Last night I posited 3 theories:
1) We are still in Intermediate wave A up
2) Intermediate wave C (and Primary wave 2 up) will end this week
3) The market topped last Friday at the close
I went into theories 2 and 3 last night but wanted to dedicate more time to theory 1 which will occur here. I first placed the Minor waves (yellow) where they likely ended. I...
The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis.
The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave...
The Minor wave 4 end point will determine if Minor wave 5 (and Intermediate wave A) ends this week. This corrective wave has been tremendous, but possibly too fast. Minor wave 3 thus far has already broken above the preliminary estimates for the end of Intermediate wave A. The initial Intermediate wave A locations were based on the idea Primary wave 2 would last...
Target boxes are based on derivative analysis of historical waves performance. This will be the first use and test of the new analytical toolset. According to the tool, Intermediate wave 4 does not have much room for the top, looks like ceiling is 4402, which is less than originally expected. Next reversal point will be a low around 4180 which is much higher than...
Right now, Intermediate 2 and therefore the Minor wave C track seem plausible. This is what tomorrow and possibly Wednesday could look like. Intermediate wave 2 was initially projected by secondary models to come in at 32 hours which is half the length of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave C is projected to last between 16-24 hours which is the size of the green box,...
Here is a recalculated path to possible market bottom IF the current market top is in.
Key Takeaways: Not as shallow or long as initial projections
For now the bottom could be around August-September 2024 and no longer at the end of 2024 or first quarter of 2025 as initially projected. The maximum bottom based on historical data is 2850 and not likely. At best...
Minor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore...
