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Seasonaltendencies

Bitcoin Drawdown☣️ Looking at the Bitcoin drawdown, we can see that the drop in percentage terms has already surpassed the COVID-day drop. ❓ Will the drawdown reach the same level as December 3, 2018, with a drop of 84.22%? 📈 If that happens, the price would come in at the 0.382 Fibonacci projection at $10,190. 🎅 And it would be a big coincidence to happen in the same month of December. 📅 Another great coincidence is that the biggest drawdowns happened between the months of November/December/January/March. 🤔 So, theoretically, in the worst case, the fund would be uncovered by March 2023. Theoretically.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by andre_007
Corn Corn Corn 🌽🌽🌽This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means: I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer. According to seasonality, the low should occur around September. Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns. IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high. IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top. I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by p4917
1
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL: We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ... Contra arguments: $DXY is rising / interest rates are going up ... anything else? I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
AMEX:SOXLLong
by p4917
💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale. That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too. Looking at the technicals: We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move. According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June . Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November. No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by p4917
5
Buy Domino's 🍕???Technicals We're now at the 38.2 % Fib retracement, which would be an excellent correction in a bullish trend. We have been in the big picture for over ten years in a bullish trend. So the underlying trend may continue. Concerning the last 15 years, we have a robust bullish seasonality in Domino's Pizza. From the 24th of Feb until the 12th of May, only one year returned with a negative result in the given period. All other technicals are somewhat bearish. Others? I think that even when the economy collapses - people will still eat pizza (and order them ;) ). So I'm positioned long in this stock. It's a speculative position - I don't know if the correction was big enough; otherwise, we will see 395 or even 355 USD prices before it goes up again.
NYSE:DPZLong
by p4917
🔜 bullish move ahead!Technicals The 50 % retracement of the correction from the bullish movement from the high last April was reached. It's a healthy correction so far. We're above the EMA 17 and SMA 30 and 50 on a daily basis. An inverse shoulder-head-shoulder-formation has been built and already broken. As we have cut through the SMA 200 (red) without any major resistance the last time(s), we could consider it not a significant resistance when moving upwards. We've got a bullish seasonal pattern in HEI over the last 15 years considering Seasonality. 80 % win rate in the date range from the 24th of February until the 9th of May. Fundamentals A growth by 1.5 % in 2022 is expected in the construction sector: www.bauindustrie.de Construction volume is growing in 2022: www.tga-fachplaner.de Economic growth is expected in the construction industry: www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de So I'm bullishly invested.
XETR:HEILong
by p4917
This is nuts, or I'm nuts--or BOTHMaybe this is well known among the crypto community. I don't know. I'm kinda here in my own little bubble. I was organizing and setting up a ginormous list of crypto charts when I noticed that there were a few odd coincidences about the 2021 rallies. In my estimate, there were three major rallies last year (Spring, Summer, Fall) and two minor ones (January, December). Many--most--of the cryptos I was charting would start going on bullish rallies at the same time. Not much of a surprise there. Wherever Bitcoin goes, everyone follows. I used the Date and Price Range tool to explore this curiosity. What I found interesting was that the rallies tended to start on the second-to-last week of the month. Not all of them did, but most did. The coins that followed these trends had been around for a while. New coins took a few months to find their sea legs, and then they follow the same flow. Some didn't have a rally in autumn. I kept seeing this pattern, so I set up a Google Sheet and crunched the numbers of 20 popular coins. Here was what I found. Spring Rally Start - March 25 or 26 (37.5%) | April 25 or 26 (43.8%) Summer Rally Start - July 21 (100%) Autumn Rally Start - Sept 21 or 22 (16.6%) | Sept 29 (75%) OTHER OBSERVATIONS - Percentagewise, newer coins enjoyed greater gains than the more popular Bitcoin, Etherium, and Litecoin. - For a majority of coins, the rallies lasted 40-50 days for summer and autumn rallies. I measured from the first to last green bars in definite reversals. Out of the 20 that I checked, they ranked as follows: SPRING RALLY TOP FIVE MATIC 535.31% LUNA 311.24% XRP 274.79% BNB 195.42% DOGE 174.18% SPRING RALLY BOTTOM FIVE BTC 30.06% ALGO 44.88% AVAX 52.98% ATOM 