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When Relief Rally Coincided with Quad WitchingYM1! The US equity market selloff in Q1 was pretty fierce due to a confluence of reasons. Even the large-cap stocks have entered Oversold territory, as suggested by the RSI on the E-mini Dow future. Since the middle of March, the equity market experienced a typical round of relief rally, coinciding with the Quad Witching, when a large amount of derivatives expiration, order flow, and rebalancing happened. Now the Dow is far away from the Oversold level, and the previous support has become overhead resistance. The decline will likely resume as the Fed is determined to tighten financial conditions to fight inflation. Entry at 34400, stop above 35450. Targets are 32500 and 30000. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by inspirante
DWAC Donald Trump vs Elon MuskAfter it took some of the market capitalizations of both Twitter and Facebook: now Trump media is facing a real opponent: Elon Musk. one of the most admired men in the planet. Musk transformed TSLA into a cult, the first meme stock, before meme stocks were cool. And it looks like the only one who can save Twitter too. In which he bought a 9.2% stake, worth $3Bil. In this situation, considering also Trump`s appreciation for Putin and that the US should leave NATO, i think its SPAC won`t get too much sympathy in the near future. In fact, i even expect a retracement to the 23.50 support. and you know that i am not bias when it comes to the stock market. i was the first calling the 150 price target for DWAC (it reached $175): Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
DShort
by TopgOptions
15
Is this the end of the bull market?Hello to everyone, I know these are difficult days for some of you – Bitcoin and many Altcoins are in the edge of a free fall – and you are confused what will happen. Was that a bull trap? Is this the end of the bull market? Last days Ukraine – Russia tensions are boosted by media over and over again. News like energy crisis, financial crisis, even an imminent World War 3 are reproduced all over the world and cause panic and uncertainty to most people. Whales control the Media and manipulate the crowd caused fear or greed. Then whales take advantage of situations and buy or sell respectively. Crisis Brings Opportunity. Uninformed investors give them their coins at the lowest prices. Politics is a very complicated game. Do not bet your hard-earned money on bad news or FOMO. Keep calm and let the market shows you what will happen. Let’s take a look at the charts. Bitcoin is trading in sideways for over a year. The crucial support level for a bearish reversal confirmation is at $28.8k. A decisive breakdown and close below that -in HTF 1M-, will signal the end of the primary trend (bull market) and the start bear market. At the time of writing this report, BTC is traded at $40.4k. Earlier today $39.6k support violated. If this level break, price may reach $35 – 33K very quick. Why? Because below $39.6k there are many stop loss order, novice traders will be panicked and some of them will short sell to cover their losses. We are still above the: short term bullish trendline Crucial support $39.6k Medium term bearish trendline The white rectangles on the chart are the most crucial support/demand areas for Bitcoin. If you’re bullish on Bitcoin place your limit buys near there. There is no guarantee that it will hit $35k or $29k again – before the primary bear market. Risk management – Stay to your plan – Control your emotions. The most important of all. If you can’t manage this situation, take some days off with family and friends. Do not overtrade. If you like my report, like, follow me here & on Twitter.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Rhaonnor
BITCOIN BTC-USD DEATHCROSS SIGNALS BEARS HAVE WON!Major sell off of bitcoin STILL LOOMING..I have also seen multiple death crosses on many other benchmarks. The feds and algorithms on our manipulated and rigged markets is trying really hard to rally and prop of all markets not just cryptocurrencies. These rallies will not hold in my opinion. The BEARS HAVE WON and i am seeing confirmed signals of a permanent bearish reversal that is leading to a possible recession globally. All other major worldwide benchmarks are being affected and suffering equally as well. BITCOIN ACTS MORE LIKE A BENCHMARK THAN A HEDGE. IT SEEMS TO FOLLOW THE SIMILIAR BEHAVIOR IM READING ON OTHER BENCHMARK CHARTS. IT IS NOT A HEDGE ANYMORE AND MORE THAN LIKELY NEVER REALLY WAS. WE HAVE THE TULIP MANIA ALL OVER AGAIN. IT ACTS LIKE THE DOW, NASDAQ OR S&P. Just my theoretical analysis of what i see. Take it with a grain of salt. Thank You, Cryptobuzzanalyst Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) is for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
Was the ROKU sell-off predictable?I warned you about than since i saw the Double Top Bearish Chart Pattern of ROKU last year: and then the Netflix earnings, thinking ROKU, as a former Netflix project, will be next: Now, after the earnings, i see a retracement to the May 2019 level. Net Sales: $865.3 million vs. $894 million expected Diluted EPS: $0.18 vs. $0.05 expected For 2022 Roku sees adjusted EBITDA similar to 2020 levels of $150 million vs The Street estimates of $535 million in adjusted operating profits.
