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US 30 Down Trending: Double Cascade Correction ImminentBusy chart. US 30 is trending down since 26 Feb 19, and 22 March Price Shock was pivotal IMO: Note the long TL at bottom reaching back to 1996. Scroll R/L to see the extension. IMO this line will define the bottom for the 2020 bear market. Note the two-year 'Trump' TL which has enjoyed a parabolic run-up since election and corporate tax cuts. This curve is unsustainable and will drop back to the long TL, sooner than later IMO. NB: The 2018 Zig-Zag Correction and subsequent Bear Market Rally have produced a Head & Shoulders pattern on grand scale going back to Jan 2018 (triple tops charted under umbrellas). In shorter perspective, US 30 is in a down trend since 25 Feb, when it made a lower high around 26240. It's trading well below that now, after rejection from the TL formed by highs of 03 October, 25 Feb (X-X TL). Small arrow over 19-26 March period shows stair-step of lower highs. Bearish engulfing candle on 22 Feb was extremely ominous; a clear sell signal, provoked by rate inversion, a highly reliable indicator of recession. According to WSJ on 3/24/19, the yield curve has inverted before each of the past seven recessions. Nice article on what it means exactly and why it happens; essentially; bond investors' demand for long-term notes has driven their yields lower, as confidence in short-term paper falls, given an expectation that future paper will pay less: www.thebalance.com "Price shock" on Friday 22 March occurred on/about Spring Equinox, a period often marked by trend changes. This arrived after a three-week rally following a brief decline from the 25 Feb high, a date 61 days from the 26 Dec trend change; significantly: In "45 Years on Wall St" W.D. Gann noted; "Rule 4: Buy and sell on 3 Weeks' reaction or decline... in a Bear Market sell on a rally of three weeks after you know the trend is down... After a market rallies or declines more than 45 to 49 days, the next time period is around 60 to 65 days, which is about the greatest average time the a Bear Market Rallies, or a Bull Market Declines." "Rule 8. Time Periods; Dates for Changes in Trends: ...March 20 to 27th. Sometimes major tops or bottoms occur around these dates." General observation: following a Price Shock, the market may Rally for 3-5 days before the Down Trend resumes in earnest. When these Rallies are rejected from a TL, the resulting reaction can provoke Panic Selling and Capitulation. Look back at Jan 29 Jan to Feb 1 and 3-10 October periods, where brief consolidation occurred just before Waterfall Selloffs, following the initial Price Shock. Of the past 11 corrections of 10+%, 9 have produced double bottoms. Of the past 13 Bear Markets, only 7 have correctly indicated the arrival of a recession. The market is a lousy forecaster! But, this means that 46% of Bear Markets occur without a recessionary environment...! See: www.cnbc.com WXYXZ patterns depicted only suggest a possible path, this is of course completely unknowable, as predictions are always hard to make, especially when it's about the future! If you scroll back to Feb-June 2018 there are two 'M' patterns with the WXYXZ path. Although the markets could simply roll over and throw down to a double bottom, IMO a complex pattern is more likely, given the titanic struggle with Bulls & Bears ongoing. I do not pretend to predict the course of US 30. However, it is apparent we are in a Down Trend; the index has rejected from the X-X TL and is rotating lower as it gets Mark-Down. The possibility of a severe Secondary Correction with Capitulation Panic within three months is quite real. Note that the X-X TL intersects the 1996 Long TL at price 17,734... this nearly coincides with support back to 2015 around 18,023. Expect eventual bottom formation around Dow 18K. Risk in US Equities is very high now. Prices are within 85% of ATH (All major indexes reached and turned back from Fibonacci 8:55 ratio = 0.85455). It would be prudent to exit long positions and preserve capital. Speculate on price mark-downs at your own risk! That being said, I've taken Bearish Positions in: SDOW; SPXS; TECS; SPY 282 May Put; QQQ May 180 Put. Growl! NB: This is not investment advice; just my own speculative idea; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
4
SPY Retracement Scenario Before Continued Sell OffHere is a scenario for a 50%-61.8% retracement for SPY, up above $282, before continuing it's sell off. Looking to the left, there was a very similar structure in late February into early March. You can see how the peaks are quite identical, and on the low following the last peak, there was a retracement between 50%-61.8%... and also to the area of the 100MA. Currently, that would represent a bounce up above 282 before the selling resumes. On the current chart, I drew 2 fib lines... The left one is just to show that the intraday bounce on Friday, March 22 came no where near the level that could be expected from the earlier chart, which would have been between 282.30 and 282.90. It instead topped out at 281.51. This was also well short of the 100MA. If that was THE retracement, then steep selling is likely to continue. If the low associated with the left fib lines is not "the low following the last peak", then we can count it as not in yet, and take the lowest low from the end of the day. The right fib lines are to show how high the retracement could be before the selling continues. Also, notice the little RSI divergence to end the day... Both scenarios are bearish, and would see new lows by this time next week. This is merely to point out the precedence of a possible nice bullish play before we get there....IF the bounce to 281.51 was not it. Travis JMJ - UIOGD
AMEX:SPY
by Procinctu
Boeing's Descent - Sell Now Watch out for Boeing short selling tomorrow. There are a few pieces of news that will surely sell a 5-10% sell off of Boeing this coming week. The headlines will certainly scare investors as investors wake up to the recent news and announcements from Boeing. This stock may not be a "Buy the Dip" stock, since confidence in current and future aircraft is shaken, Boeing stock may take time to recover from this. Key points from March 10th to look out for: Second Boeing 737-800 MAX has crashed shortly after take off in Ethiopia. Ethiopia Airlines has grounded all 737-800 MAX Fleet China has now grounded all 737-800 MAX planes. Boeing has postponed the 777X Debut in Seattle indefinitely .
