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Selloff

Long term correction after halving?It seems that the price hit the optimal level to begin sell off. The buying back phase will start at 460 level, to form accumulation range between 480 and 510. In my opinion we will have lot of selling just before BTC halving and than, after it the price will bounce to the 680 area again. As usually, we will see the triangle forming. However I don't think that we will have next bull run. The price might even break resistance line for short time, to trap breakout buyers. The supply - demand ratio need to stabilize and this time, the bears will push price lower. That's why more probable scenario for me is breaking current trend line and support testing at 450 level.
BShort
by fosis
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK VS UK EU REFERENDUMThis article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Price Action and Trends Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - The first 8 of the 10 weeks GU traded extremely bid, selling off 1000pips from 1.7000 to 1.6000 . GU failed to make any significant recoveries during this period - signifying an extremely strong down-trend. - at the end of the down trend and coming into the REF, GU recovered 40% from 1.6000 on the 9th Sep, to 1.64000 on the 18th Sep (event vol highs at 1.6580). The sell off the proceeded to continue after the event, selling off back to 1.5900 by week 12/13. - Price action remained significantly below the 50 & 20 VWMA throughout the 10-week period and after the event - confirming the strong down-trend. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - Since the bottom formed on 29th Feb at 1.3850, GU has been trading in an up trend, forming marginally higher highs and higher lows. However, the uptrend has turned into sideways action in the last 3-4 weeks as GU has failed to make new highs of any significance and is failing to make higher lows - and the high-low range is tightening. in the last 10 weeks GU has risen 330 pips from 1.4270 to 1.4500 close-close and has had a range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. In the last 5 Weeks however GU traded flat closed to close at 1.4500, with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730 illustrating the tightening range, sideways movement and end to the trend - the market is sleeping and is waiting for a stimulus to break in a direction. - At the start of the 10 week period, Price bullishly crossed the 50 & 20 VWMA and has stayed above since, confirming an up trend. The 20 period, however, has been trading choppy, illustrating the low trend/ direction and the significant pull-backs. Comparisons 1. The Scot REF priced GU over 1000 pips lower in the 10 week period, in a decisive downward move - however, this UK EU event has failed to do anything similar and has actually done the opposite by rising in the last 10 weeks, currently trading up 300 pips. - Why? imo there is only 2 reasons why there has been such a big difference in the price action. 1. The reason GU isnt pricing downward is because GU already priced/ factored in Brexit uncertainty into the downside we saw between december 18th.15 to March 2nd.16, which took us from 1.5300 to 1.3800 which is a whopping 1500+pips lower - this was likely FOMC hike driven but given the extent of the move, it is highly likely that brexit was included in the price lower - hence why we are not seeing a move now - the UK REF is already in the price. 2. The less likely reason is that GU isnt pricing the move because 1). the market has been scared stiff by the uncertainty, and people simple arent willing to take risk either way thus explaining why price is trading flat/sideways. or 2) GU is planning on making a significant run to the downside in the next two weeks where it could shed 1000 pips if it falls back to 1.3800; or even 700 pips if it moves to 1.4000 which isnt that far off of the 1000pip Scot Ref move. The technical indicators are just mirror a function of price thus I will not read into the technicals much - obviously the Scot Ref indicators spent much of the time depressed since the price was falling rapidly, whilst the UK EU Ref has been mixed - since the price is trading sideways. *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC.
by QuantumLogicTrading
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK V UK EU REFERENDUM 2This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Ranges Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips. - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips. - from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. -In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730. Comparisons In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels. Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market. Technicals Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of which failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels. - Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70. - Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now. - Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions. * See the first article in this series (linked to this article) *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
FINALLY! GOLD COMPLETES THE RISK-OFF *3* - !SHORT EQUITIES!Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today following a poor NFP print but STRONG Unemployment print. IMO gold is rallying higher as the probability for a fed hike becomes higher since unemployment is their target measure along with inflation (and not NFP as some will believe). with all 3 riskoff assets rallying this means there CANNOT be enough liquidity in the market to push risk assets (SPX/NAS100/DJ30) to new highs as well - its all but a 0 sum game - the liquidity to push JPY BONDS and GOLD higher MUST have come from risk assets. I believe this will be the end of the modest bull run for equities #downwego probably starting next week. A movement lower in equities at his point is well served - we have many high risk events coming up and i believe people will be getting out of risk and into safety starting next week given 1: fed on the 16th 2. brexit on the 23rd and also BOJ on the 16th (along with a slew of other Central banks also due to declare their monetary policy). Given the above uncertainties/ Risks NOW seems a perfect time for investors to flee to safety and for the SPX to follow suit 5-10% lower in the coming weeks. As per my previous articles this answers all of the questions, we now have enough uncertainty momentum to push gold UP and stocks down IMO.. the paradoxical bonds/jpy AND stocks higher will come to an end in the coming days with STOCKS selling off for at least 4 weeks. PLease see the attached articles for more information.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
S&P 500 Push It Real Good!The S&P 500 is starting to look pretty dismal on the longterm daily chart, despite the recent relief rally. Following the curves, price is on track to go into panicked free fall sometime in June or July. But as is the chaotic nature of the seneca cliff, It could fall a lot sooner than that. The exquisite head & shoulders top that forms the multi year crest of this price pattern has a technical target of 1530. But H&S reversals are known to kick off much more aggressive bear or bull markets than their technicals elude to; Especially when they have developed over such a considerable time frame like this one.
