Selloff
VIX - PRCE OBJECTIVES30 /38 / 45
We favor the 40s during the dirty second drop.
Algos are working the limits of the Falling Wedge.
The VIX-Plosion is dead ahead as resolution is less
than two weeks away.
The lower compression in Range lows will see a dip-in
as often occurs to shake out the weak hands.
Cruse Oil should see follow through in the coming weeks.
We are beginning to accumulate and reposition our VIX Curve
entries and will post them here as they are filled.
Bonds are about to reverse throughout the Longer end
which continues to Flatten and turn down, indicating a
very large contraction in Economic Activity.
Divergences are frankly astounding and being ignored
by the Chasers, who although ONLY playing in options
on balance - are weak hands there as well.
Gamma only goes so far this Friday.
ROKU double TOP | Less Streaming Viewing55.1 million active customer accounts for the quarter and 17.4 billion streaming hours.
VS
55.8 million active customer accounts and 19.19 billion streaming hours. (The Bloomberg Consensus estimate)
The chart pattern looks like a double top.
FSLY Fastly Head and Shoulders Price TargetThe head and shoulders pattern is one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
The distance from the neckline to the head is the same for the retracement from the neckline to the bottom.
In this case, using Renko candles to understand better the H&S chart pattern, the price target is 31usd.
USDCAD SELL USDCAD short position, I have sold this pair for many reasons, one reason is that USDCAD has had a major sell-off for more than two weeks; has been forming lower lows and lower highs...
Price has reached the 0.786 area @1.25680 and has shown major resistance, such as wicks and LL/LH on smaller time frames.
USDCAD has also formed a double top that may indicate a reversal.
I am risking 2% on this trade. Risk to Reward on this trade is 1.2.
SPY - Bearish Arrangements4422 - Gap and Crap complete.
A lower High on smaller timeframes led to Sell Signals which
were quickly heeded.
The 50/200 are now pointing due South on 5 minute timeframe.
Last Thursday the Divergences provided an enormous warning.
Negative Histograms are waiting.
Chasers are eyeing a considerable "Panic Cycle" setting up whereby
the "everything must go sale" begins and leaves they wanting a return
to "normal" - BTD Failed.
It is rejection, a nasty and very sporty rejection which appears to be
lost on the Herd.
We continue to press our VIX Curve Trade with 21.75 today's target.
I have been buying @ 2050-2055 with buys in all the way down to
2015-2025 for a larger press.
Conditions in the Markets have reversed, the largest gains are made
ahead of the broader Point of Recognition.
The Weekly and Daily indicators are simply N A S T Y.
Sellers were lurking at the Gap Fill and slammed the Chippers and
Dippers.
Ignore them are you peril.
Catalyst abound, pay close attention to the Bond Market.
Consumers are pulling back quickly as Uncertainty ReignsThe Indices will see a healthy correction into the Seasonal Period of Extreme Weakness.
We Anticipate a LARGE Selloff to begin during Globex Sunday followed by further selling
into Monday.
The PRICE of the things we need is an issue... it is not lost on Institutions.
They are heavily positioning for SELL.
TCEHY Tencent Head And Shoulders Chart PatternIn the chart you can see a schoolbook Head And Shoulders Bearish Chart Pattern.
Theory says that you measure the distance from the neckline to the top and then consider the same distance to discover the bottom from the neckline down.
In this case it coincides with the strong 40usd support!
ARK also sold its positions in TCEHY Tencent Holdings Limited.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it!
BEKE KE Holdings. ARK sold all its 9Mil sharesIn a selloff that can predict a new market valuation on Chinese stocks, ARK Invest sold all its 9 139 000 shares of BEKE.
Looking at its financials, BEKE is not a bad stock to own at at price lower than its IPO.
The company had revenue increase year over year in the last 4 years, but only in 2020 went profitable with 2.78Bil Earnings. They also have a decent PE Ratio (TTM) : 39.71
The question is: would you buy now what ARK sold for a loss??
Even Buffett was wrong when he sold Delta Airlines or Icahn about Hertz!
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
YQ 17 Education New Regulations UpdateDon`t you like basic technical analysis without fundamentals whatsoever to back it up?
Because otherwise before entering the pump you would paid attention to 17 Education & Technology Group Inc. business update: "institutions providing after-school tutoring services on academic subjects in China's compulsory education system, or Academic AST Institutions, need to be registered as non-profit; changing the current registration-based regime for operating online Academic AST Institutions to a government approval-based regime". (globenewswire.com)
Or maybe you want to own a foundation or a nonprofit company?!
A temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions is called a Dead Cat Bounce!
China's crackdown on for-profit education companies was a disaster for traders not using a stop loss.