NASDAQ:ROKUShort
by TopgOptions
1
SHOP Shopify First Price Target Reached On Feb 3rd i was writing this article saying that the price targets after the Feb 16th earnings are $715 and $531: At that time, the price was $929. i know it seemed ridiculous. But today the fist price target was reached and i have closed 50% of my position. The Slowing Growth Outlook was the main catalyst for the selloff: "There is caution around inflation and consumer spend near term, for the full year.”, Shopify officials said, adding: "full year revenue growth will be lower than the 57% increase in 2021." My price target for this year is $531. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:SHOPShort
by TopgOptions
1
TWLO the next PTON ???Twilio lets companies converse with customers through text messages. The company expects to be profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2023. But it already has a mk cap of $36.02Bil + 19% in the pre-market, it`s a 42.84 Mk cap for a non profitable company. How further the growth thesis go if Royal Bank of Canada has a Price target of $400 for it??? Even though it is trending now, in my opinion Twilio will be the next Peloton because of its ack of profitability. My price target is $130. Q4 loss of $291.4 million quarterly loss of $0.20 per share VS a loss of $0.21 Zacks Consensus Estimate VS earnings of $0.04 per share a year ago. Fourth-quarter revenue increased to $842.7 million VS analysts’ average estimate of $768.6 million. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:TWLO
by TopgOptions
4
When Trends Emerge... Embrace Them!The price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment, the marketplace. A price trend is the most accurate reflection of the market’s sentiment. When buyers are more aggressive, prices rise, and when sellers overwhelm buyers, prices decline. The stock market trend reversed The S&P 500 is the leading stock market index The trend bent Ride the wave until the technical position changes Never try to pick a top or bottom; the market’s sentiment will tell you all you need to know In his 2004 book, The Wisdom of Crowds, author James Surowiecki used case studies to prove that “the many are smarter than the few, and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations.” A price trend embodies Surowiecki’s work, and that is why the trend is always a trader or investor’s best friend. When I first began my trading career in the early 1980s, my mentors taught me never to “fight the tape.” They were old-school traders who learned their craft in the days when stock prices were printed on a ticker tape. Fighting the tape is going against the trend. When the path of least resistance of a market changes from bullish to bearish or vice versa, it is a signal to take profits, losses, and reverse a risk position. The most successful trend-following traders and investors ride trends until they bend, aiming to take the most significant percentage of profits from a bullish or bearish price pattern. There can be plenty of false signals that lead to choppy results but catching a significant trend and riding it like a surfer rides a wave can be gratifying and highly profitable. The recent price action in the US stock market points to a significant trend change from bullish to bearish. The stock market trend reversed After reaching a record high of 4,808.25 on January 4, the March E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract ran out of upside steam, reversed, and has made lower highs and lower lows. The chart highlights the decline to the most recent low of 4,212.75 on January 24, a 12.4% decline in only twenty days. The futures contract was around the 4,420 level at the end of last week, closer to the recent low than the early January high. The Fed’s more hawkish approach to monetary policy has weighed on the stock market as stocks compete with bonds for capital. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape has likely caused selling as tensions between the US and Russia have risen to a post-Cold War high. The S&P 500 is the leading stock market index The S&P 500 is the most diversified stock market indicator and the bellwether for monitoring the overall equities asset class. While the recent selloff may appear as another speed bump, a close below the 4,495.12 level on January 31 would put in a bearish key reversal trading pattern on the monthly S&P 500 chart. A bearish reversal in Bitcoin and Ethereum on November 10 led to a price implosion in the cryptocurrency arena that took prices over 50% lower at the most recent lows last week. The S&P 500 closed more than 60 points below the critical level on January 28. The trend bent Trends reflect market sentiment. As we move into 2022’s second month, the stock market looks more than shaky. Higher interest rates, geopolitical problems, COVID-19 variants, rising inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, the potential for rising US corporate and individual tax rates, and other issues have caused selling to emerge in the equities market. There have been plenty of false signals in the stock market over the years. However, when corrections occur, they can be brutal. The last substantial correction took the S&P 500 from 3,393.52 in February 2020 to a low of 2,191.86 in March 2020 as the worldwide pandemic gripped markets. The 35.4% drop from one month to the next was a reminder that when the trend bends, it is best to follow the sentiment. The cost of trend-following is choppy results when markets display false breakdowns or recoveries. When trends emerge, the profits can more than compensate for short-term losses. The bullish trend in the US stock market bent in early 2022 and is now bearish at the end of January. Ride the wave until the technical position changes Trend-following is like surfing. It can take a long time to paddle around through small waves until a substantial one appears on the scene. Surfers look to ride the wave when it arrives. The S&P 500 has already dropped by over 12% in January, and a bearish reversal at the end of January could cause even more follow-through selling. Daily price volatility has increased, and rallies during a bearish trend can be particularly nasty for those holding short risk positions; thus, the term “rip your face off rally.” The critical factor in trend following is to begin riding the wave early so that you can stomach the ups and downs that naturally occur as the market gyrates between higher and lower prices on an intra-day and even intra-week basis. Those gyrations can cause the emotional impulses that cause many traders and investors to lose money or minimize profits. For trend-followers with the fortitude to suppress emotions, riding the bullish or bearish wave until it changes direction is the formula that separates winners from losers over time. Never try to pick a top or bottom; the market’s sentiment will tell you all you need to know Our emotions want us to be correct, and the emotional impulses are more concerned with calling a direction than profiting from the market. It is virtually impossible to call bottoms or tops in markets consistently, and successful trend-followers tend to be long at the top and short at the bottom. While this may seem counter-intuitive, it is the critical factor for profitability. Sentiment is a powerful force that often ignores news, expert fundamental analysis, and all other noise that surrounds markets each day. Sentiment creates price trends that indicate the path of least resistance of prices. Picking tops or bottoms denies physics that teaches a body in motion tends to stay in motion. In finance, the trend is your friend until it bends is the same construct. As of the end of last week, the trend in the stock market was bearish, and we will ride the wave until the market sentiment tells us it is time to ride another in the opposite direction. We are constantly long or short the highly liquid markets we trade, and we may get chopped up when sentiment is confused and provides false signals. However, we are always positioned to participate when the big moves come. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPXShort
by Andy_Hecht
1