ridethepig | SEK Long-Term Macro Map📍 USDSEK Long Term Macro Map
After the " Moment of Truth for SEK " flow, which was so difficult with its own inherent positional issues, the next update here should appear all too straightforward again. Of course a well planned macro flow does not have to last forever; a dollar devaluation swing which only crops up occasionally, in fact can even threaten the 6.80x support.
Some 8 candles later, the flows are following the widely mapped positional forecast. This swing has the clear fundamental advantage from the soft inherent picture in Sweden. Things have not settled down on the virus front which has become quite forgotten by many. Then of course when a second wave occurs in the Northern Hemisphere during the Winter months, the almost forgotten complacency will return, bringing a zig-zag into the initial forecast into the initial 8.20x target.
Dollar seller's last move sees the impulsive swing being instated, for the threat is now the clear advance onto the main targets. It is therefore logically and casually relevant to all G10 crosses to include the DXY maps:
At the point when this was made, Fed was seen as a deer in the headlights via Covid capitulation / flip flop and, with what immense trouble they will have now in achieving credibility after funding the Whitehouse policies in broad daylight!! Watch for the lows next week, its not quite so easy for buyers to dispose of the momentum here: if this happens we may enter into waterfall mode.
SEKUSD
USD/SEK 4H Chart: Channel DownUSD/SEK 4H Chart: Channel Down
The American Dollar is gradually loosing value against the Swedish Krone in a three week long narrow descending channel.
The pattern represents a continuation of the general downtrend that has started in beginning of the year.
During the last two weeks the currency rate has been moving along the 20- and 55-period SMAs, which blocked any attempts to break to the top.
As a result, the pair has successfully slipped through the monthly S1 at 8.3063 and S2 at 8.1729.
However, both times the drop was attributed to announcement of the ECB’s and Fed’s interest rates.
Hence, when technical indicators will be updated, there is a high chance that one of them or combination of them will force the pair to make a rebound.
But for the rest of the week is expected to continue to move downwards.
SELL USDCADUSOIL is at a major trendline from a year ago and the .618 fib level of the last major leg. Also, two pin bars have formed around this area. Also, the USDOLLAR is weak across the board after the rate hike. Technically, we have a MACD crossover, a cypher pattern on the daily chart, and then a rejection of the 8/21 with a bearish pin bar. Finally, USDSEK, which is correlated with USDCAD has broken a huge trendline suggesting further momentum. I am targeting 1.32 then 1.30. I have a stop loss above 1.341 and opened short at 1.337.