Not time to test the bottom yet!Hi, all the TradingView readers. We suddenly decided to go out of the Telegram frames (having 30k subscribers on the channel and 20k bot users) and show up on the TradingView to send our ideas and messages more precisely.
Let’s examine the topic thoroughly. Currently, we see a slight correction started from 7120. Under the correction, the price has fallen slightly lower than expected. But we were able to catch the right time to average it out and now we are in the channel having profit.
For some reason, everybody’s claiming that the current correction is just the end of the story and we’re going to renew the bottom price and all the other weird and mostly factless thoughts. I mean, indeed, the correction is real cause’ the growth itself was quite noticeable. In the moment, we are monitoring Stoch RSI (our preferred indicator) which clearly shows (on 4H and 1H) that it's going to reverse. This kind of the significant indicator’s fallen usually notifies us of an upcoming collection and a potential indicator’s reverse motion.
In addition to Stoch RSI, we are quite interested in LONG&SHORT BItfinex and monitor it as well. It shows an exciting thing now. Short positions have been closed while falling, long positions have been opened in the same moment. Short and long positions crossing happened on the falling stage, not on the raising one. Which is quite strange to us. After all, the crowd of traders never act like this. People trade more in the direction of price, not vice versa. Cause’ it’s not a good time for this now. So you certainly can determine the “big player” moves, who’s trying to hold the long position.
It’s too early now for renewing or testing the price bottom as we're still not on the strong downward line, which holds out for six month already, constantly killing our hope for the bright Bitcoin future.
To push away the line we should reach it first. And we will definitely reach it with the price of $7400-7600 per coin. On this point we can finally start considering the strong short position and the bottom price testing.
Well, probably, it won’t ever happen. Cause’ if you attentively check the motion pattern of the chart, you’ll notice the very last raising hump is quite different from all the others. The new hump is based on the bigger values and it grows in a slower way while all the previous humps consist of the impulse candles. It can be considered not just a hump but a future flat causing an impulse. Under the possible ETF approval, we may finally get out of this triangle by the end of September and will “draw” something new and quite intriguing.
We’re certainly keeping in mind a situation of the stock going to the very bottom. But it’s highly unlikely as all the indicators suggest the opposite. However, it’s still a crypto, where everything is possible)
So we are still holding a long position.
Thank you for reading this! Welcome and Follow our daily analytics in Lemon Insiders telegram account to stay up to dated!
Sincerely, Lemon Insiders Team
SEC
Markets mature, Bitcoin resists against SECs recent rejectionIs the price of Bitcoin really rising and falling because of the SECs decision to reject several ETF proposals? Or were the markets following their own flow all along? We saw two rejection cycles in August, but the outcome for the price of Bitcoin was different in each case. I am more than happy about this, because there is only one outside pressure, which should be the only reason for having an impact on its price: new successful steps on its way to mass adoption. Everything else is simply dust.
Stellar Lumens price is compressing, lows and highs move closer Always an interesting development within a chart. To know something is going to happen soon is kinda exciting to follow. To me it feels like we'll have some outbreak soon. The markets seemed to be unimpressed towards the SECs recent denial of further ETF proposals. This only shows that markets are following their own rules and traders are building up some kind of immunity towards a certain kind of real world chatter. We are listening to the silent before the storm.
Bitcoin Today: SEC bamboozlingPrice
Though yesterday closed with a slight growth, the pattern stays as a lateral stagnation accompanied by a decrease in volumes. Recent comments from the SEC officials, that they will reconsider the disapproval orders for nine bitcoin ETFs issued on Wednesday, caused even more confusion on the markets, leaving the price in its comfortable boundaries 6250 – 6600. Wider technical view stays bearish and without a sufficient positive fundamental news the price will eventually lose grab on this levels and start to go lower to the 6000 support. From above we have 6600 resistance and the whole strong resistive zone up to 7000.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6000 – 6600 zone. Possible bearish rally.
Latest news
SEC intends to review the refusals
As was reported by CoinDesk, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced its intention to reconsider its previous decision to deny the launch of nine bitcoin-oriented ETFs.
