ridethepig | SEK Long-Term Macro Map📍 USDSEK Long Term Macro Map
After the " Moment of Truth for SEK " flow, which was so difficult with its own inherent positional issues, the next update here should appear all too straightforward again. Of course a well planned macro flow does not have to last forever; a dollar devaluation swing which only crops up occasionally, in fact can even threaten the 6.80x support.
Some 8 candles later, the flows are following the widely mapped positional forecast. This swing has the clear fundamental advantage from the soft inherent picture in Sweden. Things have not settled down on the virus front which has become quite forgotten by many. Then of course when a second wave occurs in the Northern Hemisphere during the Winter months, the almost forgotten complacency will return, bringing a zig-zag into the initial forecast into the initial 8.20x target.
Dollar seller's last move sees the impulsive swing being instated, for the threat is now the clear advance onto the main targets. It is therefore logically and casually relevant to all G10 crosses to include the DXY maps:
At the point when this was made, Fed was seen as a deer in the headlights via Covid capitulation / flip flop and, with what immense trouble they will have now in achieving credibility after funding the Whitehouse policies in broad daylight!! Watch for the lows next week, its not quite so easy for buyers to dispose of the momentum here: if this happens we may enter into waterfall mode.
SEKNOK
SEKNOK: Massive carry, and potential long term top in this pair,SEKNOK is offering an interesting setup in the weekly chart.
I'm short, looking to benefit from the positive carry of this pair, and also the topping pattern on chart.
I'd reccomend adding to it once we're 1 atr in the money after entry. Currently, we have a valid time at mode sell signal on chart, where the mode nicely matches the previous sharp rally's top. Bearish momentum is evident and we can expect more commitment to come into this pair as time goes by.
Holding shorts in this pair, yields a nice carry because of the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krona's interest rate differential, so I'm sure many will be looking to benefit from it, either trading forward swaps, or by trading currency. (the former seemingly posessing lower risk, but not so easily accesible to most traders unlike the FX cross).
Good luck if taking this trade, remember to keep risk below 1%, and stops above the red line on chart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.