59.79% ETH 62.41% SUMMER RALLY TOP FIVE SOL 737.22% LUNA 638.88% AVAX 531.77% ATOM 382.08% DOT 250.04% SUMMER RALLY BOTTOM FIVE BTC 76.76% WBTC 79.69% BNB 93.60% DOGE 99.41% UNI 109.44% AUTUMN RALLY TOP FIVE MATIC 175.74% AVAX 152.27% LUNA 118.76% DOT 106.55% SOL 100.17% AUTUMN RALLY BOTTOM FIVE UNI 41.97% XRP 43.54% DASH 60.07% BTC 64.53% LINK 64.95% These were the percentage gains for the Spring, Summer, and Autumn Rallies. Those that didn't get rallies I just blanked them. ATOM 59.79% 382.08% DOT 65.52% 250.04% 106.55% LUNA 311.24% 638.88% 118.76% BTC 30.06% 76.76% 64.53% ALGO 44.88% 226.58% SOL 125.24% 737.22% 100.17% LINK 105.31% 153.27% 64.95% XRP 274.79% 162.94% 43.54% WBTC 79.69% 65.83% ETH 62.41% 125.60% 73.54% BNB 195.42% 93.60% 98.74% LTC 73.74% 121.38% 87.54% MATIC 535.31% 160.93% 175.74% ADA 116.96% 180.54% AVAX 52.98% 531.77% 152.27% DASH 135.27% 117.89% 60.07% SUSHI 133.88% DOGE 174.18% 99.41% UNI 109.44% 41.97% MY TAKEAWAYS Maybe this is a psychological cycle. Many were expecting that January Bounce that the stock market usually gets, but that didn't happen. Crypto works on different cycles. So if this whackadoodle observation has any prophecy, anticipate seasonal rallies to start around the 21st to 29th of a month. Everyone's talking about Bitcoin and Etherium hitting major supports--I believe the supports that launched the Autumn Rally. If the rally starts, though, I wouldn't focus on the Crypto-Biggies like BTC and ETH. I'd watch SOL, AVAX, MATIC, and definitely LUNA.
by ZenKimchi
3
Is it possible that the BTC be 9K again? Attention! Before start reading this article remember what is going to be read by you here, is totally against S2F model, which is a really an excellent and principled way to predict price, and suggest a dramatic drop in BTC price. Also it relies on seasonal analytics, which are very accurate kind of analysis, but has not been sufficiently tested on bitcoin because BTC is almost a new trading instrument. Another point of this analysis is to present relatively accurate times and prices in relatively distant times, which is completely contrary to the basic principles of technical analysis, as a result, I ask readers if the predicted scenario in this analysis occurred, try to analyze and predict prices and times in a shorter period of time according to their own trading strategy. As the author of this analysis, I believe that it is impossible to accurately predict the price over this time interval, so if the price go ahead with this scenario, I will take into account the price and time differences with this scenario in my trades. Halving double the cost of BTC mining and anticipation of a relative decline in supply, will increase prices, so trough of price could be seen about 400 to 500 days before halving. Those times are best to buy. Halving make a realizable seasonality for BTC price, as it could be seen in the chart, BTCUSD could be divided to ascending and descending periods which each last for around 111 weeks. Halving happens during the ascending periods since price started its growth before halving, In the first ascending period a gain of about 52500% accomplished which followed by a descending period resulted to a 86% drop and price started to grow about 78 bars before halving. A value loss of 66%, could be seen at end of 111 weeks of descending period comparing to ATH (all time high) Again, the next ascending period which last 111 weekly bars ends to a gain, but a more gentle growth of about 12575%. The remarkable thing happen here. AGAIN, a max drop of around 83% which is so near to 86% and loss of around 66%, almost similar to the last descending period, happened after its last ascending period. The number 111 seems to be sacred in our analysis and this week is the 111th week, potentially last week, of the recent uptrend period. What will happen then? A potential downtrend period may start. By a lookback to the past a loss of 80% to 86% is expectable. If history repeats itself BTC will reverse from somewhere between 13K and 9K between Sep of 2022 and Mar of 2023 and will reach to 24K at Dec of 2023. If all that happen Sep of 2022, days when only crypto lovers remember the king BTC, is the best place for holders to begin adding more digital assets to their holdings. The most important question! The first uptrend period ends to a max growth of around 52500% the next ends to an approximately 12575% growth, by occurrence of the scenario, the last growth would be just around 2121%! What will be the next max growth? By using the “number series” method to predict the next number it is calculated as 577.875% or around 575% which means a reversed BTC from 13K will reach to 87750 in around 220 Weeks (Jan of 2026)!!! Regards, Ali
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AliSignals
6