In a letter to by SEC secretary Brent Fields addressed to the senior advisor of the NYSE Group, David De Gregorio, says:
"This letter is to notify you that, pursuant to Rule 43 I of the Commission's Rules of Practice, 17 CFR 20 I .43 1, the Commission will review the delegated action. In accordance with Rule 431 (e), the August 22 order is stayed until the Commission orders otherwise."
The time frame during which the Commission intends to take final decisions on the proposed ETF is not specified. A copy of the letter was also received by Cboe Global Markets.
The news of the SEC's intention to reconsider its decision was first reported by Commissioner Hester Pearce, who earlier criticized the refusal to launch the bitcoin-ETF of the Winklevoss brothers.
“In English: the Commission (Chairman and Commissioners) delegates some tasks to its staff. When the staff acts in such cases, it acts on behalf of the Commission. The Commission may review the staff's action, as will now happen here.”, @HesterPeirce.
9 ETF proposals are denied by the SEC, probably push BTC downAnother hit for several Bitcoin ETF proposals, which might push BTC below 6.000 today. But who cares? I think that the down pressure on BTC looses on strength and I see a trend reversal on the horizon. BTC price is bottoming out in an elongated belly shape, and from this point onwards, we shall see prices climbing upwards steadily, pushing towards more and more resistance levels. It might take some time but chances are looking good. I will feel further confirmed, if this latest news will not have the downside impact, many expect them to have. So lets have a close look at BTC prices over the next 24-48 hours.
Bitcoin Today: SEC answer until 23thPrice
The price continues to fluctuate inside the 6250 – 6600 channel, high selling volume at the end of the day brought BTCUSD to the 6250 level but quickly found a support and all selling volumes were closed near the 6250. Today we see a continuation of the lateral movement which gradually lowering bulls appetite for the current price levels and eventually could push the price lower, at least to 6000 support. Overall, the rule of thumb is simple – the longer we stay lateral – the more probable to go lower looking for buyers. Given that this week the market expects to hear the SEC response to the next ETF request (Thursday, August 23 - ProShares Bitcoin ETF), we will probably see a breakthrough out of this channel soon, the direction will depend from the SEC answer of course. Boundaries for today stays the same as yesterday: 6600 from above and 6250 from below.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6250 – 6600 zone.
Latest news
Next SEC decision until August 23
Less than a month after delaying a decision date on Cboe's VanEck/SolidX bitcoin ETF, the U.S. Securities, and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to approve or disapprove another pair of proposed ETFs.
Officials at the U.S. securities regulator are set to make a decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF and the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF by Thursday, August 23. Unlike Cboe's VanEck/SolidX bitcoin ETF request, this rule change proposal – filed by ProShares in conjunction with NYSE Arca – cannot be delayed any further.
The ProShares ETF proposals – initially submitted to the SEC last December – are underpinned by bitcoin futures contracts, rather than any physical holdings of bitcoin itself. In other words, the ETF's value will be determined by the bitcoin futures contracts trading on CME or the Cboe Futures Exchange, according to the original filing.
ProShares originally proposed the futures-based ETFs in September 2017 but noted at the time that the futures market was young and "there can be no assurance that an active trading market for bitcoin futures contracts will develop or be maintained," according to the filing.
To date, the regulator has only denied or delayed bitcoin ETF proposals, with the latest denial coming last month when it rejected a proposal filed by Gemini founders and long-time bitcoin investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.
The Winklevoss proposal had already been rejected in the spring of 2017, but the Bats BZX Exchange, which submitted the proposal, filed an appeal that was later heard by SEC commissioners.
Restarting BTC bull rally with (unlikely) Bitcoin ETF approval.In my previous idea (see below) I tried to build a potential scenario for the downside. Here I will TRY to create a scenario for how things could unfold in case of a bitcoin ETF approval. I was reading a Medium article that suggested that a possible scenario was that in case the ProShares ETF got approved the VanEck ETF might still get declined. The reason for this would be that the ProShares ETF trades futures where the VanEck ETF trades actual bitcoins (hence the larger amount of hype surrounding the VanEck ETF). Trading in actual bitcoins would make the SEC question custody which they might not be ready to approve.
