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Sellaussie

AUDCAD ANALYST: AMUN SULED ➖ COMPANY: OCSI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ➖ IMPORTANT INFORMATION:📌 - ORDER FLOW : BEARISH * LSB: breaker retest * PROJECTED TP : * PROJECTED SL: Hi master traders! welcome to another trade idea with Genius Chart. If you like what you see and it helps you ,please support our work by writing a comment and SMASHING that like button! 👍🏾 its us against the markets❗️ Our mission is to provide the tools and knowledge to people across the world and help them tap into uncharted potentials and obtain unimaginable financial freedom. if you hang around this profile long enough you will start to visually learn valuable lessons that will help you put your puzzle together as we are all on our own journey. Why should you follow our profile on Trading View❓ ➖you will get ➖ 🥇Clean charts 🥈Consistent chart updates with our highest probability set ups 🥉 Analysis on a wide range of major markets ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ♟Legal Risk Disclosure Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Short
by genius-chart
EURAUD Surge on the way !!the exotic pair traded in a side ways ranging market for a long period of time, last week we witnessed a breakout to the upside in which a bullish momentum is gained. a retest was made by the pair during the Asian session today!! and the critical level acted as a great support. a potential bounce can be seen from the current levels or from 1.6505 level. the stop loss to this trade is a 4 hours candle closing below 1.6400 level with a great risk to reward ratio, since we are waiting this pair to target 1.7000 as a first target
Long
by josephdahrieh
SHORT AUDUSD: EYEING CPI PRINT - SELL 1.0%YOY, 0.3%Q; RBA EASINGAM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision 1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow pace. 2. RBA Minutes that support this view of low CPI leading to a cut from July said - - On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong AUD which in turn supports RBA doves out there as a cut is the remedy to stop a deflationairy currency in its tracks. Further, RBA notably were under no illusions regarding their inflation situation stating " inflation set to stay low for some time" - another encouraging stimulus for doves given inflation's important position/ weight for setting future policy. - As per the attached post, i remain dovish/ bearsh on aussie$, and i continue to expect a cut to 1.50% (25bps) this year given i expect their inflation to remain stagnant. Clear targets are 0.73 when probability of a cut is higher - though i would enter shorts regardless if AUD$ could find its way to its 12m highs at 0.78, though unlikely. - I like USD strength in the medium term too hence supporting the short Aussie dollar view RBA Minutes Highlights: RBA MINUTES: BOARD TO WATCH KEY DATA, WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENT TO RATES IF NEEDED; REVIEW OF FORECASTS IN AUG WILL HELP STEER POLICY - Inflation set to stay low for some time, employment mixed, retail sales look set to pick up - Stronger AUD would complicate economic rebalancing - Economic transition is now well advanced
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore AUD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further Euro Area exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling AUD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop. - Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (AUD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps AUD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short AU trade by increasing $ demand relative to AUD. 2. The RBA Meeting on Tuesday the 5th is likely to be dovish, as 1) Brexit risks are weighed in on again, after supportive/ dovish statements from RBA members following the Brexit decision and 2) AUD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the last meeting and the May Rate cut e.g. Retail sales 0.2% vs 0.3%, Unemployment flat at 5.7%. - However, I dont expect an RBA rate cut, as they cut last just 2 months ago in May by 25bps to 1.75% and their GDP print was firm at 3.1% v 2.8% yoy and 1.1% v 0.8% with Unemployment also stable (yet to see inflation), so I expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, with possible hints to a August rate cut - citing Brexit and looking forward to their end of July Inflation print as a gauge for further rate cuts. Nonetheless the dovish rhetoric should be strong enough to put pressure on AUD and tip the scales south supporting the AU short. 3. From a USD demand point of view, last week we saw USD lose 160pips against the AUD as Brexit Uncertainty negatively hit the Feds Rate hike cycle expectancy, flattening the curve in the front end which ruled out any hikes until Dec or 2017, fewer hikes = less USD strength. - However, since the beginning of the week where brexit risks ruled out hikes in the near term, the end of the week managed to turn rate hike expectations around as Brexit likelihood decreased/ shifted into 2017. This helped the Fed fund futures curve recover/ steepen somewhat in the front end, with the implied probability of a hike increasing from 0% to 5.9% for both September and November, whilst the probability of a hike in December also steepened significantly from 13.3% to 22.3% with the probability of a 50bps hike being priced for the first time at 1.1%. This trend of Fed Hike recovery is likely to continue as long as Brexit risks remain subdued, so we can expect USD to begin to price stronger in the coming days/ weeks. 4. Technically, AUDUSD trades 100pips away from a key handle at 0.76xx which is a double top and may provide the ideal short area. Further, higher than that at 0.78xx is the 12 month high which is also potentially a great level to get short from as a double top 5. Volatility - 1wk, 2wk and 1m (-1.52, -1.57, -1.60) AUDUSD Risk Reversals all trade with a downside bias indicating put/ downside demand is higher than upside, so the option market net expects AUDUSD to come down over the above tenors. - Out through the 5th, 6th, and 7th (post RBA) we see large notional OTM put options and open interest at 0.7365, 0.7440 & 0.7445 which supports the view that the RBA will be dovish and that AUDUSD is likely to hairpin around the 0.76xx double top level.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
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