential terms by party since 1933. Blue areas represent Democrat presidencies, and red areas indicate Republican presidencies. It shows that the market has grown steadily over time, despite fluctuations tied to economic cycles, policies, and global events. Key trends include significant growth during Clinton and Obama presidencies (dot-com boom, post-2008 recovery) and slower growth during Nixon and Carter presidencies. The chart also reflects recent market gains under Trump and Biden, despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, it demonstrates consistent long-term market growth under both political parties, driven by a mix of policies and external factors.
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE
"Presidential Cycle" in trading refers to a theory that financial markets tend to follow a recurring pattern tied to the four-year term of U.S. presidential administrations. This cycle is based on the idea that government policies and political events during a president’s term can influence economic conditions and market behavior in predictable ways.
PHASES:
Post-Election Year
Stock Market: New or re-elected presidents introduce reforms that may unsettle markets. Slower growth and higher volatility are common as policies stabilize.
₿ Market:
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant growth following U.S. presidential elections. For instance, after the 2016 election, Bitcoin’s price increased by over 2,500% in the subsequent year.
Potential Impact:
The resolution of electoral uncertainty typically restores market stability. Additionally, newly introduced policies can foster investor confidence, making alternative assets like Bitcoin more appealing. If these policies are crypto-friendly, they could accelerate Bitcoin adoption and drive price appreciation.
Midterm Year
Stock Market: Midterm elections create political uncertainty, often causing market corrections. The second half of the year typically sees recovery as clarity improves.
₿ Market:
Bitcoin may experience corrections or slower growth during midterm years. For example, in 2018, Bitcoin’s price declined significantly, aligning with the midterm election period.
Potential Impact:
Midterm elections can lead to shifts in political power, creating regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market. This could deter institutional investors or slow Bitcoin’s momentum. However, as the political landscape becomes clearer, the market could stabilize, potentially paving the way for future growth.
Pre-Election Year
Stock Market: Historically the strongest year, with administrations boosting the economy. Market-friendly policies lead to stronger performance and public support.
₿ Market:
Pre-election years have often been bullish for Bitcoin. In 2019, Bitcoin’s price saw substantial gains, rising from around $3,700 in January to over $13,000 by June.
Potential Impact:
Increased government spending and the anticipation of policy changes often stimulate economic activity, benefiting risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This optimism can lead to higher investor participation and significant price increases as the market factors in favorable policy expectations.
Election Year
Stock Market: Election uncertainty heightens volatility, but clarity post-election boosts markets. Performance depends on the perceived business-friendliness of leading candidates.
₿ Market:
Bitcoin has shown mixed reactions during election years. In 2020, despite initial volatility, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high post-election, suggesting that the resolution of political uncertainty can positively influence its price.
Potential Impact:
The election outcome often dictates the regulatory direction for cryptocurrencies. A pro-crypto administration could fuel optimism and attract new investors, while stricter regulations could introduce headwinds. Regardless, the post-election clarity often drives market confidence, benefiting Bitcoin’s valuation.
Chronological Flow of Events Fueling Bitcoin’s Exponential Growth
Shift to CFTC Regulation
Trump proposed moving crypto regulation from the SEC to the CFTC, creating a friendlier environment to foster innovation and boost investor confidence.
Institutional and Retail Adoption
Bitcoin became accessible through retirement accounts and ETFs, driving demand from both institutions and retail investors.
Market Sentiment and Musk’s Influence
Endorsements from Elon Musk (Trump's circle) sparked optimism, fueling rallies and increasing crypto adoption.
Geopolitical Competition
The U.S. aimed to lead the crypto space, countering China’s dominance and stabilizing Bitcoin’s market.
Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
A proposed U.S. Bitcoin reserve would position it alongside gold, boosting demand and global legitimacy.
J.D. Vance’s Proposal to Devalue the U.S. Dollar
Vance’s plan to weaken the dollar to boost exports contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21m coins, which makes it an inflation-resistant alternative to fiat currencies. Bitcoin’s finite supply and decentralized nature make it a strong hedge during monetary policy uncertainty, further solidifying its role as a store of value. Vance’s proposal inadvertently highlights the vulnerabilities of fiat currencies, positioning Bitcoin as a compelling alternative in a volatile economic landscape.
Holiday Effect
Bitcoin’s performance is influenced by alignment of market sentiment, economic factors, and geopolitical events with holiday seasonality known as the “holiday effect” during major holidays like Christmas and New Year.
🏛️ FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve operates independently of the President and Congress, focusing on economic goals like controlling inflation, maintaining employment, and ensuring stability. While the President appoints members to the Board of Governors, these appointments require Senate confirmation and fixed terms, insulating monetary policy from political influence. This structure safeguards long-term economic stability and credibility.
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance faces significant challenges due to the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and cautious approach to cryptocurrencies. The Fed has historically expressed skepticism about decentralized assets, citing concerns over financial stability, regulatory risks, and potential misuse. Instead, it prioritizes initiatives like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), such as a digital dollar, which could compete with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
This divergence underscores a conflict of goals: pro-crypto policies encourage innovation and adoption, while the Fed views decentralized cryptocurrencies as a challenge to its control over monetary policy and the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status. Additionally, the Fed collaborates with other regulatory agencies, like the SEC and Treasury, which have traditionally taken a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, while Trump’s policies may boost private crypto adoption and innovation, the Federal Reserve’s focus on financial stability and its own priorities, like CBDCs, limits the broader impact of these policies. This highlights the difficulty of aligning political aspirations with the Fed’s institutional priorities.
GALA 300% Next MovePrice is coiling up for the second half of this fractal pattern (Rally C) and I'm looking
at a bottom some time around February as the last pattern took off around the same time
The reason for this forecast to hit the Demand level again is because of the divergence move
seen on the Trend Reader, and the fractal pattern itself calls for a retest back to demand
Long term EMA is projecting flat readings for the future and this can also give us a signal for
price to slam back down.
Trend Reader
The Short Term Signal Line is racing back to the oversold zone and once the crossover takes effect we should see price shoot back up
Looking back at the Long Term Signal Line its projecting that long term momentum is dying off
and that after we hit this next high we can expect price to selloff like shown before with
the last divergence pattern.
Targets
7.7 Cents
13 Cents
16 Cents