Dollar Strength-Mid September OutlookHello Traders, As of right now, this is my outlook and potential targets on the Dollar Index. The equity market beginning to weaken during August/September and dollar gaining strength is cyclical to the transition from q3 to q4. Which beginning in October, DXY typically will lose strength, while the equity market regains strength from September weakness. I expect TVC:DXY to continue to rise until the end of the month and possibly consolidate for a few days at the highs before we start seeing bearish movement. COT Analysis: Commercials have added even more short positions and are still overall net SHORT. However, long positions have been added by leveraged funds and the commercials, which makes sense that they're in a sell program even with temporary dollar strength. Technical Analysis: August is currently sitting as the nearest intermediate high where we can either go to retest the OB then fall down, or we can completely take out August's high, tap into the monthly OB which is at 93.800 then fall. If 93.800 is broken, then reanalysis will be given. Why is the dollar gaining strength? Seasonal tendency & It failed to take out its nearest intermediate lows. Before shifting to a bearish market structure, liquidity will have to be accumulated as short positions are added by commercials during the temporary strength. 93.600s line up with 85-93% retracement levels, as well as a 70% extension from the intraday current high and low. Bullish Fundamental Catalyst: 1. Fed: Rumors of easing asset purchases, rate hikes, tapering talks, powell does not get reappointed 2. Economic Recovery: lower inflation figures, GDP growth, healthy labor market, strong demand for treasury, consumer spending. ( higher cpi figures) 3. Monetary Policy: cash shortage if ceiling is not raised, US default, deflationary shock, increased capital earning taxes, global supply chain disruptions with companies not being able to have enough supply to meet customer demand. Bearish Fundamental Catalyst: 1. Fed: halting tapering process to wait for more data on economic recovery, powell gets reappointment next year, increased stimulus/asset purchasing, fed increasing inflation targets to 3-3.5%. 2. Slow down of economic recovery (lower cpi figures), decline in fixed income with a rise in equity market, and increased inflation figures. 3. Monetary Policy: increase to debt ceiling, 3.5 trillion spending package gets approved, any other government spending increases. 4. Delta variant cases begin to grow, travel restrictions and lockdown increases. GLGT :)
TVC:DXYLong
by stimichele
2
Seasonal Indigestion In Stocks At The End Of Q3The fall months are my favorite. The cool weather is a welcome change from the hot and humid days of summer. There are few sights more pleasing than the turning of the leaves over the coming weeks as the change works its way from north to south as temperatures drop. The stock market has more than a few bad memories during the fall season. The great crash of 1929 occurred in October, as did the 1987 plunge in share prices. In 2008, an October plunge was the most significant stock market decline during the global financial crisis. September 20th was a reminder ‘Tis the season to be cautious The Fed remains accommodative- The debt is a compelling reason Taxes are the problem A correction is overdue, but that does not mean it is coming Last week, we witnessed the first signs of fall indigestion in the stock market, which had risen to its most recent all-time high on September 2. September 20th was a reminder Last Monday, the stock market fell. After making a new record high on September 2, the S&P 500 had been making lower highs leading to the most substantial decline in months. As the chart highlights, the S&P 500 rose to another all-time high at 4,545.85 on September 2, made lower highs, and dropped on Monday, September 20, reaching a low of 4,305.91, a 5.3% decline. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the correction was long overdue. By the end of last week, the index was back at the 4,455 level after filling the gap on the short-term chart. However, it remained below the 4,471.52 level, the September 17 high. September 20 was a reminder that the potential for a substantial correction has increased with each new high in the S&P 500. ‘Tis the season to be cautious The stock market always gets the jitters in the early fall. Memories of price carnage during October crashes are indelibly etched in trader’s and investor’s minds. For those that did not live through or forgot the 1987 and 2008 selloffs, the financial media reminds them of the danger at this time of the year. The media pundits know that provoking fear makes for great copy and increased viewership. After all, the media’s primary job is selling advertising. Fear makes more people tune in each day for longer to keep tabs on what is happening. Meanwhile, it is the season to be cautious in the fall of 2021 because bullish and bearish factors are pulling the stock market in opposite directions. The long-term price trend remains bullish, and most investors are long stocks. However, rising interest rates and taxes are not bullish for stocks, and they are on the horizon. The Fed remains accommodative- The debt is a compelling reason Last week, we heard from the US central bank as the Federal Open Market Committee held its September meeting. The outcome was a non-event as the Fed kept the Fed Funds rate at zero percent and did not alter its quantitative easing debt security purchases at $120 billion per month. The decision was unanimous. Meanwhile, the devil was in the details as the central bank told the market that it could begin tapering quantitative easing before the end of 2021. It also guided that a consensus of members believe liftoff from zero percent short-term rates would occur in late 2022, with three to four increases in the