FX:SPX500Short
by UnknownUnicorn59736
2
Short On AUD/USD SELL SELL SELL !!!(Change of heart after break)Reasons for -We have broken our 4 Hour trend line to the downside -Therefore we have broken structure and i 100% believe that after the break we are headed down -We are going to get a impulse wave and this is a strong setup - after all the long term trend is bearish ! Yes weve had two small losses but we are going to make it back on this one ;) Also this is an aggressive entry you may want to wait for the pull back :) On the daily we have put in a bearish engulfing also the previous daily candle was huge bearish candle ! on the daily we can also price making Higher lows ! so we are headed down now i believe My entry 0.70430
Short
by ARFXC
15
Short On USD/CAD SELL SELL SELL !!!Reasons For -We are now down trending on the 4 hour chart -We always want to trade in the direction of the trend -We are making lower lows and lower highs -We are trading below key level at 1.4000 Which we broke with a strong downside move -If we put a Fib in from previous Lower high to the new Lower low price is reacting to the 0.618 Level -Sign of retrace Over ? -We have put in two dojis in on the 4 hour time frame -We have also come to our trend line that is acting as Res and also showing signs of bullish weakness So if we put all those together on the 4 Hour time frame we are extremely bearish If we look at the daily -We are also making new lows and currently in a new forming down trend The trend is your friend -The biggest confluence for me is we have broken the previous higher low on the daily when the uptrend was in affect we have come lower then the previous higher low Which also signifies a change of trend and direction -So after all the bullishness over the past couple years isit over ? well for now we are in full affect to make a new lower low in this current trend which is at 1.3500 Heads up Remember guys this pair is heavily influenced by Oil so it is a more risky pair to trade but in terms of technicals it is a great setup :) Also my entry is very aggressive id recommend waiting for a strong bearish candle on the 4 Hour time frame to confirm more confluence and be a strong selling setup as it confirms our momentum which is bearish So id Recommend waiting but if your a risk taker like me join me lol ;) Only 65 pips Risk well worth the risk with a great Risk Reward of 1:6 :) Trade safe My entry 1.38897
Short
by ARFXC
38
Short On EUR/AUD SELL SELL SELL !!! Reasons For -Firstly after bouncing of 1.6000(Our key level) we have been very bearish as you can see -Also we have been putting in Lower Lows and Lower Highs -We have also cleared our key level at 1.55000 and have been putting in bearish movement -Now we are trading below 1.5500 the only smart thing to do is to sell as we can clearly see strength to the downside -The previous 4 Hour candle was a bearish hammer with a nice long wick showing us more sellers then Buyers -This candle which is just closing now is a big bearish candle which gives us more confidence that we are favouring the downside -On the four hour we are clearly downtrending so we will do the smart thing and go with the trend ... The Trend is your Friend ;) -We are also formed a head and shoulders and now we have broken the neck line this just adds to our confluences :) -We also have lots of long wicks to the upside which is a nice to help with which way price wants to go and whos in control Bears or Bulls and in this case the Bears are in control (Sellers) This pair on the 4 hour time frame is very bearish in my opinion On the daily Timeframe -We have a clear down trend forming Of our key level 1.6000 -the previous day candle stick was a nice big bearish candle -Todays candle is froming a nice long wicked bearish hammer :) And we can see clear waves being implemented -And the weekly we have had 3 non stop weeks of bearishness -Also on the weekly we have nice long wicks to the upside which is a nice little confluence :) All these factors put my bias at bearish My entry is 1.53056 GoodLuck to all trading this pair with me :) P.S I MAY CLOSE EARLY BEFORE THE NEWS AT 3;30 AM GMT !
