Is it possible that the BTC be 9K again? Attention! Before start reading this article remember what is going to be read by you here, is totally against S2F model, which is a really an excellent and principled way to predict price, and suggest a dramatic drop in BTC price.
Also it relies on seasonal analytics, which are very accurate kind of analysis, but has not been sufficiently tested on bitcoin because BTC is almost a new trading instrument.
Another point of this analysis is to present relatively accurate times and prices in relatively distant times, which is completely contrary to the basic principles of technical analysis, as a result, I ask readers if the predicted scenario in this analysis occurred, try to analyze and predict prices and times in a shorter period of time according to their own trading strategy. As the author of this analysis, I believe that it is impossible to accurately predict the price over this time interval, so if the price go ahead with this scenario, I will take into account the price and time differences with this scenario in my trades.
Halving double the cost of BTC mining and anticipation of a relative decline in supply, will increase prices, so trough of price could be seen about 400 to 500 days before halving. Those times are best to buy.
Halving make a realizable seasonality for BTC price, as it could be seen in the chart, BTCUSD could be divided to ascending and descending periods which each last for around 111 weeks.
Halving happens during the ascending periods since price started its growth before halving,
In the first ascending period a gain of about 52500% accomplished which followed by a descending period resulted to a 86% drop and price started to grow about 78 bars before halving. A value loss of 66%, could be seen at end of 111 weeks of descending period comparing to ATH (all time high)
Again, the next ascending period which last 111 weekly bars ends to a gain, but a more gentle growth of about 12575%. The remarkable thing happen here. AGAIN, a max drop of around 83% which is so near to 86% and loss of around 66%, almost similar to the last descending period, happened after its last ascending period.
The number 111 seems to be sacred in our analysis and this week is the 111th week, potentially last week, of the recent uptrend period.
What will happen then?
A potential downtrend period may start. By a lookback to the past a loss of 80% to 86% is expectable. If history repeats itself BTC will reverse from somewhere between 13K and 9K between Sep of 2022 and Mar of 2023 and will reach to 24K at Dec of 2023.
If all that happen Sep of 2022, days when only crypto lovers remember the king BTC, is the best place for holders to begin adding more digital assets to their holdings.
The most important question! The first uptrend period ends to a max growth of around 52500% the next ends to an approximately 12575% growth, by occurrence of the scenario, the last growth would be just around 2121%!
What will be the next max growth?
By using the “number series” method to predict the next number it is calculated as 577.875% or around 575% which means a reversed BTC from 13K will reach to 87750 in around 220 Weeks (Jan of 2026)!!!
Regards, Ali
