#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - pltrGood evening and I hope you are well.
Let's do some single stock trading ideas. Palantir.
comment: The stock that lives on hopes and dreams of people who know few about IT and much less about data & analytics, much like Snowflake. Go look at the Snowflake chart. When I have read the ipo price in 2020 I told everyone it was a bubble and the stock should trade below 100 for many years until maybe big profits could come in. They are still years away from those big profits and the stock lost 49% from the IPO price. I do not know anyone who works in Data & Analytics and knows Palantir who tells anything positive about them. It's a hype stock that got good publicity because of investors and defense contracts. That stock will trade below 15 in either late 2024 or 2025. Not financial advice.
current market cycle: My dead dog can tell you it's a traingle and that is a form of a trading range and market is in breakout mode. Your job is to wait for the breakout and hop along, that's it. Now set the same alerts as I have and make money once they ring.
key levels: 20 - 27
bull case: Market is getting rejected at the 50% pb from all time low to all time high. That's bearish af. Only chance bulls have for this to trade back up is a weekly close above 27. Bulls have going for them, that there seems to be big passive buying at 20.50. They are also trading above the daily and weekly 20ema, which is also bullish.
Invalidation is below 20.
bear case: Once that buyer at 20.50 gives up, it's free fall. The triangle will probably play out and we see some downside from 23 to 20/21 again in the short term. Last earnings surprised upwards and bulls used that spike as exit liquidity. Tells you something.
Invalidation is above 26.
short term: bearish for trade back down to 20/21. Short term in this case means several weeks, since I'm posting the weekly chart.
medium-long term: I don't know which way the triangle breaks down to but either way, you can clearly see the big lows and highs. One of those will probably get retested before the other. So set the alarms and trade it when it breaks out.
I hope my insrted illustrations help you.
