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COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching). OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish. Spread: Bearishly diverging. ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity. Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks) Target #1 = $24.85 Target #2 = $26.00 Target #3 = $28.00+ A stop exists below $20.00.
AMEX:HIBSLong
by WorthlessViews
Oracle ($ORCL) Gap-Fill & Earning Jump PlayTheory : Oracle has a history of significant price gaps after earnings reports. The stock is currently trading within an ascending channel and has an open gap from the last earnings. I expect a pullback to close this gap before the next earnings report triggers a potential upward gap. Ideal Entry Point : 142.51 - 144.97 USD (after the gap fills and the price hits channel support). Profit Taker : Targeting 192.27-195.02 USD (2 weeks range after earnings report), aligning with the top of the ascending channel and historical earnings reactions. This move represents a potential 35%+ gain. Disclaimer : This idea is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a professional, and you should do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by elka_graph
3
Comparison: $TSLA and $PLTR S&P 500 InclusionComparison: NASDAQ:TSLA and NYSE:PLTR S&P 500 Inclusion Palantir Technologies is set to join the S&P 500 on September 23, 2024 This milestone mirrors Tesla's inclusion in the index back on December 21, 2020 - Tesla's Journey: Prior to its S&P 500 inclusion, Tesla's stock experienced a significant upward trend, which continued for several weeks post-inclusion before entering a prolonged period of sideways consolidation for almost a year (chart above) - Palantir's Path: Interestingly, Palantir's stock price trajectory in the months leading up to its S&P 500 inclusion shows striking similarities to Tesla's pre-inclusion performance (chart below) Do you think that Palantir will behave similarly to Tesla after the inclusion? i.e.: - Short-term: Further upward trend in the immediate weeks following its inclusion - Long-term: A possible sideways consolidation, akin to Tesla's post-inclusion phase
P
by OfficerDonut
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached 60K$!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for buying positions after Bitcoin corrects to the specified demand zone Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk Off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Sales from the specified supply zone will be rewarded with appropriate risk It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
Which Presidential Term Year is the Most Profitable?An intriguing question from a recent client call led me to dive into the data. Here's what I uncovered about the relationship between presidential term years and stock market returns. The Analysis Data: Historical SPX (S&P 500) returns Grouping: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of presidential terms Visualization: Each line represents returns for a specific term year Color Key 1st year: Red 2nd year: Orange 3rd year: Green 4th year: Yellow Total SPX: White Combined 1st + 3rd years: Purple Key Findings The Winner: 3rd Year The third year of presidential terms significantly outperforms others, beating 2nd and 4th years by a notable margin. Runner-up: 1st Year Surprisingly, the first year takes second place. Perhaps the optimism surrounding a new presidency plays a role? Underperformers: 2nd and 4th Years 2nd years appear relatively uneventful. 4th years (election years) show more volatility, likely due to electoral uncertainty. Combined Power of 1st and 3rd Years The purple line (1st + 3rd years combined) closely tracks the total SPX return (white line), suggesting these two years drive a significant portion of overall market gains. Important Notes Not every year within each category showed positive returns. The analysis reveals average trends, not guarantees for future performance. Food for Thought How might this insight influence long-term investment strategies? What factors could explain the 3rd year's outperformance? Does this pattern hold true across different economic cycles or administrations? What's your take on this analysis? Does it shift your perspective on market cycles or political terms?
SP:SPX
by marketscripters
Crypto Alternatives Reaching Extremes Please study and look back on the history of CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D This trendline has acted as major support with each touch marking key reversal points of alts before moves higher or at the very least moving away from their lows. Light blue is CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS with the grey boxes marking the touch points and the yellow vertical lines being the BTC halving dates. I believe we are here in the cycle with regards to alts and BTC: Last cycle we had a shorter bottom base and accumulation period followed by a longer consolidation period before the halving. This time around we see longer bottom base and somewhat shorter consolidation period these past 5 months. The white dashed line marks the mid line of the bottom base and then price recovering back into the high liquidity/ consolidation zone. And it just so happens that we're in a better setup this time around than last cycle imo. Super HTF head and shoulders: 2019: 2024: Current BTC outlook: IMO any bids of strong alts or only the majors in this 1.5T to 2T zone is a great entry. You can see I included the google trend plot for the search "bitcoin" which is good gauge of sentiment, interest, and tops/ bottoms. Buy when no one is talking about it or cares. Sell when interest peaks and everyone is talking about it. A lot left in this cycle IMO but it will take some time for things to play out.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by bhx10
1
GBPJPY - 12/09/2024 Market AnalysisYesterday, GBPJPY created a significant low and found strong support around the 184.000 level, leading to a bullish rejection and forming a daily candle with clear rejection signals. Given this price action, there are potential buy setups to watch for during the London session. However, it's important to stay cautious as we have PPI news scheduled for 10:30 PM, approximately 30 minutes after the New York open. This data release is known for its volatility, so it's advisable to wait for the news to pass before entering any trades to avoid unnecessary risk.
