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Seasonality
Long Idea on CC1! (Cocoa)1)Climate change is having a significant impact on cocoa production in West and Central Africa, according to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The region accounts for more than 70% of global cocoa production. Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation.
2) Seasonality gives us a bullish pattern which is 98% correlated with the actual price
3)quantitative data shows 80% win rate with a good profit factor
4) The price rejected the 50 EMA forming a Pin Bar Candlestick pattern
5) The price also bounced on a demand zone
6) Price is undervalued against several benchmarks
Short idea on KC1! (Coffee)1) COT Data shows the commercials reaching the short extremes on weekly timeframe
2) Seasonality shows a bearish pattern
3)Quantitative analysis shows 80% win rate for shorts
4) Coffe is Overvalued against different benchmarks
5) High quality supply zone
6)88% correlation between the actual price and the 10y seasonality
BTC & ALTCOINSIn this chart we can see Bitcoin historical Highs , lows , halving years (green->green) and halvings ... we can see some patterns here , not price patterns but sessionality patterns .. for example .. strong probabilty next btc HIGH will be in November/December this year , or we can also see on chart of BTC.D .. we are close to date when BTC.D breaks and fall as much as alts shine .. But all of this was history what about today ? What if , in this one cycle is something different , for example players ... Old good BTC and Crypto OG players now have less power as manipulators , we have some guys from wallstreet also here , Trump and much more .. Macroeconomic was totaly changed ... so what do you think guys ?
Wave 1 as leading diagonal (better chart pic)
I think it's worth bearing in mind that we could see some significant downside during the lull at the end of Q1. Red for Valantines, Green for St Patrick's.
This shows how we may never have transitioned into wave 2, but may actually be about to finish wave 1 as a leading diagonal.
We could be looking at wave 2 as a running/ expanding flat, in which case we see a significant rally, but something is niggling at me about this.
Watch the break of the high at $3.39, I'll be looking at the 4hr RSI to see if there's divergence. A close above with that divergence will possibly spell more downside than just a subwave correction.
GBP/USD - Long PositionHi all..
If you have been following my updates on this pair you may have been catching a few nice setups. I did in fact catch this previous impulse move which was predicted from that marked Demand zone..
What we have no though is a new trading range. This is quite an interesting range to try to breakdown as we don't really have many level to actually buy from.
All the potential levels found are all from very low TF which suggest they all possibly could be weak levels to buy from.
The only try level I currently see to buy from is the level right at the top where my first Demand zone is sitting, this is my safest Demand due to "true" market consolidation which occurs before the next impulse movement.
Its potential that the move we have seen actually isn't finished which is why i believe this range could be a good area to buy from.
for me personally its not enough confluence to set a trade idea as it doesn't meet my plan.
This is not financial advice.. Good luck to all the traders that decide to follow
Short Idea On ZC1! (Corn)1)On Cot data,we can see the commercials shorting at the extremes.
2)Seasonality gives us a short bias and quantitative data shows 80% win rate for shorts.
3) We overvalued on daily and weekly timeframe against several benchmarks
4) On weekly timeframe,the price rejected the EMA Forming a Pin bar reversal
5) I set the entry and stoploss on the supply structure as you can see in the picture
FCN trade coming upI got stopped in early already and price made one more down, but on the longer term (until mid of april) we should see some good gains.
This is not a trade call, but looking for a buy via a candle stick pattern or something you like and understand could be a provitable trade.
good luck!
cheers!
Refreshing the conversation. Showing my learners under the hoodRecently I've been lucky enough to mentor an 18 year old into the world of crypto and the markets
Being able to speak with wisdom instead of trying to factor in a ridged mindset gave me the freedom to speak about where MTOPS truly originated from
Listen in with an open mind