Short
by ARFXC
25
Short on USD/JPY SELL SELL SELL !!! (Risky) Reasons for - Clearly price is putting in lower lows and lower highs (Clear Downtrend) - Price broke key level at 120.00 A week back so we maybe heading to next key level ? - Price has put 3 touch on short term 4 Hour trend line - Price put in doji the a bearish engulfing and clearly bearish candle then another bull green candle then another gearish engulfing so clear sign the sellers are in control at the moment pushing price down - We are creating a type of right angle triangle with key structure level (Meaning a strong push of the breakout will occur) - Daily - Previous daily candle was a bearish hammer - On the daily we are clearly down trending so we are following the trend (The trend is your friend) - We are also making lower swings - Price is trading bellow previous key level before cleared on the daily and weekly (A sign that we are looking to go to lower level if enough momentum) So all these confluences clearly show more potential to the downside therefore i will be entering My ENTRIE WAS 117.216
Short
by ARFXC
2
Short on US30 SELL SELL SELL !!!I personally have been short on this pair since December :) Okay some may see this as a crazy setup but i believe US30 setup will fall to around 7000 in the next year or so There are many reasons for this setup Fundamentals and technicals FUNDAMENTALS - jubilee year ? - shemitah Year ? - every 8 years a financial crisis - FED raising rates to signify economy in a recession - The possibility of QE4 ? - A possible world disaster ? i can keep going on in regards to such things but ill keep it short TECHNICALS - Price has hit a all time high and after the US30 booming for around 8 Years isit time for a change ? - Price found strong KEY LEVEL (RES) at 18000 - Price is now down trending - Price has put in lower high and lower lows - Price has broken many key Trendlines - Also price is on the verge of breaking a key level (SUP) at 16000 - If price breaks that key level we will possibly see a huge drop to the downside I can go on abit more too but i am sure you all get the idea i am portraying i do believe and confident of the drop too 8000/7000 :) so here we come 8000 POINTS PROFIT ;)
FX:US30Short
by ARFXC
12
SPX500 Massive Multi Year Head & Shoulders Top On The Final TurnI've been watching this massive multi year 'head & shoulders top' take shape since the bounce at 1833 in August, after that big reversal that forms the 'head' at 2137. After today's sell off it's bearish potential should be undeniable to most. Considering the massive amounts of credit that have fuelled this bubble the debt deflation that will force the coming sell off should nothing short of frightening. Trade carefully.
FX:SPX500
by UnknownUnicorn59736
4
AUD/JPY - To repeat the breakdown of 2007/2008? Time will tell!Summary: All signs are pointing to a significant breakdown in the AUD/JPY... Commodity currencies are under extreme pressure due to a global slowdown and suppressed commodity prices. In an extremely volatile and high risk market, investors will fly back into the Yen as a safe haven and dump commodity currencies. We also have upcoming rate cuts coming out of the RBA, as well as a housing bubble that is soon to pop. The crash in the Shanghai Index as well as slow growth out of China will put further pressure on the Australian Dollar. Technicals: We have broken a significant 7 year trend-line on the Quarterly + Monthly Charts indicating upcoming bearish pressure We are also resting within the 200/250 EMA's on the weekly chart. If we break below these EMA's, I believe the AUD/JPY will start to turn. Be on the lookout for a possible EMA Death Cross in the near future Looking at the daily, we are starting to put in lower highs and lower lows which may drive the AUD/JPY lower. This is something I will be keeping an eye on....
Short
by LoneWolfCapital
Return to the breakdown zoneIt's hard to define exact levels of resistance around this area, but we seem to have a descending wedge into strong support here in the $210s, which should result in snap back up for a correction. After that is anyone's guess, but I'm still leaning toward a long term bear market. Given the oversold condition, I would say a snap back to the $240s is likely. There was a good breakdown trade opportunity at $235, but I missed it. That said, I think there will be more shorting opportunities in the future. Volume is nothing spectacular at this moment, so we should see a break in the selling soon.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MoonTrader
11
AUDNZD DAILY SHORTIM ALREADY SHORT IN THIS PAIR BUT IF PRICE RETRACES AND TAKES ME OUT OF THE TRADE THEN THE NEXT LEVEL I'D LOOK TO SELL IS AT MY CLUSTER ZONE/SELL ZONE. IVE GOT LOADS OF CONFLUENCES AT THIS LEVEL WHICH ARE THE 0.5 AND 61.8 FIB, SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE STRUCTURE LEVEL, MAJOR TRENDLINE, DYNAMIC RESISTANCE (50 MA) AND A NICE PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUND NUMBER (1.03000). Another confluence is this trade setup is in line with the fundamentals because the RBA (reserve bank of Australia) said there is a possibly there could be another rate cut in the period ahead.
Short
by remelthomas
1
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART SHORTI'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD CURRENCY IS STILL OVERVALUED AND THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT SAID HE.LL LIKE TO SEE AUD REACH 0.75000 WHICH IS ADDED CONFLUENCE THAT ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL WE GET THERE. AUD IS DOVISH WHILE THE FED IS HAWKISH SO WE'VE GOT A GREAT DIVERGENCE ON THIS PAIR.
Short
by remelthomas
1