NYSE:BAShort
by WorldEconomics
UPDATE!!! BOTTOM NOT IN! Last pump to $4100 before BULLTRAP!Hello.. comparing BTC to the last bulltrap.. i can see again another Bulltrap forming. Reasons: Too much resistance on the upper side NVT still didnt show oversold market (i trust this indicator) Its too early for a bullmarket Lower lows means higher highs We are STILL in the big falling wedge (Which i will show in the comments) I expect the pump tomorrow. Price will propably fall down to $3915 and then pump to $4100 After that i expect a big rejection which will lead to a sell off!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by iBeardy
21
Bitcoin sell off on SundayI am not a licensed financial adviser. Now that that is out of the way, let's look at Bitcoin. It is currently trading below the Ema25 , Ema 50 , Ma 50 , 100 and 200. Rsi has fallen to 39.6, and it is a Thursday. Repeated rejections of 4k have caused BTC to be tightly range bound these past few days , but today, for now at least, it has a direction, and that direction is south. It is my belief that tomorrow and or Saturday it will enter a demand zone, and a rally will be attempted, but the repeated rejections of 4k have very likely left a psychological imprint on the emotional sector of the market , which sadly comprises maybe 65% of it. The rest of us know that it could rise if it were allowed to. 2018 was a brutal year for the crypto sector in general , and it has been only in the past few months that a sleeping bear has awakened and changed into a bull costume. The problem is, it is a costume. Factor in the crypto press. Despite almost always being wrong, the emotional sector and the newbies haven't realized that yet. Many people seem to still take CCN , Nulltx etc. seriously. They will learn. One big hope has been institutional commitment , yet in order for that to happen en masse , Bitcoin needs to show stability and or upward movement in a sustained fashion. Something it has failed to do time and time again. Despite this there have been tentative but timid moves by Fidelity and other big names , perhaps part of what led to this latest rally, there has been news from the sec , another positive - but the community is deeply scarred and full of F.U.D. Weekends being what they usually are, I suspect that Sunday is going to be a bad day for bitcoin , and by proxy altcoins in general. I'm keeping my trades tight, small, and careful at this point. Best of luck out there. Fortis fortuna adiuvat Caveat Emptor.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Cryptocautious
1
USD/CHF 60 PIPS Short Reasons why to short USD/CHF: Parabolic SAR Indicates a Parabolic bearish reversal in price Cloud breakout at the major resistance zone indicates sell pressure and more proof we are going to reverse because the previous cloud breakout at the major zone also indicated a sell off. We broke the trendline and good selling support has shown ATR indicates a rise in volume anytime soon which means big movements DXY Looks Bearish Reasons why to go long on USD/CHF DXY looks Bearish but news can cause a bullish legg on the upside to 97.00 Area Because sometimes unlogical movement in the market is logical movement, banks playing around.
Short
by QW-Trading
Watch Treasuries for signs of the next Equity selloffThe inverse correlation of Stocks and Bonds have been quite telling in the recent months of equity volatility. The 10Y yield went from 3.25% in early Nov to lows of 2.55% as participants flew to safety in treasuries. In the last couple weeks as equities have recovered from the Dec 24th meltdown, treasuries have been sold with yields resting now around 2.75-2.8%. I am looking to see demand for treasuries as the major Equity indices test overhead resistance. After a 14% rally on the S&P in a matter of a month a pullback looks likely. If we see 10Y yields once again trending down expect blood for risk assets. Cheers
TVC:US10Y
by skyman9025
BITCOIN: Swing-Setup! Short down to 3k?'Market is a mess!#ChanceHey tradomaniacs, welcome to another free signal! Important: MARKET is a manipulated mess! No liquidity = hard volatility! Make sure to place a sell-limit after the break through the 61,8% retracement and the trendline! ----------------------------- Type: Swingtrade Sell-Limit: 3.596 Stop-Loss: 3.800 Target 1: 3.376 Target 2: 3.217 Targt 3: 3.033 ----------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Trading2ez
3
ASX200 Sell Off. We are drifting upwards on Trump- Xi talks although we are still bouncing between Fibonacci shorts. What will happen if Trump and Xi do not have a good talk and reach no agreement? We will see another sharp sell off. Trumps angry tweets when he gets back to his hotel room will propel that. According to my analysis we are in the midst of another 10% sell off (from where my forecast start) We touched that level and I think we will see another complete 10% sell off with a big wick. Do not buy Indices yet only look to short them. China is stubborn and they will take there time to address this matter, they investment optimism in Africa and they are looking to move away from the USA. Major US companies are not doing well and are still have many present problems (Apple, Facebook)
ASX:XJOShort
by SnipingRabbit
Big BTC hodlers cashed out?Greetings everyone! I've been observing markets and I've noticed this Tether FUD has created a great move for big bag holders to get out of BTC. I'm sure we still have a majority of volume O-T-C, but I imagine some big holders could take advantage of this weeks demand to get out of USDT into BTC, etc. I've also marked a couple places on the MACD with flat lines that lead to further drop offs, and it looks like we're approaching another zone. I don't think we'll go to 3k anytime soon, but I wouldn't doubt $5,000 or so within a couple months at most, and could see another decent drop coming within a week or two leading to a progressive sell off. We could also say if a shift was coming upwards the volume would've at least progressed up, but instead it's gone lower after the incident. Make sure to stay protected in the markets. I'd also like to point out when a herd of sheep is directed into the slaughter house they typically aren't benefiting, so I don't see anything different for this recent Tether incident. Especially when these people fell for a fake image which obviously wasn't officially from Binance.
Short
by frostyflakeds