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Secretguy

US Treasure Bonds Yields - Long TermAlright so I've come up with a formula between different US Bond Yields resulting in an oscillator indicator - which successfully signals tops on the stock markets and the bear market after. Based on the area where that oscillator crosses the 0 value (down), we start topping until it comes back up. This period last in average around 1 year and is aligningt +/- with the actual top of SPX. This is a period in which stocks may consolidate or still go up - overall an area of indecission, ending bullish power etc. The actual drop always comes after that period and last up to 800 days- depending on the strength of the previous bull trend - The longer and stronger, the bigger the fall. All such corrections were hitting lower than 0.618 fib level - meaning we will hit 2200 or even 1600 (SPX). Key takeaways: - We're not in an actual Bear Market yet. - We are in consolidation meaning a pump for ath retests is possible until March 2023 +/- - After March 2023 we should start real falls until around March 2025 - SPX Bear Market Target 1600-2200 Sorry and you're welcome!
TVC:US30Y
by TheSecretsOfTrading
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ? When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative. In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels? At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds. Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder). If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels. Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP. Cheers! PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern. All is in FED's hands now.
TVC:US10YShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
ALTPERP what would you say, huh?Last several months were brutal already, making us a bit sceptic about further lows as how long can this go ?! But also a big chunk of the market is really focused on catching really low prices, accepting the way we are going. That would be too easy. Here we landed on great support and we are close to the top of the descending channel. It looks like a breakout to the upside could be possible, having in mind RSI got totally oversold - and we could have a small run up to retest a strong resistance, before retesting the bottom of the bear market. Stay safe.
FTX:ALTPERPLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
USDT is whisperingThe result is pretty similar to DXY, but the way the story is told is different. Here we can see a top being retested a few times, forming a potential Head and Shoulders. If the price fills the pattern - it will need to confirm it at the 0.618 fib level, which is one of the most common correction levels and it sits at strong support. It is then when we need to monitor on what it will do - if the HS gets confirmed - we happy until the bottom of the growing channel. If we fail - we will see that brutal side of the bear market on stocks and crypto. Good luck and stay safe!
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
ETHUSD You will unfollow me after thisWell... I don't make the rules. Hate the game, not the gamer. Having that said - curvy channels are more than powerful and are yet to be "traditionalized" in this game. Until they are a common thing, they will show great reversal points - and on the weekly chart here - we can see the price has been obeying the top curvy channel and hasn't touched the bottom for a very long time. Not saying we're going there in 1 blow - but that's the bottom of the bear market to me. Imagine the depression that leads to that.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
4
SPX trying to go down, but...SPX has been fulfilling the pattern it has created with last falls - and tried to reach the fib level once more - We need more fundamental context on where its headed. I will post an updated on that after Fed's meeting, but so far it looks like weekly 200 ema shows great attraction to the price - this will either form a double bottom .... or a cross - which would lead VIX to spike up and make us witnesses of a great fall. Stick around for the updated.
SP:SPXShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
VIX whats next?Vix did what we expected - it bounced up respecting the curvy channel and is now dancing at the top. CPI came out a bit better, but that is no relief in thinking the bear market is gone. We didn't even hit the expected progress in this subject, therefore I remain bearish long term. I expect VIX to respect the curve here and try and retest lows (red line more likely), but if we cross the channel - we will go as the green line shows - meaning brutal bear market reality. Keep safe either way, cause all ways lead in 1 direction at the end.
TVC:VIXShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
SOL Huge Weekly H&SWell, this isn't what we want to see. Sol has tried to break the curvy channel, which would gain volatility and push the price most likely up. But fundamentals aren't favorable for the markets and price is still within that range - if it doesn't breakout soon, It risks breaking out to the downside, fulfilling the Head and Shoulders pattern with an extremely low target. Have in mind it can still fakeout to the downside - the HS needs a succsessful retest before proceeding further. Watch this area! Good luck!
by TheSecretsOfTrading