by arpitdahal
1
Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 & Federal Funds Rate 1998 vs 2024A Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 SP:SPX and Federal Funds Rate - 1998 vs. 2024 Historical Context: (the lower chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 1994-2004) 1998: - On September 29, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.25% - The interest cuts fueled the tech bubble, leading to a sharp rise in the S&P 500 over the next two years - By 1999, as the Fed started increasing rates again, this contributed to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 Current Scenario: (the upper chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 2020-2030) 2024: - The federal funds rate now stands between 5.25-5.5% - Anticipation is high for a rate cut on September 18, possibly by 25 or 50 basis points, mirroring the scenario of 1998 - Today, instead of a tech bubble, we're witnessing the emergence of an AI bubble Future Speculations: - AI Bubble Expansion: With the FED potentially lowering rates, this could accelerate the AI bubble, propelling the S&P 500 to new heights over the next 1-2 years - Inflation Concerns: Lower interest rates might reignite inflation by 2025. If history repeats, the Fed might then hike rates again, risking a burst of the AI bubble post-2025 Conclusion: While this analysis draws parallels with historical data, it remains speculative However, the pattern aligns with economic cycles, particularly the 18-year property cycle and the broader economic super cycle that began in 2008 -> Do you think this scenario is realistic?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
2
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively. 🔵𝚆𝙷𝙰𝚃 𝙸𝚂 𝙰 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴? A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production. Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew. 🔵𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚂𝙴𝙰𝚂𝙾𝙽𝚂 𝙾𝙵 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚈𝙴𝙰𝚁 Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play: Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases. Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns. Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow. Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts nature’s growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens. 🔵𝙸𝙼𝙿𝙰𝙲𝚃 𝙾𝙵 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙾𝙽 𝙳𝙸𝙵𝙵𝙴𝚁𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝚂𝙴𝙲𝚃𝙾𝚁𝚂 Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services. For example: Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending. Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant. Crypto Sector: SP500: 🔵𝙽𝙰𝚅𝙸𝙶𝙰𝚃𝙸𝙽𝙶 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝚂 𝙰𝙽 𝙸𝙽𝚅𝙴𝚂𝚃𝙾𝚁 Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns. Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing. Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated. Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur. 🔵𝙶𝙾𝚅𝙴𝚁𝙽𝙼𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝙿𝙾𝙻𝙸𝙲𝙸𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment. Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. 🔵𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙲𝙻𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙾𝙽 Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations. Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
VANTAGE:SP500Education
by BigBeluga
3
SMH forming a long downward trendSMH failed to make new highs after the last rally and now forming downward trend At the peak of July 10 we have seen a continued decline in SMH overall Latest rally peaked in August 21 coming in much lower than July 10 As SMH gradually sold off it also helped form a strong resistance line painting a long term grim picture We are in late cycle investing at the moment. This is helping solidify that the longer term risk assets have begun SMH is looking like the leader in the tech sell off so far. Recommend preparing your portfolio by rotating out of risk assets over to more defense ETFs
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint
Bitcoin: Hodlers VS Cruisers VS TradersAnother very outside-the-box trend that I discovered while going down an INTOTHEBLOCK rabbit hole was the Holders' Composition by Time Held leading into the parabolic phase. These CRYPTOCAP:BTC Coin balances are a metric powered by INTOTHEBLOCK that shows ownership distribution over time. What is a Hodler Balance? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one year or longer. These are long-term investors. An increase in this metric shows long-term bullish sentiment. What is a Cruiser? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one - twelve months. These addresses are what we would consider swing traders. The transfer from Cruiser balance to Trader balance can be seen as bearish sentiment and the transfer from Trader to Cruiser can been seen as bullish sentiment. What is a Trader? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC less than one month. These are short term balances of day traders, bot trading, etc. An increase in this metric would indicate volatility and a potential bearish sentiment in the market. With that being said about the Trader Balance, on 10/22/20 we can see a (+6%) uptick in Trader balances and a (-2%) down in Cruiser Balances showing investors taking profits and trading into the volatility. On 4/20/24, the Trader Balance crossed the Cruiser Balance solidifying this accumulation period. They started closing in on each other at the end of July, Post-Bitcoin Conference w/Trump speech + JPY reverse-carry trade unwinding + Mega Tech FC. Now they have returned the their early July numbers. KEY TAKEAWAY: You will see a flow into TRADERSBALANCE, out of CRUISERSBALANCE AND HODLERSBALANCE when the market has officially accepted we have entered the parabolic phase of this bull cycle. Look for a flow change and TRADERSBALANCE | CRUISERBALANCE cross between 10/8 & 10/22.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW