Target hit. Rectangle continuation on 1D. Short.TP = 12.792 hit as SEKJPY continues the very controlled sideways trade on the 1D Rectangle (RSI = 52.414, STOCH = 49.962, CCI = 9.9279, Highs/Lows = 0). We continue to trade within its ~ 12.100 - 12.850 range, opening a short now, TP = 12.283. Even 1W is neutral on RSI, Highs/Lows, Ultimate Oscillator.
SEK
meanwhile in the forgotten land of scandinavian forex ....while people are stuck and excited on the big pairs .... and losing a lot of money, the best pairs are the forgotten ones. noksek is closely monitored by the swedish and norwegian central banks, so that there is no big deviation so no big losses on your account, and the moves are repetitive like a parrot. we have reached again a situation with a parallel UBB, MM and LBB, nothing more perfect than that for a calm and without risk move on noksek. it will decrease steadily with a first corrective bounce at 1.04 (because of the first geometric blockade on a weekly zoom). just short noksek, and wait .... if the monthly candle creates an opening upward of the slope of the UBB, it will completely invalidate the move, noksek will be able to drift upward again, but you will see it coming as noksek evolves smoothly and slowly, so you will have the time to see and react before accumulating big latent losses.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Upper range line reachedThe US Dollar has been stranded in the 8.5675/8.9835 range since late April. Its southern boundary and the senior channel were tested mid-June. This move was followed by the Greenback initiating a new up-wave and reaching the 161.80% Fibonacci expansion line at 8.95 yesterday.
Given that the pair has reached the upper range boundary, it is likely that bears start to pressure the rate and thus push it lower. This assumption is likewise strengthened by the fact that the rate has breached the dashed short-term trend-line.
The base scenario favours the weakening of the strong upside momentum and a soon decline down to the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs or the other range line at 8.75 and 8.5675, respectively.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Bullish in short termUSD/SEK has been guided by two opposing channels. The most senior pattern was formed in December 2016, while the junior one has bounded the rate within the bounds of this aforementioned senior channel. The most recent up-wave started late in January when the Greenback reversed from the 7.80 mark.
The pair tested the upper boundary of the senior channel near 8.9025 during the first week of May. It has since edged lower but nevertheless remained near this long-term pattern.
Technical indicators flash bullish signals in the short term. It means that the rate is likely to re-test the senior channel at 8.9025 this week. This level is likewise strengthened by the weekly R2 and the monthly R1. The outlook in the medium term, however, remains bearish, showing that the senior channel is likely to be respected.
EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Euro breaches four-month channelEUR/SEK was trading in a four-month ascending channel prior to breaching this pattern to the downside on Wednesday. This movement shows that the Euro is ready to continue trading lower in line with the senior channel. The upper boundary of this long-term channel was tested on March 3 when the rate reversed from its eight-year high of 10.68.
As it was stated, the pair’s movement is expected to be southwards during the following weeks, while the a shorter-term forecast favours a bullish correction, as the considerable 1.45% fall yesterday sent technical indicators in the oversold territory.
The nearest resistance is set by the 55-hour SMA at 10.47. A breakout of this level should result in a test of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, the 100-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 10.50 or even further up to the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 10.55.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Pair tests mid-2017 highStrong upside potential has been guiding USD/SEK since mid-April. The pair had breached a long-term channel down earlier in the month prior to gaining the necessary momentum to reach the 8.87 mark—the rate’s highest position since July, 2017. Along the way, the pair breached a three-month ascending channel near 8.75 that should point to further appreciation.
However, it is expected that bulls soon exhaust their upward momentum and allow bears to form a correction south. The prevailing channel suggest that the US Dollar could still edge slightly higher in this session towards the 8.90/95 area.
Subsequently, the pair should aim for the lower boundary of this pattern circa 8.75 in the short term and further down to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 8.62 within the following two weeks.
USD/SEK: trading short-entryGrowing divergence after hitting the weekly barrier at 8.5290 suggests sellers are returning again. Expect a breach of the trend line and a correction back to 8.3000, 8.1570 and roughly 8-even over the next days and weeks.
Although the longer term is more or less neutral, broader USD weakness does support an aggressive short-entry strategy.
Near term trend: neutral
Long term trend: neutral/slightly negative
Outlook: correction, moderately negative
Strategy: avoid or aggressive short-entry
Support: 8.3000 / 8.1570 / 8.0050 / 7.8600-
Resistance: 8.4775 / 8.5290 / 8.66+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 8.4775
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Pair diminishes trading rangeThe US Dollar has been trading in an ascending channel against the Swedish Krona since the beginning of 2018. The pair has appreciated 7.44% since its 2018 low of 7.8233, thus breaching the senior channel on March 28.
The Greenback continues to diminish its trading range and move in line with the wedge. The most recent test of its upper boundary occurred late on Friday when the rate reversed from the 8.48 mark.
It is likely that the given pattern is respected during the following trading days, thus setting the bottom wedge line circa 8.36 as a near-term target. A breakout to the downside might occur at this level. Nevertheless, this decline below 8.39 could be briefly hindered by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs.
EUR/SEK 4H Chart: Bullish momentum allaysEUR/SEK has been driven by upside momentum, as it has surged 6.41% since early February. This movement has been bounded in an ascending channel during this time.
The Euro was lingering slightly above the senior channel for two weeks prior to appreciating substantially early on Thursday. This movement has pushed the rate closer to the upper line of the junior channel located near the 10.50 mark.
Technical indicators suggest that some upward movement could occur today and early on Monday. However, the pair still has to overcome a resistance cluster set by the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 at 10.38. A medium-term trend-line is likewise located in this area.
In general, the base scenario favours the prevalence of bears as early as next week, as the pair should make a correction south after such a massive surge. The nearest support is set by the 55-hour SMA at 10.30.
Eur Sek ShlongAs you can see we had some nice action here with this SHS formation right at a rising trendline + a new formed s/r zone which pushed price to a new high here .
Now Price is running into another s/r zone which is not confirmed yet but i will look for a confirmed touch before taking a long .
On the other hand a break could lead to short in direction of the confirmed s/r zone below or maybe even to the trendline showing us another test
EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Approaches strong resistanceThe common European currency is trading in three channels simultaneously against the Swedish Krona. The dominant pattern which has guided the pair during the previous three weeks is a medium-term channel. Its lower boundary was tested on March 20 when the Euro reversed from the 10.05 level.
The rate has since edged higher towards the monthly and weekly R1s at 10.25. Technical indicators demonstrate that the pair might still appreciate during the following session. Gains in this case could be capped near the senior channel at 10.27.
However, the lost bullish momentum during the previous three sessions might mark the beginning of a new wave down. This scenario should be confirmed by a breakout of the 55-hour SMA near 10.19. A possible downside target within the following two weeks is the 10.10 area where the 200-hour SMA, the weekly S1 and the junior channel are located.