Bitcoin will go to $396k this year if we're lucky, $788k maxI've been calling $396k since 23 May 2018 in my Telegram group and to friends and family.
Here is my channel that I've drawn, extending from the previous ATHs and previous relative lows, taking into account 2013 forward, more or less.
This also roughly follows Stock-to-Flow and supply side market conditions which I believe programmatically and predictably correlate to a quadriennal cycle in Bitcoin. Other "cryptos" tend to follow Bitcoin since Bitcoin is the standard for changing money between asset classes and between exchanges, which leads to its relatively smooth curve over time. For comparison, see ETH, LTC, DGB, or other small cap coins which are more "spike" and less "peak and valley."
I haven't changed these channel lines since 2018. They have been respected extraordinarily well.
This is my first post, and I'm not sure if my RSI parameters will post. RSI is a good indicator for entry and exit. I tend to set up the high horizontal line at 75-80 and the low at 25-30. I set these lines in 2018 or 2019 and have never changed. Buy below 30, sell above 75. Every single breach must be met by its opposite, without fail, except across longer time frames. You may use this for swing trading at 1x, if you choose, and your win rate will be around the 60% range. If you wait for the buy and sell signals, sometimes you'll miss the opportunity to sell before price falls further and vice versa.
MACD is a good general trend indicator, but it's a liar. Sometimes you'll see a light green or light red printed (if you use my color set up) and it'll turn back to green or red afterward. It's better across longer time frames.
I'm currently experimenting with adjusting an algorithm on a new trading method which seems incredibly promising. Once I get more familiarity with posting on Trading View and understand the indicator, I will post more. At this time, I think I can have >80% wins, which is good.
If you are going to trade, never trade more than $150k at a time (with leverage). If you are day trading, it is too difficult to market sell any more than this. It is better to stay under $75k, and with current volatility, you should be able to earn decent money if you trade smaller amounts responsibly. The biggest mistake I see is people believe that if they can win a few trades, they can make bigger trades and win more--I have made this mistake. You will win until you don't. Eventually, you will lose or get liquidated.
Stick to a thesis and trade until it's invalidated. This means you make 5-10 bad trades in a row. You should "paper trade" or trade in a spreadsheet for at least 2-3 days before executing a new thesis. My current trading thesis has taken me almost 3 years and tens of thousands of trades to win. I have lost several Bitcoin in trading, when prices were low. I have, more recently, done better. I will soon begin to trade again, and hope that I am successful.