Fed Funds rate coming in 2023. The projections depend on inflation averaging over 2% for an “extended” period and a move towards full employment. Chairman Powell put more meat on the bone at his press conference, making him sound more hawkish on monetary policy than the statement. He said QE tapering could begin as early as at the next meeting and could finish in mid-2022. If the Fed begins tapering in November at a rate of $15 billion per month, it will complete the process by July 2022. At that point, the central bank could consider increasing short-term rates. Tapering is not tightening; it is just less monetary policy accommodation. Many issues over the coming months could stall a move towards setting the stage for tightening credit, which could weigh on stocks and other asset prices as bonds compete with other asset classes for investment capital. Meanwhile, the US government is working to unleash an unprecedented $3.5 trillion budget package and another $1 trillion in infrastructure spending. The government also needs to increase the debt ceiling as it bumps up against the current $28.5 trillion level. At the end of last week, it stood above that level at the $28.8 trillion level. As the Fed moves slowly to tighten credit, the government’s fiscal policy will more than compensate, allowing targeted stimulus to flood the financial system. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place as increasing interest rates will cause the cost of servicing debt to rise substantially. Each twenty-five-basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate causes debt servicing costs to rise by an incredible $72 billion. The debt is a compelling reason for the Fed to remain highly accommodative. If Chairman Powell is unwilling to go along with the government’s spendthrift agenda, expect a replacement. Chairman Powell’s hawkish tone at the latest press conference could turn out to be his swan song. Progressive Democrats have told President Biden they want him to replace the sitting Fed chief when his term expires in 2022. The left-wing of the President’s party wants a Fed Chair that follows climate change and equity initiatives. Any replacement will sing a far more dovish tune for monetary policy than the sitting Fed Chairman. A replacement would likely light another inflationary fuse, due to a far slower approach to tapering and increasing the Fed Funds rate. Taxes are the problem The bills are coming due for the global pandemic, and they are enormous. Meanwhile, the spending continues as climate change, and social initiatives are going to cost trillions. The administration has rolled out its plan to increase corporate taxes and taxes on the “wealthiest” Americans with incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for married couples, along with bumping up capital gains rates, inheritance, and many other taxes. Meanwhile, the increases may not scratch the surface in paying for the spending, but it could throw a monkey wrench into markets. Higher corporate rates will cause prices to rise as corporations pass along the costs to consumers. Higher taxes will leave less capital for share buybacks, and earnings will likely decline from projected levels. The bottom line is that higher taxes are likely to weigh on stocks. Higher taxes and rising interest rates could create a potent bearish cocktail for the stock market over the coming weeks and months. A correction is overdue, but that does not mean it is coming All signs point to an ugly correction in the stock market. However, signals can be misleading. When the US elected Donald Trump as the 45th President, many analysts predicted the stock market would fall like a stone, but it exploded higher. Other analysts thought that putting Joe Biden in the Oval Office would mean a severe correction in the last election. Stocks continued to make new highs. Higher taxes and rising interest rates are a prescription for lower stock prices, but they are not guaranteed. The Fed plans are to eliminate QE by mid-2022 and begin the liftoff from a zero percent Fed Funds rate late next year. However, there may be a new economist at the head of the central bank with a far more progressive agenda in 2022. Meanwhile, the budget and tax increases need Congressional approval, which is not guaranteed. The bottom line is that moderate Democrats and Republicans are not in favor of adding trillions to the US debt and increasing taxes that will filter down to all consumers. There are lots of what ifs facing the stock market over the coming weeks and months, which could cause lots of volatility on the up and the downside. Follow those trends; they are your only friends. Ignore the experts as no one has any idea about the future. Remember, the current level of the stock market is always the right level. More aggressive buying or selling will establish the path of least resistance of prices. Go with the flow! There is seasonal indigestion at the end of Q3. The future is uncertain. Put aside the fear and embrace the trends. We will find out soon if the price action on September 20 was the start of a correction or a one-day wonder that will put the market on a course for even higher highs. -- Join us for the Monday Night Call each week - link included below. There's also a link to sign up for early access to these articles as well. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