This is a very hypothetical idea to help one prepare for an unlikely scenario. I have no idea how likely this scenario is however one reason I found this scenario interesting was that this sequence of events could possibly bring us back to a recovery similar to after the Dotcom bubble. I have previously created an idea (see below) on the similarities between NASDAQ Dotcom bubble and bitcoins last bull rally. In my mind I still find this kind of recovery reasonable as cryptocurrencies was (obviously) over hyped in the last rally as was Internet stocks in the Dotcom bubble. However Internet technology did have its merits (obviously) and the market recovered. Blockchain technology (obviously) also has its merits so in my mind a similar recovery would be reasonable to suggest. The market however can disagree (obviously). Getting back above the long term support line (green trend line) would be very positive in my mind. Also the breakouts and retracements/back tests could potentially align well with this long term trend line and previous tops.
Even though I find the above idea interesting I believe more downside is more likely before the next rally. However I will keep this idea in mind to be prepared in case of a unlikely ETF approval.
If you liked my idea please follow me to help me justify publishing more ideas here on TV. As always please feel free to criticize and give feedback as this is the primary reason that I currently publish ideas on TV.
Good luck everybody
Bitcoin Today: correction to bearish trend?Price
Yesterday went in an expected manner, fluctuating between 6250 and 6600. For now, BTCUSD is holding above 6250 which is important for an upward overview. Nonetheless, until the price reaches 7000 – 8000 zone this upward movements could be considered as a correction of the bearish trend. As the negative news background, has changed to neutral we expect a continuation of lateral movement for today, maybe with testing of 6600 during the US trading session. Boundaries: 6000 – 6250 zone as a support and 6600 – 6800 as a resistance.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6000 – 6800 zone.
Latest news
Chris Concannon, CBOE president and CEO optimistic about ETF approval
The moment when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will improve their attitude regarding bitcoin-ETF is not far off. This view was expressed by the president of the Chicago Option Exchange (CBOE), Chris Concannon.
CBOE president also said that the launch of bitcoin futures, which took place at the CBOE in December, indicates the maturity of cryptomarkets. Concerning ETF on the basis of futures, Concannon noted that since no one has yet tested this product, one important task is to determine the correct level of liquidity.
SEC also concerned about volume issue. The trading volume of bitcoin futures is relatively low in comparison with contracts for such commodities as oil or gold. ETF is designed to solve this problem. However, the SEC is unlikely to approve crypto-currency ETF-products without sufficient liquidity of bitcoin futures themselves.
As Concannon noted, in the crypto industry, ETF can offer huge dividends to pioneers.
Recall, on August 7, the SEC extended the term of consideration of the joint application for the creation of bitcoin-ETF from the companies VanEck and SolidX. Nevertheless, representatives of CBOE and the above-mentioned firms are still convinced of the positive outcome of the case.
Bitcoin Today: Bearish, no hints on reversal yetPrice
BTCUSD has been showing growth yesterday but did not leave the 6000 - 6600 correctional zone thus did not violate the August bearish tendency. For nearest days we have a 6600 resistance and Bearish Trend Line from above and 6250 – 6000 supportive zone from below, the price will react on these levels. Break above 6600 will only send the price to the next resistive zone 6600 – 6800, which have to be crossed as well to show any hints for a turnaround. Fall below 6000 will open the 2018 low at 5750. Such closeness to the 2018 lows already adds to the bearish scenario, to turn the overview into the more positive side - we need to see a fast rebound from lows and come back above 6800 or even 7000. The longer the price will stay near the lows – the more chances to make new lows.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6000 – 6600 zone.