In the 52 Week Range 17 Education & Technology Group Inc. went from 23.9 to 1.02usd. i almost can`t imagine such a loss!
After-school tutoring institutions must transform themselves into "nonprofit organizations".
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
ARK Invest dumps Chinese stocks.
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
DIDI Global ideaAt the time of DIDI`s IPO i was tempted to enter this stock because i was listing to Jim Cramer`s blessing: 'I would try to get as many shares as you can'. i hope he didn`t. and i haven`t entered either because i considered the valuation too high for a company that last year had negative earnings, -10.84Bil.
And in comparison i was listing to analysts saying that UBER will never be a profitable company. So why would i invest in the Chinese copy of a business that didn't find the path to profitability for so many years?!
The funny thing is that after going down 55% from the IPO day, Jim Cramer reevaluated the Chinese stocks: "You can't own Chinese stocks"! :)
I`m looking forward to read your opinion on Chinese stocks right now.
GOTU A simple question for bullish tradersGOTU had negative earnings last year, -1.39 Billion dollars to be precise. So it`s a money eating machine that burns a lot of cash just to operate. How do you see Gaotu Techedu raising money this year? Would you buy a public offering from a nonprofit company?
Now look at the 15% recovery today and think about this perspective: a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions is called a Dead Cat Bounce! :)
China's crackdown on for-profit education companies was a disaster for traders not using a stop loss.
In the 52 Week Range Gaotu Techedu Inc. went from 149 to 2.4usd
After-school tutoring institutions must transform themselves into "nonprofit organizations".
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
ARK Invest dumps Chinese stocks.
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
TAL Education Dead Cat Bounce ?Think about this perspective: a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions. this is the Dead Cat Bounce!
China's crackdown on for-profit education companies was a disaster for traders not using a stop loss.
In the 52 Week Range TAL Education Group went from 90.96 to 4.03usd.
After-school tutoring institutions must transform themselves into "nonprofit organizations".
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
ARK Invest dumps Chinese stocks.
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
NIO vs similar Market cap Car ProducerNIO Market Cap 64.492B
BMW Market Cap 65.701B
NIO Revenue 2020: 16.26B usd
NIO Earnings 2020: -5.61B usd
BMW Revenue 2020: 104.21B euro
BMW Earnings 2020: 4.92B euro
NIO Revenue Q1 2021: 7.98B usd
NIO Earnings Q1 2021: -4.87B usd
BMW Revenue Q1 2021: 26.78B euro
BMW Earnings Q1 2021: 2.81B euro
NIO Forward Dividend & Yield N/A (N/A)
BMW Forward Dividend & Yield 1.90 (2.22%)
And NIO is not audited by an American company.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
When i wrote my first article about NIO it was undervalued at 6.98usd and my target was around 18usd. i sold it between 12 to 14. I reentered at 20, but just for the hype.
Now i started to become more confident in my first target. :)
Most likely it will test the 30usd support.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about NIO.
EDU a "nonprofit organization"China's crackdown on for-profit education companies was a disaster for traders not using a stop loss.
In the 52 Week Range EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. went from 19.9740 to 1.9400usd.
After-school tutoring institutions must transform themselves into "nonprofit organizations".
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
ARK Invest dumps Chinese stocks.
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
ARDX Ardelyx FDA bad news. Last support for bounceThe FDA is unlikely to approve Ardelyx`s drug for dialysis patients.
Ardelyx received a letter from the FDA stating that deficiencies in the information provided had been found that would preclude discussion of approvals Ardelyx has sought.
The most likely target is the 1.6usd support line from which it can bounce up.
ETH: new 3-month low| large wick on 4H candle gives some hopeAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
Quick glance: In our last analysis on ETH, we suggested to wait before thinking to buy the dip. And rightly so, it has dropped by another 12% since our previous analysis. ETH has formed a new 3-month low reaching the $1700 mark. The large wick on the bottom of the latest 4H candle indicates some buying activity. However, market is still largely dominated by the bears.
Market in the last 24hrs
The last 24 hours witnessed a massive selloff. Stop losses were triggered caused prices to drop sharply, and triggered a further panic selling.
Today’s Trend analysis
ETHUSD seems to be under huge selling pressure. The low created at $1700 is a 3-month low for ETHUSD.
Price volatility remained extremely high at approximately 17.4%, with the day's range between $1700 — $1997.00.
Price at the time of publishing: $1767.35
ETH's market cap: $206.44 Billion
Out of 11 Oscillator indicators, 7 are neutral, and 3 are bearish.
Out of 15 Moving average indicators, 14 are bearish , and 1 is neutral .
Indicator summary is strongly bearish for ETHUSD.
Volumes have spiked up tremendously in the past 24 hours.