3
USDCHF, Continuation Longs - FOMC AheadGood afternoon gents, With FOMC coming up at 7pm today BST, we can anticipate a huge injection of liquidity in the market place. At the end of the day, most news is just used as a facade to complete the market maker cycle, driving price to their next objectives. On days like this, the market looks relatively static without much movement taking place....but if you look closely at the details, you can see exactly how and where retailers are being trapped in their positions. Today is a hunting ground, and retailers are the sheeps we hunt. We have multiple positions working out nicely, working for FOMC catalyst to further drive price towards their TP. We already have an entry on USDCHF, this is merely a continuation trade to take it up to the final target....The Monthly Void. If you know, you know. If you don't, follow along on this fun adventure we'll embark on as USDCHF ends its Bearish Cycle and commences its Bullish Cycle for the year :) - AmplaFX
Long
by Jiraiya_eth
CADJPY, Short Opportunity 1:7 with opportunities to add on.Good morning ladies & gents, Great day to be engaging in CJ today. We have high impact CAD news @ 1:30pm and 11:30pm BST. This means what? It means that CAD will be an extremely volatile pair today and also the most highly manipulated one also. I'm interesting in taking this long, the first TP is where all retail sell's stop losses are placed. After breaking out of the channel & retesting it, they're all short from the retest with a stop above or at breakeven. This is a high volume area that makes an easy spot for TP IF CJ moves higher. 2nd TP is the High of the D1 Trading Range. Final TP is the Monthly Equal Highs, again - an area where a ton of retailers will have buy stops, so it makes it an easy place for me to get out of my buys @ the bottom as I've got retail orders to pair with at the top. Let's see how the day pans out. Trade small & always manage risk. I've got alternative scenarios that I know can play out if price breaks the H4 Lows & hits my stop loss. I'm prepared to switch my bias on CJ and look for shorts with predetermined objectives in mind. Hence, you should trade with respect to the markets & be flexible w/ your expectations. Good luck. - AmplaFX
Long
by Jiraiya_eth
EURNZD, Long Opportunity, RR 1:14Goood morning ladies and gents, EURNZD is poised to see higher prices today. It will rally up to the area marked as the final TP over the next week. Why? Simple. There was a consolidation (range) condition prior to a break to the top side. This induced retailers to look for longs, anyone who went long would have their maximum stop below the low of the range. Typical trading systems, lol. Price stop hunted to the other side of the range as expected, then cleared the EQ lows at the other side. This in turn, induced retail traders to look for shorts. However, we're currently in a Daily Bullish Institutional Orderflow with a clear objective to the topside. It's worth noting that although the daily structure is bullish, we're still in a weekly & monthly sell structure. Hence a TP at 1.68870 is advised as it's a potential point of reversal". Aligning seasonal tendencies with this technical perspective, it shows that EN tends to rally higher from the beginning of May until Mid May where a huge sell off begins, in line with our Weekly & Monthly sell structure bias. That's it for now. Take care.
Long
by Jiraiya_eth
CADCHF, Long, RR 1:5Good morning ladies and gents, Price has retraced back into a Daily Propulsion Block. On the H4 Chart, price has dropped back in an area we label "Source". As per our system at AmplaFX, the H1 and M15 rules are fulfilled so we have found a long position available at current market price. Looking to take it up to refill the H4 imbalance for an RR of 1:5. I anticipate price to trade through and beyond this level challenging old highs. However, a short term swing position is avaiilable here for a 1:5 RR based trade. Seasonal tedency indicates CAD strength and CHF weakness which adds further support to this trade idea. I wish you all good luck and good trading.
Long
by Jiraiya_eth
Seasonal Long from June rotation into August $DJI $DIAThe end of month rotation of June is upon us. On Friday June 26 we witnessed some very interesting rotations into small caps, cyclicals, and silver. If the virus news does not overwhelm the markets (big players control the news flow) then we have a good possibility of moving up toward the Independence Day holiday and beyond toward the next FOMC in July. The big push comes after that FOMC statement on average and we get a rally in bonds, stocks, gold and silver.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by mortdiggiddy
Seasonality Long from the June rotation into August $DJI $DIAThe end of month rotation of June is upon us. On Friday June 26 we witnessed some very interesting rotations into small caps, cyclicals, and silver. If the virus news does not overwhelm the markets (big players control the news flow) then we have a good possibility of moving up toward the Independence Day holiday and beyond toward the next FOMC in July. The big push comes after that FOMC statement on average and we get a rally in bonds, stocks, gold and silver.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by mortdiggiddy