Latest news
Comments on ETF situation from market insiders
Internet news portal The Ico Journal published comments on ETF situations "from their insider sources". Source in the Van Eck, a former employee from SEC and someone from CBOE, all seem to have positive expectations regarding approvals of ETFs in future. The main idea is that SEC will approve ETF, they just trying to show a responsible approach and make everything as much safe as possible. Although there is no guarantee of reliability of the source, the article reflects the positive vision, which should be taken into account. Article from The Ico Journal (by Rogue Trader) with the direct speech from sources lower:
After yesterday’s panic reaction to the CBOE, Van Eck SolidX Bitcoin ETF procedural delay we thought it important to reach out to our CBOE contacts, Van Eck back channels, and industry vets to get their reactions. They didn’t disappoint – and you will pick up a theme very quickly in the commentary from three separate and institutionally different sources regarding the topic.
All gave nearly unanimous opinions about two issues of crypto interest; the expected delay and continued high expectations connected to eventual approval.
Our most consistent CBOE source responded via text this way (unedited): “Expected and the markets are acting irrationally to the announcement. Every single submission like this has gotten a delay. Again, expected. Still expect approval. 99% expectation. Print it, but as always, don’t use my name. :)”
A source we were passed at Van Eck responded via email with this: “Our team expected this delay, almost to the hour, and has been an expectation in our planning process. We won’t say when we expect an approval, but there has been specific speculation that we actually agree with and have incorporated into our timeline. We are in no way surprised by this. Most importantly, we believe our submission is the strongest yet to be put in front of US regulators, and believe that strength will be rewarded.”
We shared the above feedback from a source in our network who happens to be a former SEC employee now in the private sector (within the last three months): “The four people I still talk to on the daily at the SEC are basically telling me this ‘it is going to get approved but we are going to make the markets understand that we dug really, really deep i.e. investor protection/transparency’. And that makes sense. The vast majority of the public still has no idea what ‘digital assets’ are or what it means. So when you do an approval like this, and the successive approvals that will follow in this asset class – think of the 3-5 year return number that will be associated with this market? And maybe that is the key to the Van Eck SolidX approval? It is set up as an accredited investor vehicle. That singular element is probably what gives so many of us a firm belief in its approval. And it is a stroke of genius by the Van Eck SolidX group.”
That is where we believe the strength of this approval really lies. The $200,000 price tag effectively puts a floor on the type of investors who can realistically purchase shares. The product instantly becomes the property of accredited investors and institutional organizations.
Bitcoin Today: To be or not to be for ETF, that is the questionPrice
Spending most of the day on the 6500 level Bitcoin eventually managed to buy-out all bullish volumes and went downwards, heading to the 6000 support. A pause on the 6250 level confirms the importance of the 6000 – 6600 zone but doesn't break downward tendency yet. The market has already shown its reaction on the latest SEC statement (to extend the decision period on VanEck until September 30), which once more confirms that now Bitcoin is highly driven by the ETF question. So, for now, we expect to see a lateral movement in the 6000 – 6600 zone until the next SEC statement which probably will be released till August 23 as it is the deadline for ProShares application answer. To consider any bullish developments we will need to see the price going above the 6600 level until then outlook stays strictly bearish.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6000 – 6800 zone.
Latest news
SEC deadlines for the next two months
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to make final decisions on nine proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the next two months.
ON Tuesday SEC stated about delaying a decision on a proposed rule change from the Cboe BZX Exchange that, if approved, would allow for the listing of an ETF backed by blockchain startup SolidX and investment firm VanEck.
Yet the SolidX-VanEck proposal – first put forward in June – is just one of four filings in waiting.
Combined with past submissions from firms ProShares, Direxion and GraniteShares, a total of 10 bitcoin-related funds are being weighed by SEC officials, according to public records, although the VanEck/SolidX bitcoin ETF is the only "physical" ETF among all the proposals.
Those deadlines are set by the time at which the proposals are published in the U.S. Federal Register, with an initial decision due 45 days after that time. Still, the agency can postpone this timelines to as many as 240 days following publication in the Register.
The deadline for a decision on two funds from ProShares is August 23, is just over two weeks away. The rule change paving the way for those products was submitted by NYSE Arca on December 4, 2017.
September will see a series of deadlines for bitcoin ETFs, starting on September 15, the date by which two funds by GraniteShares will receive a thumbs-up or thumbs-down. The funds were initially proposed on January 5.