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The analysis is based on signals from 26 technical indicators, out of which 15 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4Hr candles.
Note: Above analysis would hold true if we do not encounter a sudden jump in trade volume .
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
Are Transports signaling a broad market top?Transports tend to lead the markets. and this is a very key level. looking on a monthly time frame You can see transports just hit the top of the trendline that dates back to 2009. In the instance every time market either cooled down or sold off fairly sharply. is the parabolic move over? Transports might be the key to tell us it is. I am currently short IYT and will close the short on prior ATH. target price 190.
Technical sell off analysis Presented is a 1 hr chart analysis leaning towards a sell off. We are retesting our top resistance area of 70.00. With immediate volatile action in this zone sentiments a sell off.
$70 a barrel seems to be our top target reversal. I have 2 take profit targets of 68 and 66.50. Price action is consistent with oil making these targets ever more accurate.
RSI and SRSI are loading up for a sell off out of the overbought zone.
Important to keep in mind a break and close out above 70 will shoot to retest 71. Enter after a significant sell off bar that initiates strong reversal.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
I believe this is not bear marketEven after 50% + correction i believe this is not end of bull market. If we zoom and look at daily chart we can see clearly wyckoff theory and manipulated move. I believe whales are just trying to panic newbies and retail to sell. Miners are still not selling, stock to flow is showing to us this is not end or even close to peak, a lot inflow of stable coins to exchanges, a lot of adresses more than 1000+ bitcoins are adding more. I refuse to sell in this dip even if this is beginning of bear market. I believe we can reach $200-400k range in middle of 2022 per bitcoin. I think this is just bear trap before real gains.
BTC Major Resistance!Hello Community!
BTC /USDT is currently attempting to move above the major S/R zone (white line) shown on the chart. We need to close above this line on the 4hr or Daily TF for this bullish momentum to continue. If entering a trade don't forget to use a stop loss. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and comment. It'll be greatly appreciated!
This is not financial advice.
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BTCUSD- Downside Projection 21K If we take a look back at the 2017-2018 Crypto run up and sell off the similarities in price action are eerie. I went through studying all the moves trying to find a proper price target based on measured moves with little success. However, today I had a realization, once BITSTAMP:BTCUSD was unable to rally, and a large liquidation through $30000, I realized that we could be on track for another 50% downturn from this level as distribution continues.
Comparison -
Here is an image of the 2018 drop and as we can see their similarities are glaring. Bitcoin made a new high moving up 492% from a swing low. Dominance fell off sharply right before this high was made topping out around 71. This was followed by a sharp drop in dominance. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin continued its rally finally running out of gas at 19666. Here is where things really become interesting. Ethereum the second most popular cryptocurrency at the time (coinmarketcap.com), began to go on an insane rally. After making all time highs with bitcoin, it pulled back with bitcoin but from its swing low of 501, it pumped 183%. ETH just completed an identical pattern putting in a swing low and rallying 125%. As the ETH high was put in, Bitcoin continued to oscillate in a small range and began to lose dominance at a very rapid rate. From the ATH to the bottom of dominance bitcoins price dropped 36%. Today's measurements show a 34% drop but the pattern between highs and in dominance in price are identical. Once Ethereum put in new highs, It sharply dropped and the crypto market was all downhill from there. Bitcoins dominance finally bottomed out yet prices across the crypto market continued declining rapidly. If today is the bottom of Bitcoins dominance (beginning to look that way) I wholly expect for the market to continue lower. Bitcoin regained a dominance of over 60 after 241 days down trending The price change during this time was a drop of 58%. I expect for BTC.D to be able to top 60 in half of that time as this bear cycle pans out.
Key Differences -
While theoretically, history would suggest that Bitcoin drops 80% off highs however, this seems unrealistic without major fundamental shift. Integration into businesses and money transferring apps gives Bitcoin lots more value than it had during 2018. People are interested in Cryptocurrency but the liquidity retail has brought into the market is a double edged blade. On the one hand, there is more money going into a product with a cap on supply which will always raise price, on the other hand there is more liquidity for short sellers to take advantage of. Another aspect that has changed is institutional investing. With larger interests now holding bitcoin due to incredible alpha and versatility such as protection against inflation (something that has not been present recently but I will save it for another post) is a huge win for Bitcoin. Many institutions would likely find Bitcoin a steal at 21K as it continues to grow mainstream. These differences are the main reason I only project a 50% drop in price for bitcoin. That being said, these are only my thoughts and there could be a drastic change in Bitcoin in the near future that completely changes the market, I will update this idea if that is the case.
Conclusion -
I hope whoever is reading this was able to take something away from it. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts or a conflicting view.
Meaning of Lines
Red Dashed- Dominance Low
Green Dashed- Dominance High
Gold- Price High