The deadline for Direxion's four funds is September 21, as indicated by public records, after being first submitted on January 4.
SEC punted its decision on the SolidX-VanEck proposal to September 30. However, given the way in which the agency considers such proposals, additional time may be carved out, pushing a final decision deadline to as far as late February of next year.
To be sure, the agency could release its decisions ahead of its prescribed deadline (as the SEC did this week).
SEC Postpones Bitcoin ETF decision - Is Crypto Markets Over SoldThe prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum and all other major cryptocurrencies are sharply down Wendesday following an announcement by the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) that they will delay the decision on approving the expected first-ever Bitcoin ETF.
BTC/USD continuously following its' bearish trend, according to Bollinger Bands (BB), as long as the prices remain between the 20 days moving average (MA) the lower band.
Bitcoin tries reaching close to its support at $6383 but bounce back as buyers interrupt.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on 30, offering “over sold” market signal, we are currently still waiting for another signal from MACD of crossing the Signal one line. Once signal received, we might see Bitcoin prices going back towards $6718 (Resistance 1).
The launch of a Bitcoin ETF would likely be a big boost for Bitcoin and other coins, as it would open the doors to institutional investors to invest in the crypto market.
Bitcoin Today: No ETF decision on August 10 Price
Yesterday BTCUSD fell sharply, breaking the 6800 support on the way, after SEC statement on the prolongation of decision period for ETF applications. The price did stumble on 6600 support for a short time, but after a while broke below and now trading around the 6500 level. 6000 is a near-term target, by reaching it Bitcoin will erase all gains and positiveness from the July growth, which was provoked mostly by the speculations about ETF applications. For now, overall price pattern is bearish with a target on 6000. A breakthrough below 6000 will send the price to 2018 minimum at 5750. Nonetheless, 6000 level should have strong supportive value, as it is close to the 2018 min, so a bounce-off from this level is probable. To gain any positiveness we need to see the price moving above the 7000 level in nearest term.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6000 – 6800 zone.
Latest news
The SEC has extended the decision-making period for VanEck SolidX Bitcoin-ETF until September 30
SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) has extended the decision-making period for the application to List and Trade Shares of SolidX
Bitcoin Shares Issued by the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust. This is stated in a document published on Tuesday, August 7, on the Commission's website.
Initially, it was assumed that the meeting of the Commission, at which officials will decide on changes in the rules of trade at the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOE), where the fund should be traded, will be held on August 10. However, this date has now been postponed to September 30.
The application of VanEck and SolidX was filed on June 6. If the application approved VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust will be immune from theft and loss of funds. It will also be tied to a new index from Van Eck, which instead of exchanges will collect the price of bitcoin from US-based over-the-counter (OTC) platforms.
The price of VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust shares was set at $ 200,000, which means that the new ETF will be primarily targeted at institutional investors.
Earlier, a source in the SEC, who wished to remain anonymous, made it clear that the agency was interested in approving this application.
News almost immediately affected the course of bitcoin, which, having risen during the day's session above 7100, went down sharply, dropping below 6600 as on 8 August 8:30 UTC.
30K, 50K & 70K PREDICTIONS FROM THE HEDGE FUND MANAGERS...Haven't you heard it? 'Certainly this year, q2.. q3 , before the year end, no doubt, etc...' We all wish for it, and it is possible, we know...
But how does that look in reality... well... we gotta roll up those sleeves... and break some walls actually, or .. will Wallstreet do it for us?
They will ! Question is... when ? And will they short first, still hidden between the retailers?
Well, here's our deadline... great things to happen before old years eve then...
August 16, ETF's decision of the SEC for a basket of coins listing or not, last chance to add some power in the game, after the 2 rejected proposals of the Winklevoss twins, as we made it already to 8.4K.. but don't we need a little bit more?
BNB good hedge while BTC and other Alts dump? Upon news of the BTC rejection of an ETF, BTC and other alts have plunged while BNB has been making higher lows/highs. The trend is still valid if BNB can stay above the yellow dotted line. Resistances can be seen around the two green lines up above. If BNB can stay above the yellow dotted line and grind higher, we can possibly see BNB break from BTC and move in the opposite direction as people find a better hedge against BTC whether that be BNB or Tether - this has held true in the past. If we definitively break the yellow dotted line, this C&H might then be invalid and it is time to re evaluate the position and take profit/losses. I will keep you updated as this plays out :D
BTC thoughts 15-06-18Retest at 6800, possible drop after as market still seems to be bearish. Potential failed sell off to 6200-5900 before bounce.
Hopefully we have found, or are very close to finding, the bottom here and will have a bounce soon. Otherwise I feel we could be in for a bear market until September time, 2014 fractals hopefully playing out much faster. Once we see more USD, fiat pairings etc we could be in for a nice run.
I would say now is a nice time to buy some Alts,but only those with strong fundamentals. I believe tokenized Securities are going to be big in the not so distant future so I would strongly recommend looking into these. If i was an accredited investor I would be investing into tZERO.
I'm long term bullish on BTC and crypto in general.
Were going to be fine - Short-term Bitcoin UpdateRelax and take a deep breath. Volume is dropping on the decline and a very clear bullish divergence has formed. Were at support and acting solidly. SEC and CFTC meeting is closed-door and a report from it will not be public for several weeks, so take a deep breath, read the chart and relax.
Forgot about $ETC? Get ready for moon.I have a mid term target for $ETC @ 340k sat. Roughly 50% upside from here within the week.
My message to my signals channel:
TL;DR. I am holding $ETH in anticipation of the SEC meeting. Also holding an even amount of $ETC in satoshi value as a hedge.
A number of #TeamNeverWorkAgain members have reached out to me about what to do with their spare $BTC. The other day we made a call stating we were moving roughly half of our portfolios to $BTC and it played out quite nicely. Yes, alts are red, and they look like attractive buys, but we don’t feel this is the bottom yet. Protecting your satoshis in $BTC is a great move as $BTC has been charging up with no indicators saying that it will stop. Feeling like you need to be in all alt coins is FOMO. We are just beginning alt season in my opinion and this is a healthy pullback. In this market, the impatient give their money to the patient. I’m holding off on almost all alt purchased until they look fully bottomed.
That being said: I am holding a fair amount of $ETH. This is in anticipation of the SEC conference on Monday discussing whether or not $ETH will be deemed a security. Many of us have learned time and time again that putting all your eggs in one basket never ends well. It causes emotional thinking and often drives to panic selling. As a hedge to my bet on $ETH, I will be holding an even amount of satoshi value worth of $ETC.
Why? One of the major factor in determining whether or not $ETH will be deemed a security is that $ETH raising capital from a public sale is one characteristic of a security. $ETC however did not raise funds through public sale. In my opinion, $ETH will fall in the short term if it is deemed a security, but will have an inverse reaction and appreciate in value from a fundamental standpoint that it is not a security and consequently will be more difficult to regulate than $ETH.
Please do not be concerned though about $ETH in the long run. I believe both outcomes, $ETH being deemed a security or not, are bullish for crypto overall. If $ETH is classified as a security, institutions that have been on the sidelines will take this movement way more seriously and likely start to join us. If $ETH is not deemed a security, we will be closer to being officially considered an entirely new asset class which in my opinion will have the space going crazy!
On top of all this, $ETC’s weekly chart looks so good that I am going to hold it for a few weeks time. Just look at that bowl baby!
Please remember, you know what’s best to do with your own wealth. This is our opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
Yours truly,
J
SHORT Ethereum rising wedge 4:1 RR short setupSEC news incoming
Stoch RSI bearish crossovers in 4h and 12h TF's
Bearish divergences in RSI in multiple TF's forming.
Broken rising wedge at the end of an uptrend with descending volume .
4:1 risk reward ratio.
Position sizing: 2% of trading portfolio
Leverage: x5
When the SEC looks at you funny..think LFINAt least this is volatile like cryptos, should you be on the right side of the 'hill'